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From January to November 2024, Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover (FTT) reached $59.4 billion, marking an increase of $2.1 billion or 3.6% compared to the same period in 2023, according to the Uzbek Statistical Agency. The volume of exports rose to $24.2 billion, a 4.4% increase compared to January-November 2023. Imports totaled $35.1 billion, growing by 3.0% over the same period. Kazakhstan emerged as one of Uzbekistan’s largest economic partners, following China and Russia. Factors contributing to this include a shared border, trade liberalization, and economic collaboration within the CIS free trade zone. Uzbekistan currently conducts trade with 195 countries, with significant FTT shares attributed to: China: 19.0% Russia: 18.0% Kazakhstan: 6.5% Turkey: 4.4% South Korea: 3.0% The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries accounted for 35.4% of Uzbekistan’s FTT during this period, reflecting a 3.0% increase from 2023. The growing economies of Uzbekistan’s trading partners in the CIS suggest a potential for increased demand for Uzbek exports. However, trade with non-CIS countries saw a decline. Uzbekistan’s trade share with other foreign nations dropped by 3.0% compared to the same period in 2023, comprising 64.6% of the total FTT.
On December 19, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev chaired a government meeting to review foreign investment progress in 2024 and outline goals for 2025. Since 2017, Uzbekistan has attracted a total of $188 billion in investments, including $87 billion in foreign investments. This has increased the share of investments in the country’s GDP to over 30%, providing a solid foundation for sustainable economic growth. In 2024, the volume of investments grew by 1.3 times, surpassing $36 billion. These funds financed 560 large and medium-sized projects, many of which have already been put into operation this year. These projects are expected to boost Uzbekistan’s exports by $1 billion in 2025. For 2025, Uzbekistan aims to utilize $43 billion in investments, funding over 300 large projects. These initiatives will support the production of 662 types of import-substituting goods, further strengthening the country’s industrial base. Mirziyoyev underscored the importance of targeted engagement with foreign investors and improving conditions to attract more investment. The meeting also set an ambitious goal to double Uzbekistan’s annual export volume by 2030, reaching $45 billion. Achieving this target will require launching new investment projects, increasing the production of high-added-value goods, and expanding access to international markets.
On December 20, Bishkek hosted the third People’s Kurultai (Congress), a platform for direct dialogue between representatives of local communities from across Kyrgyzstan and the country’s top leadership. The event featured opening remarks by President Sadyr Japarov and a detailed address by newly appointed Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, Adylbek Kasymaliyev, who outlined the government’s economic priorities and strategic plans for the future. Japarov set the tone for the event by sharing his vision for Kyrgyzstan’s development priorities. He announced that construction of the long-anticipated China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will commence on December 27. Kasymaliev, in his address, emphasized Kyrgyzstan’s ability to sustain economic momentum, citing the country’s 9% annual GDP growth rate over the past three years. He highlighted key initiatives aimed at transforming Kyrgyzstan’s economic landscape, including: Strategic Infrastructure Projects: Kasymaliyev underscored the significance of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which is expected to create new economic centers and logistics hubs, effectively positioning Kyrgyzstan as a "land port" in the region. Hydropower and Renewable Energy: As a reliable partner in Central Asia’s hydropower sector, Kyrgyzstan will continue collaborating with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan on the flagship Kambarata-1 hydroelectric power plant. Kasymaliyev also announced plans to expand solar and wind energy, eliminate state monopolies in the energy sector, and create conditions to attract private investment. Agriculture and Food Security: The government will prioritize agricultural processing to add value to raw products, ensuring food security and bolstering rural economic development. Construction as an Economic Driver: With construction contributing 7.4% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP - a tenfold increase since 2013 - Kasymaliyev called the industry a vital indicator of economic growth. He noted that construction has significantly improved citizens' well-being over the past three years. Government’s Strategic Goals Kasymaliyev laid out an ambitious roadmap for the Cabinet of Ministers, aiming for the following by 2030: Economic Growth: Maintaining a GDP growth rate of 9% and achieving a GDP of $30 billion. Income Growth: Raising GDP per capita from $2,500 to $4,000. Economic Transition: Shifting from a services-oriented economy to an industrial-agrarian model. Support for Small and Medium Businesses: Increasing their share in GDP from the current 40.5% to 50%. Poverty Reduction: Lowering the poverty rate to 17%. Education Expansion: Ensuring 80% of preschool-age children have access to kindergarten. Kasymaliyev’s address underscored the government’s commitment to comprehensive economic reforms and regional cooperation. His plans reflected an optimistic vision for Kyrgyzstan’s development while addressing key challenges in energy, infrastructure, and social services.
Uzbekistan’s economic progress and future ambitions are in focus as the Indian magazine Business Central Asia dedicates its latest issue to the country’s development. Highlighting key points from President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s address to the Legislative Chamber of the Oliy Majlis, the feature showcases Uzbekistan’s achievements and ambitious goals for the years ahead. The article highlights Uzbekistan’s remarkable economic transformation. Since the early 2000s, the country’s economy has doubled, surpassing the $100 billion mark. By 2024, per capita income is expected to reach $3,000, while exports have grown to exceed $25 billion for the first time. Gold and foreign exchange reserves have also seen substantial growth, surpassing $40 billion. Looking to the future, the Uzbekistan-2030 strategy outlines ambitious targets to further accelerate economic growth. The plan envisions increasing GDP to $160 billion, with a projected $110 billion milestone this year. If current growth rates are sustained, Uzbekistan’s economy could reach $200 billion by 2030, significantly improving living standards and the overall quality of life for its citizens. Ensuring macroeconomic stability is a key priority in the government’s roadmap. Over the next five years, Uzbekistan aims to sustain annual growth of 6-7%, expand the private sector’s share of the economy to 85%, and launch large-scale public-private partnership projects. The feature also emphasizes Uzbekistan’s long-term economic resilience. According to the World Bank, the country is poised to rank among the top three fastest-growing economies in Europe and Central Asia in 2024, further validating its development strategy. Uzbekistan’s leadership remains committed to maintaining growth momentum while addressing structural reforms. With a strong focus on sustainable development, the government’s policies aim to enhance economic opportunities and ensure inclusive growth for all segments of the population.
Aibar Dautov, head of Kazakhstan's Mining Industry Association, has called for reforms to the procedure for calculating the mineral extraction tax (MET) to boost budget revenues from oil and solid minerals. Speaking at the Astana Open Dialogue during discussions on the new tax code, Dautov noted that Kazakhstan currently employs ten different MET rates for crude oil taxation. These rates are determined based on two key factors: the price of oil at the time of sale and the annual production volume at a given field. The current tax structure is divided into the following production thresholds: 5% tax for annual production up to 250,000 tons 7% for 500,000 tons 8% for 1 million tons 9% for 2 million tons 10% for 3 million tons 11% for 4 million tons 12% for 5 million tons 13% for 7 million tons 15% for production up to 10 million tons 18% for production exceeding 10 million tons Dautov criticized this system as unfair to other sectors of the economy. “We believe the criterion of annual production volume should not exist at all. This differentiation has been in place for many years, but for some reason, it hasn’t been removed or acknowledged as a tax benefit. The Ministry of National Economy continues to support its inclusion in the new Tax Code. It’s unclear why this grading still exists—it should be eliminated and considered a relic,” Dautov stated. The complexity is even greater for solid minerals, according to Dautov, as their MET calculation currently involves 38 different tax rates for various types of minerals. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Kazakhstan's Ministry of Industry and Construction has proposed replacing the current MET system with royalties. Under this system, taxes would be calculated based on the volume of sold products rather than the volume extracted. This change is scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2026, under new subsoil use contracts, while existing contracts will remain taxed under the current rates.
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts that Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will lead regional economic growth in 2025. According to the bank’s Macroeconomic Forecast, published on November 5, GDP growth rates for Kyrgyzstan are given at 8.7%, Tajikistan at 8.4%, and Kazakhstan at 5.5%. For comparison, the corresponding figure for Russia is just 2.4%. Tajikistan’s robust growth is attributed to rising prices for gold and other export metals, coupled with reduced costs for imported energy and food products. These factors are expected to enhance economic efficiency by freeing up funds for consumption and investment. Additionally, the country’s rapidly growing population remains a central driver of its economic expansion. Similarly, Kyrgyzstan’s strong economic performance will be fueled by industrial development, high investment activity, and resilient domestic demand. However, in both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, industrial growth and investment activity are anticipated to lag behind GDP expansion. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are expected to grow above the global average, supported by steady exports and robust domestic demand. Kazakhstan’s economy will benefit from increased oil production, large-scale government infrastructure projects, and supportive fiscal policies. The EDB predicts that inflation across the region will gradually decline, from 7.9% in 2024 to 6.4% in 2025. High interest rates will remain a key tool in controlling inflation, with rates expected at 7.3% in Kazakhstan by the end of 2025. Inflation in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is projected to remain within target levels, reaching 5.0% and 5.8%, respectively. These lower inflation rates are expected to support continued economic stability in both countries.
