C5+1 - The Times Of Central Asia

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Middle Powers

Opinion: Middle Powers and the “Voice of the Region” – Is Central Asia Becoming a Coordinated Actor?

Against the backdrop of growing global fragmentation and the weakening of universal international institutions, the role of so-called middle powers is increasing. These are states able to influence regional agendas without possessing great-power status. In this changing system, Central Asia is gradually moving beyond its long-standing image as a geopolitical periphery and is beginning to act more like a region with shared interests. For decades, the region was viewed mainly as a space where the interests of external powers, including Russia, China, the U.S., and others, intersected. Today, that paradigm is beginning to shift. Central Asia is showing greater signs of agency through what may be described as a cluster effect: individually, the countries have limited influence, but collectively they form an important transit hub between Europe and Asia, a growing market, a significant resource base, and a strategic security zone. This creates the conditions for a more coordinated regional position, even if a single regional voice is still emerging rather than fully formed. C5+Azerbaijan as a Foundation for Regional Architecture The institutional foundation of this process is the Central Asian leaders' consultative format, which is now expanding through Azerbaijan's participation. That is turning what was once a C5 dialogue into a looser C5+Azerbaijan, or C6, framework focused on transport, energy, and practical cooperation. Within this framework, the countries of the region are learning to act in a more coordinated manner without supranational pressure. In practice, this process is developing through three main areas. The first is transport and logistics. Azerbaijan's participation has strengthened efforts to make the Middle Corridor more coherent, though the route still faces bottlenecks in capacity, customs coordination, and Caspian crossings. Through tariff coordination, simplified border procedures, and investment in port and rail infrastructure, Central Asia and the Caucasus are increasingly functioning as parts of a single transport artery. That gives the region a faster option for cargo between China and Europe, even if it remains far smaller than traditional maritime routes. Shipping goods via the Suez Canal or the northern route can take between 35 and 45 days, whereas the Middle Corridor can reduce transit times to around 13-21 days under favorable conditions. According to forecasts cited by BCG, shipping volumes along the route could increase three- to fourfold during the current decade. Beyond logistics, the project is creating a new economic framework for the region. Its status as a crossroads is attracting investment in transport hubs and manufacturing facilities along the route, with the potential to turn transit corridors into zones of economic growth. This gives participating countries not only transit revenue but a stronger basis for long-term strategic resilience. The second major area is energy integration, where historical disputes over water and fuel resources are increasingly being supplemented by models of joint development. The Kambarata HPP-1 hydropower project in Kyrgyzstan, being developed with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, has created an important precedent for shared management of water and energy interests. The project is expected to support cleaner electricity generation while helping stabilize irrigation flows...

Mining

Astana Mining Congress to Highlight Kazakhstan’s Role in Critical Minerals

The 16th International Mining and Metallurgy Congress and Exhibition, Astana Mining & Metallurgy (AMM) 2026, will take place on June 11-12 at the Hilton Astana, bringing together mining and metals companies, investors, technology suppliers, government officials, and industry experts. The forum comes as Kazakhstan is trying to strengthen its position in the global critical minerals race. The country already has a large extractive base, but officials and industry groups are increasingly focused on processing, technology, and investment partnerships rather than raw-material exports alone. Kazakhstan’s appeal lies not only in the size of its mineral base, but also in the timing. The U.S. Department of Commerce says the country has substantial reserves of rare earth elements, copper, lithium, tungsten, tantalum, and other materials used in clean energy, advanced manufacturing, and defense technologies. The European Union has also signed a strategic partnership with Kazakhstan on raw materials, batteries, and renewable hydrogen, underscoring Astana’s growing role in efforts to diversify supply chains away from dominant producers. According to Kazakhstan's Bureau of National Statistics, the country's industrial production index reached 107.5% in 2025. Mining and quarrying grew by 9.4%, driven by higher production of coal, crude oil, natural gas, and other minerals. Organizers said the wider mining and metallurgical complex, including related industries such as mechanical engineering, logistics, energy, and industrial services, may account for up to a quarter of Kazakhstan's economy. Against that backdrop, they said the sector needs new investment, technological solutions, and expanded international partnerships. Alongside the congress, an international specialized exhibition dedicated to mining and metallurgical technologies will be held. The exhibition will feature solutions for geological exploration, extraction and processing of raw materials, industrial automation, and workplace safety. Companies from Germany, Kazakhstan, Canada, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Finland, France, the Czech Republic, and Sweden are expected to participate. National delegations from Canada, Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Sweden are also expected to attend. Among the new participants announced by organizers are INCO Engineering, ABP Engineering, David Brown Santasalo, and Actuator Service. Last year's event attracted about 2,900 industry professionals, while 50 companies participated in the exhibition. The business program will be held under the slogan “From the Depths of the Earth to the Heights of Intelligence,” with a focus on digitalization and technological transformation in the industry. The first day will include a plenary session on global partnerships in mining and metallurgy, as well as panel discussions on international metals trade, the investment climate, taxation, and critical minerals. Particular attention will be paid to copper's role as a strategic metal. Copper is central to electrification, grid expansion, and data infrastructure, making it one of the metals most closely tied to the energy transition. The critical minerals component gives the event a wider geopolitical significance. Kazakhstan's Foreign Ministry said in April that Astana had invited the U.S. Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Jacob Helberg to participate in AMM and the first C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue, both scheduled for June in Astana. The C5+1 format brings together the...

U.S.-Kazakhstan Relations

Rubio Meeting Highlights Kazakhstan’s Growing U.S. Agenda

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s April 15 meeting with senior Kazakh officials in Washington gave fresh visibility to a relationship that both sides increasingly frame in economic as well as diplomatic terms. At a time when Washington is trying to give its Central Asia policy more practical shape, Kazakhstan is a key U.S. partner in the region. Rubio met President Tokayev’s Special Representative for Negotiations with the United States, Erzhan Kazykhan, and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy, Serik Zhumangarin. The talks covered ways to expand economic ties between the United States and Kazakhstan, as well as Kazakhstan’s role in peacemaking and regional initiatives. Rubio also welcomed Kazakhstan’s participation in the C5+1 platform and reaffirmed U.S. support for the country’s “sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity.” In a post on X, Rubio said the talks focused on strengthening commercial ties and advancing regional cooperation. That language put trade, investment, and regional economic coordination at the center of the meeting. Launched in 2015, the C5+1 began as a diplomatic framework linking the United States and the five Central Asian states. It later broadened into a more structured platform, with working groups on trade, energy, and the environment, and with growing emphasis on logistics, diversification, supply chains, and investment. The rise of the B5+1 reinforced that shift by giving business a more formal place in the relationship. By late 2025, the format placed more emphasis on deliverables, including infrastructure, funding mechanisms, and cooperation on mineral processing and research. That shift has also been visible in Kazakhstan’s own dealings with Washington. During President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to the United States in November 2025, the Kazakh delegation signed 29 bilateral agreements worth about $17 billion, including a memorandum on critical minerals cooperation and major commercial deals in aviation, agriculture, and mining. The same visit underlined how closely economic diplomacy and strategic supply concerns are now tied together. Kazakhstan has attracted roughly $100 billion in cumulative U.S. investment since independence, and critical minerals have moved closer to the center of the relationship as Washington looks for secure supply chains beyond China and Russia. Kazakhstan has attracted over $151 billion in net foreign direct investment since independence. Rubio’s talks with Zhumangarin and Kazykhan came after months of stronger U.S.-Kazakhstan economic contact. Kazakhstan has a larger economic profile than any other Central Asian state, and its role in energy, critical minerals, investment, and transit gives it a prominent place in Washington’s regional thinking. That makes Astana a natural focus for any U.S. push to deepen commercial ties in Central Asia. The sovereignty language in the U.S. readout was also not incidental. For Kazakhstan, public backing from Washington on sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity carries political weight in a region where questions of borders, pressure, and strategic dependence remain sensitive. Astana’s multi-vector foreign policy is built on preserving room for maneuver among larger powers. High-level engagement in Washington supports that strategy and signals that closer U.S. ties can sit alongside Kazakhstan’s broader balancing act. The Washington...

U.S.-Uzbekistan Partnership

Modernization Without Dependence: Why Uzbekistan Is Deepening Ties with Washington

The recent rise in Uzbekistan-U.S. engagement is often framed as a sudden diplomatic turn, and much of the commentary has focused on what Washington hopes to gain from deeper involvement in Central Asia. Far less attention, however, has been given to what Tashkent is seeking from this relationship. From Uzbekistan’s perspective, this engagement is part of a broader national strategy to expand the country’s foreign policy options at a time when all of the major powers are competing for influence in Central Asia. In November 2025, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev joined the other C5 leaders in Washington for a White House summit focused on economic cooperation, critical minerals, energy, and trade. By February 2026, the relationship had moved beyond talks and into financing and project design, with new agreements involving the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and EXIM, alongside a new critical minerals framework. From Uzbekistan’s side, the core objective is straightforward. Tashkent wants to modernize rapidly without risking becoming overdependent on any single external investor. That means using U.S. interest as leverage and in tandem with, not as a replacement for ties with Russia or China. Washington is courting the region because it wants access to minerals and supply chains that reduce reliance on China and limit exposure to sanctioned or geopolitically sensitive suppliers. Uzbekistan is well aware of this and is using that demand to strengthen its bargaining position for financing, technology, and industrial upgrading. In other words, Uzbekistan is positioning itself as a strategic production and transit partner. The direction of cooperation is revealing. The February 2026 U.S.-Uzbekistan critical minerals pact prioritizes the full-value chain from exploration and extraction to processing, and even proposes a joint investment holding company. This signals that Tashkent is aiming beyond raw-material exports. It wants to break from the post-Soviet pattern of shipping resources while others capture refining, technology, and margins. If it can secure processing capacity, infrastructure, and long-term financing, the deal becomes an instrument of industrial policy. The second objective is finance and implementation capacity. President Mirziyoyev also held separate bilateral meetings with the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, and other senior U.S. trade officials. The meetings focused on an investment platform, business council coordination, and support for large industrial and infrastructure projects. EXIM also publicly described the new framework as a way to convert earlier commitments into financing solutions for energy, aviation, critical minerals, and advanced technologies. The third objective is trade normalization and market access. A bipartisan Senate effort has introduced legislation to repeal Jackson-Vanik restrictions for Central Asian states, and President Mirziyoyev raised U.S. support for Uzbekistan’s WTO accession and stronger cooperation under the U.S.–Central Asia Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA). These measures shape the legal and trade environment that ultimately determines investor confidence. Uzbekistan is trying to make the relationship durable by embedding it in institutions. The move also serves a domestic political economy logic. President Mirziyoyev’s government has spent years presenting itself as reformist, investment-friendly, and open for business. Deeper engagement with the United...

U.S.-Central Asia Engagement

Breaking into Project Vault: A U.S. Role for Central Asia’s Strategic Minerals

The Trump Administration has decided to go head-to-head with Beijing to secure an independent supply chain for critical minerals and insulate U.S. industries from supply shocks. Among many initiatives, the United States launched Project Vault on February 2 to establish a U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve. The public-private stockpile is expected to secure essential minerals and metals for U.S. national security purposes and high-technology industries. The effort formalizes the U.S. strategy to diversify critical mineral supply chains away from rival China and, in the process, harness broader global capacity. As part of this effort, mineral-rich Central Asia is already factoring heavily in U.S. foreign and economic policy thinking. Participating in the front row of the 2026 Critical Minerals Summit, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan were invited to engage in Washington’s global effort to build resilient global supply chains. But Project Vault is a critical and separate component of the administration’s focus. Formally approved by the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) on February 2, Project Vault will be backed with up to $10 billion in long-term financing and an additional $2 billion in private sector participation. In sites across the country, the initiative will establish stores of critical minerals and rare earth elements essential for aerospace, defense, semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, renewables, and electric vehicles. The stockpile’s structure will be operated as a public-private partnership that enables manufacturers, trading firms, and private capital providers to jointly participate. Rare earths, copper, lithium, titanium, scandium, gallium, and germanium are all key minerals highlighted by the U.S. Department of the Interior that underpin modern technologies and demonstrate U.S. vulnerability to supply chain disruptions. Why a Strategic Mineral Reserve? The initiative is a direct response to perceived risks posed by China’s relative control of global critical mineral supply chains and markets, as well as Beijing’s use of trade restrictions, protectionism, and the weaponization of access to certain critical minerals. China controls a commanding share of the mining, refining, and processing of rare earths and related materials. Due to years of strategic planning and investment, Beijing has leveraged state subsidies and pricing controls to develop and secure between 80%-100% of rare earth processing capacities that have dominated international markets and disincentivized competitors for decades. Past export controls and export-license restrictions imposed by Beijing have underscored how critical mineral supply can become a tool of geopolitical leverage. China has at times restricted rare earth exports to Japan, Sweden and the United States in what is defined by many as supply-chain protectionism. Such actions can disrupt U.S. production for industries that rely on stable supplies to manufacture semiconductors, defense systems, and clean energy technologies. Project Vault is, therefore, conceived not merely as a reserve but as a mechanism to stabilize U.S. markets, to reduce reliance on China, and to signal a long-term commitment to diversified supply chains. Much like the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve acts to cushion energy price shocks, the mineral reserve is expected to serve as a similar buffer. Operational and Financial Dimensions Project Vault’s financing model expects a...

B5+1

B5+1 Forum Opens as U.S. Companies Expand Economic Footprint in Central Asia

Business leaders and government officials from Central Asia and the United States gathered in Kyrgyzstan’s capital on February 4 for the start of the second B5+1 Business Forum. Co-organized by the Kyrgyz government and the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), the event is intended to bring together private companies, business associations, officials, and experts interested in expanding U.S.–Central Asia commercial ties. More than 50 U.S. companies are participating in the event. The B5+1 is the business-track counterpart to the C5+1 diplomatic format that links the United States with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The B5+1 brings companies and policymakers together to identify barriers to investment and propose cross-border regulatory changes. This week’s meeting in Bishkek follows the inaugural B5+1 forum held in Almaty on March 14–15, 2024, which drew more than 250 stakeholders from across Central Asia and the United States. It produced 21 private-sector recommendations aimed at easing trade, improving regulations, and building regional economic integration. The Bishkek agenda is built around reviewing progress on those recommendations and setting priorities for the next phase of work. Central Asian officials have used the event to signal interest in region-wide coordination rather than country-by-country deals. In comments made in Bishkek, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Industry and Construction, Ersaiyn Nagaspaev, emphasized that foreign investors increasingly assess Central Asia as a single market, reflecting a push to align regulations and investment conditions across borders. Nagaspaev noted that more than 600 U.S. companies currently operate in Kazakhstan. Kyrgyzstan, meanwhile, used the forum to highlight domestic economic performance within that regional context. In a speech at the forum, Kyrgyzstan’s First Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, Daniyar Amangeldiev, said Kyrgyzstan’s economy grew by 11.1% in 2025, which he described as one of the highest growth rates in the region. Addressing the forum, U.S. Special Envoy for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor stated that the United States intends to expand its economic engagement with Central Asia. “The private sector, not intergovernmental agreements, will become the key instrument of interaction," he told those in attendance, identifying electronic commerce, artificial intelligence, critical minerals, agriculture, and transport infrastructure as priority areas. Gor noted that the American companies present at the forum represent the largest and most comprehensive U.S. commercial delegation ever to visit Central Asia. The U.S. recognizes the importance of Central Asia in global trade and connectivity, he stated. "The United States is open for business. We're open for peace. We're opening to strengthen our ties around the world. So that’s why it's fitting that the first C5 event in 2026 is this B5 + 1 forum,” Gor said, linking the Bishkek discussions to economic commitments made at the C5+1 summit in Washington in November 2025. “The Transport Corridor for Peace and Prosperity will provide reliable connectivity from Central Asia through the South Caucasus to global markets,” Gor said. “This is a historic opportunity to strengthen economic integration and long-term prosperity across the region.” During his visit to Bishkek, Gor also met with Kyrgyz President...