The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has introduced a macroeconomic model designed to enhance the analysis and forecasting of Uzbekistan’s economic trends. Detailed in the working paper “Macroeconomic Model for Analysis and Forecasting of the Uzbekistan Economy,” the tool aims to improve the precision and depth of economic projections.
This model integrates into the EDB’s broader economic simulation framework, enabling it to account for the interconnected nature of member economies. It provides a clearer understanding of how Uzbekistan’s economy responds to both global and regional dynamics.
With this development, the EDB joins other international institutions engaged in forecasting Uzbekistan’s economic performance. The bank emphasizes that its collaboration with Uzbekistan’s government and development partners ensures the model’s practical application in policy-making.
Key functions of the model include evaluating the effects of internal and external shocks on the Uzbek economy, assessing fiscal and monetary policy impacts, and modeling exchange rate dynamics. It also allows for the construction of medium-term development scenarios and the identification of risks to economic stability.
Evgeny Vinokurov, Deputy Chairman of the EDB’s Management Board and the bank’s Chief Economist, highlighted the importance of cross-country economic linkages. “This is especially important for developing economies that are closely connected to each other,” he said. The model incorporates variables such as GDP, inflation, the exchange rate of the Uzbek som, interest rates, government expenditures, wage levels, trade volumes, and capital flows, offering researchers a comprehensive view of macroeconomic processes.
The bank plans to release its first official forecast for Uzbekistan within a month.
Uzbekistan became the seventh member of the EDB in April 2025, following President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s ratification of the country’s accession to the Agreement Establishing the Eurasian Development Bank. With a 10% equity stake, Uzbekistan is now the bank’s third-largest shareholder.
