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International Diplomacy

Tokayev Arrives on State Visit to France

Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev visited France on November 4-5, at the invitation of his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron. During the visit, high-level talks were held to strengthen cooperation in trade, economic, investment, cultural, and humanitarian spheres. In addition, Tokayev met with representatives of French business circles. French media also covered the visit. Le Monde noted that the talks between Tokayev and Macron focused on expanding economic ties and discussing joint projects in energy and infrastructure. Le Figaro emphasized the importance of cultural exchange between the two countries, mentioning plans to hold joint cultural events in the coming years. Kazakhstani officials said Tokayev's visit to France strengthened bilateral relations and opened new prospects for cooperation in various fields. On the eve of his visit, Tokayev published an article in the French newspaper Le Figaro titled “Kazakhstan is a strategic and reliable partner for France.” In the article, he outlined the main areas of cooperation with France and emphasized Kazakhstan's role in international diplomacy. Tokayev noted that global challenges such as climate change and migration require updated approaches to international cooperation. He highlighted the role of “middle powers,” of which Kazakhstan is one, in promoting global stability, emphasizing the country's commitment to a balanced foreign policy and support for peacekeeping efforts. Tokayev also expressed Kazakhstan's interest in cooperating with France in the fields of rare earth metals mining, development of “green” energy, and nuclear industry. He added that the upcoming referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan will open up opportunities to strengthen Europe's energy security. Last year, these areas were discussed during Macron's visit to Astana. In addition, he emphasized Kazakhstan's role in ensuring Europe's energy security through the Middle Corridor project, which links Asia and Europe. In conclusion, he expressed confidence in promising cooperation with France to achieve global stability and prosperity. The leaders of Kazakhstan and France met in Astana precisely one year ago, in November 2023. Then Tokayev called the visit of Macron to Kazakhstan historic. At the enlarged meeting, Tokayev specified that, one-on-one, the leaders identified several priority areas for future cooperation, including energy, critical raw materials, renewable energy, transit, agriculture, and health care. At the same time, the French leader invited Tokayev to Paris in 2024. After his visit to Paris, Tokayev will travel to Kyrgyzstan on November 6 to attend the XI Summit of the Organization of Turkic States. The central theme of the OTS summit will be “Strengthening the Turkic World: Economic Integration, Sustainable Development, Digital Future, and Security for All.”

International Diplomacy

Tajikistan and Kuwait Sign Nine Cooperation Agreements

Tajik President Emomali Rahmon began his official visit to Kuwait on November 3. He met with the country’s leaders and finalized agreements to strengthen bilateral cooperation. Following discussions, Tajikistan and Kuwait signed nine key documents to enhance their collaboration, the President’s press service reports. In the presence of Rahmon and Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah al-Khalid Al-Hamad Al-Mubarak Al-Sabah, both sides signed: • A Memorandum of Cooperation between the Foreign Ministries of Tajikistan and Kuwait’s Diplomatic Academy; • A protocol to amend the double taxation agreement between the two countries; • A memorandum on labor regulation in the private sector; • Agreements on trade and industrial cooperation; • A cooperation agreement between Tajikistan’s National Information Agency “Khovar” and Kuwait’s State Information Agency “KUNA”; • Memorandums covering sports, standardization, and physical culture; • An executive tourism program for 2024-2026. Rahmon is quoted as saying: “We are ready to take practical steps to strengthen our relations further.” The discussions emphasized the importance of increasing the intergovernmental joint commission’s activities and establishing an Entrepreneur Council and a Joint Investment Fund between the two nations. Rahmon also thanked Sheikh Mishaal Al-Ahmad Al-Jabir Al-Sabah for the Kuwait Development Fund’s support of critical projects in Tajikistan, particularly in road construction, energy, and irrigation. Additionally, both leaders discussed expanding Kuwaiti investment into Tajikistan’s light, food, metallurgy, pharmaceutical, and agriculture industries. The Emir of Kuwait recognized Rahmon’s initiatives in empowering women and shared Kuwait’s similar efforts, highlighting recent appointments of women to senior government roles. The signed memorandum on private-sector labor regulation was celebrated as a step toward cooperation, further solidifying the growing partnership between Tajikistan and Kuwait.

International Diplomacy

Authorities Rail Against Use of Kazakhstan in Circumventing International Sanctions Against Russia

Kazakhstan's Deputy Foreign Minister Roman Vassilenko emphasized in an interview with the Polish publication PAP that the country seeks to prevent its territory from being used to circumvent international sanctions imposed against Russia. According to Vassilenko, although Kazakhstan has not officially imposed sanctions nor joined the anti-Russian measures, the republic's authorities consider it essential to prevent risks associated with possible secondary sanctions against its companies. This is especially important in regard to its close economic ties with Western countries. At the same time and in acknowledgement of its position concerning both its Western partners and Russia, Kazakhstan has emphasized the need for balance and an avoidance of circumvention of restrictive measures. Vassilenko also noted that Kazakhstan is actively cooperating with the European Union on the sanctions regime, and as part of these consultations, reported that he had been in dialog with David O'Sullivan, the EU special envoy for sanctions. Vassilenko denied speculation about growing tensions between Kazakhstan and Russia, and pointing out that the countries maintain close ties, explained: “There are different issues because we are neighbors and have diverse relations. We are working with Russia to solve these issues before they become problems. This is our approach not only to the Russian Federation but to any other country." After the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, Kazakhstan took a neutral stance and did not support Western sanctions against Moscow. Nevertheless, the Kazakh authorities have repeatedly stated that they will not allow the country's territory to be used to circumvent these restrictions. President Kasym-Jomart Tokayev, in his speeches, adheres to the principle of compliance with the international sanctions regime and aims to conduct a constructive dialog with the EU and the U.S. to avoid possible secondary sanctions that could affect Kazakh companies.

Bilateral Cooperation

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Prioritize Cooperation Between Regions

On October 22, the 4th Interregional Forum, “Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan,” was held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. The forum addressed issues such as increasing bilateral trade turnover, developing industrial cooperation, and enhancing collaboration in the water, energy, transit, and transport sectors. Speaking at the forum, Uzbekistan’s Prime Minister, Abdulla Aripov, emphasized that developing cooperation between the regions of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan is a priority in relations between the two countries. Aripov stated that “Over the past seven years, trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan has grown almost 2.5-fold, reaching $4.4 billion last year. Today, more than 1,000 enterprises with Kazakh capital operate in Uzbekistan. Border regions have established direct and close ties with each other — the Republic of Karakalpakstan [in Uzbekistan] with the Mangistau region [in Kazakhstan], the Tashkent region with the Turkestan region, and the Navoi region with the Kyzylorda region. At the same time, this great potential has yet to be realized.” Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister, Olzhas Bektenov, meanwhile, announced at the forum that Kazakhstan is ready to increase exports to Uzbekistan by over $550 million, offering 40 types of high-value-added Kazakh products. Uzbekistan is Kazakhstan’s main trading partner in Central Asia. From January-August 2024, bilateral trade amounted to $2.5 billion, with more than 50% of Uzbekistan’s trade passing through Kazakhstan in transit. The forum paid special attention to the development of industrial cooperation, including 74 joint projects with a total investment volume of $3.4 billion and the creation of 14,600 jobs. Of these, 65 enterprises will be established in Kazakhstan, creating 13,600 new jobs. Examples of Kazakh-Uzbek industrial cooperation include the manufacture of Chevrolet Onix cars in Kostanay (Kazakhstan), a plant for the production of household appliances in Saran (Kazakhstan), sewing, spinning, and weaving factories in the Shymkent and Turkestan regions (Kazakhstan), and the production of autoclaved aerated concrete in Angren (Uzbekistan). Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are also working on establishing the International Center for Industrial Cooperation “Central Asia,” which will offer “one-stop shop” for services and tax and customs for entrepreneurs from both countries.

BRICS

Kazakhstan’s Strategic Stand: Navigating BRICS Amidst Geopolitical Tensions

In recent days, BRICS - an intergovernmental organization comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE - has become one of the most critical topics on the Eurasian region's information agenda. Russian propaganda has presented the BRICS summit, which is taking place in Kazan, as a global event. However, the press secretary of Kazakhstan's president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has stated that the republic has no plans to apply for BRICS membership in the foreseeable future, which has caused an adverse reaction in the Russian media, and led to a seemingly retaliatory Russian ban on Kazakhstan's agro-products. The Kazakhstani side, represented by the expert community, has tried to explain that its reasoning is based not only on Astana's national interest, but also on its obligations to its partners in Central Asia. Perhaps the most convincing argument is that the C5+1 mechanism is effective as a format for the region's interactions with the outside world. Therefore, it is not worth breaking this mechanism. No Central Asian country besides Kazakhstan has been invited to join BRICS, but Astana cannot afford to damage the established alliance by creating the conditions for distrust from its neighbors; Central Asia has already gone through a period of distrust. At the same time, rejecting the idea of joining BRICS, where India, Russia, Brazil and China are the founding members, does not unduly affect Kazakhstan's interactions with these powers. Kazakhstan works with China and Russia within the framework of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) and EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union), and has signed multiple partnership and alliance agreements with Beijing and Moscow. In other words, the information hysteria that Kazakhstan will exit Russia's sphere tomorrow and join the "Global West" (a term used in the Russian media) has no basis in reality. At the same time, however, it is evident that most Central Asian countries are trying to distance themselves from Russia as much as possible, maintaining cooperation only along certain economic lines. Even banks in Kyrgyzstan, a republic maximally dependent on Moscow on several essential issues, have stopped working with Russian banks. The Kazakhstan Stock Exchange, meanwhile, recently announced the end of cooperation with the sanctioned Moscow Stock Exchange. Moreover, Rosselkhoznadzor's ban on imports of a wide range of agro-industrial products from Kazakhstan, if not a response to the refusal to join the BRICS, clearly hints that behind the scenes, economic relations between Astana and Moscow are not all that smooth. Another argument against joining BRICS was voiced not just within Kazakhstan, but also by Russian experts. Despite the organization's purportedly representative nature, which includes countries with a combined population of 3.5 billion people (45% of the Earth's population), the association has no structure. Russian analysts opposed to the Kremlin believe that BRICS is a club where one can come, sabre-rattle at the West, conclude bilateral agreements, and forget about everything until the next summit. No coordinating center monitors the implementation of any agreements reached. BRICS was conceived as an intercontinental organization, uniting similar economies in volume and GDP. Thus, it initially included Brazil, representing...

Migrants

Migrants in the Crossfire: Russia’s Recruitment for Ukraine War Sparks Tensions

Russia’s ongoing “special military operation” in Ukraine has increased the demand for additional forces, and, in response, Russia is increasingly viewing the use of migrants as a good solution to the situation. As of September 1, 2024, official figures state that 3,985,000 citizens of Central Asian countries lived in Russia. Uzbekistan leads the way with over 1,792,000 migrants, followed by Tajikistan with more than 1,231,000, Kazakhstan with 606,900, Kyrgyzstan with 262,800, and Turkmenistan with 92,000. Some Central Asian migrants have signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense to participate in the war, motivated mainly by financial incentives. However, economic reasons are not the only factor driving them to war. People from Central Asian countries who have received citizenship are also being threatened with imprisonment for failing to join the war effort. TCA has previously reported on efforts by officials to recruit young men detained at the Sakharovo immigration processing center to join the Russian army and fight in Ukraine. In addition, a decree issued by Vladimir Putin has simplified the process for foreigners who join the military to gain Russian citizenship. In contrast, Central Asian governments have looked to discourage their citizens from engaging in the conflict. For example, Uzbekistan has warned that any citizen involved in the Russia-Ukraine war will face legal consequences. In October 2023, an Uzbek citizen who fought in Ukraine for financial reasons was sentenced to three years in prison by a Uzbek court. The defendant had returned to Uzbekistan after being wounded in the conflict, and authorities discovered military documents and proof of his Russian citizenship during their investigation. By September 2024, a growing number of Central Asians had perished in the war, including 47 Uzbeks, 51 Tajiks, and 26 Kyrgyz nationals. In Kazakhstan, since 2014, following the start of the war in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, criminal liability was been introduced for citizens who participate in armed conflicts abroad. A person who commits such an offense can be punished with imprisonment for up to 12 years, face the confiscation of property, and be deprived of their citizenship. For example, in November of last year, a 34-year-old man from Kazakhstan was imprisoned for six years and eight months for participating in the war in Ukraine. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have also applied measures involving the deprivation of liberty their citizens who participate in the war. Tajikistan’s economy significantly depends on remittances from labor migrants in Russia, which account for approximately one-third of its GDP. Despite the war in Ukraine, over 1.7 million Tajik citizens sought work in Russia in the first half of 2022. However, reports indicate that many Tajik migrants are being sent to Ukraine against their will, raising concerns. The situation further deteriorated after a terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall in February 2024. Tajik nationals were among the primary suspects, leading to a shift in Russia’s attitude towards Central Asian migrants. Tajikistan’s Foreign Minister, Sirojiddin Muhriddin, expressed concerns over the violations of Tajik citizens’ rights in some CIS countries, calling for a...