Our People > Askar Alimzhanov

Askar Alimzhanov

Senior Editor

Askar Alimzhanov graduated from the journalism department of the Kazakh State University named after S. Kirov, then worked as a correspondent for the daily republican newspaper Leninskaya Smen. He then moved to the United States to be a reporter for the daily newspaper "Cape Cod Times" in Hyannis, Massachusetts, (USA) under the journalist exchange program between the Union of Journalists of the USSR and the New England Society of News Editors. Since then, he has helped build transparency and understanding of Central Asia region in various executive level positions at media organizations including "Akbar"(Alma-Ata) international center for journalism, the Khabar News agency, the Television and Radio Corporation "Kazakhstan" JSC, and MIR- Kazakhstan.

Articles

BRICS

Tokayev Meets U.S. Envoy Sergio Gor on Sidelines of BRICS Summit

India hosted the 18th BRICS summit in New Delhi on September 12–13. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are among the partner countries of this international grouping, which began meeting in 2006 and held its first summit in 2009. Uzbekistan was represented by a delegation headed by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Jamshid Kuchkarov. Kazakhstan’s delegation was led by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. On Saturday, September 12, the Kazakh president met on the sidelines of the summit with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Sergio Gor, the U.S. president’s special envoy for South and Central Asia. During his meeting with the crown prince, they discussed economic and investment cooperation. In 2025, the United Arab Emirates ranked among Kazakhstan’s four largest foreign investors. Foreign direct investment from the Emirates totaled $1.6 billion. In January–March 2026, bilateral trade between Kazakhstan and the UAE amounted to $45.8 million. Over the past 20 years, Emirati investment in Kazakhstan has exceeded $7 billion, including around $3 billion over the past two and a half years. That same day, President Tokayev met with Sergio Gor, the U.S. president’s special envoy for South and Central Asia. Gor delivered a personal message from President Donald Trump congratulating Tokayev ahead of the 35th anniversary of Kazakhstan’s independence. They discussed the development of the Kazakhstan-U.S. enhanced strategic partnership, including cooperation in artificial intelligence and digitalization. According to the official readout, they also discussed the Kazakh president’s planned participation in the G20 summit, scheduled to take place in Miami in December 2026. Tokayev said: “I am currently preparing to take part in the G20 Summit in Miami. I believe this will also be a good opportunity to discuss the issues on the bilateral agenda. We prefer not fine words, but tangible results and practical steps to advance our mutual cooperation.” Tokayev also reaffirmed his invitation for President Trump to visit Kazakhstan. Contacts between senior Central Asian and U.S. officials have intensified. The U.S. Embassy in Bishkek reported on September 2 that Gor had met with Tokayev and other regional leaders in Kyrgyzstan. In June, Gor met with Kazakhstan’s foreign minister. Also in June, Tokayev met with Ben Black, chief executive officer of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), as part of Astana’s efforts to expand economic cooperation with Washington and attract more strategic investment. On July 10, Tokayev spoke by phone with President Trump. Another meeting of the secretariat of the C5+1 framework for U.S.-Central Asia cooperation took place in Ashgabat on September 9. Gor serves as both the U.S. ambassador to India and the U.S. president’s special envoy for South and Central Asia. Also on Saturday, Tokayev had an informal meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in New Delhi, at the Russian leader’s residence during his visit to India. Reports suggested the meeting was unplanned. No details of their discussion were released. On Sunday, September 13, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev delivered a speech at the plenary session of the BRICS Outreach Summit in New Delhi, focusing on the theme of "Strengthening Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation, and Stability." In his speech, Tokayev noted: “Last year, the volume of transit cargo transportation...

2 days ago

Nuclear Disarmament

Central Asian States Call for New Arms Controls as Nuclear Framework Weakens

Foreign ministers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have called for new, verifiable arms control mechanisms to prevent a nuclear arms race, warning that international disarmament efforts are losing ground. In a joint statement issued on September 8 to mark 20 years since the signing of the Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, the five governments expressed concern over stalled disarmament, the end of key agreements, and the modernization of nuclear arsenals. They urged nuclear powers to resume negotiations. The statement comes seven months after New START, the last U.S.-Russian strategic nuclear arms treaty, expired on February 5. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said its expiration left the two countries without binding limits on their strategic nuclear arsenals for the first time in more than half a century. President Donald Trump has criticized New START as a “badly negotiated deal” and called instead for a new, modernized arms control treaty that would include China. The ministers also cited the failure of the Eleventh Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which ended without a consensus outcome on May 22. Kazakhstan had already advanced a similar position. As TCA reported, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev used the August 29 anniversary of the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site’s closure to call for negotiations among nuclear powers, the entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and renewed multilateral action to reduce nuclear risks. Kazakhstan’s connection to the issue extends beyond diplomacy. The Soviet Union conducted 456 nuclear tests at Semipalatinsk between 1949 and 1989. Kazakhstan closed the site in 1991 and subsequently relinquished the nuclear arsenal it had inherited after the Soviet collapse. The regional treaty was signed in Semipalatinsk on September 8, 2006, and entered into force in 2009. It established the first nuclear-weapon-free zone located entirely in the Northern Hemisphere, directly bordering two nuclear-weapon states, Russia and China. That history gives Kazakhstan a distinctive place in regional nuclear diplomacy. Uzbekistan originated the proposal for the zone, presenting it at the UN General Assembly in September 1993. The September 8 statement explicitly acknowledges Uzbekistan’s initiative while crediting all five countries with establishing the zone. The statement also recognizes Kyrgyzstan for initiating the International Day for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Awareness, observed annually on March 5, and Turkmenistan for chairing the December 2024 anniversary meeting in Ashgabat. Kazakhstan has also helped coordinate cooperation beyond Central Asia. In August 2024, it hosted a conference in Astana with the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs to strengthen cooperation among nuclear-weapon-free zones, following an earlier meeting in 2019. The five states also renewed their appeal for the United States to ratify a protocol providing security assurances to the region. In May 2014, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States signed the protocol on negative security assurances, committing not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against the five Central Asian treaty members. The other four signatories have ratified it. Washington has not. The request is longstanding. The five governments made the same appeal...

6 days ago

GDP Forecast

Kazakhstan Forecasts GDP Growth Above 5% in 2027–2029

Kazakhstan’s government has approved a socioeconomic development forecast and draft republican budget for 2027–2029, projecting average annual real GDP growth above 5% as manufacturing, agriculture, construction, transport, and other non-oil sectors expand. The forecast was prepared with reference to the global economic outlook and conditions in external markets. The accompanying draft budget, approved at the same government meeting chaired by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, will be submitted to the Kurultai for consideration. Under the government’s baseline scenario, real GDP is projected to grow by 5.3% in 2027, 5.5% in 2028, and 5.4% in 2029. Nominal GDP is expected to rise from KZT 199.3 trillion in 2027 to KZT 245 trillion in 2029, an increase of almost 23%. Non-oil sectors are expected to provide the main impetus for expansion. Manufacturing output is forecast to grow by an average of 5.9% a year, substantially faster than the 2% projected for mining. Metallurgy, mechanical engineering, construction materials, chemicals, and food production are expected to make the largest contributions. Oil exports and the broader mining sector will remain central to the economy and public finances, but the forecast assumes that manufacturing and other non-oil activities will account for a larger share of new output. TCA reported in July that Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 4.1% in the first half of 2026 despite an 8.4% decline in oil production. The non-oil economy grew by more than 5%, with manufacturing, construction, trade, and transport accounting for more than 80% of overall growth. Manufacturing output increased by 9.8%. Agriculture is expected to expand by at least 5% annually. Construction is projected to remain among the fastest-growing sectors, increasing by 16% in 2027 and 17.3% in 2029. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin said the expansion would be supported by transport and logistics, energy, and water projects, together with the modernization of housing, utilities, and social infrastructure. The services sector is also expected to maintain strong momentum. Trade is forecast to expand by an average of 5.7% annually, information and communications by 9.2%, and transport and warehousing by 10.4%. The transport forecast builds on rapid expansion along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, or Middle Corridor. Annual freight volumes through Kazakhstan have risen from 0.8 million to 4.5 million tons over seven years, while delivery times fell from approximately 28–32 days to 13–17 days. The route still carries substantially less cargo than established northern corridors, and participating countries continue to work on remaining bottlenecks. Infrastructure spending is a central element of the draft budget, but Bektenov said it must be accompanied by stronger financial discipline. Under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s instructions, accelerated construction of infrastructure and social facilities has been designated as a principal budget priority. Government bodies were told to meet the approved economic targets, while administrators of budget programs were directed to increase the return on every tenge spent. The headline budget deficit is forecast to fall from 2.3% of GDP in 2027 to just 0.4% in 2029. However, the non-oil deficit, which measures the...

3 weeks ago

AIFC TCA Interviews

AIFC Interview: Central Asia Investment, Middle Corridor and ESG

The Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) positions itself as a platform for international investment in Kazakhstan and across Central Asia. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Zhanbolat Kakishev, Chief Product Officer at the AIFC Authority, discussed competition for investment, financing for the Middle Corridor, investor protection, ESG, and currency risks. Kakishev said the AIFC ecosystem has attracted $26.3 billion in investment to Kazakhstan and registered more than 6,000 companies from 90 countries. TCA: How does the AIFC assess the current investment climate in Central Asia amid the fragmentation of global markets, and what share of foreign direct investment into the region does the centre aim to attract in the coming years? Zhanbolat Kakishev: We assess Central Asia’s investment climate as resilient and gradually strengthening despite the fragmentation of global markets. Moreover, the restructuring of global supply chains and investors’ search for new sources of growth are creating additional opportunities for the region. International investor interest in Central Asia already rests on a solid foundation. According to UNCTAD, by the end of 2025, the stock of foreign direct investment in the region had reached approximately $235.5 billion, of which $156.4 billion was in Kazakhstan. The region combines a substantial resource base, a growing domestic market, and a strategic position between Europe and Asia. It also has significant investment potential in areas including transport and logistics, energy, critical minerals, digitalisation, and financial services. The AIFC does not set a target in the form of a fixed share of total FDI flowing into Central Asia. Our task today is to continue improving the AIFC ecosystem, its infrastructure, and the conditions that allow international capital to enter Kazakhstan effectively, as well as to participate in regional projects. To date, $26.3 billion in investment has been attracted to Kazakhstan through the AIFC ecosystem. More than 6,000 companies from 90 countries are registered in the Centre’s jurisdiction. For us, however, it is not only the volume of capital attracted that matters, but also its quality — long-term investment that contributes to economic diversification, private-sector development, and the further integration of Kazakhstan and Central Asia into global capital markets. TCA: Given the growing interest in the Middle Corridor, or Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, what investment instruments does the AIFC offer to finance major infrastructure and logistics projects in the region? Zhanbolat Kakishev: The AIFC provides comprehensive legal and financial infrastructure for structuring and attracting financing for major infrastructure and logistics projects, including those along the Middle Corridor. Depending on the structure of a project, special-purpose vehicles or companies (SPVs/SPCs), joint ventures, and investment funds can be used to pool capital from strategic, institutional, and private investors. Through the Astana International Exchange (AIX), projects can also raise debt and equity financing, including through conventional, green, and sustainability bonds, as well as Islamic finance instruments such as sukuk. For large infrastructure projects, the ability to combine different sources of capital is particularly important. These can include financing from international financial institutions and banks, funds from strategic...

3 weeks ago

Caspian Pipeline Consortium

Ukraine Says No Evidence of Role in Attacks on Tankers Loading Kazakh Oil: Statement in Full

The Times of Central Asia has reported on drone attacks against tankers serving the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal, including vessels loading Kazakh crude. Kazakhstan condemned the attacks on July 17 and 19 and called for an immediate halt. A fourth tanker, NELSA, was struck while loading on July 20. TCA asked Victor Mayko, Ukraine’s ambassador to Kazakhstan, to respond. His statement is published below in full. “Ukraine understands the concerns of the Kazakhstani side regarding the incidents that occurred on July 17 and 19 involving tankers loading Kazakhstani oil through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s marine terminals in the waters of the Port of Novorossiysk. Let me put it this way—we understand and share these concerns. “At the same time, I am convinced that any conclusions must be based solely on verified facts. As of today, there is no evidence whatsoever that the attacks in question were carried out by the Ukrainian side. Therefore, I ask that you refrain from making hasty and unfounded accusations, whether direct or indirect, against Ukraine. “I would like to point out that the relevant Ukrainian authorities very recently warned of the possibility of Russian provocations, including those involving the use of Ukrainian drones. We have informed our international partners that Russia is actively employing various tactics: Russian electronic warfare systems are capable of disrupting the operation of Ukrainian drones, disabling them, and, in some cases, taking control of them. “That is precisely why the possibility that the Russian side may be using such drones to carry out provocations and attempts to discredit Ukraine must be thoroughly investigated. “War always brings immeasurable suffering and grief to millions of people. But even in the midst of this immense tragedy, there are certain rules recognized by international law, and violations of these rules constitute war crimes. It is forbidden to kill civilians. It is forbidden to torture children, women, and the elderly. It is forbidden to destroy civilian infrastructure in the middle of winter, leaving millions of people without heat, water, electricity, or even shelter. It is forbidden to deliberately kill rescue workers and medical personnel who are rushing to the scene of the tragedy to help the victims. It is forbidden to shoot at ambulances transporting the seriously wounded. The use of chemical weapons, including against the civilian population, is prohibited. It is unacceptable to attack civilian ships carrying Ukrainian grain bound for countries in Southeast Asia and Africa, thereby condemning millions of people to starvation. I could go on with this tragic list. Everything listed here constitutes war crimes. And those responsible for them must inevitably be punished. “Our principled position, even against this backdrop, remains unchanged. The Armed Forces of Ukraine do not strike civilian targets, including those located on the territory of the Russian Federation. Legitimate military targets are exclusively military facilities and infrastructure that support the Russian war machine, which for more than four years now has been waging an armed, unprovoked aggression of unprecedented severity against Ukraine, its army, its...

2 months ago

Political Memory

Opinion: The Specter Is Back – A Kazakh Warning to America

I was educated and began my career under Soviet communism in Kazakhstan. For many Americans, communism may sound like a policy argument. For us, it is also family memory — famine, confiscation, repression, camps and fear, all justified in the language of equality and justice. When communism returns to the American political debate, people from Kazakhstan listen carefully. “A specter is haunting Europe, the specter of communism.” That is how The Communist Manifesto by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels began in 1848. Nearly two centuries later, the specter has not disappeared. It has changed its vocabulary, its political costumes and its geography. But the old temptation remains. It promises justice by concentrating power. In late June, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that communism was the greatest threat to the United States, greater, he said, than World War I, World War II, Pearl Harbor, or September 11. His language was characteristically blunt. Critics were right to say that democratic socialism is not the same thing as Soviet communism, and that the word “communist” should not be used carelessly in ordinary partisan debate. Still, the historical concern behind the warning should not be dismissed. Not every welfare program is communism. Not every democratic socialist is a Bolshevik. Every modern state helps its citizens in some form. The real question is when help becomes control. When does compassion become coercion? When does the state begin claiming the right to decide prices, property, production, speech and moral legitimacy in the name of “the people”? People who lived under communism know the danger. Why a Kazakh Voice Belongs in This Debate For an outside observer, it may seem strange that socialism and communism are again being debated in the United States, the stronghold of advanced capitalism, as Soviet theorists once described it. Yet the explanation is not mysterious. Congressional elections are approaching. Recent primary victories by candidates who identify with democratic socialism have brought these questions back into mainstream American politics. Of course, this does not mean the United States is on the eve of a Bolshevik revolution. America has elections, courts, private property, constitutional limits, and a free press. The Soviet Union had none of these in any meaningful sense. That distinction should be kept clear. But the first words of any political movement should be taken seriously. The early promises are usually humane. They speak of fairness, dignity, affordability, workers, tenants, food, and peace. Only later does society discover how much power must be handed to the state to make those promises real. The Democratic Socialists of America describes itself as the largest socialist organization in the United States and says working people should run “both the economy and society democratically” to meet human needs rather than profits. To many Americans, that may sound compassionate. To those of us trained in Marxist-Leninist doctrine, it also sounds familiar. I am not a political scientist or a specialist in party-building. I am simply a person who, because of my age, studied under the communists and...

2 months ago

U.S.-Kazakhstan Relations

U.S. Business Push in Central Asia Moves From Dialogue to Deals

The pace of U.S. commercial engagement in Central Asia has quickened in recent weeks, with business delegations, export-finance officials, and sector-specific agreements appearing across the region. In June, a U.S. business delegation discussed investment opportunities in Turkmenistan, while Assistant Secretary of Commerce and Director General of the U.S. and Foreign Commercial Service David L. Fogel used the Astana Mining and Metallurgy Congress to press for practical cooperation in critical minerals. That same month, the Tashkent International Investment Forum drew John Jovanovic, president and chairman of the Export-Import Bank of the United States, and Ben Black, chief executive officer of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. Kazakhstan and U.S. companies signed artificial intelligence agreements worth $10 billion, Uzbekistan agreed to reduce tariffs on a range of U.S. goods, and Kyrgyzstan’s Civil Aviation Agency held talks with U.S. Ambassador Leslie Viguerie on aviation cooperation. Taken together, these moves suggest a change in tone. Washington’s regional agenda is increasingly being expressed through commercial missions, project finance, technology partnerships, and trade mechanisms rather than broad diplomatic declarations. The shift from diplomacy to deals is becoming visible in several capitals at once. [caption id="attachment_51210" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: The Republic of Kazakhstan – the United States of America roundtable[/caption] Against that background, a roundtable titled “The Republic of Kazakhstan - the United States of America” was held in Astana on June 30. It was organized by Atameken National Chamber of Entrepreneurs, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and the Chamber of Commerce of Kazakhstan. The U.S. delegation was led by Khush Choksy, senior vice president for international member relations at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, who oversees programs in the Middle East, Türkiye, and Central Asia. The Kazakh delegation was led by Ambassador Yerzhan Kazykhan, Kazakhstan’s presidential representative for negotiations with the United States. For Choksy, the visit continued a longer push by the U.S. Chamber. He visited Kazakhstan in 2023 and 2025, and has repeatedly described the country as a strong platform for American business. Yet trade remains modest compared with the political ambition attached to the relationship. According to Kazakh government data, bilateral trade between Kazakhstan and the U.S. reached $3.19 billion in 2025, while USTR estimates U.S. goods trade with Kazakhstan at $5 billion. U.S. goods trade with Uzbekistan, the region’s most populous country, was just over $1 billion in 2025. The figures underline the gap between strategic interest and commercial scale. The reasons for this are not limited to distance. Disrupted logistics, sanctions risks linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine, and instability in parts of the Middle East have complicated long-distance trade. The Jackson-Vanik amendment, adopted in 1974, also remains formally applicable to Kazakhstan despite repeated efforts in Washington to repeal it and grant the country permanent normal trade relations status. The Astana roundtable brought together government agencies, companies, international corporations, financial institutions, and policy experts. Participants discussed investment cooperation, energy, digital transformation, infrastructure, innovation, transport, and logistics. B2B meetings were also held, along with meetings between U.S. companies and Kazakh ministries and...

3 months ago

Pax Silica

Kazakhstan’s Pax Silica Accession Bodes Well for Foreign Investment

Kazakhstan’s accession to Pax Silica is more than a diplomatic ribbon-cutting. It is an investment signal. By joining an initiative supported by the United States and built around trusted supply chains for the new artificial intelligence economy, Kazakhstan has placed itself inside one of the most important emerging conversations in global industry about who will supply the minerals, energy, computing infrastructure, data centers, talent and manufacturing capacity behind the AI boom. Kazakhstan’s official readout was explicit about that ambition. Pax Silica, it said, brings partner countries together around artificial intelligence, critical minerals, semiconductors, data centers, energy infrastructure, high-tech manufacturing, research and talent development. Kazakhstan became the first country from its region to join, with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development Zhaslan Madiyev signing the accession declaration and the AI Opportunity Partnership statement in Washington on June 25. “Behind every AI solution are energy, critical minerals, computing capacity, data centers, semiconductors, engineering talent, and secure supply chains,” Madiyev said. Pax Silica is a supply-chain coalition whereby each participant brings a piece of the AI industrial base such as chips, energy, minerals, capital, cloud infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, regulatory alignment or technical talent. Reuters has described the initiative as a U.S.-led effort to secure the supply chains behind artificial intelligence, from energy and critical minerals to high-end manufacturing and AI models. Kazakhstan’s inclusion demonstrates that the country is being viewed as a potentially significant node in the physical infrastructure of the AI economy. Why Kazakhstan Fits the Pax Silica Map Kazakhstan has existing relevance in the AI supply chain as well as the capability to expand that role. That helps explain why Kazakhstan, rather than another regional state, became the first Central Asian node to plug into Pax Silica’s trusted supply-chain architecture. The U.S. International Trade Administration says Kazakhstan has substantial reserves of rare earth elements, copper, lithium, tungsten, tantalum and other materials essential for modern technologies and the energy transition. It also notes that the country’s policy focus is shifting from raw-material exports toward value-added processing and downstream production. With regard to the energy feedstock needed to power AI data centers, Kazakhstan has been the world’s leading uranium producer since 2009 and produced about 40% of global output in 2025. Nuclear energy is returning to the strategic conversation as governments and companies look for firm, low-carbon electricity. Kazakhstan also has a proven record as a resource partner for the U.S. and the West. U.S. energy majors helped build Kazakhstan’s modern oil sector, with Chevron beginning production from a $48 billion expansion of the Tengiz oilfield in 2025. In aerospace, Kazakhstan’s Ust-Kamenogorsk Titanium and Magnesium Plant supplies major global manufacturers, including Boeing and Airbus, and officials say titanium from Kazakhstan accounts for roughly one-fifth of the global aerospace titanium market. A New Layer in U.S.-Kazakhstan Alignment Pax Silica also follows a warming trend in U.S.-Kazakhstan relations under the Trump administration. Tokayev has already framed Kazakhstan as an active participant in several U.S.-backed initiatives, including the Abraham Accords, the...

3 months ago

Fuel prices

Central Asia Avoids Fuel Shock as Global Pressures Build

Central Asia has so far avoided the immediate fuel shocks spreading across much of the world following the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran. There are no lines at gas stations, no visible shortages, and no signs of panic buying. But that stability sits within a rapidly tightening global market, where disruptions in Asia and policy responses in Europe are reshaping fuel flows in ways the region will struggle to avoid. Across Southeast Asia, governments are already taking precautionary steps. Some state agencies and private firms are shifting parts of their workforce to remote work to reduce fuel consumption and prepare for potential price spikes and logistics disruptions, while Thailand is preparing contingency measures, including possible fuel rationing. China, one of Asia’s largest suppliers of refined fuels, has moved to restrict exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in an effort to prevent domestic shortages linked to the war. The move is expected to tighten supplies across Asia, especially for countries that rely on Chinese fuel imports. China supplied about one-third of Australia’s jet fuel last year, highlighting the wider regional impact, and roughly half of the Philippines’ and Bangladesh’s in 2024. Vietnam has already warned airlines to prepare for flight reductions in April due to the risk of shortages caused by these export restrictions. Indonesia is also imposing limits on fuel sales. Fuel-related pressures have begun to emerge in Europe as well. Poland has introduced tax measures aimed at reducing fuel prices, with the government saying this will lower prices for consumers. Slovenia, meanwhile, has introduced significant restrictions on fuel consumption. Under new rules, private motorists are limited to purchasing a maximum of 50 liters per day, while businesses and farmers may purchase up to 200 liters daily. The combined effect of war-driven energy shocks and renewed tariff barriers is raising global costs and adding pressure across trade, transport, and inflation. Against this backdrop, Central Asia’s apparent stability is misleading. It is highly unlikely that import-dependent states such as Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan will be as well protected as Kazakhstan, which may benefit in the short term from higher crude prices. Starting April 1, Russia is banning gasoline exports in an effort to stabilize its own domestic market. Russia is a key fuel supplier to Central Asia. However, according to assurances from the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, the temporary export ban will not affect supplies to Uzbekistan. Deliveries under intergovernmental agreements are expected to continue, ensuring that at least part of the region’s supply remains uninterrupted. In Kyrgyzstan, despite recent developments, fuel prices and supplies remain relatively stable. The government is considering lowering taxes or temporarily waiving excise duties for fuel importers should the crisis continue. Information from Turkmenistan is difficult to verify independently. Despite reports of fuel shortages at gas stations last year, official media are now indicating a significant increase in domestic gasoline production. The production plan for January-February 2026 was reportedly fulfilled at 122.7%, according to Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Guvancha...

6 months ago

Caspian Region

War Reaches the Caspian: Central Asia Faces Growing Regional Risk

The United States and Israel's war with Iran began on February 28, 2026. The intensity of the conflict has fluctuated, but daily reports of missile strikes and explosions are increasingly resonating across Central Asia. Meanwhile, Russia’s latest war against Ukraine has continued for 1,466 days since it began on February 24, 2022. Late last year, Ukrainian drones reportedly struck a Russian oil platform at the Filanovsky field in the Caspian Sea, more than 700 kilometers from Ukraine’s nearest border. Ukraine also said the operation targeted the patrol ship Okhotnik, although the extent of the damage was not independently verified. The war in Ukraine has also created serious challenges for Kazakhstan’s oil exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). Repeated attacks and disruptions have threatened export flows, increased logistical risks, and added pressure on Kazakhstan’s budget revenues. The war against Iran has now brought military action to the Caspian coast of Iran, raising concern for energy producers and transit routes across the wider region. On March 5, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that drones launched from Iranian territory struck the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. According to the ministry, one drone hit the terminal building at Nakhchivan International Airport, while another crashed near a school in the village of Shekerabad. Azerbaijan demanded a thorough investigation. Iran later stated that it had promised to investigate the incident. Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor General’s Office subsequently opened a criminal case. As of now, tensions remain high, with both sides continuing to exchange accusations, and Azerbaijan maintaining heightened alert measures. More recently, the Israeli Defense Forces confirmed carrying out airstrikes in northern Iran, targeting naval vessels in the port city of Bandar-Anzali on the Caspian coast. The straight-line distance from Bandar-Anzali to Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku, is just over 300 kilometers, and approximately 420 kilometers to Turkmenbashi, a major international seaport and the center of Turkmenistan’s oil-refining industry. The resort zone of Avaza is also located there. By comparison, the distance from Israel to Bandar-Anzali exceeds 1,300 kilometers. These developments are contributing to rising economic uncertainty across Central Asia. The consequences extend beyond transportation and logistics disruptions, with broader implications for regional economies. The U.S. and Israel have not always appeared aligned on what would constitute victory, meaning the measure of success remains difficult to gauge. While the United States and Israel have repeatedly stated that significant damage has been inflicted on Iran’s military infrastructure (including destroying a substantial part of the Iranian navy), there is no publicly available, independently verified evidence confirming the extent of the damage to Iran’s leadership structure following the death of Ali Khamenei, Ali Larijani and other senior Iranian figures, or on Iran’s ability to mount an effective defence. Analysts have described Iran’s military resilience as decentralized, sometimes using the term "mosaic defense," meaning units can continue operating under standing orders even when senior leadership is hit. It is understood that, as part of this strategy, the Iranian military has spent decades refining its ability to operate as independent nodes, each equipped to conduct strikes under...

6 months ago

1 2 Next