Kyrgyzstan Features - The Times Of Central Asia

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Economic Growth

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth: Government Targets 8% Annually

Kyrgyzstan has set a target of average annual real GDP growth of at least 8% and a 20% annual increase in foreign direct investment inflows through the end of 2030. Bishkek aims to achieve these goals by developing export-oriented industries, expanding transport routes, and attracting international capital. While recent international forecasts suggest growth could exceed 8% this year, sustaining that pace through 2030 remains a challenge. The government outlined the priorities at a meeting in Bishkek on October 21. Its plans include expanding production of export goods, modernizing trade and customs procedures, strengthening private property protections, and improving businesses' access to long-term financing. Positive Momentum Set to Continue The targets are set out in the National Development Program through 2030, adopted in June 2025. The program calls for nominal GDP to reach at least $30 billion and GDP per capita to rise to $4,500. International forecasts suggest Kyrgyzstan's economy will maintain strong growth in the near term, although a slowdown is expected. Following 11.1% growth in 2025, the IMF forecasts 9% growth in 2026 and 7% in 2027, while the World Bank projects 9.6% growth this year. However, both institutions have highlighted risks to the country's economic momentum, including a potential slowdown in re-export trade, weaker growth in Russia and China, rising energy prices, and tighter sanctions restrictions. To maintain rapid growth, Bishkek intends to support food processing, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, light manufacturing, machinery production, and mineral processing. The goal is to increase exports of domestically produced goods. Infrastructure-led Growth One of the country's largest infrastructure projects remains the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway. Construction began in December 2024, with completion scheduled for 2030. The project is estimated to cost $4.7 billion, including $2.3 billion in loans from Chinese banks. China holds a 51% stake in the joint project company, while Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan each own 24.5%. The railway is expected to give Kyrgyzstan its first direct rail link to China and provide Uzbekistan with an alternative route to the Chinese market. For Bishkek, it offers an opportunity to generate transit revenue and develop logistics centers. However, the route's commercial viability will depend on freight volumes, tariffs, and the efficiency of border crossings. Another major project is the Kambarata-1 hydropower plant, which Kyrgyzstan is advancing jointly with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Additional electricity generation capacity is needed, among other purposes, to support industrial expansion. On October 14, Kyrgyzstan's ambassador to Switzerland presented both projects to potential investors in Geneva. Bishkek also plans to encourage state-owned companies to issue Eurobonds, expand long-term financing through state banks, and develop the Tamchy special financial and investment zone to attract international capital. Logistics, information technology, tourism, and financial services have been identified as promising sectors. Risks At the same time, Kyrgyzstan's close economic ties with Russia create additional risks for its banking sector and foreign trade. The IMF has warned that exposure to international sanctions and weaknesses in financial oversight could disrupt banking relationships and cross-border trade. A further challenge is ensuring that major infrastructure projects benefit the wider...

Start-ups

Maksim Stepanenko’s Path from Kyrgyzstan to Silicon Valley

Maksim Stepanenko’s career has taken him from Aydarken in southern Kyrgyzstan to Silicon Valley. After co-founding Operator, an artificial intelligence startup acquired by OpenAI, he chose to step away rather than join the buyer. Stepanenko told The Times of Central Asia that he is now taking time off and working on new projects. From Aydarken to MIT Stepanenko was born in Aydarken, in Kyrgyzstan’s Batken region. Before entering university, he represented the country at the International Physics Olympiad. He received an honorable mention in Singapore in 2006, a silver medal in Iran in 2007, and a bronze in Vietnam in 2008. His route to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology was not immediate. After his first application was unsuccessful, he spent almost a year studying in Germany before entering MIT in 2009 to study computer science. While there, he worked as an undergraduate research assistant at the MIT Media Lab. Early Engineering Roles Stepanenko graduated in 2012. His early experience included two summer internships at Google and a role as one of the first software engineers at Locu, a startup founded by MIT graduates. Locu helped local businesses manage their online listings. A business could update its information once and distribute the changes across services including Yelp and Facebook. GoDaddy acquired the company in August 2013 for a reported $70 million. In 2014, Stepanenko joined cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase as employee number 21. Over five years, his work included Coinbase Commerce and the USDC stablecoin, as well as Coinbase Ventures. “I graduated in 2012 and moved to [San Francisco] to work here, at a different startup. Around 2013-2014, I started spending more and more time on crypto – Bitcoin Talk was the popular forum at the time. I was finding it more and more interesting. And then, at some point, I decided I wanted to explore working full-time in this space. At that time, there wasn't really any legitimate company in the space. Coinbase was the only company that was already relatively well known, at least here in Silicon Valley. So, I ended up joining Coinbase,” Stepanenko previously told Compound. Co-Founding Primer In 2019, On Deck’s Erik Torenberg introduced Stepanenko to Ryan Delk. The two co-founded Primer, an education startup offering online learning activities and, later, small in-person schools. [caption id="attachment_59010" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] Ryan Delk (left) and Maksim Stepanenko (right)[/caption] Primer initially focused on homeschooling. During the COVID-19 pandemic, it developed online clubs where children could pursue shared interests and work together on projects. The company later allowed children to create and run their own clubs. It then developed microschools, combining small groups of students with in-person instruction and digital learning tools. The company’s history records expansion to Alabama in 2025 and Texas in 2026. Primer raised a $3.7 million seed round in 2020, led by Founders Fund. In April 2022, it announced a further $15 million round, led by Founders Fund and co-led by Khosla Ventures. Stepanenko left Primer in November 2022. “I decided to step away from the company after...

C5+1

Central Asian States Set Out Priorities After Rubio Talks in Samarkand

Central Asian governments backed closer cooperation on mineral processing and transport at the October 19 C5+1 meeting in Samarkand. Separate talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio covered possible aircraft purchases for Kyrgyzstan and further diplomatic engagement with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Uzbekistan announced a $12 billion package of agreements and prospective initiatives during the visit. For the other four Central Asian participants, the published accounts centered largely on cooperation priorities and follow-up discussions. The gathering followed the November 2025 White House summit and accompanied Uzbekistan’s signing of the Artemis Accords. It brought Rubio together with all five Central Asian foreign ministers, combining regional discussions with separate bilateral meetings. Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tileuberdi discussed implementation of earlier presidential agreements with Rubio. The talks addressed attracting American investment and technology, with energy and critical minerals among the priorities. Washington also expressed interest in cooperation on artificial intelligence and communications infrastructure. According to Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry, Rubio expressed interest in visiting Kazakhstan after the December G20 summit in Miami. Kyrgyzstan’s talks included immediate obstacles to closer relations. Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev raised sanctions policy and visa restrictions with Rubio, alongside opportunities for American investment. The Kyrgyz side sought solutions that would facilitate educational and business exchanges. Presidential special representative Bakyt Sydykov briefed the U.S. delegation on Kyrgyzstan’s sanctions-related efforts, with Bishkek reaffirming its willingness to work with Washington to prevent sanctions circumvention. In a separate meeting, Kulubaev discussed possible Boeing aircraft deliveries to Kyrgyz airlines with company vice president Michael Schnabel. Financing options included possible involvement by the U.S. Export-Import Bank. The discussions also covered aircraft maintenance and aviation infrastructure. Tajikistan’s Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin discussed expanding trade and investment with Rubio. The ministry’s account also described an exchange on regional security and stability in Central Asia. Turkmenistan reported a more specific diplomatic follow-up. Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov and Rubio outlined a schedule of further meetings and political consultations. U.S. special envoy Sergio Gor also attended the talks. The shared C5+1 statement set out the broader economic agenda. The six governments supported further development of the Trans-Caspian Trade Route and more closely aligned customs procedures. They also backed stronger industrial cooperation within Central Asia. On minerals, the statement envisaged expanded extraction and processing, alongside more production of higher-value goods within the region. It also supported exchanging expertise on geological data. These were collective policy intentions, without country-by-country financing allocations or project completion dates. Security commitments covered stronger border protection and counterterrorism cooperation, alongside efforts against transnational crime. The governments also supported practical cooperation on nuclear security and the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

C5+1

Uzbekistan Signs Space Accords as Rubio Opens Samarkand Talks

Uzbekistan joined the U.S.-led Artemis Accords on October 19 as Secretary of State Marco Rubio held talks in Samarkand. The signing accompanied the first Enhanced Strategic Partnership Dialogue between the two countries, with critical minerals among the priorities. Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov announced the signing after bilateral talks with Rubio. He said Uzbekistan had become the 77th country to join the framework for peaceful space exploration. Saidov said accession would support closer cooperation with NASA and other participating space agencies. He identified training for Uzbek specialists and access to space technologies as potential benefits. Established in 2020, the Artemis Accords set out principles for civilian space exploration. Signatories commit to peaceful operations and greater transparency, including sharing scientific data. The framework also addresses interference between missions and the preservation of historic sites in space. NASA describes the accords as nonbinding principles. Posting on X, Rubio confirmed he had met all five Central Asian foreign ministers during the C5+1 gathering. He said cooperation would expand commercial opportunities and strengthen regional security. American businesses also joined the visit as Washington seeks deeper economic ties across Central Asia. The visit follows the November 2025 White House summit, where Trump hosted all five Central Asian presidents. That meeting gave the partnership a stronger commercial focus, with aircraft orders and minerals projects featuring prominently. Samarkand brings ministers and businesses together to advance that agenda. The strategic dialogue focused on implementing agreements reached by the countries’ leaders and expanding economic cooperation. Saidov said the discussions covered energy and advanced technologies, alongside critical minerals. Education and security cooperation were also on the agenda. Rubio said separately that the talks addressed infrastructure and space cooperation, as well as engagement through C5+1, which brings together the United States and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. In a separate meeting with Kazakh Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tileuberdi, Rubio reaffirmed plans to expand economic and security cooperation. He thanked Kazakhstan for supporting “President Trump’s peace initiatives, including the Abraham Accords.” Speaking to reporters in Samarkand, Rubio said nearly 300 American businesses were represented, and that agreements potentially worth billions of dollars were under discussion. He presented the visit as the start of deeper U.S. economic engagement with Central Asia. “I think we’ll have some concrete deals to announce,” he said, according to Euronews. A final list of agreements and their value had not been circulated at the time of those remarks. Rubio identified critical minerals as a priority, arguing that concentrated supplies created risks for countries dependent on them. "This is not about coming here to say, stop talking to somebody else or stop working with some other country," he said. Days earlier, at the October 15 summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia in Baku, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed a transport strategy spanning several international initiatives. His proposal included China’s Belt and Road and the planned Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) through Armenia. It illustrated the region’s pursuit of transport links involving...

Air Pollution

Air Pollution in Central Asia: Why Winter Smog Persists in Almaty, Bishkek, and Tashkent

Almaty is investing 325.9 billion tenge (about $720 million) in converting a coal-fired power plant to natural gas, but the plant will continue burning coal for several more years. Bishkek is restricting certain types of coal while maintaining supplies of permitted fuel for winter. Tashkent reported lower pollution over much of the year, though early October brought a sharp increase in harmful particles. Across these three Central Asian cities, winter smog remains a problem as the heating season begins. According to World Bank estimates, concentrations of fine particulate matter, known as PM2.5, in major Central Asian cities frequently exceed World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines by six to twelve times, particularly in winter. PM2.5 particles can penetrate deep into the lungs and increase the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. During colder months, emissions from heating and transportation accumulate near the ground. When winds are weak and temperature inversions occur, polluted air can remain trapped over a city for several days. Almaty: Gas Conversion, Coal Remains Almaty's heating season began on October 9, with schools and hospitals connected first, followed by residential buildings on October 10. By then, the modernization of CHP-2, the city's largest coal-fired heating plant and one of its biggest sources of industrial emissions, had yet to be completed. According to project estimates, converting the plant to natural gas should reduce annual emissions of harmful substances from 37,300 tons to 2,700 tons. However, those reductions will not be achieved immediately after the new equipment begins operating. Environmental assessment documents cited by Kursiv indicate that coal-fired boilers and turbines will continue operating alongside gas-fired units in 2027–2029 during commissioning and periods of peak winter demand. The documents also envisage keeping coal-fired equipment in operation into the 2030s to safeguard energy supplies in case of gas shortages. Vehicle exhaust is another major problem for Almaty. In April, the city introduced a pilot low-emission zone (LEZ) in its center. Until the end of the year, the zone is operating without entry fees, fines, or traffic restrictions. Separately, citywide emissions checks have been underway since the beginning of 2026. By late August, inspectors had tested 5,496 vehicles and found 1,301 exceeding emissions limits, nearly a quarter of those checked. Violations detected during citywide inspections can result in penalties. Bishkek: Coal Restrictions, but No Easy Alternative In Bishkek, the main cause of winter smog is heating in private homes. Residential heating accounts for approximately 29% of air pollution, transportation for 27%, and dust for 21%. Combined emissions from the main thermal power plant and smaller boiler houses account for 11%, according to international research cited by the city administration. In October 2025, the municipal authorities imposed restrictions on the sale, storage, and use of fine coal in Bishkek. They also stepped up inspections targeting waste burning and began converting some boiler houses to cleaner fuels. On October 1, 2026, the mayor's office announced plans to maintain adequate supplies of coal meeting quality standards at fuel depots across the city. For many private residents,...

Podcast

Pannier and Hillard’s Spotlight on Central Asia: New Episode Out Now

As Managing Editor of The Times of Central Asia, I’m delighted that, in partnership with the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, we are the home of the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast. Chaired by seasoned broadcasters Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL’s long-running Majlis podcast and Michael Hillard of The Red Line, each fortnightly instalment will take you on a deep dive into the latest news, developments, security issues, and social trends across an increasingly pivotal region. This week, the team looks at Kyrgyzstan unveiling plans that would require religious bloggers to be licensed and subjected to greater state oversight; further changes to the country's regional security leadership; one of the Central Asian states launching its first satellite into space; and a new round of CSTO military exercises in Russia that could have some troubling implications for the region. We'll also be looking at Turkmenistan marking 35 years of independence with a massive military parade showcasing a range of new weapons systems, as well as a week of blackouts hitting one of Central Asia's key cities. From there, we turn to our main story this week, where we'll be joined by two experts from the World Bank to discuss a major new report examining some of the biggest economic bottlenecks facing Central Asia, where those constraints are emerging, and what governments across the region will need to do to overcome them. Special guests: - Muneeza Alam (World Bank) - Luis Blancas (World Bank)