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Regional Cooperation

Central Asia and Azerbaijan: What the Region’s Leaders Agreed at Issyk-Kul

The Kyrgyz resort town of Cholpon-Ata, on the shores of Lake Issyk-Kul, briefly became Central Asia’s political capital as it hosted a series of high-level meetings, including bilateral talks between the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, the state visit of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and the informal Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia and Azerbaijan. Only a few years ago, such a format would have seemed unlikely. Today, however, regional leaders are discussing joint railway projects, energy security, transport corridors, investment, and foreign-policy coordination rather than managing old disputes. The agreements reached in Cholpon-Ata suggest that the consultative format is gradually evolving from a platform for political dialogue into a mechanism for practical regional cooperation. From Conflict to Alliance Ahead of the informal multilateral meeting, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev held bilateral talks that set the tone for the broader regional meeting. Relations between the two countries now stand in sharp contrast to the situation sixteen years ago. Following the ethnic violence in southern Kyrgyzstan in June 2010, relations between Bishkek and Tashkent entered one of their most difficult periods since independence. The agenda between the two neighbors has since changed dramatically. Speaking in Cholpon-Ata, Mirziyoyev said relations between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan had reached “a historic peak.” Bilateral trade has increased almost tenfold in recent years, reaching $1.2 billion last year. The two countries now have around 450 joint ventures, operate a joint Development Fund to support cooperative projects, and have established 15 air routes and five bus services linking their cities. Mirziyoyev described the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway as one of the most important joint initiatives between the two countries, arguing that the project would reshape transport links across Eurasia. “This railway will fundamentally change the geopolitical landscape. Those who understand what it took to make this happen know what a major achievement it is,” Mirziyoyev said. The talks concluded with the signing of a Treaty on Allied Relations between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The two sides also exchanged several bilateral documents, including agreements covering sections of their common border and the joint use of the Chashma spring. A Broader Regional Agenda While the Japarov-Mirziyoyev talks focused primarily on bilateral relations, the informal Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia and Azerbaijan broadened the discussion to regional integration, transport connectivity, energy security, and foreign-policy coordination. Opening the meeting, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov said one of the clearest results of closer regional cooperation had been the Central Asian countries’ growing support for one another on the international stage. As an example, he cited the region’s joint support for Kyrgyzstan’s successful bid for a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council for the 2027-2028 term. Japarov also revived the idea of introducing a single tourist visa for foreign visitors traveling across Central Asia, proposing that the region’s foreign ministries intensify consultations on the initiative. Azerbaijan’s participation as a full member gave the meeting additional significance. Baku joined the consultative format as a...

Presidential Election

Kyrgyzstan Moves 2027 Presidential Election to January 27

President Sadyr Japarov has signed legislation changing the schedule for Kyrgyzstan's next presidential election. Under the amendments, the vote will be held on 27 January 2027, the fourth Wednesday of January, instead of the fourth Sunday of the month, as provided for under the previous legislation. The amendments also retain the requirement that the Jogorku Kenesh, Kyrgyzstan's parliament, must schedule the presidential election no later than four months before polling day. Election day will be a paid day off. According to the explanatory note accompanying the legislation, moving the vote from Sunday to a weekday is expected to encourage higher voter turnout. Lawmakers argue that participation in some local elections has remained low in recent years. This is the second change to Kyrgyzstan's presidential election timetable in less than a year and a half. In April 2025, the authorities moved the vote from October 2026 to January 2027 so Japarov could complete the six-year mandate he won in 2021. The parliamentary calendar was changed separately later that year to prevent the two nationwide campaigns from overlapping. Japarov has served as president since 28 January 2021. Earlier this year, the Constitutional Court ruled that his current six-year mandate counts as his first under the 2021 Constitution, leaving him eligible to seek a second five-year term in 2027. The parliamentary election calendar was revised separately. Early elections to the Jogorku Kenesh were held on 30 November 2025, allowing the parliamentary and presidential electoral cycles to be separated. The authorities said the snap parliamentary vote was intended to prevent the two nationwide campaigns from coinciding in 2027. Earlier, The Times of Central Asia reported that a Kyrgyz court had convicted former security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev, former parliamentary speaker Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu, and six others of plotting to overthrow the government. The case followed a February 2026 open letter calling for an early presidential election.

Climate Change

Kyrgyzstan Records 348 Mudflows in Six Months, Highest Total in Decades

Kyrgyzstan recorded 348 mudflows during the first half of 2026, the highest number in 30 to 40 years, according to the Ministry of Emergency Situations and Kyrgyzhydromet. These violent torrents of water, mud, and boulders killed eight people and injured three. Roads, villages, and critical infrastructure are concentrated in narrow mountain valleys. Each new debris flow can therefore threaten lives and isolate entire communities. A Rapidly Escalating Season The damage extends beyond the human toll. Authorities evacuated 236 people from hazardous areas, while mudflows damaged 668 hectares of farmland. Preliminary estimates place economic losses at 399 million soms (approximately $4,560,000). The scale of the crisis became apparent well before mid-summer. By late June, Kyrgyzstan had already recorded more than 240 mudflows. The first-half total of 348 was almost five times the roughly 70 recorded during the same period of 2025. The deadliest incident occurred on the Osh-Alay highway, where a powerful mudflow swept a vehicle from the road, killing six people. The Ministry of Emergency Situations identifies Batken, Jalal-Abad, Osh, and Talas regions as the country’s most vulnerable areas, where mudflows repeatedly destroy roads, bridges, and residential buildings. Why the Risk Is Increasing Officials link the surge to several overlapping factors, including intense local downpours and earlier snow and glacier melt. Settlement expansion into hazardous valleys and a shortage of protective structures have increased exposure. Pasture degradation and forest loss add to the danger. Rising temperatures are also transforming the Tian Shan as glaciers retreat and new high-altitude lakes emerge. Kyrgyzhydromet estimates that the area of Kyrgyzstan’s glaciers has declined by about 16% in recent decades. As glaciers shrink, newly formed alpine lakes become more vulnerable to overflowing or bursting during intense rainfall or rapid snow and ice melt. Such outbursts can generate destructive debris flows. The threat extends beyond mudflows. Officials warn that warming will also increase the risks posed by glacial-lake outbursts, landslides, and rockfalls. Strengthening Defenses Despite the record number of mudflows, the death toll remains significantly lower than in 2024, when such disasters claimed 25 lives. The Ministry of Emergency Situations attributes the improvement to earlier warnings, more effective evacuations, and expanded preventive measures in high-risk areas. Kyrgyzstan is also expanding its use of forecasting technologies. KG Labs, working with international partners, is developing an AI model to forecast glacial lake outburst floods in the Tian Shan. The work draws on a digital catalogue of Kyrgyzstan’s glaciers and is exploring affordable sensors for remote mountain areas with intermittent internet access. The Ministry of Emergency Situations already uses a separate AI-powered system to monitor high-altitude lakes and issue warnings. The Season Is Far From Over The figure of 348 covers only the first six months. In Kyrgyzstan, the period of highest risk typically lasts until autumn, meaning that mountain communities and transport corridors remain vulnerable for several more months. The events of 2026 illustrate how rapidly natural hazards are evolving. Retreating glaciers, the formation of new alpine lakes, and increasingly intense rainfall are changing the country’s risk...

Railway Infrastructure

Kyrgyzstan Opens New Railway as Japarov Alleges North-South Highway Embezzlement

Kyrgyzstan has opened a 63-kilometer railway between Balykchy and Kochkor, completing the first stage of a domestic route intended to reach the Kara-Keche coalfield and eventually connect the country’s divided rail network. President Sadyr Japarov travelled to the new Kochkor station by train on July 25. The line extends rail service from the western edge of Lake Issyk-Kul into Naryn Region, where difficult mountain terrain has long limited transport links. “We have revived the culture of railway construction, our engineering potential, and professional experience,” Japarov said. “This historic achievement proves that our country can independently carry out large infrastructure projects.” For the first three decades after independence, Kyrgyzstan laid no new railway track. Construction of the planned 186-kilometer Balykchy-Kochkor-Kara-Keche line began in March 2022. Japarov said crews carried out about one million cubic meters of blasting work and cleared eight kilometers through mountainous ground. The route also crosses wetland and rocky areas near the Orto-Tokoy reservoir, existing roads, and utility lines. According to Japarov, construction of the track cost $955,000 per kilometer, which he compared with offers from foreign companies ranging from $4.8 million to $6.8 million per kilometer. “We understood that this was too expensive, so we decided to take the risk and do the work ourselves,” he said. The $955,000 figure appears to cover the track itself rather than the full cost of the line. In June 2025, Kyrgyz Temir Jolu estimated the 63-kilometer project at 9.472 billion som, or about $108 million at the official exchange rate, roughly $1.72 million per kilometer. Japarov’s speech did not set out what work was included in the foreign proposals. The state railway financed the first stage from its own resources. An October 2025 cabinet decree allows Kyrgyz Temir Jolu to retain half the net profit it would otherwise pay into the state budget from 2026 through 2030, which can be used to fund the route to Makmal and the company’s wider development. Turning to the alternative North-South highway between Balykchy and Jalal-Abad, Japarov said its projected cost was $2.5 million per kilometer and alleged that “more than half” of this sum had been embezzled. He did not identify any company, official, or investigation supporting the claim. Questions over the highway’s costs predate Japarov’s accusation. A January 2023 Audit Chamber review found overstated work on the Aral-Kazarman section and said credit savings had been redirected contrary to the loan agreement. Three months later, local outlets cited security-service sources saying the GKNB had opened a case into suspected $123 million price inflation on the same section. No public outcome has been announced. Construction of the 433-kilometer highway began in 2014 and has suffered repeated delays. The route opened for seasonal traffic from June to November 2026, but the Transport Ministry expects year-round operation only in 2028 after further safety work. The new railway gives Kochkor a direct connection to Kyrgyzstan’s northern rail system. It does not yet join the country’s northern and southern lines. Before the opening, Kyrgyzstan’s railway network covered 425...

Extreme Heat

Extreme Heat Buckles Roads and Strains Power Grids Across Central Asia

Extreme heat across Central Asia in mid-July has buckled concrete highways, pushed electricity demand to record levels, and increased pressure on power grids and ambulance services. Kazakhstan reported road deformation and repeated failures in Almaty, Uzbekistan set consumption and generation records, Kyrgyzstan introduced temporary cuts to protect equipment, and residents in Tajikistan reported local disruptions. Temperatures above 40°C are common in parts of the region, but prolonged heat can strain several systems at once. Demand for cooling rises, road surfaces reach damaging temperatures, and health risks increase. The World Bank says much of Central Asia’s infrastructure was built in the mid-20th century and is overdue for renewal. Kazakhstan’s Roads and Power Networks Struggle Almaty recorded daily temperature highs on three consecutive days. The temperature reached 38°C on July 16, 39.2°C on July 17, and 40°C on July 18. The city’s July record remains 43.4°C, set in 1983. The heat also damaged Kazakhstan’s road network. KazAvtoZhol found temperature-related deformation on six highway sections in the Zhambyl, Pavlodar, and Turkestan regions. The national road operator said concrete surfaces can reach 60 to 70°C, and sometimes higher, during extreme weather. The resulting internal stress can deform concrete slabs. More than 50 workers repaired the affected sections, and traffic continued without restrictions. Road crews were monitoring more than 1,600 kilometers of concrete highway. Almaty’s ambulance service received more than 33,600 calls during the first two weeks of July. Medical officials said many involved sudden spikes in blood pressure and cardiovascular conditions, including coronary heart disease and acute heart attacks. Stroke patients were taken to hospital. Officials advised residents to avoid direct sunlight between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m., drink sufficient fluids, and seek medical help if their condition deteriorated. The city’s electricity network has faced record electricity demand between July 17 and 20 as residents increased their use of air conditioners and other appliances. The Alatau Zharyk Company said technical failures occurred in several districts, sometimes followed by faults on neighboring sections of the network. Thirty-five repair crews were deployed around the clock. The pressure extended beyond Almaty. Kazakhstan consumed 338.66 million kilowatt-hours of electricity on July 14, while domestic generation totaled 314.27 million kilowatt-hours, according to KOREM electricity data. Consumption also exceeded generation on each of the previous three days. Kazakhstan has historically covered such shortfalls through electricity imports, principally from Russia. Record Electricity Demand in Uzbekistan Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Energy warned on July 13 that daily electricity consumption could reach a summer record of 280 million kilowatt-hours, with peak demand rising to between 13 and 13.3 gigawatts. Demand subsequently exceeded that forecast. On July 18, consumption reached 294.4 million kilowatt-hours, 8% above the previous summer record. Peak evening demand rose to 13.7 gigawatts. Power plants produced a record 297.1 million kilowatt-hours on the same day. Despite the increase in production, technical faults caused temporary outages in several districts of Tashkent. At different times, the disruptions affected between several hundred and 2,700 consumers, according to the Ministry of Energy. Supplies were later restored....

External Debt

The Central Asia Debt Divide: Why the Region’s Borrowing Risks Are Not the Same

Central Asia’s biggest debtor is not necessarily its most vulnerable. Kazakhstan accounts for roughly two-thirds of the region’s external liabilities, but much of that debt sits on corporate balance sheets rather than the government’s. Tajikistan owes a fraction of the amount, yet remains at high risk of debt distress. The contrast highlights the Central Asia debt divide. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rely more heavily on sovereign and concessional borrowing, while Uzbekistan’s external liabilities are now split almost evenly between the public and corporate sectors. Based on the latest available figures from national authorities and international financial institutions, the combined external debt of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan approached $275 billion in early 2026. Turkmenistan has not been included in the estimate because the country does not publish comprehensive official external debt statistics that can be directly compared with those of its regional neighbors. The total is an approximate calculation compiled from national statistics rather than a regional aggregate published by a single institution. The countries also release their debt data for different reporting dates and use different classifications, requiring caution when making direct comparisons. Total external debt includes obligations owed to non-residents by governments, central banks, commercial banks, private companies, and, in some countries, local subsidiaries of foreign corporations. Government external debt is a narrower measure covering liabilities that are directly serviced or guaranteed by the state. China remains an important bilateral creditor, particularly in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, while multilateral institutions provide much of the region’s infrastructure and public-sector financing. Kyrgyzstan: Rising Debt, but a Broader Creditor Base Kyrgyzstan’s public debt has risen alongside increased infrastructure spending and domestic borrowing, although its creditor base has become more diversified. A smaller share is now owed to a single bilateral lender, while multilateral financing and the domestic securities market have grown in importance. According to the Kyrgyz Ministry of Finance’s public debt data, the country’s total public debt stood at approximately $8.94 billion as of May 31, 2026, including around $6.1 billion in external obligations. The debt debate has also become part of President Sadyr Japarov’s broader economic narrative. In an interview with the Kabar national news agency published on October 8, 2025, Japarov said his government was continuing to borrow but argued that new loans were being directed toward commercial projects expected to repay their own financing rather than place an additional burden on the state budget. He also said Kyrgyzstan intended to repay its older debts by 2035. The International Monetary Fund said in its 2026 Article IV consultation that Kyrgyzstan had recorded strong economic growth for a fourth consecutive year, giving the authorities an opportunity to strengthen fiscal buffers and accelerate structural reforms. It also warned that the outlook remained exposed to significant downside risks. Kazakhstan: A Large External Debt, but a Different Risk Profile Kazakhstan accounts for the largest share of Central Asia’s external debt, but its headline figure can be misleading. Unlike several of its neighbors, the country’s external liabilities are dominated by corporate and intercompany borrowing rather...