C5+1 - The Times Of Central Asia

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U.S.-Central Asia Engagement

Breaking into Project Vault: A U.S. Role for Central Asia’s Strategic Minerals

The Trump Administration has decided to go head-to-head with Beijing to secure an independent supply chain for critical minerals and insulate U.S. industries from supply shocks. Among many initiatives, the United States launched Project Vault on February 2 to establish a U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve. The public-private stockpile is expected to secure essential minerals and metals for U.S. national security purposes and high-technology industries. The effort formalizes the U.S. strategy to diversify critical mineral supply chains away from rival China and, in the process, harness broader global capacity. As part of this effort, mineral-rich Central Asia is already factoring heavily in U.S. foreign and economic policy thinking. Participating in the front row of the 2026 Critical Minerals Summit, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan were invited to engage in Washington’s global effort to build resilient global supply chains. But Project Vault is a critical and separate component of the administration’s focus. Formally approved by the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) on February 2, Project Vault will be backed with up to $10 billion in long-term financing and an additional $2 billion in private sector participation. In sites across the country, the initiative will establish stores of critical minerals and rare earth elements essential for aerospace, defense, semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, renewables, and electric vehicles. The stockpile’s structure will be operated as a public-private partnership that enables manufacturers, trading firms, and private capital providers to jointly participate. Rare earths, copper, lithium, titanium, scandium, gallium, and germanium are all key minerals highlighted by the U.S. Department of the Interior that underpin modern technologies and demonstrate U.S. vulnerability to supply chain disruptions. Why a Strategic Mineral Reserve? The initiative is a direct response to perceived risks posed by China’s relative control of global critical mineral supply chains and markets, as well as Beijing’s use of trade restrictions, protectionism, and the weaponization of access to certain critical minerals. China controls a commanding share of the mining, refining, and processing of rare earths and related materials. Due to years of strategic planning and investment, Beijing has leveraged state subsidies and pricing controls to develop and secure between 80%-100% of rare earth processing capacities that have dominated international markets and disincentivized competitors for decades. Past export controls and export-license restrictions imposed by Beijing have underscored how critical mineral supply can become a tool of geopolitical leverage. China has at times restricted rare earth exports to Japan, Sweden and the United States in what is defined by many as supply-chain protectionism. Such actions can disrupt U.S. production for industries that rely on stable supplies to manufacture semiconductors, defense systems, and clean energy technologies. Project Vault is, therefore, conceived not merely as a reserve but as a mechanism to stabilize U.S. markets, to reduce reliance on China, and to signal a long-term commitment to diversified supply chains. Much like the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve acts to cushion energy price shocks, the mineral reserve is expected to serve as a similar buffer. Operational and Financial Dimensions Project Vault’s financing model expects a...

B5+1

B5+1 Forum Opens as U.S. Companies Expand Economic Footprint in Central Asia

Business leaders and government officials from Central Asia and the United States gathered in Kyrgyzstan’s capital on February 4 for the start of the second B5+1 Business Forum. Co-organized by the Kyrgyz government and the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), the event is intended to bring together private companies, business associations, officials, and experts interested in expanding U.S.–Central Asia commercial ties. More than 50 U.S. companies are participating in the event. The B5+1 is the business-track counterpart to the C5+1 diplomatic format that links the United States with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The B5+1 brings companies and policymakers together to identify barriers to investment and propose cross-border regulatory changes. This week’s meeting in Bishkek follows the inaugural B5+1 forum held in Almaty on March 14–15, 2024, which drew more than 250 stakeholders from across Central Asia and the United States. It produced 21 private-sector recommendations aimed at easing trade, improving regulations, and building regional economic integration. The Bishkek agenda is built around reviewing progress on those recommendations and setting priorities for the next phase of work. Central Asian officials have used the event to signal interest in region-wide coordination rather than country-by-country deals. In comments made in Bishkek, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Industry and Construction, Ersaiyn Nagaspaev, emphasized that foreign investors increasingly assess Central Asia as a single market, reflecting a push to align regulations and investment conditions across borders. Nagaspaev noted that more than 600 U.S. companies currently operate in Kazakhstan. Kyrgyzstan, meanwhile, used the forum to highlight domestic economic performance within that regional context. In a speech at the forum, Kyrgyzstan’s First Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, Daniyar Amangeldiev, said Kyrgyzstan’s economy grew by 11.1% in 2025, which he described as one of the highest growth rates in the region. Addressing the forum, U.S. Special Envoy for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor stated that the United States intends to expand its economic engagement with Central Asia. “The private sector, not intergovernmental agreements, will become the key instrument of interaction," he told those in attendance, identifying electronic commerce, artificial intelligence, critical minerals, agriculture, and transport infrastructure as priority areas. Gor noted that the American companies present at the forum represent the largest and most comprehensive U.S. commercial delegation ever to visit Central Asia. The U.S. recognizes the importance of Central Asia in global trade and connectivity, he stated. "The United States is open for business. We're open for peace. We're opening to strengthen our ties around the world. So that’s why it's fitting that the first C5 event in 2026 is this B5 + 1 forum,” Gor said, linking the Bishkek discussions to economic commitments made at the C5+1 summit in Washington in November 2025. “The Transport Corridor for Peace and Prosperity will provide reliable connectivity from Central Asia through the South Caucasus to global markets,” Gor said. “This is a historic opportunity to strengthen economic integration and long-term prosperity across the region.” During his visit to Bishkek, Gor also met with Kyrgyz President...

Central Asian politics

The “Central Asia 2030” Roundtable in Astana: From External Interest to Regional Choice

Discussions about Central Asia’s long-term strategic future are increasingly shifting from a focus on external attention to one of growing regional agency. On Monday, Astana International University hosted the first roundtable in the series Central Asia 2030: Strategic Horizons and Regional Choices. Speakers included Andrew D’Anieri, Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; Yerkin Tukumov, Special Representative of the President of Kazakhstan; Ambassador-at-Large Zulfiya Suleimenova; and Dauren Aben, Deputy Director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of Kazakhstan. Pragmatism, Regional Choice, and the Logic of the “Grand Bargain” In his remarks, Andrew D’Anieri emphasized that Central Asia is increasingly viewed in the U.S. not as a peripheral zone but as an independent strategic partner. He noted that “environmental, water, and climate issues considered within a regional framework are fully supported by the U.S.” However, he added that “long-term commercial and investment projects are impossible without long-term stability, which in turn requires coordination between neighbors, engagement on sensitive issues, and pragmatic regional cooperation.” D’Anieri also pointed to Afghanistan as “an integral part of regional logic,” and described formats such as C5+1 as evidence of Central Asia’s growing subjectivity. He highlighted the first-ever C5+1 summit at the presidential level in Washington as a landmark event, especially under the administration of Donald Trump, known for its preference for bilateral over multilateral formats. Trump and the Possibility of a Visit: Only with a “Big Deal” When asked whether a visit by President Trump to Central Asia is realistic, D’Anieri offered a candid assessment: “Such a visit is only possible if there is a large, symbolically and economically significant deal.” Whether in aviation, technology, or infrastructure, these high-visibility projects are typically what draw Trump’s engagement. He added that “the region has work to do in developing a package of initiatives that could interest the U.S. president and justify a high-level visit.” Potential areas include mining, transport, and logistics. Reframing Afghanistan’s Role in the Region Special Representative Yerkin Tukumov focused on the importance of reframing the region’s relationship with Afghanistan. For too long, he said, Afghanistan has been viewed primarily “through the prism of security threats,” resulting in a narrow and often misleading approach. Tukumov argued for a broader, more pragmatic view that considers economic, humanitarian, and cross-border dimensions. He described the C5+1 format not as a replacement for bilateral diplomacy, but as “an additional level of coordination where Central Asia can speak with a more consolidated voice without losing national autonomy in foreign policy.” He stressed the need to move beyond “ideological and declarative approaches,” toward practical, interest-based mechanisms of cooperation. Ecology, Water, and the Case for a Global Water Agency Ambassador-at-Large Zulfiya Suleimenova addressed the strategic urgency of regional coordination on water and climate. She emphasized that “water issues are transboundary in nature,” and that efforts to resolve them solely within national frameworks are bound to fall short. “Regional coordination in Central Asia is not a political slogan, but a functional necessity,” she said. Suleimenova argued that jointly promoting...

Banking

Kazakhstan’s Banking System and the Logic of Early Enforcement

Kazakhstan’s growth model depends on uninterrupted access to international finance. Because its largest energy and mining projects rely on foreign capital, hard-currency financing, and offshore banking channels, confidence in the integrity of its banking system is not just a regulatory issue; it is a macroeconomic constraint. This reliance is structural. Export revenues are concentrated in globally-priced commodities—especially oil (up to 60% of total exports in recent years), and uranium (40%+ of global output)—linking fiscal stability directly to hard-currency liquidity and correspondent banking access. In that context, correspondent banking is a systemic requirement underpinning international payments and trade. Because international banks incorporate sanctions exposure and AML/CFT risk into their assessments, adverse risk perceptions can trigger de-risking behavior that raises costs and slows flows. Astana is now courting U.S. and European investment in multibillion-dollar initiatives, including the Trans-Caspian/Middle Corridor and projects related to rare earth and critical minerals supply chains. This further increases Kazakhstan’s exposure to Western compliance standards and regulatory scrutiny. With a growth model heavily driven by foreign capital, Kazakhstan understands that perceived weaknesses in banking system compliance would not halt investment outright, but would translate into higher funding costs and reduced appetite in international capital markets. Sanctions Exposure After 2022: Structural, Not Tactical Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sharply increased Kazakhstan’s exposure to global sanctions enforcement. Geography, membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, and dense trade and infrastructure ties with Russia made Kazakhstan a focal point for concerns over re-exports and sanctions leakage. At the same time, its border with China—an important source of dual-use goods—has added another layer of scrutiny, even as reporting later showed that China-origin cargo bound for Russia was, in documented cases, routed without physically entering Kazakhstan, despite being linked to it in trade flows. Western sanctions reshaped logistics faster than enforcement capacity could adapt. Restrictions on shipping, insurance, and financial services increased reliance on overland transit routes through Central Asia, drawing attention to Kazakhstan, even where violations were difficult to substantiate. Western investigations later showed that EU-origin dual-use goods continued to reach Russia through intermediary channels, underscoring enforcement gaps beyond Kazakhstan itself. For Kazakhstan, however, heightened scrutiny translated directly into financial risk, regardless of intent. In the logic of global compliance, perception can be as consequential as proof. Early Intervention as Risk Management Since 2022, Kazakhstan’s response has evolved from declaratory neutrality to early, containment-oriented enforcement. This shift has been driven less by foreign-policy alignment than by a calculation that even isolated violations can carry disproportionate financial consequences. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has repeatedly emphasized that sanctions violations carry direct economic consequences for Kazakhstan, warning in public remarks that non-compliance could expose the country to secondary sanctions affecting trade, finance, and investment flows. By framing compliance as a matter of macroeconomic risk management rather than geopolitical positioning, the government signaled that enforcement would prioritize financial stability over short-term commercial convenience. That logic has translated into practice. When Western sanctions were imposed on Sberbank in 2022, Kazakhstan approved the sale and restructuring of...

International Diplomacy

Trump Signals G20 Invitation in Outreach to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Recent telephone conversations between the presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and United States President Donald Trump have generated significant international attention. Beyond routine diplomatic communication, the exchanges carry broader geopolitical implications for Central Asia. Trump has publicly stated his intention to invite the leaders of both countries to the G20 summit, which the United States will host in Miami in 2026. The announcement drew widespread international media coverage, highlighting growing global interest in the region. Official statements from Kazakhstan’s presidential office said that President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev held a lengthy conversation with Trump that covered a range of issues, including the conflict in Ukraine. Tokayev described the situation as complex, noting that territorial concerns remain central and require realistic compromises. He reiterated Kazakhstan’s readiness to offer a platform for negotiations, while clarifying that the country does not seek to act as a mediator. Notably, Kazakhstan’s official summary did not mention a potential G20 invitation, nor did the U.S. readout refer to peace talks. Uzbekistan’s statement likewise focused on strengthened political engagement, the launch of joint projects worth billions of dollars, the establishment of an American-Uzbek Business and Investment Council, and expanded regional cooperation, including within the C5+1 format, without explicitly mentioning the G20 summit Despite these omissions, Trump confirmed on his social network Truth Social that the U.S. plans to host the G20 next year and intends to invite the presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan as guests. At this stage, the announcement appears to be an expression of intent rather than a formal invitation. Nevertheless, the signal marks a notable shift in U.S. foreign policy priorities toward Central Asia. Even guest invitations for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan would amount to recognition of their growing roles as “middle powers” in global affairs, giving them a rare platform to engage directly with the world’s leading economies. Regional Context and Broader Dynamics The timing of the calls is significant. They followed an informal meeting of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) leaders in St. Petersburg, an event observers characterized as largely ceremonial. The summit was marked by the conspicuous absence of Azerbaijan’s president, who cited scheduling conflicts for his nonattendance. Preparations for the 2026 G20 summit are already underway. In mid-December, the first meeting of G20 Sherpas was held in Washington, bringing together representatives from the world’s leading economies and international organizations. Poland was invited as the only full guest of the U.S. presidency for this meeting. The State Department outlined key priorities for the upcoming summit: stimulating economic growth, ensuring access to reliable and affordable energy, and advancing innovative technologies. While the G20 is a forum rather than a formal international organization, and its decisions are advisory and shaped by differing member interests, participation would still provide Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with an influential platform. Direct engagement at this level would allow both countries to present their priorities on economic development and sustainable growth to a global audience.

Economy

American Companies Explore Investment Prospects in Tajikistan

President Emomali Rahmon’s recent visit to the U.S. has sparked renewed interest in the Tajik economy. In New York, a major investment forum showcased large-scale development projects to American companies from hydropower initiatives to green data centers. U.S.-Central Asia Engagement via C5+1 An event titled Presentation on Tajikistan’s Investment Opportunities was held at the Vista LIC Hotel in New York. It was organized by the state-owned Tajinvest enterprise with support from the State Committee for Investment of Tajikistan and the U.S., Tajikistan Business Council. The gathering marked the tenth anniversary of the C5+1 platform, a regional framework for economic cooperation between the U.S. and Central Asia. Timed to coincide with Rahmon’s official visit to Washington, the event was designed to promote Tajikistan’s economic potential to U.S. businesses. Jonibek Ismoil Hikmat, Tajikistan’s permanent representative to the United Nations, opened the event with a speech emphasizing the country’s strategic aspirations. “Today, we are creating a new Silk Road, not of caravans and goods, but of ideas, innovations, and investments,” he stated. Elena Son, Executive Director of the U.S.-Tajikistan Business Council, encouraged American firms to more actively explore the Tajik market. She shared her experience accompanying major U.S. companies to Dushanbe, affirming that Tajikistan is increasingly ready for serious investment. “They sometimes take a long time to get started, but once they do, no one can catch up with them,” she noted, describing the pace of Tajik partners once projects are underway. Investment Mechanisms and Key Projects Tajinvest CEO Dilshod Jurazoda delivered a presentation titled How to Invest in Tajikistan? He outlined legislative guarantees, investor support mechanisms, and the implementation of a One-Stop-Shop model within Tajinvest to streamline business entry. Jurazoda highlighted a portfolio of strategic projects open to foreign investment, including: Dushanbe Mall Dushanbe Arena Hall Expo Center Dushanbe Sugdbarktaminot energy complex Mehrgon agro-cultural complex in Sughd Green data centers leveraging Tajikistan’s hydropower capacity Tourism infrastructure development projects U.S. Businesses Signal Interest The event featured interactive sessions, with participants pitching projects, engaging in open discussions, and networking in an informal setting. Representatives of major U.S. investment and tech firms were in attendance, including Edward Mermelstein (Atlantic Bridge Capital), Val Kogan (Mid-Atlantic-Eurasia Business Council), Burke McCormack (Ardmore Capital), Mack Kerker and David Halpert (Penataran), Leon Nektalov (Leon Diamond), Sam Bousfield (Samson Sky), and Erkin Mustafokulov (United Bros LC). The U.S. delegation stressed that direct dialogue with Tajik officials offered valuable insights into the local market and practical opportunities for cooperation. The New York presentation underscored growing American interest in Tajikistan. With major projects on offer, abundant energy resources, and demonstrated government support, prospects for deepening bilateral economic ties appear increasingly favorable.