Local Politics - The Times Of Central Asia

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Population

Kyrgyzstan Aging Population Puts Growing Pressure on Pension System

The number of people above working age in Kyrgyzstan has increased by more than 146,000, or 25%, over the past five years. The country still has a relatively young population, but the growing number of older people is nevertheless raising questions about the long-term sustainability of its pension system. At the beginning of 2026, Kyrgyzstan had a population of 7.4 million, including 737,000 people above the standard retirement age – 63 for men and 58 for women – accounting for about 10% of the population. Women outnumber men in this group by roughly two to one, as they not only tend to retire earlier but also live longer: 76.9 years compared with 68.7 years for men. For international demographic comparisons, the share of people aged 65 and older is more commonly used. In Kyrgyzstan, this group now accounts for 6.4% of the population and is projected to approach 7% around 2030. By comparison, people aged 65 and older make up about 9% of Kazakhstan’s population and roughly 18% in Russia, Belarus, and Moldova. This is not the only challenge facing the pension system. In 2025, the Social Fund – the country's pension pot – had about 1.46 million social insurance contributors and 816,600 pensioners, or roughly 1.8 contributors per pensioner. Social Fund officials have previously said that around three workers per pensioner are needed to maintain the system’s financial sustainability. One reason is the scale of informal employment. In 2024, it was estimated that more than 24% of employed people worked without formal registration. For the pension system, that means fewer workers making regular social insurance contributions. The National Statistical Committee estimated the unobserved economy at 19.5% of GDP in 2024, although its breakdown by economic activity excludes agriculture, which provides a livelihood for a large swathe of the country. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan is developing a program to help older people remain healthy, economically active, and socially engaged as the population ages. The government says the measures are intended to improve quality of life in old age while reducing some of the economic and social pressures associated with an aging population.

Independence Day

Turkmenistan Marks 35 Years of Independence Amid Reports of Shortages

Turkmenistan marked 35 years of independence on September 27 with a military parade and mass celebrations in Ashgabat. The festivities followed independent reports of food shortages and disrupted public transport in the capital. President Serdar Berdimuhamedov attended the parade at the State Tribune complex, where military units and armored vehicles passed before the country’s leaders. The official account described mounted formations and a simultaneous naval display on the Caspian Sea. A civilian procession followed, with decorated floats representing the country’s regions and economic sectors. Performers in traditional dress joined the celebrations, while the government presented Berdimuhamedov with an Akhal-Teke horse named Vatan. The anniversary program had begun before the holiday itself. On September 26, Berdimuhamedov attended a concert at Ashgabat’s Congress Center. According to state media, the performance included patriotic songs celebrating the president and his father, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, who chairs the Halk Maslahaty. Official coverage presented the anniversary as a demonstration of national unity and economic progress. The celebrations also provided an occasion for state awards, while the president signed a decree pardoning 1,054 convicted Turkmen citizens ahead of the anniversary, according to a September 26 government report. He instructed the defense minister and law enforcement officials to arrange for their release and return to their families. The report did not provide a breakdown of their convictions. A separate decree declared September 28 a non-working day and moved the day off falling on Sunday, September 27, to September 29, extending the holiday break through Tuesday. However, independent reporting from Ashgabat described pressures on everyday life during preparations for the anniversary. On September 22, Chronicles of Turkmenistan reported reduced supplies of meat and rising food prices in the capital. Its correspondents said chicken legs usually sold for 16 manats per kilogram ($4.57 at the official rate) had become difficult to find. Chicken previously priced at 35 manats per kilogram was available only intermittently at the Paýtagt shopping center, where it now cost 39 manats. Vegetables and potatoes had also become more expensive. Chronicles of Turkmenistan attributed this partly to reduced supplies from neighboring Iran. The reports reflect a longer-running pattern. The Times of Central Asia previously documented shortages and rationing in state food stores, where subsidized staples remained scarce despite rising prices. In a separate September 21 report, Chronicles of Turkmenistan said many of Ashgabat’s buses had been diverted to preparations for Independence Day and the September 23 Halk Maslahaty meeting. Vehicles were carrying performers and other participants to rehearsals, while ordinary passengers faced long waits. The report described overcrowded services during rush hour, and said some taxi drivers had doubled short-distance fares from 10 to 20 manats per passenger. Turkmenistan declared independence from the Soviet Union on October 27, 1991. The authorities moved the annual holiday to September 27 in 2018, so this year’s official celebrations preceded the historical anniversary by one month.

Saida Mirziyoyeva

Opinion: Why Uzbekistan’s Presidential Administration Was Given Sweeping Powers and Broad Immunity

Saida Mirziyoyeva, the 41-year-old daughter of Uzbekistan’s president who has headed his administration since 2025, is taking an increasingly active role on the international stage. She participated in the 15th United Nations Congress on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice in Abu Dhabi, and was received by UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. During the meeting, the two sides discussed further expansion of cooperation between Uzbekistan and the United Arab Emirates. Combined with the law on Uzbekistan’s Presidential Administration adopted in August, Mirziyoyeva’s growing international profile raises a broader question: how far could her political influence extend? A New Legal Framework The Constitutional Law on the Administration of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, approved by the Senate on August 7 and signed by Shavkat Mirziyoyev a week later, on August 14, followed closely on the heels of a constitutional amendment establishing that the administration’s legal status and powers should be defined by law. Officially, the legislation was drafted to implement Article 109 of Uzbekistan’s Constitution. The article states that the president forms an administration and appoints its head to provide organizational, legal, and analytical support for the exercise of presidential powers. An amendment that took effect on July 25 added that the legal status, main tasks, organization, and powers of the Presidential Administration are to be determined by law. Saida Mirziyoyeva had been appointed head of her father’s administration in June 2025. When the bill, consisting of four chapters and 34 articles, was presented in the lower house of parliament, lawmakers said the experience of a number of countries had been studied. They included Turkmenistan and Taiwan, as well as Finland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Latvia, the United States, and Kazakhstan. Lawmakers cited these countries’ arrangements for regulating presidential administrations, offices, or chancelleries. The Uzbek law combines substantial administrative and coordinating authority with extensive immunity provisions for senior Presidential Administration personnel. Powers of a “Successor”? Under the new law, the head of Uzbekistan’s Presidential Administration has the authority to: introduce or eliminate additional staff positions and create or abolish project offices responsible for developing individual sectors and industries; coordinate and oversee administrative reforms in national and local executive bodies and submit proposals to the president on improving public administration; facilitate the introduction of key performance indicator systems in government bodies; appoint and dismiss certain officials of government bodies and organizations; create or abolish compliance units in government agencies, as well as positions for deputy heads or advisers responsible for compliance and internal anti-corruption controls. The head of the administration may also hire independent advisers on a contractual basis. Under the law, the head of the Presidential Administration also becomes deputy chair of the Security Council under the president and organizes and coordinates the activities of its members. Some Uzbek opposition figures, most of whom live and work abroad, see Mirziyoyeva’s expanded powers as adding weight to speculation that the president may be preparing his daughter as a possible successor. “She was already de facto the No....

Military Deaths

Kazakhstan Orders Military Overhaul After 14 Die in Caspian Drills

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has replaced the country’s defense minister, three days after 14 servicemen were killed during military exercises in the Caspian Sea. Tokayev appointed Aidos Myrzakhmetov to lead the ministry, ordered a broad inspection of the Defense Ministry, and gave officials ten days to prepare a military reform plan. Dauren Kosanov, who had held the role since June 2025, was dismissed on September 27. On the same day, Tokayev appointed Myrzakhmetov and introduced him at a meeting of senior Defense Ministry officials. Myrzakhmetov, 45, is a career officer who spent much of his career in the State Guard Service before being appointed commander of the Armed Forces’ Special Operations Forces in January 2024. He graduated from the National Defense University in 2025 and holds the rank of major general. [caption id="attachment_57120" align="aligncenter" width="750"] New Defense Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan meets with the President; image: Akorda[/caption] Political analyst Adil Seifullin said the appointment appeared to continue a practice of moving officers with State Guard Service experience into senior government roles where officials face difficult decisions. He said Myrzakhmetov’s combination of experience in the service and direct command of the Special Operations Forces may have been among the factors behind his selection. Tokayev set several priorities for the new minister, including reassessing the effectiveness of military spending, overhauling the command system, accelerating digitalization, and using technology instead of personnel for dangerous tasks where possible. He also said appointments to command positions should be based on experience and professional qualifications “rather than the principle of personal loyalty.” “Our army is stuck in the last century,” Tokayev said, calling for the command system to be rebuilt using international experience. The Security Council staff and Defense Ministry have ten days to prepare a phased military reform plan, which is due to be considered at a Security Council meeting in the second half of October. Tokayev specifically instructed officials not to produce another set of lengthy concepts and road maps, but to propose concrete measures. The overhaul follows the deaths of 14 servicemen during the Khazar Qorgany 2026 exercises in the Mangystau region on September 24. Seventeen servicemen were swept into the sea during a personnel landing operation from the Qaisar boat. Three were rescued, and 14 died. September 25 was declared a day of national mourning in Kazakhstan. The Interior Ministry’s military investigative department opened a criminal case over suspected negligence and violations of navigation rules. Five members of the military command were subsequently detained as suspects. These included the chief of staff and first deputy commander-in-chief of the Naval Forces, two military unit commanders, a Marine Corps company commander, and the commander of the boat. The Times of Central Asia previously reported on the tragedy and investigation, as well as the response of victims’ relatives. The tragedy also raised questions about how the landing operation itself was organized. Azerbaijani military expert and reserve colonel Shair Ramaldanov said that, as he understood it, the Qaisar normally carried a crew of four...

Opposition

Tajikistan’s Islamic Opposition Changes Leader After 20 Years

The Islamic Renaissance of Tajikistan (formerly the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan) has elected a new chairman after longtime leader Muhiddin Kabiri decided to step down. The IRP has been one of the most influential groups in Tajikistan since the country became independent in late 1991. The organization subsequently became the principal target of a sustained government crackdown, which culminated in its activities being banned in Tajikistan and pressure being applied to members who fled the country. The New Leader Members of the IRP’s Supreme Presidium met in Vilnius, Lithuania, on September 19 to choose from three candidates: Abubakr Nuri, Abdukodir Shehov, and Islomiddin Saidov. Sixty-four percent of members voted for Saidov, the group's first deputy chairman. In late August 2026, the IRPT changed its name to simply the Islamic Renaissance of Tajikistan. Saidov, who made that announcement, explained to the Tajik opposition’s Azda TV that the removal of the word “Party” and the change of the organization’s symbols were part of internal reforms. The leadership change appears to be another part of those reforms, although Kabiri said he had wanted to step down as the group’s leader for some time. Edward Lemon, president of the Washington-based Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, has followed events in Tajikistan for some two decades. He has lived in the country and speaks Tajik. He met Saidov and describes him as a moderate, much like Kabiri. Saidov is from Nurobod in the Rasht Valley, and, according to Lemon, is a cleric “who takes a firm stance on issues of authoritarianism and Islamic rights.” Saidov takes over Tajikistan’s largest opposition group, but one that has been embattled for years and forced to conduct its work far from the borders of Tajikistan. There Since the Start The Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) was formed in the final years when Tajikistan was a Soviet republic, after Mihail Gorbachev’s perestroika policy was implemented. Following independence in 1991, the IRPT spearheaded the opposition to the government that eventually took over and was led by Rahmon Nabiyev, a former leader of the Tajik Soviet Socialist Republic who was ousted in Gorbachev’s anti-corruption campaign in the mid-1980s. When civil war broke out in the spring of 1992, the IRPT joined forces with the Democratic Party of Tajikistan and the Pamiri organization La’li Badakhshan to fight government forces. The IRPT was the backbone of this unlikely alliance. When the Tajik Peace Accord ended the war in June 1997, then-IRPT leader Said Abdullo Nuri signed on behalf of the opposition. The peace deal legalized all three opposition groups, making the IRPT the first, and to date only, Islamic party to be registered in any Central Asian country since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The agreement also stipulated that the opposition would receive 30% of positions in the government, from local to ministerial posts. Marginalized and Ousted The arrangement lasted only a few years before Emomali Rahmon, who had come to power during the civil war, gradually began removing former opposition...

Education Policy

Kazakhstan Education Reform Puts 12th Grade Under Review

Kazakhstan is considering whether to eliminate the 12th grade at Nazarbayev Intellectual Schools (NIS), as some families transfer their children to regular schools after the 10th grade so they can graduate a year earlier. Established in 2008, NIS is a state-funded network of elite schools specializing in science, mathematics, and languages. It operates its own 12-year curriculum. Education Minister Zhuldyz Suleimenova said 88% of NIS graduates finish school at age 18, while about 300 received their diplomas at age 19 last year. A commission is examining whether the curriculum can be compressed into 11 grades, with conclusions expected by January 2027. The discussion began after remarks by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on August 26. At a national education conference, Tokayev questioned whether it made sense to keep 18-year-olds in school and instructed officials to review the 12-year programs at NIS and private schools. Possible changes would also affect international programs. Suleimenova referred to the uniform national standard for school education enshrined in Kazakhstan’s new Constitution, which took effect on July 1. No decision has yet been made to eliminate the 12th grade. The commission is comparing the curricula of NIS and regular schools and calculating the number of instructional hours. NIS has a longer school day, roughly from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., plus eight hours of individual instruction a week. In regular schools, the main curriculum ends after the ninth grade; at NIS, it ends after the 10th. In the 11th grade, students at regular schools take state examinations while preparing for the Unified National Testing, Kazakhstan’s university entrance exam. NIS students have another year. There is a historical irony to the current debate. For more than two decades, Kazakhstan prepared to move in the opposite direction by making 12 years of schooling the national standard. The transition had been discussed since the early 2000s, and by 2012 the new model was being tested in more than 100 schools. The timetable was postponed several times, in part because of insufficient infrastructure. As recently as 2019, a full transition was planned for 2021. But the 12th grade ultimately took root mainly at NIS and some international schools. Today, the NIS network includes 22 Intellectual Schools and three international schools, with about 20,000 students and more than 2,600 teachers. Its schools use the NIS Programme and the International Baccalaureate. More than 4.1 million children are attending Kazakhstan’s schools in the 2026/27 academic year, including about 227,000 in the final 11th grade. The number of years spent in school, however, is only one part of the discussion. There is also an external measure of educational outcomes. On September 8, the same day Suleimenova spoke, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released the results of the 2025 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). Students in Kazakhstan scored 420 points in science, 414 in mathematics, and 385 in reading. The respective OECD averages were 482, 463, and 461. More than 41% of participants from Kazakhstan failed to reach the baseline Level 2 in...