Local Politics - The Times Of Central Asia

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Export/Import

Kyrgyzstan Complicates Re-Export of Goods to Russia

Re-exporting goods to Russia from third countries through Kyrgyzstan are to become more expensive due to a new rule implemented by the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR). The new protocol prohibits banks from making payments for goods intended for foreign countries without actual delivery to the territory of Kyrgyzstan. The rule came into force on September 25 and effectively closed the channel of transit payments for goods from third countries to Russia through Kyrgyzstan. The move is seen as a response to requests from international financial institutions. It might be instrumental in putting an end to Russia’s practice of avoiding Western sanctions imposed due to Russia's war in Ukraine. The new NBKR rule would also benefit the Kyrgyz economy, as re-exported goods must now be delivered to Kyrgyzstan and subject to Kyrgyz customs duties and taxes. According to Russian media reports, Russian importers have already encountered difficulties associated with the new requirement to transport goods through Kyrgyzstan, and the corresponding customs and tax costs, which makes re-export less profitable. The NBKR requirement does not extend to the Trading Company, established by the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic on August 23. Wholly state-owned, the company oversees trade flows involving Kyrgyz firms that re-export goods without physically delivering them to Kyrgyzstan. The Trading Company has the exclusive right to carry out trade operations without actual delivery to Kyrgyzstan. Companies that previously carried out trade without delivery to the Kyrgyz territory must carry out operations through the Trading Company. Also, the NBKR rule does not apply to deliveries made through e-commerce marketplaces for personal use.

Fergana Valley

The Ferghana Valley: Navigating Complex Challenges in Central Asia’s Most Volatile Region

The Ferghana Valley is one of Central Asia’s most fertile and densely populated areas, but it is also among the most volatile. Spanning Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, this landlocked region has long been a hotbed of ethnic tension, water disputes, and political instability. These challenges are deeply rooted in the geography, history, and sociopolitical landscape, making the valley a key focal point for understanding broader regional dynamics in Central Asia. Geographical Importance and Ethnic Diversity Nestled between the towering Tien Shan and Pamir Mountain ranges, the Ferghana Valley covers over 22,000 square kilometers. It is fertile land nourished by the Syr Darya River, making it a critical area for cultivating cotton, fruits, and vegetables. These natural resources have historically drawn diverse populations, creating a vibrant ethnic mosaic. The valley is home to Uzbeks, Kyrgyz, and Tajiks, as well as smaller ethnic groups. While ethnic Uzbeks form the majority, significant Kyrgyz and Tajik minorities inhabit border regions. The ethnic diversity of the Ferghana Valley is both a strength and a source of tension. Soviet-era border policies exacerbated these divisions by creating artificial boundaries that crisscrossed the valley, leaving behind ethnic enclaves — pockets of one nationality surrounded by the territory of another. These enclaves have complicated governance and territorial integrity, making border management a persistent challenge. The Soviet Legacy and Border Disputes During Soviet rule, the Central Asian republics were organized under Stalin’s divide-and-rule strategy, which deliberately created complex borders to weaken local identities and prevent regional unity. The Ferghana Valley, divided among three Soviet republics, is a prime example of this approach. After the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, the administrative boundaries became international borders overnight between Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. The lack of clearly defined borders has sparked numerous conflicts over territory, water, and land. A notable clash between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in 2021 resulted in over 40 deaths and the destruction of homes and infrastructure. Many disputes revolve around access to scarce resources like water and arable land. These issues have escalated into violent confrontations, leading to casualties and the displacement of local populations. Water: A Scarce and Contested Resource Water is the lifeblood of the Ferghana Valley, but disputes over its allocation are a major source of tension. The valley depends heavily on irrigation for its agricultural productivity, and the Syr Darya River, along with its tributaries, plays a crucial role in supplying water to the region. However, the division of the valley among the three countries complicates water management. Uzbekistan, the most populous of the three, relies on the valley’s water resources for its cotton industry, a cornerstone of its economy. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which control the headwaters of the Syr Darya, often use their upstream position to leverage water access. This dynamic has led to frequent disagreements over water usage. For instance, Kyrgyzstan has at times threatened to withhold water unless it receives compensation, either through payments or electricity. Ethnic Tensions and Political Instability Ethnic tensions further complicate the Ferghana Valley’s already volatile...

Oil & Gas

Kyrgyzstan to Modernize Oil Refinery in Jalal-Abad

On September 28, Kyrgyzstan's largest oil refinery, located in the southern city of Jalal-Abad, began a large-scale modernization. Operated by Kyrgyz Petroleum Company, the refinery produces AI-80 gasoline, diesel fuel, and fuel oil. Kyrgyzstan's annual gasoline and diesel fuel demand is 1.4 million tons. The refinery in Jalal-Abad can meet only 6.5% of that demand. After the modernization project, the refinery will be able to meet 32% of the domestic demand. After modernization, AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline production would increase more than 12-fold, and diesel fuel production would grow by 40%. The total investment in modernizing the refinery will amount to $410 million, including $200 million in foreign investments and $110 million from the Kyrgyz government. Today, almost all gasoline and diesel fuel used by Kyrgyzstan is imported from Russia. The Times of Central Asia earlier reported that Kyrgyzstan proposed oil-rich Azerbaijan to sign a long-term contract to supply Azeri crude oil to Kyrgyzstan. Azeri crude oil is needed for Kyrgyzstan’s Junda oil refinery. Located in Kara-Balta, about 100 kilometers west of Bishkek, the refinery reopened late in August after a major overhaul. It now plans to reach its total annual capacity of processing 800,000 tons of crude oil by the end of this year.

Rule of Law

World Justice Project: Kazakhstan Leads, Uzbekistan Improves, Kyrgyzstan Drops

The World Justice Project has announced the 2023 ranking of countries based on the rule of law. The ranking is based on eight indicators across 142 countries, which include constraints on government powers, the absence of corruption, open government, fundamental rights, order and security, regulatory enforcement, civil justice, and criminal justice. Denmark, Norway, and Finland occupy the highest places on the list. Kazakhstan has the highest score among the countries of Central Asia, placing in 65th. The country's ranking in terms of corruption, order and security, and civil justice all improved. Uzbekistan placed in 78th, with its indicators for order and security particularly high; the state is listed 17th in this category, with indicators for the absence of corruption also positive. Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have improved their ranking by 2 points compared to last year. Kyrgyzstan, meanwhile, dropped one place to 103rd, whilst Tajikistan and Turkmenistan are not included in the rankings.

Green Energy

Uzbekistan Plans to Increase Share of Green Energy to 40% by 2030

Uzbekistan intends to increase the share of renewable energy sources in the country’s energy consumption structure to 40% by 2030. Energy Minister Zhurabek Mirzamakhmudov announced this at the “Russian Energy Week" forum. According to Mirzamakhmudov, renewable energy, including solar and wind power plants, will become the basis for meeting the growing electricity demand as part of the country's growth strategy. Mirzamakhmudov noted that Uzbekistan's economy is growing by 6% annually, and the population will continue to grow. This causes the demand for electricity to grow by 7-8% per year, and by 2030, this figure may stabilize at 7.5%. Uzbekistan plans to introduce up to 20 gigawatts of solar and wind power plant capacity to meet this demand. It is expected that the share of renewable energy sources in the country's total energy balance will reach 40%. The share of renewable energy is about 10%, but by the end of this year, it should increase to 15%. In the coming years, 2.5 to 3.5 gigawatts of new capacity will be commissioned annually. In addition, considerable attention will be paid to developing thermal and hydroelectric power plants, which are planned to reach 18.5 gigawatts of capacity by 2030. The minister also emphasized the importance of energy storage systems. Uzbekistan plans to install 300 megawatts of storage capacity this year and increase it to 4.2 gigawatts by 2030, mainly using lithium-ion batteries. Along with this, projects to create hydro-battery stations will be implemented. Mirzamakhmudov added that all these projects are financed by foreign direct investment, demonstrating the high interest of international investors in the country's energy sector. The Russian Energy Week 2024 forum is being held in Moscow from September 26 to 28. The event's main theme is “Energy Cooperation in a Multipolar World.” More than 70 speakers from various countries have participated, including from Russia, BRICS countries, and Africa. The forum discussed topics such as sustainable energy development, the role of hydrocarbons in the future, and issues of technological independence. One of the key events was the meeting of BRICS energy ministers. Earlier, The Times of Central Asia wrote about the annual meeting of the Board of Directors of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) held in Samarkand on September 25-26, where Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev proposed a program of green energy development for Central Asia.

Environment

UNESCO Concerned About Plans to Develop Western Tien Shan

UNESCO has expressed concern over the plans of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan to develop natural areas of the Western Tien Shan, a World Natural Heritage site. This concern was realized after a visit by UNESCO and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), which was a joint mission to these countries to assess the state of the site and the impact of economic activity on it. The public foundation (PF) “Rivers Without Borders” stated this in its report. According to UNESCO, the “Western Tien Shan” is a transboundary site in the Central Asian Tien Shan mountain system, one of the seven largest mountain ranges in the world. The altitude of different sections of the Western Tien Shan varies from 700 to 4503 meters. The site consists of diverse landscapes characterized by a vibrant biodiversity. The Western Tien Shan region is important globally as it is the birthplace of several fruit tree species and is characterized by diverse forest types and unique plant life. In Kyrgyzstan, evidence of the illegal mining of gold within the territory of the World Heritage Site was revealed. In addition, a powerful hydroelectric power plant is planned to be built on the Chatkal River, which may flood protected areas and disrupt the landscape. The construction of the Talas-Chatkal-Tashkent highway along the reservoir will only aggravate the ecological situation. In Kazakhstan, the authorities plan to build a cascade of hydropower plants on the Ugam River, which could destroy the current river ecosystem. Part of the river's flow will be directed through a 210-kilometer pipe for use in other regions of Turkestan region. Experts expressed severe concerns about destroying the natural ecosystem and possible consequences for local flora and fauna. The situation is no less alarming in Uzbekistan: the Chatkal and Ugam rivers have already been dammed, significantly altering their natural landscape. During the visit, the experts said that bulldozers and excavators are already changing the course of the Ugam River, channeling it into artificial channels to construct several small hydropower plants. Rivers Without Borders also oppose these projects, pointing out that they violate international standards and UNESCO requirements. The organization's chief specialist, Evgeny Simonov, stressed that implementing the projects without appropriate environmental assessments and consultations with UNESCO violates the Convention for the Protection of the World Cultural and Natural Heritage. The report on the mission's results is expected to be presented at the next session of the UNESCO World Heritage Committee in 2025 in Sofia, Bulgaria.