Caspian Pipeline Consortium - The Times Of Central Asia

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Energy Security

Kazakhstan’s Main Oil Route Remains Vulnerable. It Is Expanding Alternatives

Kazakhstan’s prosperity has been built largely on oil, much of which still reaches world markets through infrastructure crossing Russian territory. That would be a strategic exposure for any country; for a landlocked state bordering Russia during the largest war in Europe since 1945, it is impossible to ignore. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium route to the Black Sea remains Kazakhstan’s most important oil artery, carrying about 80% of its crude exports. Three tankers were struck near the terminal on July 17 and 19, two while loading Kazakh oil. Loadings briefly resumed before a fourth tanker, NELSA, was hit on July 20, forcing another suspension. No casualties or oil spill were reported, but the attacks repeatedly interrupted Kazakhstan’s main export route. Kazakhstan treated the attacks as a direct threat to its own economic interests, not as an incident confined to Russia. Its Foreign Ministry condemned the July 17 and 19 strikes as unacceptable, said an agreed mechanism for sharing information about civilian vessels entering the Black Sea to load CPC oil had been disregarded, and demanded an immediate halt. Ukraine’s General Staff said it had struck two tankers overnight on July 19 as part of its campaign against Russian oil and military-fuel logistics, but did not identify them. CPC said the vessels at its terminal were loading Kazakh crude. The episode exposed Kazakhstan’s dependence on infrastructure beyond its control. That exposure reflects geography and inherited infrastructure, not Kazakhstan’s foreign policy alignment. It is a serious strategic vulnerability that Astana is trying to reduce. Kazakhstan did not choose its geography, and its export system was not designed for the rupture that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is the world’s largest landlocked country, bordered by Russia and China, and sits on the Middle Corridor linking China and Central Asia with the South Caucasus and Europe. No government in Astana can alter those facts. The relevant question is how it has responded to them. Under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kazakhstan remains highly exposed to oil, but it is not an oil economy standing still. KAZENERGY’s 2023 National Energy Report put the hydrocarbon sector at about 23% of GDP in 2019 and about 20% in 2022. Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics put the oil and gas sector at 16.3% of GDP in 2024. The series are not directly comparable, but both indicate that hydrocarbons remain central even as non-oil sectors expand. Oil dependence has not disappeared. UNCTAD notes that oil exports still account for more than half of total exports and remain central to foreign exchange earnings and public finances. Kazakhstan has made more progress in reducing oil’s share of GDP than its weight in exports and state revenue. Any serious assessment has to account for both. Kazakhstan’s position on Ukraine also needs to be judged in context. Binary judgments obscure the constraints facing a country that shares a long border, trade channels, energy infrastructure and significant security exposure with Russia. Kazakhstan has not recognized Russia’s attempted annexations. In 2022, its Foreign Ministry said it would...

Black Sea Tanker Attacks

Kazakhstan Condemns Drone Attacks as CPC Oil Loadings Halt

Oil loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal have been suspended again after a fourth tanker was struck by a drone on July 20. The NELSA was loading at single-point mooring SPM-1 when the drone hit the stern on its starboard side, between the superstructure and engine compartment. A fire broke out on the deck and inside the vessel but was extinguished after several hours. CPC said 22 crew members were evacuated aboard its tugboats, while the captain and chief officer remained on the tanker. NELSA stayed afloat. No oil spill occurred, and the crude in its cargo tanks did not ignite. Loading had resumed briefly on the evening of July 19 before the latest attack forced another suspension. Kazakhstan had previously condemned drone attacks on three tankers near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal on July 17 and 19, two of which were hit while loading Kazakh oil. The Liberia-flagged ASIA and the Marshall Islands-flagged NISSOS IOS were attacked at single-point moorings SPM-1 and SPM-3 near Novorossiysk. ASIA was loading Tengizchevroil crude. The Marshall Islands-flagged NISSOS IOS was loading oil from Kashagan B.V. and Maten. A fire broke out on ASIA and was extinguished with CPC emergency support. No crew members, CPC employees, or contractors were injured. Both tankers remained afloat, no oil entered the sea, and the moorings were not damaged. Loading was suspended while specialists assessed the damage. Following the attack on ASIA, a spokesperson for Chevron, whose Tengizchevroil crude was being loaded onto the vessel, told TCA: “Chevron is aware of reports of an incident involving a vessel loading at Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) facilities near Novorossiysk. All crew are safe, and the vessel remains stable. The vessel has been moved to a safe anchorage, and we are coordinating with the ship operator and relevant authorities. There has been no impact to TCO operations or exports. Further questions regarding CPC operations should be directed to CPC.” The Kazakh Foreign Ministry described the strikes as an unacceptable infringement on Kazakhstan’s economic interests and a deliberate attempt to disrupt lawful international trade. “Kazakhstan demands an immediate halt to these attacks,” the ministry stated. The ministry said an agreed system for sharing information on civilian vessels entering the Black Sea to load CPC oil had been deliberately ignored. It said the failure endangered crews, called for practical security measures, and reserved Kazakhstan’s right to seek full compensation under international law. Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces struck two tankers in the Black Sea overnight on July 19. It said the vessels were used to transport Russian oil, petroleum products, and fuel for Russia’s armed forces. The post did not name the tankers. CPC said both ships at its terminal were loading oil produced in Kazakhstan and did not publicly identify the attacker. The July 19 incident followed an attack on Nordic Zenith on July 17. The Suezmax tanker was empty and approaching the terminal when two drones hit it. The crew extinguished a fire. Nearby CPC...

Oil Exports

Kazakhstan Seeks to Expand Oil Exports Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

Kazakhstan is seeking to reinforce its status as a stable oil supplier while accelerating the diversification of export routes and revising the terms of cooperation with foreign investors amid growing geopolitical uncertainty. These priorities were outlined by Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov during a speech at the CERAWeek conference in Houston and in a series of meetings with major international oil and gas companies. Discussions focused on structural changes in the global oil industry, ranging from geopolitical instability to the reconfiguration of logistics chains. According to the minister, Kazakhstan remains resilient while adapting to evolving conditions. Energy security continues to be a central concern for the sector, particularly the reliable operation of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), through which the majority of Kazakhstan’s oil exports are transported. This route remains the most cost-effective and strategically important option. Authorities have openly acknowledged its critical role in the national economy, stressing the need to ensure uninterrupted transit. At the same time, efforts to develop alternative routes, including the Trans-Caspian corridor and increased shipments to China, are part of a strategy to reduce logistical and political risks. On the sidelines of the forum, government officials held talks with leading energy companies including Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell, all key investors in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas industry. Discussions with Chevron focused on expanding production at the Tengiz and Karachaganak fields, as well as developing export infrastructure. ExxonMobil reaffirmed its interest in increasing output at Tengiz and Kashagan, where localization levels are high, with Kazakhstani specialists accounting for more than 90% of the workforce. Talks with Shell focused on boosting production and expanding refining capacity, including refinery modernization and the production of winter-grade diesel fuel. In addition to operational issues, the discussions addressed the question of redistributing roles within joint projects. Kazakhstan is considering independently implementing certain gas-processing initiatives after partners failed to reach a final investment decision on the Karachaganak project. The development of the petrochemical industry and the expansion of refining capacity have been identified as separate priorities. Kazakhstan plans to double its oil-refining capacity to meet domestic demand and increase exports of petroleum products. To attract investment, the government has introduced a revised model contract offering tax incentives and encouraging geological exploration. Experts say Central Asia’s role in the global energy sector is increasing, with Kazakhstan playing a key part in regional stability. The minister said the country’s strategic objective is to maintain the sector’s investment appeal while ensuring maximum economic returns for the national economy. “Kazakhstan remains a predictable and reliable supplier of energy resources and is ready to translate the trust of its partners into the development of technological projects within the country,” Akkenzhenov said. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Italian energy company Eni is accelerating the expansion of its projects in Kazakhstan. The company plans to complete construction of a hybrid power plant in Zhanaozen, one of the country’s main oil and gas hubs, by the end of the year.

Oil Production

Kazakhstan May Miss Record Oil Output Target in 2026 Amid Infrastructure Disruptions

Kazakhstan’s oil production could decline by 2-4 million tons by the end of 2026 following disruptions linked to attacks on the infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and fires at the country’s largest oil field, Tengiz. This was stated by Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov in response to journalists’ questions. In 2025, Kazakhstan produced more than 99.5 million tons of oil, exceeding the initial forecast of 96.2 million tons. Output for 2026 had originally been projected at 100.5 million tons, a potential record for the country. However, the minister indicated that actual production is now likely to fall short of this target. “According to the economic development plan, oil production in 2026 was expected to reach 100.5 million tons. However, due to events at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, attacks on CPC infrastructure and fires at Tengiz, production is likely to be in the range of 96-98 million tons,” Akkenzhenov said. Earlier reports suggested that Kazakhstan had been forced to urgently revise its oil export routes following drone attacks on CPC facilities. In January two fires broke out at electric generators at the Tengiz field. Although the incidents were quickly contained, they caused power outages and temporarily reduced production by nearly 20%. According to the minister, production at Tengiz had been fully restored by early March. “Tengiz has returned to a production level of 120,000 tons per day. A commission is currently finalising its investigation into the causes of the fire, and the results will be announced shortly,” Akkenzhenov said. Akkenzhenov also noted that global oil markets remain volatile amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. He said that oil prices had recently peaked at $119 per barrel before declining to around $87. “Prices fluctuate daily. At the same time, attacks on oil infrastructure in Persian Gulf countries continue, reducing physical supply and keeping prices relatively high,” he said. Akkenzhenov added that rising global oil prices have not yet significantly affected domestic gasoline prices in Kazakhstan. According to the minister, future price dynamics will largely depend on developments in the Middle East. Military escalation in the region, including hostilities involving Iran that began in late February 2026, has already affected global energy markets and may continue to influence oil prices and supply stability.

Oil Exports

Kazakhstan Restructures Oil Exports Amid Disruptions at CPC

Kazakhstan is rapidly restructuring its oil export routes in response to disruptions affecting the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a critical channel for the country’s crude shipments. To maintain export volumes and avoid production slowdowns, authorities have turned to alternative infrastructure. According to a statement from KazMunayGas, the national oil company, approximately 300,000 tons of oil were rerouted in December 2025 after restrictions limited the CPC’s intake capacity. In coordination with KazTransOil JSC (KTO), the country redirected oil flows to other export corridors. These rerouted volumes were exported to Germany, China, and via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, with shipments also handled through the ports of Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga. As CPC restrictions remained in place into January 2026, the redirection strategy continued. Amid these challenges, Kazakhstan’s use of alternative routes gained momentum. KazMunayGas reported that oil deliveries to Germany’s Schwedt refinery totaled 2.1 million tons by the end of 2025, with projections indicating a rise to 2.5 million tons in 2026. Exports through the port of Aktau to the BTC pipeline reached 1.3 million tons in 2025 and are expected to grow to 1.6 million tons this year. Shipments to China remained stable, with 1.1 million tons delivered by the end of 2025. These developments reflect a gradual shift aimed at reducing Kazakhstan’s dependency on the CPC which has faced repeated operational setbacks. The CPC disruptions stem from a series of security incidents. In February and March 2025, the Kropotkinskaya station was targeted in drone attacks. On 29 November, a strike on the consortium’s remote mooring device caused damage to its marine terminal. Following the November incident, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy stated that the CPC pipeline is an international energy project and warned that “any forceful impact on its facilities poses direct risks to global energy security.” After another attack on 13 January 2026, when drones targeted three oil tankers near the CPC terminal in the Black Sea, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a sharper response. In emergency consultations with European partners, the U.S., and other stakeholders, Kazakhstan called for reinforced protection of hydrocarbon transportation routes and maritime corridors, emphasizing the need for adherence to international law.

Black Sea Tanker Attacks

Security Risks Around Kazakhstan’s Oil Exports Ripple Through European Markets

Europe’s oil market is becoming increasingly exposed to disruption as security risks rise along export routes used by Kazakhstan, which the European Union has long viewed as a reliable alternative to Russian supply. The risks extend far beyond Ukraine itself. “Russia continues escalating its attacks and targeting civilians and civilian infrastructures,” an EU spokesperson told The Times of Central Asia. “Russia’s brutal and unacceptable attacks have left people without hot water, heating and electricity in the current weather conditions. Russia’s war of aggression has also severely impacted Black Sea maritime security, including through its use of shadow fleet vessels to circumvent international sanctions, and the persistent attacks on civilian and port infrastructure in Ukraine. On the other hand, Ukraine has accepted an unconditional ceasefire in March 2025. It shows that Russia does not want peace. The EU and the entire international community need to put pressure on Russia to stop its war. “Kazakhstan plays a crucial role for Europe’s energy security and has been for years a reliable partner in diversifying energy sources and ensuring a stable supply for European markets. More than 12% of all the oil imported by the EU comes from Kazakhstan, contributing to the diversification of energy sources and reducing dependency on a limited number of suppliers. The continuous and safe functioning of the supply chain is hence key also for Europe. “Maritime safety and security in the Black Sea is a fundamental component of the new EU strategic approach to the region, adopted in May 2025. The Black Sea is a critical connector between Europe, the Southern Caucasus, Central Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean. Ensuring maritime security and safety in this region is vital not only for the littoral States but also for broader European interests and for many partner countries, as it supports trade flows, sustainable supply chains and enhanced connectivity.” Kazakhstan produced roughly 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024 and exported the bulk of that volume. More than 80% of its crude exports move through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, or CPC, which links oil fields in western Kazakhstan to Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. From there, tankers ship the oil mainly to European refiners. Under normal conditions, the pipeline carries roughly 1.3 million barrels per day, making it one of the most important single supply routes for non-Russian crude entering Europe. Recent events have shown how sensitive European markets are to any disruption along that corridor. On January 14, Bloomberg reported that oil prices in Europe strengthened after shipments of CPC Blend fell short of expectations. Traders cited reduced availability of the light, low-sulfur crude, which is favored by European refiners, forcing buyers to seek alternative grades at higher prices. Despite the recent tightening, traders say the market has so far absorbed disruptions without severe shortages, reflecting high inventories and flexible refinery operations, though that buffer could narrow if attacks persist. That supply pressure followed a series of security incidents in the Black Sea, where commercial shipping and port infrastructure have...