Uzbekistan - The Times Of Central Asia

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Census

Opinion: Uzbekistan Census – When the Village Reappears in the City

Uzbekistan's first census in 37 years did more than revise the country's population upward. It changed the map of where pressure is accumulating. The preliminary results put the population at 39,047,321 – 810,617 above the official estimate. That alone resets a planning baseline. Schools, clinics, housing, labor forecasts, and regional budgets all depend on knowing how many people a state is governing. The deeper story lies in the distribution. The largest correction was in Tashkent Region. Its population had been estimated at roughly 3.2 million. The census put it at nearly 3.8 million, moving it from seventh to third among Uzbekistan's regions. Five regions, Namangan, Jizzakh, Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya, and Bukhara, came in below estimate. This suggests that demographic pressure is more concentrated in and around Tashkent than the planning baseline assumed. The central question is now absorption: whether the state can integrate people whom a narrowing rural economy, growing water stress, tighter access to Russia's labor market, and rising expectations are all pushing toward its cities. The Arithmetic of Absorption More than 600,000 young people enter Uzbekistan's job market each year. The administration has said that by 2030, the annual figure will reach one million. Official unemployment fell to 4.9% in the third quarter of 2025, but 760,000 people were nevertheless registered as job seekers. Moreover the International Labour Organization estimates that informal employment accounts for about 40% of the workforce. Those figures complicate the headline rate. Much of the intake is still not finding stable, formal, better-paid work. This is the arithmetic driving everything else. The gap between the number entering the labor market and the number the formal economy can absorb has not disappeared, rather it has relocated. Some of this pressure has moved abroad, while the rest remains in villages as underemployment or has shifted to regional towns. But the census shows that much of it is shifting toward Tashkent and the region around it, where jobs, construction sites, universities, and expectations are concentrated. This does not mean every young person is leaving the countryside, or that rural life is collapsing. Uzbekistan's village economy remains large and socially central. Yet it can no longer absorb pressure as it once did, while older outlets are narrowing. How Water Multiplies the Pressure Water stress is one force among several. People leave when rural livelihoods become less secure, farm income less reliable, and the city starts to look like the only route into cash, education, and mobility. The rural economy was already changing before the latest water shocks. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries accounted for 17.3% of GDP in 2025, down from 18.5% a year earlier. That is not necessarily a sign of failure. It is part of economic transformation. The problem begins when the transition outpaces the state's capacity to absorb people who lose their foothold in the old economy. Water rarely drives rural migration by itself. It erodes the remaining foothold of those still holding on. In vulnerable agricultural regions, especially along the Amu Darya, shortages sharpen an already...

Marriage Age

Average Marriage Age Rises in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan

Twenty years ago, women in Kazakhstan first married at an average age of about 24. Today, the figure is about 25. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan show the same gradual increase, although the pace varies from one country to another. Marriage Ages Rise Gradually in Kazakhstan According to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics, the average age at first marriage in 2025 was 27.9 for men and 25.3 for women. In 2014, the averages were lower at 27.1 and 24.6, respectively. The gradual rise follows a global pattern. The average age of newlyweds is rising as the number of registered marriages declines. Kazakhstan registered 139,500 marriages in 2019. By 2024, the total had fallen 11.4% to 123,600. Seasonal patterns have remained steady. Most marriages in 2025 were registered during the summer, including nearly 13,000 in July. The bureau tracks both figures each year, and later reports will show whether these trends continue. Urban and Rural Marriage Ages Diverge in Kyrgyzstan In Kyrgyzstan, women first married at an average age of 23.7 in 2024, up from 22.4 in 2000. The nationwide increase was just over a year. Bishkek recorded a much larger change. The average age for first-time brides in the capital rose from 23 in 2001 to 27 two decades later. The increase was nearly four years, compared with just over one year nationwide. Regional differences remain substantial. Women in Batken Region first marry at an average age of 22.7, compared with 25.9 in Bishkek. The gap exceeds three years, showing how the national average combines sharply different local patterns. Men in Kyrgyzstan first married at an average age of 27.6 in 2024. The national average for men was almost four years higher than the figure for women. Annual statistics continue to show wide differences between regions. Marriage Age Is Rising Faster for Uzbekistani Men According to Uzbekistan’s State Committee on Statistics, men first married at an average age of 26.2 in 2024, compared with 21.8 for women. In 2000, the averages were 24.2 for men and 21.4 for women. Over those two decades, the figure for men rose by two years. The increase for women was less than half a year, a much smaller change than in neighboring countries. As a result, the gap between the average ages of men and women at first marriage widened from 2.8 years in 2000 to 4.4 years in 2024. Men are delaying marriage far more than women, and the difference has become a consistent feature of Uzbekistan’s marriage statistics. The trend is unfolding in a country with a young and growing population. As The Times of Central Asia recently reported, Uzbekistan’s 2026 census revealed a larger and younger population than previous estimates had indicated. How Central Asia Compares Internationally People in Central Asia still marry earlier than those in many European and North American countries. In the United States, the average age at first marriage is 30.8 for women and 32 for men. In Norway, it is 36.8 for women and 38.4 for men. Within...

Transport Infrastructure

Can Uzbekistan Challenge Kazakhstan as Leading Central Asia Logistics Hub?

Recent developments suggest that Uzbekistan is seeking to strengthen its position in regional logistics, potentially challenging Kazakhstan’s role as Central Asia’s principal transit hub. As geopolitical tensions increase, alternative transport routes are becoming increasingly important, and Central Asia stands out as a relatively stable region. Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are investing heavily in expanding their transport infrastructure. The key question, however, is how practical and commercially viable these new projects will prove to be. Which country will ultimately be able to offer faster, cheaper, and more reliable transport corridors? Uzbekistan’s Plans In early July, Uzbekistan presented proposals for expanding its transport and logistics infrastructure, as officials sought to make greater use of what they described as the country’s underdeveloped transit potential. Officials noted that Uzbekistan occupies a strategic position connecting East and West. The country hosts approximately 4,000 kilometers (2,485 miles) of international transit corridors and has a railway network stretching 4,700 kilometers (2,920 miles). Modern logistics centers and “dry ports” are being developed in Tashkent, Navoi, and Namangan. Navoi Airport already serves as an important cargo hub on Eurasian air routes. Authorities believe that construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, together with the proposed Trans-Afghan Railway, could further strengthen Uzbekistan’s position within both regional and international transport networks. Project planners argue that, once completed, these corridors will make Uzbekistan a key segment of the shortest overland route between the Pacific Ocean and Europe. They estimate that cargo transit times could be reduced to eight days, roughly three times faster than many traditional routes. That said, the statement provided no methodology or precise endpoints for the estimate; existing China-Europe rail services generally take considerably longer. Officials also say access to Pakistan’s ports of Karachi and Gwadar would provide Uzbekistan with a gateway to the Indian Ocean and a shorter route to South Asian markets with a combined population of around 2 billion people. Gwadar is not yet connected to Pakistan’s main railway network, however, meaning that substantial additional infrastructure would be required. Significant Shortcomings Uzbek officials estimate that annual trade between China and Europe amounts to approximately $800 billion, while cargo volumes total between 120 million and 150 million metric tons each year. The government estimates that attracting an additional 15-20 million tons of international transit cargo annually could generate $400-600 million in revenue, draw around $3 billion into logistics facilities, and create approximately 50,000 permanent jobs. The presidential administration also said this could add 1.5-2 percentage points to annual economic growth, given that Uzbekistan currently captures only 1-2% of China-Europe freight – it did not explain how either figure was calculated. Although transit cargo volumes reached 15.3 million tons in 2025, an increase of 54% compared with 2021, officials believe the country’s existing infrastructure could support significantly higher volumes. At present, however, many border crossings lack sufficient capacity to process international freight efficiently. Uzbekistan currently operates 27 logistics centers that meet international standards, with a combined handling capacity of 27.2 million tons. Yet only one of them qualifies as a...

Water Management

UN: Uzbekistan Makes Major Progress in Reducing Water Stress, but Challenges Remain

Uzbekistan has recorded one of the world’s fastest reductions in water stress in recent years, according to a new United Nations case study on the country’s water-management policies. The study points to efforts to conserve water, modernize irrigation, and expand regional cooperation. It also warns that Uzbekistan remains under pressure from climate change and rising water demand, while environmental damage linked to the Aral Sea disaster continues to affect the country. The study, prepared by UN-Water, examines how Uzbekistan managed to reduce water withdrawals while maintaining agricultural production and economic development. The report describes the country’s experience as particularly relevant for other water-stressed regions and countries seeking practical solutions to increasing pressure on freshwater resources. Water has long been one of Uzbekistan’s most strategic resources. Much of the country consists of arid and semi-arid landscapes, while agriculture remains heavily dependent on irrigation. The challenge has become even more urgent as climate change affects water availability across Central Asia. According to the UN report, Uzbekistan’s level of water stress increased steadily until 2017. Since then, the country has undertaken large-scale reforms aimed at reducing water consumption and introducing more efficient technologies. These efforts have produced measurable results. In 2017, Uzbekistan’s freshwater withdrawals reached 169% of its total renewable freshwater resources. By 2021, that figure had fallen to 122%. Although still above sustainable levels and considerably higher than the regional average of 69%, the reduction of 47 percentage points within four years represents one of the most significant improvements recorded globally under Sustainable Development Goal 6, which focuses on clean water and sanitation. Data cited by the report show that total freshwater withdrawals declined from 58.9 billion cubic meters in 2017 to 42.5 billion cubic meters in 2021. Most of the reduction came from agriculture, where irrigation withdrawals fell from 53.7 billion cubic meters to 38.5 billion cubic meters during the same period. The UN attributes much of this progress to strong political commitment. According to the report, water management has become a national priority supported at the highest levels of government. UN-Water notes that water-efficiency goals have been incorporated into several development programs. These include the 2017-2021 Action Strategy and the New Uzbekistan Development Strategy for 2022-2026. The goals also appear in the Uzbekistan-2030 strategy. Among the government’s targets are the introduction of water-saving technologies such as drip irrigation, sprinkler irrigation, and laser land leveling across all cultivated land by 2030. Authorities also aim to save up to 15 billion cubic meters of water annually, reduce irrigation losses by 25%, and fully digitize the management of 200,000 water intake points. The report identifies the expansion of water-saving technologies as one of the most important factors behind the country’s progress. Uzbekistan has combined financial incentives, soft loans, and subsidies with training programs for farmers and water specialists. According to UN-Water, this approach has helped reduce investment risks and encouraged wider adoption of modern irrigation systems. These measures are especially important because agriculture remains Uzbekistan’s largest water user. According to data from the...

Fraud

Uzbekistan Busts Scam Call Centers Targeting Europe and North America

Uzbek law enforcement authorities have dismantled two illegal call centers in Tashkent that were part of a transnational fraud network targeting victims across Europe and North America, according to the country’s Ministry of Internal Affairs. The operation, carried out jointly by the Interior Ministry’s Cybercrime Department and the State Security Service, targeted offices located in the Yashnabad and Yakkasaray districts of the Uzbek capital. Authorities found 97 people, including five foreign nationals, at the first location, while 34 more, including three foreigners, were apprehended at the second site. According to investigators, the call centers conducted fraudulent phone calls and mass messaging campaigns using spoofed telephone numbers. Operators posed as financial advisers and investment brokers, persuading victims to purchase cryptocurrencies and invest in purported high-yield investment schemes. The group also created multiple phishing websites designed to imitate legitimate investment platforms, promising returns of up to 70% per month. The Interior Ministry said the organizers recruited university students in Tashkent with foreign-language skills to communicate with overseas victims. Employees operated under aliases and underwent specialized training that emphasized strict operational security. Access to the offices was tightly controlled. Criminal proceedings have been opened by the Cybercrime Department’s investigative division. Authorities said investigative and operational measures are continuing with respect to the remaining 111 individuals found at the two facilities. The Interior Ministry added that its International Cooperation Department and Uzbekistan’s National Central Bureau of Interpol are preparing requests for assistance to law enforcement agencies in Europe and North America. Officials described the operation as the result of “hundreds of hours of surveillance, digital forensic analysis, and international cooperation.” The case follows a series of major anti-fraud operations in Uzbekistan. Earlier this year, the State Security Service dismantled three call centers that targeted Russian citizens by promising compensation for allegedly defective dietary supplements and then demanding advance “tax” payments before victims could receive the fictitious reimbursements. In another operation in June, the Uzbek authorities uncovered multiple fraud schemes across six regions involving false promises of employment in South Korea. In one case, the head of a private company allegedly demanded approximately $384,000 from a group of 48 people in exchange for arranging overseas jobs.

Tax Policy

Uzbekistan Bank Data Plan Sparks Privacy and Tax Debate

A draft government resolution that would establish unified rules for information sharing between banks and tax authorities has triggered widespread public debate in Uzbekistan, with supporters describing it as a necessary step to combat the shadow economy while critics warn it could weaken constitutional protections for banking privacy. The proposal, published for public discussion by Uzbekistan’s State Tax Committee, aims to regulate how banks provide information to tax authorities. According to the committee, the document does not introduce new powers for tax officials or abolish bank secrecy. Instead, it seeks to define the procedures, deadlines, formats, and electronic methods for exchanging information already permitted under existing legislation. The proposal attracted significant attention after some media reports suggested it would allow tax authorities to gain broad access to citizens’ bank accounts and deposits. Responding to the growing discussion, the State Tax Committee issued a public explanation, arguing that these interpretations do not accurately reflect the draft’s content. “The draft does not grant tax authorities new powers, does not abolish bank secrecy, and does not provide free access to the bank accounts of citizens or businesses,” the committee said. It stressed that banks would continue to provide information only in cases established by law. The committee pointed to Article 134 of the Tax Code and the Law on Bank Secrecy, which already allow banks to share information related to taxation with state tax authorities under specific legal procedures. It also emphasized that any information received by tax authorities is itself protected as tax secrecy and cannot legally be disclosed or used for purposes other than tax administration. Officials further argued that similar information-sharing mechanisms exist in many countries, including members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Uzbekistan has also joined the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information for Tax Purposes, requiring the country to develop clear and transparent rules in this area. Despite these assurances, the proposal quickly became one of the country’s most discussed regulatory initiatives. One of the most controversial provisions concerns peer-to-peer (P2P) transfers. Under the draft, banks would report cases where an individual’s bank card or electronic wallet receives transfers totaling at least 500 times the base calculation amount during a calendar month from people other than close relatives. The measure is intended to identify cases where personal bank cards are allegedly being used for unregistered commercial activity. Economist Otabek Bakirov criticized the proposal, arguing that it contradicts constitutional guarantees protecting banking secrecy. Referring to Article 41 of Uzbekistan’s Constitution, he noted that the confidentiality of bank operations, deposits, and accounts is guaranteed by law. Bakirov also recalled that previous attempts to introduce similar monitoring of P2P transactions had been abandoned following constitutional reforms. “I hope this attempt will also fail,” he wrote, calling on parliament, the Central Bank, the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, journalists, and the public not to remain silent during the discussion. Public comments submitted during the consultation have echoed many of these concerns. According...