Kyrgyzstan Environment - The Times Of Central Asia

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Earthquakes

Central Asia Remains Highly Vulnerable to Major Earthquakes

Earthquakes accounted for more than half of all deaths linked to natural hazards worldwide between 2000 and 2023, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The agency warns that millions of people across its European Region still live or receive medical treatment in buildings that may not withstand a major seismic event. WHO has focused on hospitals because they must continue treating patients when injuries rise and local infrastructure is damaged. The agency estimates that earthquake-resistant standards add less than 4% to the cost of a new hospital, while retrofitting an existing facility typically costs about 1% of its value. Although WHO highlighted the danger facing Istanbul, the warning also applies to Central Asia. Nearly all of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan lie in areas of high seismic hazard, along with parts of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Recent tremors in Almaty have brought the issue back into public view. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, a magnitude-5.0 earthquake struck 74 kilometers northeast of the city on February 17, 2026. Residents left homes and offices, although no major damage was reported. Almaty introduced its Mass Alert system in May 2024 after an earlier earthquake caused panic across the city. Forty-four people sought medical treatment, most after being injured while leaving buildings. The system is connected to 28 seismic stations and sends warnings to mobile phones through cell towers. Up to 200 minor tremors are recorded each year within an 80-kilometer radius of Almaty. Approximately 30 tectonic faults run through the city and surrounding area. Experts estimate that an earthquake measuring 9-10 points in intensity could destroy as many as 30% of local buildings, given the density of high-rise construction in vulnerable foothill districts. A major earthquake could also interrupt hospital care without causing a building to collapse. Loss of electricity or water could halt surgery and emergency treatment, while blocked roads could prevent staff from reaching medical facilities. Kazakhstan resumed mandatory earthquake drills in Almaty after the strong tremors of 2024. Medical personnel have trained with rescue workers at emergency assembly points, and the military has practiced deploying mobile hospitals. The preparations reflect concern about the condition of older buildings and the rapid expansion of high-rise development. The densely populated Fergana Valley also poses a cross-border challenge because a single earthquake could affect communities in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Damage to roads or delays at border crossings could slow medical assistance when hospitals are under pressure. WHO recommends regular emergency exercises and medical teams that can continue operating when communications fail. Hospitals also need access to essential supplies if damaged transport routes delay deliveries. Central Asia's seismic history shows the possible scale of destruction. The 1911 Kemin earthquake, estimated at magnitude 8.2, destroyed hundreds of buildings in Verny, now Almaty. A magnitude-7.3 earthquake devastated Ashgabat in 1948, and the 1966 Tashkent earthquake left more than 300,000 people homeless. Those disasters occurred before much of the region's current urban growth. Dense construction has increased the number of people exposed to seismic...

Climate Policy

Kyrgyzstan Adopts Central Asia’s First Framework Climate Law

President Sadyr Japarov signed Kyrgyzstan’s Law on Climate Activity on July 7, giving the country Central Asia’s first framework statute devoted to climate policy. The Jogorku Kenesh (parliament) approved the measure on May 20, and it takes effect on January 1, 2027. The Cabinet has six months from official publication to bring existing regulations into line. The law puts emissions policy and climate adaptation under one legal structure. It covers climate finance, carbon neutrality, research, professional training and technology transfer. It also provides a legal base for carbon units and a national registry. Separate rules will govern how emission cuts are recorded and verified. UNDP gave technical and expert support during its preparation. The regional first refers to the breadth of the framework. Uzbekistan passed a law on limiting greenhouse gas emissions in July 2025, and Kazakhstan already regulates carbon inventories, quotas and emissions trading through its Environmental Code. Kyrgyzstan has now put mitigation and adaptation in one dedicated statute, with provisions for finance and institutional duties. The law replaces a narrower statute adopted in 2007. That measure governed greenhouse gas emissions and removals, with a focus on state regulation, inventories and monitoring. It did not create a full legal base for adaptation or climate finance, and lacked the new law’s provisions on climate technology and education. MP Zhyldyz Egenberdieva set out the case for reform at a parliamentary committee meeting in April. The existing law “does not reflect current realities or practice,” she said. The new statute gives public bodies a basis for climate policy and low-carbon development plans. It also brings resilience measures into the same system. Kyrgyzstan signed the Paris Agreement in September 2016 and ratified it on February 18, 2020. Japarov announced a 2050 carbon-neutrality goal at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021. The Cabinet approved a national carbon-neutrality concept in July 2025. The Coordination Council then approved updated climate targets and the country’s first biennial transparency report in September 2025. The law turns those international pledges and policy documents into a domestic framework. It defines state responsibilities and creates a base for climate finance. The practical detail will come through regulations, including standards for carbon accounting and the operation of a registry. The statute arrives as glacier loss puts pressure on water, farming and electricity supply. Mountain ice feeds rivers used for drinking water and irrigation. The same flows feed the country’s hydropower plants. At COP29 in Baku in November 2024, Japarov gave a stark figure. “Over the past 70 years, the area of glaciers in Kyrgyzstan has shrunk by 16%,” he said. TCA has previously reported on how continued glacier retreat could reduce river flows and deepen water shortages. Hydropower provides about 90% of Kyrgyzstan’s electricity, meaning drought and erratic runoff can cut generation when demand peaks. Floods and mudslides can damage roads and canals, as well as homes and crops. The law now makes adaptation a formal part of national climate policy. Coal-fired heating and traffic drive much of Bishkek’s severe winter smog. Vehicles...

Climate Change

Central Asia Disaster Risks Prompt Joint Mudflow and Flood Plan

Central Asian countries are working on a joint plan to reduce the damage caused by floods and mudflows, as officials and environmental specialists warn that natural disasters are costing the region around $10 billion a year. The proposed roadmap was discussed at a regional meeting in Bishkek on June 24-26, attended by representatives of all five Central Asian states, the World Bank, and several UN bodies. The plan focuses on transboundary mudflows and floods, where risks often cannot be managed by one country alone. According to Kazakhstan’s state broadcaster 24KZ, experts at the meeting said disaster-related losses in Central Asia could be reduced fivefold through stronger ecosystem protection and better regional coordination. The proposed measures include a shared online catalogue of current and forecast natural hazards, as well as an early-warning system for wildfires. The discussion comes after a sharp rise in mudflows in Kyrgyzstan. The country has recorded more than 240 mudflows since the start of 2026, already well above the 133 cases registered during the whole of 2024. Between June 19 and 21 alone, Kyrgyz authorities reported 66 mudflow and flooding incidents, with homes, farmland, roads, and other infrastructure damaged. The deadliest recent incident occurred on June 24, when a mudflow swept away a car on the Osh-Alay highway, killing six people. Emergency officials have said improved response work has helped reduce casualties compared with last year, but the scale of the damage remains severe. The draft regional roadmap is expected to set out priority protection measures and identify where investment is most urgently needed. It also proposes closer coordination between emergency agencies, which is particularly important in cross-border mountainous areas. Central Asia is highly exposed to natural hazards, including earthquakes and climate-related disasters. A World Bank blog has previously estimated that natural disasters cause about $10 billion in economic losses across the region each year. The Bishkek discussions also covered digital tools for monitoring and forecasting climate-related risks. Participants reviewed a shared regional database and an interactive platform intended to improve the exchange of information between national agencies. Kyrgyzstan’s mountainous geography makes it especially vulnerable, with officials noting that heavier and less predictable rainfall are compounding the problems. The World Bank-backed RESILAND CA+ program is already supporting work at 21 high-risk sites in four Kyrgyz regions, including the restoration of mudflow-protection infrastructure. The regional plan will not eliminate mudflows or floods, but its supporters argue that better forecasting, stronger protective infrastructure, and more coordinated land management could reduce the human and economic cost of disasters that are becoming harder to treat as purely national problems.

Water Security

Kyrgyzstan’s Water Compensation Push Tests Central Asian Unity

Central Asia’s water diplomacy is entering a contentious phase. Kyrgyzstan, where much of the region’s runoff is formed, is reviving calls for economic compensation from downstream users. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have rejected the idea, saying current agreements do not provide for payments for transboundary river water. The dispute comes as the region tries to maintain annual water-allocation deals while adapting agriculture to worsening scarcity and climate pressure. Water has long tied together the region’s upstream and downstream states. The 2021 and 2022 clashes on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border showed how disputes over land, border infrastructure, roads, security posts, and water access can escalate when local tensions are not contained. Yet political will alone does not guarantee agreements between countries. The Central Asian republics cooperate on water issues through two interstate bodies. One is the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, established in 1993 by all five Central Asian republics. Kyrgyzstan suspended its participation in IFAS in 2016, and now attends the fund’s meetings as an observer. The second body is the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination, whose meetings are held once a quarter. At its 93rd meeting in Bukhara in early April, the commission confirmed limits for water withdrawal from transboundary rivers, following decisions approved at the 92nd meeting in Dushanbe. For the Amu Darya, the 2026 water allocations set the total withdrawal limit for the water-management year from October 2025 to October 2026 at about 55.4 billion cubic meters. Of this, 15.9 billion cubic meters is allocated for the cold period, from October to April. Tajikistan has been allocated 9.8 billion cubic meters per year, while Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan each receive 22 billion. A significant part of the flow, 44 billion cubic meters, must pass through the adjusted section of the Kerki hydrological post, helping secure the lower reaches of the river. For the Syr Darya, the total water withdrawal limit for the non-growing season is 4.219 billion cubic meters. Kazakhstan will receive 460 million cubic meters through the Dustlik Canal, Kyrgyzstan 47 million, and Tajikistan 365 million, while the largest share will go to Uzbekistan, 3.347 billion cubic meters. The inherited framework is also facing pressure from outside the five-state system. Afghanistan’s Qosh-Tepa Canal, which is being advanced outside the Soviet-era allocation structure, has added uncertainty on the Amu Darya. The Central Asian republics also cooperate in bilateral and trilateral formats. In January, Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan joint working groups met in Turkestan. The sides reaffirmed water cooperation, agreed to continue repairs on the Dostyk canal, and planned automated hydrological posts on the Syr Darya. In May, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan agreed on the operating regime of the Bahri-Tojik Reservoir for the summer of 2026. From June to August, the reservoir is to operate in a coordinated mode to supply irrigation water to farmers in the Maktaaral and Zhetysai districts of southern Kazakhstan. These agreements show that regional mechanisms still work, but experts continue to warn that climate pressure, data gaps, and uneven national interests could overwhelm existing formats. “Forecasting the...

Water Security

New Study Finds Sharp Decline in Amu Darya Flows

Central Asia’s water woes continue to grow worse. The water flow in the Amu Darya, one of Central Asia’s two great rivers, is slowly but significantly diminishing in Tajikistan, where the river originates. A recently released report shows the Amu Darya’s water flow in the middle and lower reaches in Tajikistan has fallen over the course of recent decades by 54-77%. And the report lays the blame firmly on human activity, not climate change. Up In the Mountains of Tajikistan The study published on ScienceDirect looked at data collected over 90 years and concludes that “streamflow decreased by 54–77% in the middle and lower reaches” of the Amu Darya in Tajikistan. Interestingly, the report mentions that precipitation in the mountains of Tajikistan has actually increased between 6 and 13%, but the Amu Darya’s water level is falling because people are using more water. The expansion of agriculture is the reason, accounting for 92% of the water reduction in Tajikistan, but the recent construction of water reservoirs is also playing a role. Lower flows of water were noted on many of the tributaries in Tajikistan that feed into the Amu Darya, including the “Vakhsh, Kunduz, Kofirnihon, Surkhandarya, Zeravshan, and Kashkadarya (rivers),” which showed streamflow reductions of 4–34%. The report said that areas in the upper reaches of the Amu Darya should see increased water levels, but this is mainly due to climate change hastening the melting of snow and glaciers. Once the glaciers are gone, the water will rapidly decrease. Bad News Downstream Water problems upstream in Tajikistan translate to bigger problems downstream in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Both have already noticed a reduction in the amount of water in the Amu Darya, most visibly that the river has not reached the Aral Sea for about two decades now, contributing to the sea shrinking by some 90% since the 1960s. Every year the river recedes further south, forcing downstream communities suddenly without water to relocate. Climate change is now hastening this process in the arid, desert lands along the Uzbek-Turkmen border, but both countries are preparing for a bigger, impending shock. The Taliban started construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal in 2022, with the project scheduled to be completed in 2028. While Central Asia was liberally taking water from the Amu Darya for agricultural use, Afghanistan was in no position to claim its share until now. The canal will draw water from the Amu Darya at an area across from Uzbekistan and open up new agricultural land in northern Afghanistan, where food has long been in short supply. The 280-kilometer canal is expected to take some 16-20% of the water left in the Amu Darya after it leaves Tajikistan. Upstream Tajikistan’s falling water levels, of course, mean the Qosh Tepa Canal will also be receiving less and less water. The Combination For most of the 2020s, large areas of Central Asia have been experiencing droughts, prompting the governments there to implement water conservation measures. But as they find more ways to save...

Flood Risk

Tajikistan Warns of Mudslides as Central Asia Expands Flood Cooperation

Authorities in Tajikistan say heavy rain could trigger mudslides in parts of the country in the coming days and have warned people to be extremely careful when traveling on roads near mountains and riverbanks. The warning was issued on Wednesday, days after government officials, scientists, and other delegates from across Central Asia met in Bishkek to discuss ways to address cross-border mudflows and floods. The three-day meeting, which ended on Friday, was organized by Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Emergency Situations and the Regional Environmental Center for Central Asia, a group that gets support from the World Bank and other international partners. Mudslides and flooding often hit parts of Central Asia in the spring and early summer, when rainfall, rising temperatures, snow and glacier melt, and increasing water levels threaten communities that scientists say are more vulnerable because of climate change. In the spring of 2024, flooding in Kazakhstan displaced thousands of people and damaged many homes and other buildings in what the government called the worst natural disaster in the country in 80 years. Central Asian governments are increasing cooperation on mitigation measures, including early warning systems, data sharing, and other projects to better protect their populations. As temperatures rise faster in Central Asia than the global average, Tajikistan is especially vulnerable because it is a mountainous country where glacier melt is a growing concern. Heavy rains and mudslides are possible through Friday, July 3, in mountainous and hilly areas across the country, as well as in Sughd Region in northwest Tajikistan, which borders Uzbekistan, and in Khatlon Region in the southwest, which borders Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, Tajikistan’s Ministry of Transport said. Citing meteorological experts, the ministry also warned of dust storms in Khatlon and the capital, Dushanbe, because of strong winds blowing from the south. “As a result of rising temperatures, glacier melt, and increasing water levels in the Panj, Vakhsh, Varzob, and Zeravshan rivers, there is a risk of mudflows in these areas,” the ministry said. It added that it had “instructed all road maintenance departments and institutions to monitor the condition of highways around the clock.” The possibility of flooding from glacier melt and rising river levels is not only a problem in mountainous areas in upstream countries such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, but also in downstream countries, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, that rely on cross-border water supplies but are also vulnerable to natural disasters. Turkmenportal, an online news site, said the recent meeting in Kyrgyzstan on water cooperation in Central Asia was important to Turkmenistan because it “is located in the lower reaches of Central Asia's largest rivers and is directly dependent on the quality of transboundary cooperation in water management and flood risk reduction.”