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Income Growth Plan

Opinion: Kazakhstan’s New Income Growth Plan – Administrative Measures Against Market Realities

Kazakhstan’s government has unveiled a Comprehensive Plan to Increase Household Incomes for 2026-2029. The Ministry of National Economy says it contains 59 measures. The stated goals include higher wages and lower inflation. The plan also aims to ease household debt. The full text of the plan has not yet been published in open access. First Vice Minister Azamat Amrin presented its main provisions at a Government press conference on June 11. The central contradiction lies in the fact that guaranteed income growth applies to only a small segment of the population. The plan creates fundamentally different conditions for the public and private sectors. It provides for mandatory salary indexation for civil servants. Their wages will be revised every three years based on accumulated inflation. According to labor market data, this category includes about 85,000 to 90,000 people less than 1% of the country’s total workforce of around 9.3 million. It is this narrow group that receives a reliable long-term mechanism of financial protection. Indexation is also planned for employees of national companies and natural monopolies. This group includes around 700,000 to 800,000 people, or 8-9% of the labor market. Employees in the social sector, teachers, doctors, and others, receive their salaries directly from the state budget. This category numbers around 1.2 million to 1.3 million people, or 13-14% of the workforce. Under Kazakhstan’s law on public service, these workers are not considered part of the state administrative apparatus. The plan does not introduce automatic three-year indexation for them; their incomes are raised through separate government decrees, usually on an annual basis depending on budgetary capacity. More than 7 million people work in the competitive private sector, small and medium-sized businesses, as well as the self-employed, accounting for more than 75% of the workforce. For this dominant category, the plan offers no direct mechanisms for income growth. Instead of financial guarantees, the document proposes using an administrative lever: officials will hold talks with private business owners to encourage them to raise wages. The only basic indicator directly affecting the incomes of low-paid private sector workers is the minimum wage. However, the government has postponed revising the minimum wage until August 2026. Private business bears the main market risks and forms the country’s tax base. It is these taxes that finance guaranteed incomes in the public sector, which in total accounts for around a quarter of the labor market, while the overwhelming majority of working citizens, about three-quarters, have no comparable protection. Economist Murat Temirkhanov, an adviser to the chairman of Halyk Finance who took part in expert discussions of the government’s plan, says this approach distorts market relations. A directive requirement to raise wages could push businesses away from formal hiring and into the shadow economy to cut costs. In his view, the plan ignores the only real source of income growth: higher labor productivity. The document devotes only one point to this factor, even though international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have directly recommended...

3 weeks ago

Investment

Kazakhstan Strengthens Position as Central Asia’s Investment Hub, AIFC Head Says

Central Asia is moving beyond its traditional role as a transit corridor and emerging as an investment destination in its own right, according to Renat Bekturov, Governor of the Astana International Financial Centre. He said investors increasingly value transparent institutions, predictable law and capital protection alongside geography and natural resources. Bekturov noted that Kazakhstan remains the European Union’s largest partner in Central Asia, accounting for more than 80% of the EU’s trade with the region. In 2025, trade turnover between Kazakhstan and the European Union reached $45.1 billion, while cumulative European investment since 2005 exceeded $200 billion. More than 4,000 companies with European participation operate in the country, including TotalEnergies, Siemens, Airbus and Schneider Electric. The AIFC chief stressed that an important element of this transformation has been Kazakhstan’s new financial infrastructure. Established in 2018 and operating under the principles of English common law, the AIFC, as of 2026, brings together more than 5,600 companies from 90 countries, including more than 730 from Europe. According to the AIFC, more than $21.8 billion in investment has been raised through its platform, and its ecosystem has created more than 10,000 jobs. Bekturov also highlighted the development of the Astana International Exchange, which he said has become a platform for launching new financial instruments, including the region’s first IPO in Chinese yuan, Kazakhstan’s first spot Bitcoin ETF, and what AIX describes as the world’s first spot Solana ETF with staking. Bekturov also emphasized the AIFC’s role in advancing sustainable finance. Through the AIFC Green Finance Centre, Kazakhstan introduced Central Asia’s first national green taxonomy, while about 70% of the country’s green bonds and loans are verified within the center’s ecosystem. Beyond the traditional financial sector, the AIFC is also developing initiatives in mining, Islamic finance, aircraft leasing, digital assets and the creative economy. In Bekturov’s view, Kazakhstan could become a key link between European capital and Central Asia’s growing opportunities in the coming years, particularly in critical minerals, clean energy, logistics and digital infrastructure. “In a world where uncertainty has become part of every deal, trust is becoming one of the most valuable assets,” Bekturov concluded.

3 weeks ago

humanitarian aid

Kazakhstan Afghanistan Ties Expand With Aid, Medicine and Trade Talks

A Kazakhstani delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin visited Kabul on June 19-21, combining humanitarian aid, medical cooperation, education and trade talks with Afghanistan’s Taliban-led authorities. Kazakhstan has long treated Afghanistan as a central regional issue, arguing that stability and economic integration there are in the interests of Central Asia as a whole. Kazakh officials have framed engagement with Kabul as part of a broader effort to support Afghanistan’s reconstruction while keeping the country linked to regional trade, transport and humanitarian initiatives. Kazakhstan has also taken steps to formalize working contacts with Kabul. It removed the Taliban from its list of banned organizations in 2023, has kept its embassy in Kabul open, and has allowed Afghanistan’s diplomatic mission in Astana and consulate in Almaty to continue operating. Kazakhstan has not, however, formally recognized the Taliban government. One of the central elements of the visit was the delivery of another shipment of humanitarian aid. The decision followed a request from Afghanistan’s National Disaster Management Agency after torrential rains affected 31 of the country’s 34 provinces in March, bringing with them floods and landslides. UN figures from early April said the floods affected more than 73,000 people across 31 provinces, killing 93 people, injuring 181, destroying 7,672 homes and damaging farmland and roads. In June 2026, Kazakhstan delivered humanitarian aid that included food and medical supplies. This assistance came as part of Kazakhstan’s broader policy of sustained humanitarian support for Afghanistan. According to the UN, about 21.9 million people, roughly 45% of Afghanistan’s population, are expected to need humanitarian assistance in 2026. The mass return of Afghan citizens from Pakistan and Iran has created additional pressure. In 2025 alone, according to available estimates, about 2.5 million people returned to Afghanistan. Against this backdrop, any practical assistance is particularly important. Healthcare was another focus of the visit. Kazakhstan already has a record of work in Afghanistan in this area. In 2025, a medical mission involving 13 Kazakhstani doctors was organized in Kabul. The doctors performed emergency surgeries, provided consultations, and held training courses for local medical personnel. This year’s delegation included nine specialists from Kazakhstan’s leading medical institutions. As part of the Days of Kazakh Medicine in Afghanistan, they are expected to spend a week providing consultations, practical assistance and training for Afghan healthcare workers. [caption id="attachment_50713" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: Aidar Borangaziyev[/caption] Kazakhstan also used the visit to promote medical technology exports. At the business forum, the Kazakh side presented the HES-7 system, a mobile diagnostic platform that uses artificial intelligence for ECG and functional diagnostics, rapid laboratory tests and screening for several diseases. Kazakh officials said the sides were expected to sign an agreement for the delivery of 4,500 units of the equipment to Afghanistan, worth $45 million. Kazakhstan also handed over a VibroLUNG medical system to the Afghan side. The Kazakhstani device is designed to help restore respiratory function, improve bronchial drainage, expand lung capacity, prevent respiratory complications, and accelerate patient rehabilitation. The medical...

3 weeks ago

Mining

S&P Global Energy Executive Says Kazakhstan Can Move Toward Mining’s Top Tier

Wesley Monteiro, Global Market Engagement Lead at S&P Global Energy/Platts, said Kazakhstan has one of the strongest chances among mining jurisdictions to move from tier-two toward tier-one, speaking to The Times of Central Asia on June 12 on the sidelines of the Astana Mining & Metallurgy Congress in Astana. “This is the country with a big chance to move from tier-two to tier-one,” Monteiro said. He developed that argument around five factors: mineral breadth, scalable copper production, uranium, legacy mining waste, and Kazakhstan’s diplomatic architecture. “Actually, this is the only country in the world that has this combination,” he said. Monteiro used Canada and Australia as reference points for established first-tier mining countries. Kazakhstan is not yet in that category, he said, but the combination he described gives the country a credible path toward it. Monteiro was speaking from the S&P Global Energy/Platts side of the company, which provides market information, price benchmarks, supply-demand analysis, and commodity-sector intelligence, rather than from S&P Global Ratings. Kazakhstan, in his view, is being reassessed as part of a new global commodity framework shaped by energy security and flexibility, and materials security and flexibility. In that environment, Kazakhstan’s position could help reduce investor risk perception and support new or increased investment in the region. “We can see in the short to medium term a reduction in the risk perception that can trigger new investments or can increase the investments in the region,” Monteiro said. He then expanded on each of the five factors. Mineral Breadth The first pillar was mineral breadth. Monteiro pointed to copper, aluminum, zinc, uranium, and other minerals. He described this range as “mineral breadth” or “mineral range,” distinguishing Kazakhstan from mining jurisdictions built around a single resource. For Monteiro, that range was the starting point for the tier-one argument. Scalable Copper Production Within that mineral breadth, Monteiro singled out copper as the second pillar. Copper is central to the infrastructure behind electrification, power grids, data centers, and AI computing, and Monteiro said the demand is not distant or theoretical. “Now everyone needs copper, not 15 years from now — yesterday, actually,” he said. For Monteiro, Kazakhstan’s copper position is therefore not only about reserves. He distinguished between having the resource, having the capacity to produce it, and being able to develop it quickly. “One thing is to have,” he said. “Another thing is the capacity to have the production. The third thing is how fast you can develop this.” Uranium Uranium was the third pillar in Monteiro’s account of Kazakhstan’s mining position. He framed it through the renewed global debate over nuclear power, saying the sector has returned to strategic relevance after years in which some governments moved away from it following the Fukushima accident in 2011. Germany, he said, became the clearest example of that retreat, while France maintained a large nuclear base and, in his view, emerged in a stronger position. “Nuclear is back in the game,” Monteiro said. He said the renewed interest in nuclear power is...

3 weeks ago

amnesty

Tajikistan Amnesty to Free or Reduce Sentences for More Than 18,000

President Emomali Rahmon has signed an amnesty law covering 18,038 convicted people as Tajikistan prepares to mark 35 years of independence. The measure provides full release for 11,305 people and reduces the unserved terms of 6,733 others. The 11,305 figure includes prison and settlement-colony sentences, along with punishments that do not involve custody. Women and minors will receive wider relief. Of 507 women serving sentences, 248 will be released, and 259 will receive shorter terms. Of 134 minors, 99 will be freed, and 35 will have their sentences reduced. Rahmon submitted the bill to the lower house of parliament on June 16 and signed it after adoption. The anniversary falls on September 9. His office said the measure would allow offenders to “return to their families and relatives, and engage in constructive work.” The published law gives broad eligibility to women, minors, men over 55, foreign citizens, people with disabilities, and people with specified serious illnesses. War veterans, certain mobilized personnel, Chornobyl victims and cleanup workers, and holders of state awards also qualify, subject to the law’s exclusions. People convicted of negligent offenses can also receive full release, subject to the law’s restrictions. Several groups serving deferred, suspended, or non-custodial sentences can qualify, as can people in settlement colonies or on parole. For intentional offenses, people sentenced to up to five years for minor or medium-severity crimes may qualify for release. People convicted of serious crimes may qualify after serving one-third of their terms. Those convicted of especially serious crimes may qualify after serving three-quarters. Exclusion clauses still apply. The law restricts full release for a long list of offenses, including provisions on murder, rape, terrorism, extremist activity, and serious drug trafficking. It also excludes life prisoners, especially dangerous repeat offenders, people whose death sentences were commuted, and prisoners convicted of intentional crimes while incarcerated. Some specified convictions can still receive fixed reductions of one, two, or three years. Eligible cases still under investigation or before the courts can be closed when the offense occurred before the law’s adoption. The measure also removes criminal records for people convicted of minor or medium-severity offenses committed before June 16. The authorities must decide every case individually. Investigators, military commanders, and prison authorities need a prosecutor’s approval. Courts must consider applications with a prosecutor present. The amnesty does not cancel additional penalties or duties to compensate victims. Local governments must help released people find work and return minors to their families or arrange education and care. Medical and social institutions must accommodate people who need treatment or supported housing. The law took effect after official publication. State bodies have two months to complete its implementation, after which the prosecutor general must report to Rahmon. Nurullo Mahmadullozoda, a legal scholar at Tajikistan’s National Academy of Sciences, said: “A person cannot be reformed through punishment alone.” He called for employment support, legal advice, psychological help, and restored social ties after release. The law names categories and Criminal Code provisions rather than individual beneficiaries. Whether any...

3 weeks ago

Industrialization

Tajikistan Targets Industrial Growth as Share of GDP to Reach 30% by 2030

Tajikistan aims to increase industry’s share of gross domestic product to 30% by 2030 as part of its accelerated industrialization strategy, the State Committee on Investments and State Property Management said. The committee said the country has a strong raw materials base to support industrial development. According to the agency, Tajikistan has 10 of the 12 critical minerals most in demand for projects linked to the global green transition. More than 800 mineral and precious metal deposits have also been identified across the country, it said. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has also described Tajikistan as having more than 600 documented deposits of around 50 minerals, including silver, gold, lead, and zinc. The bank has said the country holds some of the largest antimony reserves in the region, though limited private investment has slowed development of the sector. Authorities say the focus is shifting beyond raw material extraction toward processing industries. Priority sectors include textiles, agricultural processing, construction materials, machine building, chemicals, and electrical equipment manufacturing. According to the committee, the strategy is designed to create investment opportunities across the full production cycle, from resource extraction to finished goods aimed at regional and international markets.

3 weeks ago

Taxi Licensing

Kyrgyzstan Moves Taxi Licensing Online

Private taxi drivers in Kyrgyzstan can now apply for operating licenses online. The new system removes the need to visit the Main Directorate for Road Traffic Safety (GUOBDD) to submit paperwork and applications in person. Drivers can apply through mobile apps, although long queues for taxi licenses have yet to ease. According to Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Adylbek Kasymaliev, the government introduced the digital system to create more transparent and convenient conditions for taxi and minibus drivers. Kasymaliev said the reform frees drivers from paper bureaucracy and simplifies the licensing process. “We have created the most convenient and transparent digital conditions. Now the task is to explain the process to every driver, including mandatory medical and technical inspections. At the same time, transport operators must clearly understand that starting from July 1 this year, taxi drivers working without proper licenses will face strict liability under the law,” he said. The licensing change follows recent moves to tighten passenger transport regulations in Kyrgyzstan. GUOBDD told The Times of Central Asia that around 300 people applied online on the first day of the new system, including 120 in Bishkek. According to Nurdin Sambaev, head of the department for transport activity licensing and technical supervision at GUOBDD, drivers need to register in the app and complete identity verification before applying. “Once the driver enters their taxpayer identification number, the system automatically requests all necessary documents from other state agencies. This includes criminal record certificates, vehicle registration documents, and other paperwork required for licensing,” Sambaev said. Some steps still require a physical visit. Drivers must appear at the department for vehicle inspections. They must also undergo a medical examination to obtain the Form 083 certificate of professional fitness. The results of these checks will be uploaded directly into the government’s Tunduk app, where the license itself will also be displayed. The simplified process has not yet won over all drivers. According to offline licensing officers, queues have remained long since authorities announced that fines would be imposed on drivers without licenses from July 1. Taxi drivers interviewed by The Times of Central Asia said submitting documents in person still feels more reliable and familiar. Many also noted that other drivers can help explain the paperwork if questions arise. Some said they had not yet figured out how to use the app, while others said their online applications had failed, forcing them to return to the traditional method. GUOBDD staff welcomed the change, saying the digital format will reduce paperwork and simplify the processing of applications.

3 weeks ago

Telecommunications

U.S. Development Finance Corporation Signals Interest in Tele2 Upgrade in Kazakhstan

The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) has announced its interest in helping modernize Kazakhstan’s telecommunications infrastructure through a potential partnership with Qatar’s Power International Holding (PIH), which owns Mobile Telecom-Service LLP, operator of the Tele2/Altel brands. DFC Chief Executive Officer Ben Black and PIH President and Group CEO Ramez Al-Khayyat signed a letter of interest and financing proposal in Astana on June 16. The document outlines a proposed partnership to support Tele2’s transition to equipment supplied by “trusted vendors,” a move aimed at improving Kazakhstan’s digital security and supporting the rollout of 5G networks. According to DFC, the proposed investment would help build more secure telecommunications infrastructure for 5G connectivity and digital services. The corporation said it sees Kazakhstan as a key part of the Trans-Caspian Corridor and an important destination for investment from the United States in Central Asia. “This deal will be truly transformative, a game-changer for regional connectivity, and a major step toward building economic momentum in Kazakhstan,” Black said. The announcement follows the completion of the sale of Mobile Telecom-Service LLP, which operates under the Tele2/Altel brands, to PIH Communication LLC, a subsidiary of Power International Holding. According to Kazakhtelecom’s audited financial statements for 2025, cited by Kapital.kz, Kazakhtelecom received the second tranche of the deal, amounting to $25.415 million, on January 22, 2026. The first payment of $700 million was made by PIH Communication LLC on January 16, 2025, bringing the total paid so far to $725.415 million. The planned sale of Mobile Telecom-Service received political backing in February 2024, following talks between Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. Kazakhstan’s telecommunications sector is also attracting greater attention from the U.S. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Tokayev met with Black in Astana on June 15 to discuss prospects for expanding economic cooperation between Kazakhstan and the U.S. Tokayev described Black’s visit as a continuation of agreements reached during talks in Washington in November 2025 and as a sign of growing U.S. engagement in Central Asia.

4 weeks ago

Education

Turkmenistan Sets New Rules for Mobile Devices in Schools

In 2020, Turkmenistan’s schools banned the use of mobile phones during classes. Now the government has introduced new rules regulating the use of portable devices in academic settings, seeking to use them as learning tools while addressing concerns about distraction and other potentially negative effects on students. A Ministry of Education order recognizes the value of mobile devices in education, saying they must provide access to learning resources, including multimedia content, and help students organize files that contain textbooks, courses, and other materials in electronic form. The devices must improve “the quality of educational management, especially in educational systems that do not have access to an internet connection,” the order says. However, the ministry order urges educational institutions to be aware of “the potential harm to students' health of small-screen mobile devices that limit the types and amounts of information,” the need to provide storage for mobile devices and the fact that bandwidth capacity decreases when a lot of users connect to the wireless network. It also mandates “ethical rules” that are designed to avoid disruption – setting devices to “silent” or “flight” mode and barring video, photo or audio recordings of students and teaching staff without their permission. The ministry issued the order on May 19 and the Ministry of Justice registered it in early June. In a report in March, UNESCO said that global monitoring showed that 114 education systems had a national ban on mobile phones in schools, representing 58% of countries worldwide. That was a significant increase over 40% in 2025 and just 24% in 2023, according to the U.N. cultural agency. “The growth reflects mounting concerns about declining attention in classrooms, cyberbullying, and the broader influence of digital environments on children,” UNESCO said. But it noted that the global picture was nuanced, with not all countries opting for full bans and instead establishing policies that govern the use of mobile devices in schools. The agency said that the various approaches to mobile device usage in schools show that “countries are still searching for the right balance between limiting distraction and teaching responsible technology use.” Turkmenistan’s new order applies to smartphones, tablets, laptops, smartwatches, and other personal electronic devices, and comes amid wider school digitalization efforts. The country maintains tight controls over internet access and online content.

4 weeks ago

Data Sovereignty

Opinion: Data Sovereignty Will Decide Central Asia’s Critical Minerals Moment

The critical minerals conversation across Central Asia still too often begins in the wrong place: with what lies beneath the ground. It should begin with who controls the knowledge of what lies beneath it. For more than a century, the resource bargain usually ran in one direction. Foreign companies arrived with the instruments, surveys, and models. Host governments arrived with the territory. The resulting terms were often shaped by information asymmetry: not only who owned the rock, but who owned the data about the rock. That asymmetry is easier to narrow than it used to be. Airborne geophysical surveys, satellite-based mapping, modern geochemistry, and national geological databases can now give governments a clearer picture of their mineral endowment before the first serious investor meeting. The decisive question is not simply whether data can be generated. It is who owns it, who validates it, and who is allowed to use it when concessions, joint ventures, and infrastructure commitments are being negotiated. Capital is the reason this matters now. Critical minerals are no longer a specialist mining issue; they sit at the center of debates over energy security, electric vehicles, grid infrastructure, semiconductors, and defense supply chains. The IEA's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 tracks how demand and supply are shifting across copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements. The U.S. C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue and the EU's strategic partnership with Kazakhstan show that Central Asia is already part of this conversation. But attention is not the same as leverage. Governments that negotiate from outdated maps, fragmented archives, or company-controlled exploration data will struggle to turn geopolitical interest into durable national benefit. They may still attract investors, but they will be negotiating through someone else's lens. A country that arrives at the table with modern, independently verifiable geological intelligence has more options. It can better value concessions, compare competing proposals, set clearer environmental and infrastructure expectations, and decide which resources are strategic enough to develop slowly rather than quickly. Data does not guarantee a good agreement. It does make a bad agreement harder to excuse. This is sovereignty in a practical form. The point is not to close the door to foreign capital or technical expertise. Central Asia will need both. The point is to ensure that the public side of the table has a master copy of the evidence. When the state owns the underlying data, investors can still compete on capital, technology, processing capability, logistics, and market access. What they should not control is the government's basic understanding of its own resource base. There is also a diplomatic dimension. The Minerals Security Partnership Forum is built around responsible, diverse, and resilient value chains, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan among its members. For Central Asian governments, that creates an opening to ask not only who will mine, but who will build capacity - and who will leave the country with stronger institutions than before. Geological data, mining cadastres, processing plans, environmental baselines, and contract terms are all part of the...

4 weeks ago

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