Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) - The Times Of Central Asia

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Economy

EDB Forecasts Kazakhstan’s GDP Growth to Accelerate to 5.5% in 2025

Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, up from an estimated 4.8% in 2024, according to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). The forecast suggests this growth rate will be sustained through 2026 and 2027. “We expect Kazakhstan's economic growth to accelerate to 5.5% in 2025 after 4.8% in 2024, with these rates remaining unchanged in 2026-2027,” said Aigul Berdigulova, Senior Analyst at the EDB’s Country Analysis Center, during the presentation of the bank’s macroeconomic forecast. She emphasized that government initiatives to boost investment, particularly through the national holding company Baiterek, will be pivotal. Funding volumes for the economy are expected to reach KZT 8 trillion (approximately $15.2 billion), equivalent to about 6% of GDP. “This measure will help unlock investment potential in manufacturing, transport, and construction,” Berdigulova said. According to the EDB, these investment-backed policies are expected to counterbalance external shocks. Additional growth drivers include expansion at the Tengiz oil field, projected to contribute 0.4 to 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in 2025, and ongoing fiscal stimulus, regional development efforts, and infrastructure projects. Kazakhstan ranks fourth among the EDB’s member states in terms of projected GDP growth for 2025, following Kyrgyzstan (10.3%), Tajikistan (8.4%), and Uzbekistan (6.5%). It is on par with Armenia (5.5%) and ahead of Belarus (3%) and Russia (2%). Inflation Set to Rise in 2025 Despite the optimistic growth forecast, inflationary pressures are expected to intensify. The EDB projects Kazakhstan’s inflation rate will reach 11.9% in 2025, its highest among the bank’s member countries. “Inflation in Kazakhstan is rising this year due to the weakening of the tenge observed at the end of 2024,” Berdigulova explained. She also pointed to continued increases in utility tariffs and inflation expectations amid discussions of tax and budget reforms, including a planned VAT hike. Inflation is expected to peak in the second quarter of 2026 before declining to around 8.5% by 2027. For comparison, Armenia is forecast to have the lowest inflation among EDB members at just 3.1%. According to preliminary data from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of National Economy, the country’s GDP grew by 6% year-on-year in the January-May 2025 period. However, not all institutions are as optimistic. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) recently revised its 2025 forecast for Kazakhstan’s GDP downward, from 5.2% to 4.9%.

EDB

EDB Unveils New Forecasting Model for Uzbekistan’s Economy

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has introduced a macroeconomic model designed to enhance the analysis and forecasting of Uzbekistan’s economic trends. Detailed in the working paper “Macroeconomic Model for Analysis and Forecasting of the Uzbekistan Economy,” the tool aims to improve the precision and depth of economic projections. This model integrates into the EDB’s broader economic simulation framework, enabling it to account for the interconnected nature of member economies. It provides a clearer understanding of how Uzbekistan’s economy responds to both global and regional dynamics. With this development, the EDB joins other international institutions engaged in forecasting Uzbekistan’s economic performance. The bank emphasizes that its collaboration with Uzbekistan’s government and development partners ensures the model’s practical application in policy-making. Key functions of the model include evaluating the effects of internal and external shocks on the Uzbek economy, assessing fiscal and monetary policy impacts, and modeling exchange rate dynamics. It also allows for the construction of medium-term development scenarios and the identification of risks to economic stability. Evgeny Vinokurov, Deputy Chairman of the EDB’s Management Board and the bank’s Chief Economist, highlighted the importance of cross-country economic linkages. “This is especially important for developing economies that are closely connected to each other,” he said. The model incorporates variables such as GDP, inflation, the exchange rate of the Uzbek som, interest rates, government expenditures, wage levels, trade volumes, and capital flows, offering researchers a comprehensive view of macroeconomic processes. The bank plans to release its first official forecast for Uzbekistan within a month. Uzbekistan became the seventh member of the EDB in April 2025, following President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s ratification of the country’s accession to the Agreement Establishing the Eurasian Development Bank. With a 10% equity stake, Uzbekistan is now the bank’s third-largest shareholder.

Environment

EDB Evaluates Environmental Projects to Combat Air Pollution in Bishkek

The Bishkek municipality and the Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) Fund for Digital Initiatives are considering two major environmental projects to tackle air pollution and enhance the quality of life in Kyrgyzstan’s capital. The proposals were reviewed during a meeting on May 21 between Bishkek Mayor Aibek Junushaliyev and Tigran Sargsyan, Deputy Chairman of the EDB Management Board and head of the EDB's Fund for Digital Initiatives. According to the municipal government, the first project involves establishing a comprehensive air quality monitoring system based on a digital platform. The system is designed to address the city’s chronic air pollution by providing government bodies with real-time data on key emission sources. It would also enable assessments of contributions from industrial activities and natural background pollutants. The second project envisions an intelligent transport monitoring system aimed at improving traffic flow modeling and management. The goal is to optimize the city’s public transport network, reduce congestion, and enhance urban mobility, all while improving environmental conditions. Transport and Air Quality: Pressing Challenges for Bishkek Traffic congestion and outdated public transport are among the most pressing issues in Bishkek, a city undergoing rapid population growth. According to the Ministry of Natural Resources, Ecology, and Technical Supervision, motor vehicles are responsible for 27% of the city’s air pollution. With over 600,000 registered vehicles, nearly double the city’s road infrastructure capacity of 350,000, Bishkek’s air quality continues to decline. More than 333,000 of these vehicles are over 15 years old, contributing significantly to emissions. Nonetheless, the city has taken steps to modernize its public transport fleet, including replacing aging diesel-powered buses with larger, eco-friendlier models powered by liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). Air pollution is especially severe during the winter months when coal burning for household heating, accounting for 40% of the city’s emissions, surges. As a result, Bishkek frequently ranks among the world’s top 10 most polluted cities on IQAir’s global air quality index. The proposed EDB-backed projects represent a potential turning point for Bishkek’s environmental management strategy, offering digital tools and policy solutions to address longstanding public health and urban planning challenges.

Islamic finance

New Report Predicts Surge in Islamic Finance Across Central Asia

A new report co-published by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), the Islamic Development Bank Institute, and the London Stock Exchange Group forecasts robust growth for Islamic finance in Central Asia. Titled “The Future of Islamic Finance in Central Asia,” the report was unveiled at the 2025 Annual Meetings of the Islamic Development Bank Group in Algiers, Algeria. The study offers a comprehensive overview of the Islamic finance landscape across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. While Sharia-compliant financing remains a relatively recent addition to the global financial system, having developed over the past three decades, it is becoming an increasingly significant component in the sustainable development strategies of Central Asian economies. All five governments are reportedly prioritizing the expansion of Islamic finance. As of early 2024, the region is home to 18 Islamic banks and 14 non-bank financial institutions, including Islamic banking windows. The sector also features takaful (Islamic insurance) operators, microfinance institutions, Ijara (leasing) companies, and emerging Islamic FinTech ventures such as digital banks and wealth management platforms. Total Islamic finance assets in Central Asia stood at $699 million at the start of 2024. According to the Islamic Finance Development Report 2024, Kazakhstan ranked 19th globally in terms of Islamic finance development, above the global average, and leads the regional market. Projections in the report anticipate substantial growth. Islamic banking assets in Central Asia are expected to rise to $2.5 billion by 2028 and $6.3 billion by 2033. Kazakhstan is forecasted to remain the regional leader, followed closely by Uzbekistan, buoyed by favorable demographics, economic momentum, and the depth of national banking sectors. The sukuk (Islamic bond) market is also poised for rapid expansion. Baseline forecasts suggest sukuk issuance could reach $2.05 billion by 2028 and $5.6 billion by 2033. EDB Chairman Nikolai Podguzov highlighted the bank’s commitment to fostering this growth: “The further development of Islamic finance in Central Asia will expand financial inclusion and connect local businesses to the global Islamic market, contributing to regional economic growth. With the Islamic Development Bank Group’s support, the EDB has initiated the creation of an Islamic Window to finance projects in compliance with Sharia principles.” He added that key investment priorities will include energy, transport, social infrastructure, food security, and industry.

Water Conservation

EDB Chief Economist Outlines Central Asia’s Water Challenges and Proposes Solutions

Evgeny Vinokurov, Vice-Chairman and Chief Economist of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), presented a sobering assessment of Central Asia’s water and energy challenges at the Annual Meetings of the Association of Development Financing Institutions in Asia and the Pacific (ADFIAP) on April 23. The event, held in Muscat, Oman, featured a plenary session dedicated to sustainable water management and practical strategies for addressing mounting environmental pressures in the region. Shrinking Glaciers and Growing Demand Vinokurov unveiled findings from the EDB’s think tank research, which paint a stark picture: Central Asia’s glaciers have shrunk by 30% over the past 50 years, while water demand continues to rise. Despite this, much of the region's water infrastructure remains outdated and inefficient, resulting in a loss of 40-55% of available water. Additionally, 10 million people in Central Asia still lack access to safe drinking water. Without targeted intervention, annual water scarcity could reach 5-12 cubic kilometers by 2028. National Commitments and Regional Coordination The EDB report emphasized water conservation as a critical pillar in the region’s response to these challenges. Several countries are already pursuing large-scale water-saving initiatives: Kazakhstan plans to expand water-saving irrigation technologies to 150,000 hectares per year by 2030. Uzbekistan has committed to saving 15 billion cubic meters of water. Kyrgyzstan aims to construct 106 new reservoirs to secure water supply. “Central Asia’s water crisis cannot be solved in isolation,” said Vinokurov. “Our research provides a roadmap for efficiency, investment, and, most importantly, regional cooperation. This is why the water-energy nexus remains a strategic priority for our Bank, both in terms of investments and research.” Localizing Water Solutions The EDB, in partnership with the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), recently published a report titled Irrigation Equipment Production in Central Asia: Industrialising the Water Sector, calling for localized production of irrigation equipment to enhance water efficiency and reduce dependency on imports. Another key publication from the EDB, The Irtysh River Basin: Transboundary Challenges and Practical Solutions, focuses on the Irtysh River basin shared by China, Kazakhstan, and Russia. The report outlines increasing water demand across the basin and proposes measures for managing cross-border water resources through collaborative frameworks. Uzbekistan Joins the EDB On April 9, Uzbekistan became the seventh member of the Eurasian Development Bank, joining Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. The move is expected to provide new avenues for Uzbekistan to modernize its infrastructure, particularly in the transport, energy, and water sectors, and support its broader industrial and agricultural development goals.

Irrigation

New Report Urges Local Irrigation Equipment Production to Tackle Water Scarcity in Central Asia

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) have jointly released a report titled Irrigation Equipment Production in Central Asia: Industrialising the Water Sector, highlighting the urgent need to localize irrigation equipment manufacturing in the region. The publication argues that establishing a domestic irrigation equipment manufacturing sector could serve as a strategic response to mounting water challenges in Central Asia. It calls for coordinated action by regional governments, international organizations, and private sector actors to implement investment and policy frameworks aimed at reducing reliance on imports and fostering a self-sufficient production ecosystem. Heavy Dependence on Imports The report identifies irrigation equipment as a key strategic area for bolstering food security and managing water resources more efficiently. Currently, the regional market for such equipment is valued between $130 million and $200 million, with over 90% of this demand met through imports. Despite this dependency, governments across Central Asia are taking proactive steps to modernize agriculture. Substantial financial and non-financial support is being extended to farmers, and plans are underway to expand irrigated farmland and adopt advanced irrigation technologies. According to the study, the irrigated area in Central Asia is projected to grow to 10.6 million hectares by 2040. This expansion is expected to drive demand for up to two million units of irrigation equipment, with the potential to generate $426 million annually in local production. The report further estimates the annual market for new sprinklers at $114 million and for drip irrigation systems at $220 million. Cluster-Based Development To address these needs, the publication proposes a cluster-based approach to developing local irrigation equipment production hubs. Nikolai Podguzov, Chairman of the EDB Management Board, emphasized the economic potential of localization: “The region’s demand for irrigation equipment could more than double by 2030. Localizing production will not only help retain investments within the local economy but also stimulate the development of precision irrigation technologies, digital water management tools, engineering labs, and knowledge-sharing centers focused on best practices in irrigation and water use.”