What Will Uzbekistan’s Role in Central Asia’s Connectivity Be?

By Robert M. Cutler A new World Bank report on Central Asian connectivity published in April 2024 highlights the importance of the Middle Corridor, a trade route spanning Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the Caucasus, connecting China and East Asia with Georgia, Turkey, and Europe. This corridor is seen as a critical alternative to Russian-controlled routes, especially in light of recent geopolitical tensions. The World Bank identifies ten steps to address bottlenecks in the Middle Corridor, aiming to increase trade volumes by tripling them by 2030. This would significantly reduce travel times and increase trade volumes to 11 million tons, with proper investment and efficiency measures in place.   Uzbekistan and the Middle Corridor The report emphasizes the need for a "holistic" approach to improving transport connectivity in Central Asia. By this, it means a comprehensive and integrated strategy that combines improvements in infrastructure and logistics improvements with a reduction in border delays and tariffs, along with the harmonization of standards across countries. This includes improving both physical and digital infrastructure, enhancing governance and efficiency and addressing productivity issues amongst the state-owned enterprises that dominate the transport sectors in the region. The World Bank notes that Uzbekistan would profit from better rail connections with Kazakhstan; yet it does not identify any potentials for such projects. That is likely because a report by the Bank identified the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route (TITR) through southern Kazakhstan as the preferred program for international support.  Uzbekistan's participation in the Middle Corridor is still in a developmental stage. Tashkent has an active interest and a strategic geographic location, but concrete actions and project details are still emerging. There have been no public announcements about specific infrastructure projects or investments that Uzbekistan is undertaking within the Middle Corridor framework. It can be foreseen, however, that railway modernization should be high on the list of programs. There is, however, a new railway project - the Darbaza–Maktaaral line - currently underway in Kazakhstan that could be extended to improve connectivity with Uzbekistan. It is projected for completion in 2025. A second phase including an extension to Kazakhstan's Syrdarya station could then facilitate a further branch line from Syrdarya to Zhetysai, on the border with Uzbekistan. This project would reduce congestion at the existing Saryagash border crossing between the two countries and thus increase the capacity for transporting goods between the two countries by as much as 10 million tons per year.   The Middle Corridor and improvements to digital connectivity At present, the region has only limited connectivity.  The Central Asian countries have heavily invested in infrastructure since the turn of the century, but the region still lags behind middle-income countries in both investment and maintenance. Most areas continue to suffer from insufficient infrastructure and expensive services. These in turn hinder the potential for internal and external trade. The World Bank's report also provides a comprehensive analysis of the challenges and opportunities for enhancing connectivity in Central Asia. For this purpose, it focuses on both physical and...