Balancing Regional Integration Amid Global Rivalries

Central Asia has become a focal point for world and regional powers such as China, Russia, the European Union, the United States, and Turkey. Amid geopolitical uncertainty and a shifting global order, regional cooperation seems to be a top priority for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan in their foreign policy. The problem, however, is that the absence of a unified regional identity among Central Asian nations poses a major obstacle to their ambitions to strengthen regional integrations. They have different views on their regional identity due to their unique cultures, histories, politics, and economies. But in spite of that, on June 9, in the Kazakh capital of Astana, leaders of the five Central Asian countries gathered to discuss closer economic cooperation, stability and security in the region. They sought to expand ties in trade, industry, transport and logistics, energy, agriculture, as well as in the water management. As a result of the summit, regional leaders signed several key agreements, including the Roadmap for development of regional cooperation for 2025-2027, as well as the Conceptual framework of development of regional cooperation Central Asia 2040. These documents indicate that the regional integration will be a long-term process that will last for decades. In the meantime, Central Asian states will almost certainly continue strengthening bilateral ties. The Consultative Meetings of the leaders of Central Asian countries gave Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan another opportunity to deepen cooperation in various fields. The two nations, who signed an agreement on allied relations in 2022, announced their plans to adopt a strategic partnership program until 2034, and also to jointly launch several big economic and energy project. Prior to the meeting in Astana, presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan held talks with Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev. They were also scheduled to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, but he canceled his visit to Astana after the Japan Meteorological Agency issued a warning of a potential earthquake in the Nankai Trough. Unlike him, Josep Borrell, Vice-President of the European Commission and High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, visited Central Asia in early August. He traveled to Kazakhstan and neighboring Kyrgyzstan– a country that signed the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with the European Union on June 25. Although both nations are members of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Moscow’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine has allowed other actors, including the European Union, to strengthen its presence in the strategically important region. While the EU’s goals in Central Asia are mainly related to energy, Japan’s plans to expand cooperation with the five regional countries serve as Tokyo’s strategic tool to counterbalance China's growing influence in the region. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, seeks to create a strategic energy bridge linking Central Asia and Europe via the South Caucasus. That is why Baku’s collaboration with Central Asian countries in the energy sector has become more crucial than ever. It is no surprise...

Central Asia’s “C5” Security Bloc Can Become a Reality

Central Asia is an emerging economic region that offers the world immense natural resources, a viable trade corridor, and a young, educated workforce. On a diplomatic level, major global powers have sometimes chosen to engage with the five Central Asian nations (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) as a bloc rather than individually, thus giving rise to the term C5+1. The United States, Germany, Japan, and the European Union have C5+1 initiatives grouping the five countries as a block. The C5+1 is not entirely a Western construct as, in addition to Japan, China also has its own C5+1 launched in 2023 that mirrors the U.S. version. Russia’s economic and security cooperation platforms are not all-inclusive when comes to Central Asia and include other CIS countries, such as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Moldova.   Cooperation vis-à-vis Afghanistan shows a united front on regional security On May 18, 2024, the heads of the Security Councils of Central Asian countries gathered in Astana, Kazakhstan, for a meeting aimed at enhancing regional security and cooperation. This high-level assembly brought together senior officials from the five states to discuss pressing security challenges and explore collaborative solutions. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who chaired the meeting, impressed that Afghanistan should be the focus of the region’s common attention as Central Asia’s most dire security challenges relate to this southern neighbor. Afghanistan has been a focal point for the spread of violent extremism and oppressive ideologies, impacting global peace and security. The country's history of conflict and provision of safe havens to extremist groups to train fighters and spread their ideologies have long posed threats to neighboring countries and beyond. In Central Asia, this has led to increased terrorism, with groups like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and ISIS-Khorasan exploiting Afghanistan's instability to establish bases and train fighters. They have carried out cross-border attacks, spreading violence into countries such as Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Additionally, the dissemination of radical ideologies from Afghanistan has recruited and radicalized individuals in Central Asia, contributing to other local insurgencies and destabilizing the region. An attack on a Russian concert hall in March 2024 by ISIS resulted in 144 deaths.  This event led President Tokayev to note that “there remains high risks associated with the activity of international terrorist organizations”. Narcotics trafficking funds terrorist operations in Afghanistan, fuels region-wide organized crime and increases addiction rates. Effective border control is essential to prevent the movements of militants and drug traffickers from Afghanistan into Central Asia, and thus enhance regional security and stability. In addition to combative and preventive measures, the UN wants Afghanistan to be brought into the international fold to manage these threats. Central Asian countries can facilitate this transition and have already made their own individual bilateral efforts to integrate the “Islamic Republic” into the international arena. Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev, for instance, proposed the creation of a UN Regional Center for Sustainable Development Goals for Central Asia and Afghanistan, to be based in Kazakhstan.   Regional unity helps withstand unwanted external...