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Middle Powers

Which Central Asian States Qualify as Middle Powers in 2025?

As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Central Asia’s states are emerging as active regional players. This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. 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This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. Economic Power Economic autonomy is a defining attribute of middle-power capability, enabling states to project influence, sustain policy independence, and finance external engagement. In Central Asia, dependence on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and remittances often reflects constrained fiscal capacity and limited domestic capital formation, while diversified, resilient economies underpin strategic autonomy. Key indicators—GDP per capita, credit ratings, debt sustainability, and export diversification—illuminate the region’s economic hierarchy. Kazakhstan stands as Central Asia’s only consolidated economic middle power. Resource-backed growth, a prudent fiscal regime, and a sovereign wealth fund (the National Fund of Kazakhstan) have anchored macroeconomic stability. With a “BBB” credit rating or equivalent from major agencies, Kazakhstan demonstrates sound debt management and policy credibility. Ongoing diversification efforts under the new economic policies—from renewables to financial modernization—aim to reduce hydrocarbon dependence and deepen integration into global supply chains. Its role as a trans-Caspian logistics hub enhances both strategic and commercial influence. Uzbekistan, by contrast, is an emerging frontier market propelled by post-2017 reforms in currency liberalization, taxation, and state-enterprise restructuring. Rapid GDP growth and expanding private-sector activity mark its trajectory toward fiscal autonomy, though continued ODA inflows averaging around $1.1 billion to 1.3 billion annually, primarily from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the World Bank, and bilateral partners such as Japan, the United States, and the European Union, highlight its residual dependence on external concessional financing. To achieve genuine middle power status, Uzbekistan must roughly double its real economic output over the next decade, a scale of growth aligned with the shift...

Aviation

What’s Holding Back Kazakhstan’s Air Transport Market?

Kazakhstan’s aviation industry has posted steady growth in recent years. Over the past four years, passenger and cargo traffic have risen by more than 36% and 23% respectively, with an actively expanding route network. The state’s aviation development strategy prioritizes infrastructure upgrades, improved safety standards, and expanded international cooperation. Yet, despite these advances, several systemic barriers continue to prevent Kazakhstan from realizing its potential as a Central Asian aviation hub. These challenges were discussed at the New Silk Way International Transport and Logistics Business Forum and the annual TransLogistica Kazakhstan 2025 exhibition. Experts agree that Kazakhstan’s air transport market ranks among the fastest-growing globally, driven in part by geopolitical shifts that have boosted the volume of Chinese and European transit flights through its airspace. Industry Trends and Infrastructure Expansion A major airport modernization effort is underway, targeting key cities such as Astana, Almaty, Aktobe, Shymkent, and Karaganda. Renovations have already been completed in Aktau, Pavlodar, and Balkhash, while new terminals have opened in Almaty, Kyzylorda, and Shymkent. New airports are under construction in Kenderli, Zaisan, Katon-Karagai, and Arkalyk. Total investment in infrastructure has exceeded $2.9 billion. According to the Civil Aviation Committee, in 2025, Kazakh airlines transported a record 15 million passengers and 171,000 tons of cargo. Transit flights accounted for 414 million aircraft-kilometers. Deputy Chairman Sarsen Zharylgasov has stated that the country now operates 56 domestic routes, up 9% year-on-year, and maintains air links with 30 countries. International Routes and Regional Competition In 2025, 33 new international routes were launched, connecting Kazakhstan to cities including Budapest, Munich, Cairo, Shanghai, Phuket, and Delhi. Currently, 140 international routes operate under the Open Skies policy, which has applied to 15 airports since 2019. Looking ahead to 2026, new routes are planned to major global hubs, such as Singapore, Tokyo, Rome, Vienna, and New York. The long-anticipated direct U.S. flight hinges on a successful completion of the FAA's CAT-1 audit, following Kazakhstan’s passage of the preliminary technical assessment in August 2024. The 2022 air transport agreement between the U.S. and Kazakhstan remains a key step toward this goal. Air Astana plans to operate the route using a Boeing 787 Dreamliner, though delivery has been delayed to Q2 2026 due to production backlogs. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan is ramping up its own ambitions. During President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s 2025 visit to the US, Tashkent signed a deal with Boeing for 22 Dreamliners. Analysts suggest this could intensify regional competition and enhance Uzbekistan’s appeal as a transit hub. Airport Bottlenecks and Tariff Issues Despite progress in large cities, many regional airports remain hampered by chronic underinvestment and outdated tariff policies. According to Zharylgasov, tariffs at several airports have not been updated in over two decades. “We are working to completely deregulate tariffs, but the Agency for the Protection and Development of Competition does not yet support us,” he noted. Eliminating state control over airport tariffs could introduce market-based pricing, attract investors, and improve profitability, particularly for regional hubs. Digitalization Drives Efficiency Digital transformation is another key priority. Kazakhstan...

Tourism

New “Air Gates”: How Two Airports Will Transform Eastern Kazakhstan

The construction of new airports in the Katon-Karagai and Zaisan districts of eastern Kazakhstan is entering its final phase. For these remote region, once accessible only by winding mountain roads, the arrival of runways, terminals, and control towers marks a historic milestone. But these projects are more than just transportation infrastructure. They are poised to become engines of regional development, restoring the area's appeal to both tourists and investors. An Airport in the Mountains Katon-Karagai is the heart of Kazakhstan’s Altai region. Between the villages of Belkaragai and Ornek, a large-scale construction effort is underway to build a modern airport complex. Spanning 266 hectares, the project includes a 2,260 meter runway, a terminal, a command-and-control center, and state-of-the-art navigation and meteorological equipment. According to project manager Nurzhan Eskendirov, 80% of the work is now complete. “Next summer, we will lay the final layer of asphalt. This airport is not just a construction project, it’s a new chapter in the region’s history,” he told TSA. [caption id="attachment_38662" align="aligncenter" width="300"] @gov.kz[/caption] For local residents, the construction has become the event of the decade. Workers from across the country have joined the effort. “The nature here is simply amazing,” said one of the builders, Manash Baigonov. “I want people from all over the world to be able to see it.” Katon-Karagai is renowned for its pristine lakes, snow-covered peaks, and protected nature reserves. The airport will drastically reduce travel time, making the region far more accessible to tourists who previously faced hours of rugged road travel. Zaisan: The Eastern Gateway In the Zaisan district, another major airport project is nearing completion near the village of Satpay. The runway and apron are fully finished, the drainage system is being finalized, and terminal and control tower construction is ongoing. This airport is expected to play a vital role in expanding cross-border tourism and logistics. Currently, Zaisan receives about 20,000 tourists annually, a number that could increase four- to five-fold once the airport opens. Regular flights are planned to Ust-Kamenogorsk, Almaty, and Astana, with future international routes to Urumqi in China and Lake Kanass. This would position Zaisan as Kazakhstan’s “eastern gateway,” linking the country to China not only by road, but also by air. “The airport is creating new routes, but more importantly, it’s creating meaning,” said one of the project’s designers. “It’s not just a runway, it’s the take-off of a region.” [caption id="attachment_38663" align="aligncenter" width="300"] @gov.kz[/caption] From Roads to People Airport development is also driving broader infrastructure upgrades. A new road to the village of Urunkhaika on Lake Markakol, planned in partnership with China’s Heilongjiang Province Bada Road, will connect even more of Altai’s secluded landscapes to the broader transport network. Until now, many of these areas were accessible only by footpaths. These infrastructure projects are transforming not just the regional map, but daily life. In Katon-Karagai, which was once served only by narrow serpentine roads and sporadic buses, officials are now preparing for the arrival of investors, climbers, photographers, and nature lovers....

Airports

Uzbekistan Begins Construction of New International Airport Near Tashkent

Uzbekistan has launched one of its largest infrastructure initiatives to date, the construction of a new international airport in the Tashkent region. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev inaugurated the project, which is being implemented by an international consortium of investors. A National-Scale Project The new airport is intended to strengthen Uzbekistan’s aviation sector and establish the country as a key transit hub between East and West. “Ultimately, our goal is to turn Uzbekistan into a major aviation hub connecting East and West, North and South,” Mirziyoyev stated. He underscored that developing transport infrastructure and modernizing air traffic management remain strategic priorities. The project is being led by a consortium comprising Vision Invest (Saudi Arabia, 45%), Sojitz (Japan, 30%), Incheon International Airport Corporation (South Korea, 15%), and Uzbekistan Airports (10%). Construction will unfold in four phases. The first stage, with an estimated cost of $2.5 billion, includes building the terminal complex and airfield. Once completed, the airport will have the capacity to handle up to 20 million passengers annually, process 129,000 tons of cargo, and support up to 30 take-offs and landings per hour. It will feature 14 telescopic ramps and parking for 62 aircraft across a 1,300-hectare site in the Urtachirchik and Kuyichirchik districts of the Tashkent region. Technology, Sustainability, and Connectivity Designed to fully comply with International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) standards, the airport will incorporate state-of-the-art air navigation and meteorological systems to ensure operational reliability in all weather conditions. Environmental sustainability is a key focus. It will be the first airport in Central Asia constructed in line with “green” building principles. The passenger terminal will house a 46,000 square meter duty-free zone. The facility will serve as part of a broader multimodal transport hub. It will connect directly to major regional highways, Tashkent-Samarkand, Tashkent-Andijan, and Tashkent-Bostanlyk and will feature a dedicated high-speed rail station and a shuttle service linking Tashkent and the planned city of New Tashkent. Officials project that the new airport could generate more than $27 billion in revenue and create thousands of jobs across sectors including construction, tourism, and logistics. Strengthening Uzbekistan’s Regional Aviation Role Passenger traffic in Tashkent has tripled over the past eight years, reaching 9 million annually. By 2040, it is expected to rise to 24 million. The current airport, limited to 11 million passengers and constrained by its urban location, cannot be expanded, prompting the decision to pursue the new megaproject. Nationwide, Uzbekistan is upgrading seven international airports and has built new terminals in Muynak, Kokand, Zaamin, Shakhrisabz, Saryasyk, and Sohe. The aviation sector has also seen increased competition: the number of airlines has grown to 15, and the aircraft fleet has expanded from 26 to 105 units. Within five years, officials aim to boost the fleet to 180 aircraft, expand routes to 230 destinations, and increase annual flights to 200,000.

Airports

Japan to Build Central Asia’s Largest Airport in Uzbekistan by 2028

Japan’s Sojitz Corporation is set to launch one of Central Asia’s most ambitious infrastructure projects: the construction of a new international airport in Tashkent. According to Express Asia, construction will begin in 2025 and is expected to be completed by 2028, with a total project cost estimated at $1 billion. The airport will be developed through a public-private partnership (PPP) with Saudi Arabia’s Vision Invest. Japan’s investment is projected to reach several hundred million dollars. Once completed, the airport will have a capacity of up to 20 million passengers annually and support more than 40 take-offs and landings per hour, making it the largest aviation hub in Central Asia. Sojitz brings experience in airport development from projects in Japan’s Kumamoto and Okinawa prefectures, as well as on the Pacific island of Palau. In Uzbekistan, its activities extend beyond aviation: in partnership with Turkey’s Rönesans International, the company is planning an 800-bed hospital in Samarkand, a 1 GW wind power plant, and a 1.6 GW thermal power plant. Driven by consistent GDP growth of around 6% per year, Uzbekistan continues to attract Japanese investment, bolstered by favorable tax policies and a 15% corporate tax rate. The number of Japanese companies operating in the country has doubled over the past five years to 54. Among them, Toyota Tsusho, through Eurus Energy Holdings, is developing a 500 MW wind power project, while Marubeni is collaborating with UAE firms on a wastewater treatment facility. In 2024, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev met with a Japanese delegation led by Tadashi Maeda, Chairman of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), and representatives of Sojitz. The parties agreed on a three-year cooperation program with JBIC and a strategic roadmap with Sojitz for future projects in high-tech sectors. JBIC currently supports over $3.7 billion in joint ventures across Uzbekistan’s petrochemical, textile, energy, and infrastructure sectors. Sojitz also reaffirmed its commitment to expanding its footprint in the country, including its role in the Syrdarya II IPP project, one of Uzbekistan’s largest planned power generation facilities.

Airports

Kyrgyzstan’s Kazarman Airport Reopens After 20-Year Hiatus

Kazarman Airport in Kyrgyzstan’s southern Jalal-Abad region has reopened after more than 20 years, following a major reconstruction project by JSC Airports of Kyrgyzstan. Located near the village of Kazarman, the airport is now ready to receive flights once again. The renovation included repairs to the 1,840 meter runway, taxiways, aircraft parking areas, and the passenger terminal. The facility can accommodate aircraft weighing up to 22 tons and currently operates during daylight hours. Built in 1985, Kazarman Airport previously served flights to Bishkek, Osh, and Jalal-Abad. On August 12, state-owned Asman Airlines made its first flight to the renovated airport, and regular flights to Bishkek are scheduled to begin in early September. “The return of Kazarman Airport to operation is an important step for the development of the country’s transport network. Now residents and visitors of the Jalal-Abad region will be able to get to Bishkek faster and more conveniently,” said Manasbek Samidinov, Chairman of the Board of JSC Airports of Kyrgyzstan. The reopening comes as Kyrgyzstan continues to expand its aviation infrastructure. In May 2025, construction began on a new international airport in Jalal-Abad, the country’s third-largest city, designed to handle passenger and cargo aircraft including Boeing 737s and Airbus A320/A321s. At the groundbreaking, President Sadyr Japarov highlighted rising demand for both domestic and international flights. Since 2021, passenger traffic has grown by 46% and the number of flights by 31%, he said. Asman Airlines has restored all domestic routes linking Bishkek with Talas, Karakol, and Kerben, and in 2024 added two Bombardier Dash 8 Q400 short-haul aircraft to its fleet. The Kazarman and Jalal-Abad projects are part of a broader strategy to modernize Kyrgyzstan’s airports. Work began in February 2025 on a new complex at Osh International Airport, and Karakol International Airport and Talas Airport have already opened. Renovations are also underway at Issyk-Kul International Airport and Naryn Airport.