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Vagit Ismailov

Journalist

Vagit Ismailov is a Kazakhstani journalist. He has worked in leading regional and national publications.

Articles

Iran

How an Incident on the Azerbaijan-Iran Border Became a Test for Diplomacy in the Region

The drone strike on Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic on March 5 has become one of the most serious incidents in relations between Baku and Tehran in recent years. Azerbaijani authorities described the incident as a terrorist act and demanded explanations and an apology from Iran. Tehran, in turn, rejected the accusations, suggesting the possibility of a provocation by “third forces.” Following the drone incident, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev held a phone call with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to discuss regional security. According to the Azerbaijani presidency, Aliyev thanked Tokayev for condemning the attack on Nakhchivan and for voicing support for Azerbaijan. What began as a local security incident has raised concerns about regional stability in the South Caucasus. Terrorist Act Against the State Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev issued a statement strongly condemning "this despicable terrorist act. Those who committed it must be brought to justice immediately,” Aliyev said. According to Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, one drone hit the terminal building of Nakhchivan International Airport, while another crashed near a school in the village of Shekerabad. Two civilians were reportedly injured. Baku stressed that the attack, allegedly launched from Iranian territory, violated international law and could lead to a dangerous escalation of tensions in the region. Diplomatic Escalation Despite the harsh rhetoric in the first hours after the incident, Baku opted to rely primarily on diplomatic tools. The Iranian ambassador was summoned to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry and handed a formal note of protest requesting official explanations. Azerbaijan said on Friday that it was evacuating staff from its embassy in Tehran as well as its consulate in the city of Tabriz. At the same time, Azerbaijani security forces were placed on high alert. According to Aliyev, the country’s armed forces were instructed to prepare possible countermeasures. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke by phone with Aliyev, condemning the attack and expressing support for Azerbaijan, according to official statements. Reports of alleged Iranian-linked sabotage plots also surfaced, with the Azerbaijani authorities stating that several terrorist attacks had been prevented on the country’s territory. According to the State Security Service, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was behind the plots. Among the alleged targets was the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, a strategic energy corridor linking the Caspian region with Turkey and one of the main routes for exporting Azerbaijani oil. According to Azerbaijani sources, other potential targets included the Israeli embassy, a synagogue in the capital, and a leader of the local Mountain Jewish community. The security service reported that three explosive devices had been brought into the country but were discovered and defused before they could be delivered. The development of the crisis has prompted increased diplomatic contact between world leaders. Russian President Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian amid the growing regional tensions. Shortly thereafter, Russia’s Foreign Ministry called on both sides to exercise restraint and emphasized the need for a thorough investigation into the drone strike. On March 7, the foreign ministers of all the Central...

11 hours ago

Credit Ratings

Moody’s Upgrades Tajikistan’s Credit Rating to B2, Citing Economic Improvements

International rating agency Moody’s has upgraded Tajikistan's long-term sovereign credit rating to B2 with a stable outlook, according to the National Bank of Tajikistan. According to the financial regulator, Tajikistan has been cooperating with Moody’s since 2014, and the latest decision marks the first time the country’s sovereign rating has been raised to the B2 level. The National Bank said the upgrade reflects the government’s ongoing economic reforms and policy measures aimed at strengthening the country’s financial system and macroeconomic stability. Moody’s cited several factors behind the upgrade from B3 to B2, including sustained economic growth in recent years, improvements in fiscal management, and continued positive macroeconomic trends. The agency also highlighted progress in structural reforms, reduced risks related to public debt, and improvements in public financial management. The stable outlook indicates Moody’s expectation that Tajikistan will maintain prudent fiscal and monetary policies in the coming years. A B2 sovereign rating signals moderate creditworthiness. This means that while the country is capable of meeting its financial obligations, certain economic and external risks remain. Compared with the previous B3 rating, the upgrade reflects a stronger financial position and increased confidence from international financial markets. The stable outlook also suggests that no major macroeconomic shocks are expected in the medium term and that economic risks are considered manageable. Assessments by international rating agencies play an important role for countries seeking access to global financial markets. First, sovereign credit ratings help investors and lenders evaluate a government’s ability to meet its financial obligations, which directly affects borrowing costs and loan conditions. Second, a higher rating increases a country’s attractiveness to international investors. Global financial institutions often rely on such ratings when assessing investment risks, meaning improvements can help attract foreign capital. Credit ratings are also viewed as indicators of economic stability and fiscal discipline, strengthening confidence in government policies among international partners and domestic market participants. In addition, sovereign ratings influence external debt management and help governments raise financing for infrastructure and social development projects. The Moody’s upgrade is not the only positive signal for Tajikistan’s economy. Just a month earlier, another major international rating agency, Standard & Poor’s, improved the outlook on Tajikistan’s long-term sovereign credit rating from stable to positive while maintaining the rating at B. Taken together, the assessments from two leading global rating agencies highlight improvements in Tajikistan’s macroeconomic conditions and point to stronger prospects for financial stability in the coming years.

12 hours ago

Consumer Prices

Prices in Turkmenistan Rise Sharply Due to the Situation in the Middle East

Military activity in neighboring Iran has begun to directly affect Turkmenistan’s economy. Disruptions to supplies from a key trading partner have triggered a sharp increase in prices for food, household chemicals, building materials, and cigarettes. According to retailers, this may only be the beginning as existing stocks are running low and prices continue to climb. Despite having domestic production, Turkmenistan remains heavily dependent on imports from Iran, particularly for food products, household chemicals, and construction materials. The conflict in Iran has disrupted established logistics routes, causing prices for several categories of goods to rise significantly across Turkmenistan. Vegetables and citrus fruits have seen some of the steepest increases. Prices for potatoes and cucumbers have risen by three to three-and-a-half times, while citrus fruits have become about 50% more expensive. Cigarette prices have already increased by roughly 40%, and traders warn that further rises are likely. At the end of February, a kilogram of potatoes imported from Iran cost between $1.45 and $1.74 in Ashgabat. The price has now risen to $4.93 per kilogram. A similar trend has been observed for cucumbers, whose price increased from $2.32 to $4.93 per kilogram. Citrus fruits have become even more expensive. Oranges have risen in price from $2.61 to $5.22 per kilogram, while mandarins have increased from $3.48 to $6.38. Residents of Turkmenistan are also facing higher prices for household chemicals. Although the increase has not yet been as dramatic, retailers say the upward trend is clear. Tobacco products have also risen significantly in price, with cigarettes increasing by an average of about 35%. The construction sector has also been affected. Prices for cement, wood, metal, and other building materials have increased by around 40%. These increases are linked to disruptions in established supply routes. Some construction materials were previously imported from the United Arab Emirates via Iran. Businesses are now being forced to search for alternative logistics routes, including through Georgia and Azerbaijan, which significantly increases transportation costs. On March 4, customs regulation issues were discussed at a meeting of Turkmenistan’s Security Council. However, according to a report by the state news agency TDH, the head of the State Customs Service, Maksat Khudaygulyev, did not address the current supply disruptions. His remarks focused on the planned development of the agency. Price increases linked to events in Iran are not new for Turkmenistan. A similar situation was observed in the summer during the 12-day war. Supply problems also emerged in the fall of 2024, when Iran temporarily closed its border. During that period, vegetable oil prices increased significantly and shortages were reported.

4 days ago

e-Commerce

Almaty Hosts Ranking Business Day Discussion on Whether E-Commerce Could Become Kazakhstan’s “New Oil”

On February 26, Almaty hosted the first Ranking Business Day, an expert discussion in an open-talk format dedicated to the development of e-commerce in Kazakhstan. The event was organized by the analytical platform Ranking.kz and the communications agency 2BAgency. The central question of the meeting was whether e-commerce could become a new driver of economic growth in Kazakhstan. Sedred Asretov, CEO of Ranking.kz, presented the results of a study on the country’s e-commerce market. According to the data, the volume of retail e-commerce in Kazakhstan reached $6.4 billion in 2024, an increase of 29% compared with the previous year. “E-commerce today is not just a new sales channel. It is a full-fledged ecosystem that combines payments, logistics, marketing, and services,” Asretov said. He emphasized that more than 90% of sales on marketplaces come from small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), making e-commerce an important tool for supporting entrepreneurs across the country. Small and medium-sized businesses currently account for about 40% of Kazakhstan’s GDP and 70% of investment in fixed capital. Marketplaces have become a key sales channel for SMBs, allowing companies to reach broad audiences without major spending on IT infrastructure, marketing, or logistics. This is particularly important for entrepreneurs in regional areas where traditional sales channels are limited. At the same time, electronic trading platforms make a significant contribution to the state budget. According to the study, Kaspi.kz ranked first in tax payments, contributing approximately $276 million in 2025, a 3.5% increase from the previous year. Wildberries ranked second with $116 million in tax payments, followed by Ozon with approximately $30 million. During two discussion sessions, experts and representatives of government agencies, the banking sector, and major e-commerce companies discussed key market challenges. Among the main issues raised were: unequal competition between local and foreign platforms; the growing influence of foreign marketplaces; the need for systematic regulation of the industry. Particular attention was given to discussion of a new consumer protection law. Deputy Azat Peruashev of Kazakhstan’s lower house of parliament, the Mazhilis, said lawmakers had proposed requiring foreign marketplaces not only to pay VAT but also to cooperate with Kazakhstani manufacturers. “We approached the Ministry of Trade and Integration with a proposal to oblige foreign marketplaces to cooperate with Kazakhstani manufacturers. However, we were told that such conditions cannot be imposed. But this is a negotiation process, and the state should take a stronger position,” he said. Experts also discussed potential future changes in the market. Damir Meyrambekov, managing director for e-commerce at Kazpost, said a new trading platform created in partnership with one of the largest Chinese marketplaces may appear in Kazakhstan in the near future. Evgenia Savenkova-Petrichenko, head of the Wildberries commerce department in Kazakhstan, also commented on reports that the company may purchase a Kazakh financial organization. She did not deny the possibility but said it was too early to make any official statements. The organizers said they intend to make Ranking Business Day a regular platform for discussing key issues related to the digital economy....

4 days ago

Iran

Evacuation Through Turkmenistan: Dozens of Foreigners Leave Iran as Assistance Conditions Vary

Amid the ongoing military conflict involving Iran, foreign nationals have begun leaving the country by land. One of the main evacuation routes has been through neighboring Turkmenistan, although the conditions for departure and the level of assistance provided to citizens of different countries have varied. Foreign citizens began leaving Iran after strikes were launched on its territory. With Iranian airspace closed, evacuation has only been possible by land. According to diplomatic sources in Kazakhstan, Russia, Uzbekistan, and South Korea, about 60 foreign nationals have already left Iran via Turkmenistan. Kazakhstan’s Minister of Transport, Nurlan Sauranbayev, said that on March 2, 18 Kazakh citizens were successfully evacuated from the northern Iranian city of Gorgan. The closest available route was through the Turkmen border. According to the minister, Turkmen authorities granted permission for the group to cross the border, although the specific checkpoint used was not disclosed. Serakhs remains the main transit crossing in this direction, while other checkpoints remained closed until March 2. On the same day, a group of eight Russian citizens crossed the border through the Serakhs checkpoint. According to Igor Samoshkin, head of the consular department of the Russian Embassy, Turkmen officials met the arrivals at the border and arranged transportation to Ashgabat as well as hotel accommodation. Russian diplomats later assisted the group with further travel arrangements. On March 3, the group flew home on an S7 Airlines flight. On March 3, 13 citizens of Uzbekistan crossed the border in an organized manner through the same Serakhs checkpoint. According to the Dunyo news agency, they were met by Uzbek embassy staff in official vehicles. After the Gaudan-Bajgiran crossing opened, diplomats also began meeting their citizens there. However, the subsequent route taken by the Uzbek nationals was not specified. There are currently no direct flights between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and the distance from Serakhs to the nearest land crossing between the two countries, Farab-Alat, is about 460 kilometers. On the same day, a group of 23 South Korean citizens entered Turkmenistan. According to The Korea Times, they were accompanied by South Korean diplomats throughout their transit in the country before departing from Ashgabat on individual flights. Representatives of the South Korean embassy noted the prompt response of Turkmenistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as assistance with immigration procedures, consular support, accommodation, and flight reservations. Foreign citizens require a visa to transit through Turkmenistan, and this requirement has not been completely waived even during the evacuation. As Russian diplomat Igor Samoshkin explained, those seeking to leave Iran through Turkmenistan must first contact their country’s embassy in Iran and submit documents for a visa. The diplomatic mission then sends a request to the Turkmen authorities, after which further coordination takes place between Ashgabat and the relevant embassies accredited in Turkmenistan. Turkmen authorities directly accompanied only the Russian citizens. For other foreign nationals, their respective diplomatic missions were responsible for organizing further travel arrangements. The reasons for the differences in the level of assistance have not been publicly explained. It...

4 days ago

Parliamentary Reform

Tokayev Floats Vice President Post at National Kurultai as Kazakhstan Weighs Political Overhaul

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev used the fifth session of Kazakhstan’s National Kurultai on January 20 to propose creating a vice president’s post and embedding the new institution in the constitution, as part of a broader package of political reforms aimed at reshaping the country’s system of governance. Under the proposal, the vice president would be appointed by the president and confirmed by parliament by a simple majority vote. The president would define the vice president’s authority, which could include representing Kazakhstan at international forums and negotiations, representing the head of state in parliament, and engaging with domestic and international organizations in political, scientific, cultural, and educational fields. “The establishment of this position will stabilize the process of state governance, and will also bring final clarity regarding the hierarchy of power,” Tokayev said at the Kurultai. Kazakhstan does not currently have a vice president. Executive authority is vested in the presidency, while the government is led by a prime minister, with succession procedures defined by the constitution. Tokayev said the key provisions governing the new post, including its functions, should be enshrined directly in the constitution. The vice presidency was presented as part of a wider administrative restructuring. Tokayev said several administrative structures that support the current parliament would be abolished, along with the position of state counselor. He added that the functions, structure, and management system of the Presidential Administration would be reformed in line with practical needs. The Kurultai session in Kyzylorda took place as the administration advances a more far-reaching overhaul of the legislature. Tokayev has promoted a transition from Kazakhstan’s bicameral parliament, composed of the Senate and the Mazhilis, to a unicameral system, arguing that the change would simplify governance and shorten decision-making chains. [caption id="attachment_42476" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] President Tokayev at the National Kurultai; image: Akorda.kz[/caption] He outlined parameters for a future unicameral parliament, saying it could consist of around 145 deputies, be led by three vice-chairs, and operate with no more than eight standing committees. He also proposed renaming the legislature the “Kurultai,” saying the term reflects historical traditions of popular representation. The parliamentary reform agenda is being developed by a working group that began reviewing constitutional options in late 2025. The idea of moving to a unicameral system was first raised in Tokayev’s national address on September 8, 2025. On January 19, Tokayev held a meeting with the working group on parliamentary reform in Astana, where aides reported that the group had reviewed constitutional approaches to reshaping the legislature and discussed key approaches to constitutional reform based on proposals from citizens, experts, and civil organizations. Tokayev has tied the parliamentary overhaul to a nationwide vote. He reaffirmed that citizens would make the final decision through a referendum and said Kazakhstan is targeting 2027 for a public vote on abolishing the Senate and moving to a unicameral legislature. The latest reform proposals build on constitutional changes adopted after the unrest of January 2022. In June 2022, Kazakhstan held a nationwide referendum on proposed constitutional amendments, with more...

2 months ago