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Demographics

Central Asia’s Population Could Reach 96 Million by 2040, Raising Infrastructure Pressures

Central Asia’s population could grow to 96 million by 2040, a trend expected to stimulate economic expansion while placing significant strain on infrastructure, energy systems, and water resources across the region, according to Russia’s state news agency TASS. In an interview with TASS, Nikolai Podguzov, Chairman of the Management Board of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), said demographic growth would be one of the defining factors shaping Central Asia’s long-term development. “By 2040, according to our estimates, the population of Central Asia may reach 96 million. This should become a driver of economic growth, but at the same time such numbers will create enormous pressure on infrastructure,” he said. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Central Asia’s population exceeded 84 million in 2025, continuing a rapid upward trend after surpassing 80 million in 2024. Projections indicate that the population could exceed 100 million by 2050, underscoring the scale of demographic and economic transformation facing the region in the coming decades. Podguzov added that the region would require significant progress in energy efficiency, modern transport systems, and water management to ensure sustainable development. He described Central Asia as one of the regions of the world most vulnerable to climate change. According to EDB forecasts, water shortages are expected to intensify, with an annual deficit potentially reaching between 5 and 12 cubic kilometers by 2028. A substantial portion of water resources is already lost due to outdated irrigation and distribution systems. Podguzov said the bank is financing projects to modernize irrigation networks, introduce water-saving technologies, and implement digital water accounting mechanisms across the region. To address these challenges, the EDB has proposed a Eurasian Transport Framework, a network of transport corridors aimed at lowering logistics costs and accelerating trade flows. While existing routes predominantly run east to west, Podguzov emphasized the growing importance of north-south connections, including the potential Trans-Afghan corridor, which could provide access to markets in South Asia and the Persian Gulf. The bank projects that the combined economies of Central Asia’s five countries will reach approximately $600 billion in 2026, positioning the region among the fastest-growing globally. However, Podguzov stressed that demographic expansion, transport development, and water security are closely interconnected challenges that require coordinated policy responses.

International Women's Day

How Much is Berdymuhamedov’s 8 March “Gift” to Turkmen Women Actually Worth?

Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdymuhamedov has ordered that female residents of the country receive 60 manats each in honor of March 8, International Women’s Day. At the current market exchange rate of 19.5 manats to the U.S. dollar, this amounts to approximately $3. Officially, the decision is described as recognition of “the great contribution of women in bringing about changes for the prosperity of the country, in raising a healthy and enthusiastic generation devoted to the Motherland, in order to continue the noble traditions of our ancestors in honoring our beloved mothers and dear sisters in the era of the rebirth of a new era of a powerful state.” Payments are scheduled to be distributed between March 2 and March 6. Eligible recipients include women employed in enterprises and organizations regardless of ownership, pensioners and recipients of state benefits, graduate and doctoral students, clinical residents on leave from work, students of the Academy of Public Administration with a term of study of at least two years, as well as schoolgirls, university students, and kindergarten pupils. Turkmen women have received the equivalent of about $3 for the holiday for seven consecutive years. However, since 2019, the cost of food and consumer goods in the country has risen significantly. The official exchange rate of the Turkmen manat has remained fixed at 3.5 manats per dollar since 2015. By that rate, 60 manats would equal approximately $17. However, the widely used parallel market rate currently stands at about 19.5 manats per dollar, reducing the real value of the payment to roughly $3. As a result, the actual purchasing power of the “gift” is significantly lower than the figure implied by calculations based on the official exchange rate. In September 2025, one elder publicly called for an end to increasing such payments, stating that “the social and living conditions of the country’s population have reached a high level.”

Podcast

Pannier and Hillard’s Spotlight on Central Asia: New Episode Out Now

As Managing Editor of The Times of Central Asia, I’m delighted that, in partnership with the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, from October 19, we are the home of the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast. Chaired by seasoned broadcasters Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL’s long-running Majlis podcast and Michael Hillard of The Red Line, each fortnightly instalment will take you on a deep dive into the latest news, developments, security issues, and social trends across an increasingly pivotal region. This week, the team will be covering Kazakhstan announcing the date for its upcoming constitutional referendum, controversial polling decisions in Kazakhstan, a new fighting force forming that could make the Tajikistan–Afghanistan border even more volatile, one leader returning from an unexplained absence, and several others travelling to the United States for talks that are raising eyebrows. We'll also cover a major government reshuffle in Turkmenistan, before turning to our main story: the removal of one of Kyrgyzstan's most powerful figures, and the political and geopolitical aftershocks likely to follow. On the show this week: - Emil Dzhuraev (Political Expert)

C5-UK

Uzbekistan Eyes UKEF Backing and Market Access at C5–UK Talks

London is hosting the first formal meeting of Central Asian foreign ministers with the United Kingdom on February 26, opening a new “Central Asia–UK” ministerial track after a broader parliamentary program in London earlier in the week. Foreign ministers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are attending. Kyrgyzstan’s Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubayev is expected to hold bilateral talks with UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, while Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev has also been holding meetings in London focused on trade, investment, and critical minerals cooperation. With delegations from all five Central Asian countries present, the format provides scope for further bilateral engagements on the margins. On the eve of the ministerial meeting, Central Asian foreign ministers, led by Kazakhstan’s Yermek Kosherbayev, held a session with the UK’s All-Party Parliamentary Group on Cooperation with Central Asia, with British MPs emphasizing political dialogue, legislative exchange, and deeper interparliamentary ties as foundations for advancing economic and regional cooperation. For Tashkent, the London meeting comes after a burst of bilateral engagement that has put finance and infrastructure at the center of the relationship. On February 17, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev received the UK Prime Minister’s Trade Envoy to Central Asia and Azerbaijan, Lord John Alderdice, and highlighted how heavily Uzbekistan has leaned on London’s markets: Uzbek sovereign and corporate bonds worth more than $15 billion have been placed on the London Stock Exchange, while trade turnover has doubled over the past five years, according to the presidential press service. Mirziyoyev also flagged potential projects spanning energy, finance, geology, and transport, and the sides agreed to prepare a joint roadmap. That roadmap is already acquiring project language. Uzbekistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance, Jamshid Kuchkarov, met Alderdice in Tashkent with representatives of the London Stock Exchange Group, Arup, and UK Export Finance (UKEF), as well as the UK ambassador, Timothy Smart. According to the Uzbek government, talks focused on transport and logistics infrastructure—rail and road projects, airport modernization—alongside green energy and public–private partnerships. The same meeting produced a memorandum of understanding between Arup and the Ministry of Economy and Finance aimed at engineering and transport infrastructure planning and capacity-building for regions. Alderdice has also put a number on the UK’s offer. Speaking at a UK–Uzbekistan infrastructure conference, he said the UK has “about £4 billion available for export guarantees in Uzbekistan specifically,” linking the figure to potential backing for projects ranging from rail and airports to urban development. He pointed to London as a venue for Uzbek IPOs and bond issuance and said he was exploring potential collaboration with Uzbekistan’s mining sector, noting that the city also hosts the London Metal Exchange. The data suggests why Uzbekistan is pushing: the UK reported total trade in goods and services with Uzbekistan of £2.2 billion in the four quarters to the end of Q3 2025, including £545 million in UK exports and £1.6 billion in imports. Uzbek borrowers have already treated London as more than a diplomatic stop. In 2024, Uzbekistan’s National Bank...

Syria

Syria After Assad: What the New Regional Order Means for Central Asia

The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 fundamentally reshaped Syria’s regional position. The collapse of the old power structure weakened Iran’s entrenched military and economic networks and left Russia’s previously secured foothold uncertain. As Damascus enters a new political phase, external actors are recalibrating their strategies in a landscape that looks markedly different from that of the past decade. For Central Asian governments, the shift is not merely regional. Syria is becoming a testing ground for how mid-sized states navigate post-conflict environments shaped by larger powers, and a potential arena for economic and diplomatic outreach. As influence is redistributed and new investment and trade corridors are reconsidered, decisions taken in Damascus will increasingly intersect with Central Asia’s own foreign policy and economic calculations. In this emerging landscape, a power vacuum is being filled by states seeking to advance their interests. From the earliest days of Syria’s post-Assad transition, Turkey has been particularly active. As part of its declared comprehensive support for the new Syrian authorities, Ankara has taken steps to consolidate its position in the Syrian Arab Republic. Turkey is actively participating in infrastructure reconstruction, investing in economic projects, and expanding military-technical cooperation with Damascus. In August 2025, Syria and Turkey signed a military cooperation agreement covering areas including counterterrorism training, cybersecurity, demining, military engineering, logistics, and enhanced coordination between their armed forces. That same month, the two sides agreed to establish an intergovernmental business council under the Turkish Foreign Economic Relations Board to promote trade and investment cooperation between public and private companies. Turkish exports to Syria reached $3 billion in 2025, reflecting the rapid expansion of Ankara’s economic presence. For Central Asia, Ankara’s activism carries particular weight. Turkey has simultaneously deepened its political, economic, and security cooperation across the Turkic world, meaning its posture in Syria intersects with its broader regional strategy. A central element of Turkey’s Syria policy remains the issue of refugee returns. However, the prospect of large-scale repatriation is complicated by several factors, notably the long-term presence of around 2.5 million Syrian displaced persons in Turkish society and the absence of stable socio-economic conditions in Syria to support reintegration. Over more than a decade of conflict, a generation of Syrians has grown up in Turkey, many of whom are deeply embedded in the country’s social and economic life. Turkey’s obligations under the 1951 UN Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, including the principle of non-refoulement, further constrain policy options. Taken together, these factors make large-scale return unlikely until Syria achieves sustained political stabilization and adequate living conditions. In the longer term, Turkey’s objective of neutralizing what it describes as the Kurdish threat emanating from Syrian territory will continue to shape its strategy. Israel has also intensified its military and political engagement since the change of power in Damascus. It has taken steps to establish control over areas adjacent to the Golan Heights and to create a buffer zone, arguing that such measures are necessary to safeguard national security against potential terrorist threats. Israeli officials...

History

An Early European View of Nomadic Central Asia

During a period when Central Asia remained largely unknown to European audiences, Among Kirghiz and Turkimans offered Western readers a rare first-hand account of the vast steppe and desert regions. The book was written in the late nineteenth century by Richard Karutz, a German traveler whose work belongs to the broader tradition of European exploratory travel literature. I first encountered this book while studying in the United States and later incorporated it into my research. A copy preserved in the library of the Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C., was published in Leipzig in 1911. Since then, it has been regarded as one of the more noteworthy works in early European writing on Central Asia. Who Was Richard Karutz? Richard Karutz was a late nineteenth-century German traveler and writer who journeyed through parts of the Russian Empire’s Central Asian territories. Though not widely known today compared to some British or Russian explorers, Karutz represents a generation of European intellectuals fascinated by the perceived “frontier zones” of empire, regions seen as remote, exotic, and culturally distinct. [caption id="attachment_44400" align="aligncenter" width="312"] Richard Karutz[/caption] He was neither a colonial administrator nor a military officer; rather, he traveled as an independent observer. His writings reflect the curiosity of an educated European shaped by the intellectual currents of his era, including Orientalism and the growing interest in ethnography. Like many travelers of his time, Karutz sought to document ways of life he believed were on the verge of transformation under imperial modernization. Across the Steppe and Desert In Among Kirghiz and Turkimans, Karutz traveled among communities then commonly referred to in Russian and European sources as “Kirghiz”, a historical term often applied to Kazakhs, as well as Turkmen tribes. His route took him across vast grasslands, caravan routes, and oasis settlements shaped by pastoral migration, tribal organization, and Islamic traditions. Rather than producing an official report or military survey, Karutz wrote in a personal and descriptive style typical of travel literature. His narrative often reads as impressionistic reflection rather than systematic analysis. He documents everyday life, including nomadic encampments and felt yurts, equestrian culture and elaborate codes of hospitality, tribal leadership and clan loyalty, as well as desert trade routes and caravan movement. Mangyshlak, a peninsula on the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea in present-day Kazakhstan, features prominently in his descriptions. Significant mineral deposits were later discovered there, leading to its designation as a “peninsula of treasures.” Mangyshlak is characterized by stark desert landscapes and was once described as a barren land consisting largely of sand and stone. In the Middle Ages, it served as a gateway for trade between East and West. The region also played a role in the early history of Turkmen communities. Karutz’s writing attempts to capture both the hardship and the quiet grandeur of steppe existence. Depicting Nomadic Society A central strength of the book lies in its attention to social organization. Karutz was particularly struck by the mobility of Kazakh life, seasonal migrations, a livestock-based economy, and...