International Relations - The Times Of Central Asia

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Bilateral Cooperation

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Prioritize Cooperation Between Regions

On October 22, the 4th Interregional Forum, “Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan,” was held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. The forum addressed issues such as increasing bilateral trade turnover, developing industrial cooperation, and enhancing collaboration in the water, energy, transit, and transport sectors. Speaking at the forum, Uzbekistan’s Prime Minister, Abdulla Aripov, emphasized that developing cooperation between the regions of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan is a priority in relations between the two countries. Aripov stated that “Over the past seven years, trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan has grown almost 2.5-fold, reaching $4.4 billion last year. Today, more than 1,000 enterprises with Kazakh capital operate in Uzbekistan. Border regions have established direct and close ties with each other — the Republic of Karakalpakstan [in Uzbekistan] with the Mangistau region [in Kazakhstan], the Tashkent region with the Turkestan region, and the Navoi region with the Kyzylorda region. At the same time, this great potential has yet to be realized.” Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister, Olzhas Bektenov, meanwhile, announced at the forum that Kazakhstan is ready to increase exports to Uzbekistan by over $550 million, offering 40 types of high-value-added Kazakh products. Uzbekistan is Kazakhstan’s main trading partner in Central Asia. From January-August 2024, bilateral trade amounted to $2.5 billion, with more than 50% of Uzbekistan’s trade passing through Kazakhstan in transit. The forum paid special attention to the development of industrial cooperation, including 74 joint projects with a total investment volume of $3.4 billion and the creation of 14,600 jobs. Of these, 65 enterprises will be established in Kazakhstan, creating 13,600 new jobs. Examples of Kazakh-Uzbek industrial cooperation include the manufacture of Chevrolet Onix cars in Kostanay (Kazakhstan), a plant for the production of household appliances in Saran (Kazakhstan), sewing, spinning, and weaving factories in the Shymkent and Turkestan regions (Kazakhstan), and the production of autoclaved aerated concrete in Angren (Uzbekistan). Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are also working on establishing the International Center for Industrial Cooperation “Central Asia,” which will offer “one-stop shop” for services and tax and customs for entrepreneurs from both countries.

BRICS

Kazakhstan’s Strategic Stand: Navigating BRICS Amidst Geopolitical Tensions

In recent days, BRICS - an intergovernmental organization comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE - has become one of the most critical topics on the Eurasian region's information agenda. Russian propaganda has presented the BRICS summit, which is taking place in Kazan, as a global event. However, the press secretary of Kazakhstan's president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has stated that the republic has no plans to apply for BRICS membership in the foreseeable future, which has caused an adverse reaction in the Russian media, and led to a seemingly retaliatory Russian ban on Kazakhstan's agro-products. The Kazakhstani side, represented by the expert community, has tried to explain that its reasoning is based not only on Astana's national interest, but also on its obligations to its partners in Central Asia. Perhaps the most convincing argument is that the C5+1 mechanism is effective as a format for the region's interactions with the outside world. Therefore, it is not worth breaking this mechanism. No Central Asian country besides Kazakhstan has been invited to join BRICS, but Astana cannot afford to damage the established alliance by creating the conditions for distrust from its neighbors; Central Asia has already gone through a period of distrust. At the same time, rejecting the idea of joining BRICS, where India, Russia, Brazil and China are the founding members, does not unduly affect Kazakhstan's interactions with these powers. Kazakhstan works with China and Russia within the framework of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) and EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union), and has signed multiple partnership and alliance agreements with Beijing and Moscow. In other words, the information hysteria that Kazakhstan will exit Russia's sphere tomorrow and join the "Global West" (a term used in the Russian media) has no basis in reality. At the same time, however, it is evident that most Central Asian countries are trying to distance themselves from Russia as much as possible, maintaining cooperation only along certain economic lines. Even banks in Kyrgyzstan, a republic maximally dependent on Moscow on several essential issues, have stopped working with Russian banks. The Kazakhstan Stock Exchange, meanwhile, recently announced the end of cooperation with the sanctioned Moscow Stock Exchange. Moreover, Rosselkhoznadzor's ban on imports of a wide range of agro-industrial products from Kazakhstan, if not a response to the refusal to join the BRICS, clearly hints that behind the scenes, economic relations between Astana and Moscow are not all that smooth. Another argument against joining BRICS was voiced not just within Kazakhstan, but also by Russian experts. Despite the organization's purportedly representative nature, which includes countries with a combined population of 3.5 billion people (45% of the Earth's population), the association has no structure. Russian analysts opposed to the Kremlin believe that BRICS is a club where one can come, sabre-rattle at the West, conclude bilateral agreements, and forget about everything until the next summit. No coordinating center monitors the implementation of any agreements reached. BRICS was conceived as an intercontinental organization, uniting similar economies in volume and GDP. Thus, it initially included Brazil, representing...

Migrants

Migrants in the Crossfire: Russia’s Recruitment for Ukraine War Sparks Tensions

Russia’s ongoing “special military operation” in Ukraine has increased the demand for additional forces, and, in response, Russia is increasingly viewing the use of migrants as a good solution to the situation. As of September 1, 2024, official figures state that 3,985,000 citizens of Central Asian countries lived in Russia. Uzbekistan leads the way with over 1,792,000 migrants, followed by Tajikistan with more than 1,231,000, Kazakhstan with 606,900, Kyrgyzstan with 262,800, and Turkmenistan with 92,000. Some Central Asian migrants have signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense to participate in the war, motivated mainly by financial incentives. However, economic reasons are not the only factor driving them to war. People from Central Asian countries who have received citizenship are also being threatened with imprisonment for failing to join the war effort. TCA has previously reported on efforts by officials to recruit young men detained at the Sakharovo immigration processing center to join the Russian army and fight in Ukraine. In addition, a decree issued by Vladimir Putin has simplified the process for foreigners who join the military to gain Russian citizenship. In contrast, Central Asian governments have looked to discourage their citizens from engaging in the conflict. For example, Uzbekistan has warned that any citizen involved in the Russia-Ukraine war will face legal consequences. In October 2023, an Uzbek citizen who fought in Ukraine for financial reasons was sentenced to three years in prison by a Uzbek court. The defendant had returned to Uzbekistan after being wounded in the conflict, and authorities discovered military documents and proof of his Russian citizenship during their investigation. By September 2024, a growing number of Central Asians had perished in the war, including 47 Uzbeks, 51 Tajiks, and 26 Kyrgyz nationals. In Kazakhstan, since 2014, following the start of the war in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, criminal liability was been introduced for citizens who participate in armed conflicts abroad. A person who commits such an offense can be punished with imprisonment for up to 12 years, face the confiscation of property, and be deprived of their citizenship. For example, in November of last year, a 34-year-old man from Kazakhstan was imprisoned for six years and eight months for participating in the war in Ukraine. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have also applied measures involving the deprivation of liberty their citizens who participate in the war. Tajikistan’s economy significantly depends on remittances from labor migrants in Russia, which account for approximately one-third of its GDP. Despite the war in Ukraine, over 1.7 million Tajik citizens sought work in Russia in the first half of 2022. However, reports indicate that many Tajik migrants are being sent to Ukraine against their will, raising concerns. The situation further deteriorated after a terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall in February 2024. Tajik nationals were among the primary suspects, leading to a shift in Russia’s attitude towards Central Asian migrants. Tajikistan’s Foreign Minister, Sirojiddin Muhriddin, expressed concerns over the violations of Tajik citizens’ rights in some CIS countries, calling for a...

Middle Powers

Middle Powers Rising: Shaping a Balanced Global Order at the Astana Think Tank Forum

On October 16-17, the capital of Kazakhstan hosted the Astana Think Tank International Forum. The theme of the two-day meeting was “Middle Powers in the Changing Global Order: Strengthening Security, Stability and Sustainable Development.” Experts from 22 countries — heads of leading think tanks, politicians and diplomats — participated and spoke at the event. Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev addressed the forum. The two-day event focused on geopolitical, economic and strategic issues, including the role of mediating countries in resolving global conflicts. One of the main topics was determining the potential of intermediate states in forming a new world system under conditions of geopolitical tension. The experts tried to define the term "middle power" and what countries can be classified as middle powers. The moderator of the key session, Charles McLean, Managing Director of Borderless Consulting Group, invited the participants to answer several questions about the criteria, characteristics, and influence of middle powers in the modern geopolitical context. Dino Patti Djalal, Chair of the Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia (FPCI), suggested categorizing all the of the world's states using analogies to boxing weight classes: heavyweights, middleweights, and lightweights. According to Djalal, middle powers have great potential to create a new world order. “There are several dimensions of middle powers. The first is potential, encompassing territorial and demographic size factors, political and economic weight, and a state's foreign policy ambitions. The second dimension is a moderate stance on major global issues,” Djalal said. Citing Kazakhstan as an example of a middle power, Djalal stated that Kazakhstan has achieved this status due to its balanced position, which allows it to exert some influence on the formation of the world order. Djalal emphasized that, even today, middle states (the bulk of which are concentrated in the Global South) can solve regional issues without the participation of so-called 'world powers'. “Look at Southeast Asia. Indonesia and Singapore solve their issues directly, without external influence. Naturally, this situation is developing in the conditions of weakening U.S. influence. Middle powers are dictating new rules,” Djalal noted, and should voice their positions on the global agenda, so their “voice” will be heard and become more “powerful.” Michel Duclos, Special Advisor on Geopolitics, suggested that regional powers whose activities have a global impact should be considered middle powers. “The great challenge for middle powers is establishing peace and stabilizing the situation. However, a common platform for all middle powers must be formed. This applies to the Global South and the Global North. France and others are reforming the UN Security Council,” Duclos stated. Joshua Lincoln from the Center for International Law and Governance at the Fletcher School (Tufts University), meanwhile, believes that increasing competition between great powers opens a “window of opportunity” for medium-sized states. “Geopolitical rivalries, the fragmentation of the world order, and the disillusionment of many with existing international institutions offer middle powers an opportunity to bring order to today's chaos. Their stance can enormously contribute to the world's security, stability, and sustainability. However, no country, even...

International Diplomacy

Ambassador of Taliban-led Afghanistan Starts Work in Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has reported that on October 9, Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov received Abdul Ghafar Terawi, the new head of Afghanistan’s diplomatic mission to Uzbekistan, in Tashkent. During talks, both parties emphasized the need to enhance relations between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, realize the untapped potential of cooperation, and develop new projects to serve the interests of their people. The ambassador expressed gratitude on behalf of Afghanistan for the ongoing assistance provided by Uzbekistan. Speaking at the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly late in September, Uzbek Foreign Minister Saidov stated that Afghanistan is an integral part of Central Asia and addressing the Afghan problem is key to ensuring stability and sustainable development in the region. “Uzbekistan is pursuing a pragmatic policy towards Afghanistan. We will continue to contribute to Afghanistan’s economic reconstruction and the development of its transport and energy infrastructure,” announced the Uzbek foreign minister. He also commended Uzbekistan's implementation of the ambitious construction of the Trans-Afghan railway, which by providing access to global ports, will have a positive impact on the economic development of the vast region. The minister emphasized that the International Trade Center, recently established in the Uzbek city of Termez on the Afghan border, was designed to foster a favorable business environment and enhance logistics, and added that Uzbekistan is ready to expand the Educational Center for Afghan citizens in Termez into a global training center. Afghanistan’s TOLOnews earlier reported that China and the United Arab Emirates had also officially accepted ambassadors from the Taliban-led Afghan government. Early in September, Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a decision to remove the Taliban from the list of prohibited organizations within the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. The Ministry emphasized that the removal of the Taliban, the unrecognized group that effectively controls Afghanistan, from the list of banned terrorist organizations aims to enhance regional stability and support ongoing dialogue. Early in June, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced that his country had removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, stressing that the move was made to develop trade and economic ties with Taliban-led Afghanistan, and in late August, Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry accredited a chargé d’affaires of Taliban-led Afghanistan to expand trade, economic, and humanitarian cooperation between the two countries.

International Relations

Kazakhstan Seeks Co-Production Venture with Italy

Following the Kazakh-Italian forum, "Kazakhstan–Italy: Trade and Investment Opportunities on the Way to Kazakhstan," on October 8 in Milan, the Kazakh Ministry of Trade and Integration reported that discussions had focused on renewable energy, the agro-industrial sector, tourism, pharmaceuticals, and technological innovations, with an emphasis on Kazakhstan's strategic importance in economic cooperation between Europe and Central Asia. The event came in the wake of Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev official visit to Italy in January 2024, which marked a significant step in strengthening Kazakh-Italian relations. The Minister of Trade and Integration of Kazakhstan Arman Shakkaliyev noted that Italy is one of Kazakhstan's key trading partners in the European Union with one of the three largest trade turnovers, and proposed the introduction of "Made with Italy"; a concept aimed to promote products created in collaboration with Italian companies. Valentino Valentini, Deputy Minister at the Italian Ministry of Enterprise and Made in Italy supported the notion and stressed that joint projects would stimulate the development of small and medium-sized businesses in both countries. Essential to the initiative, would be the creation of centers of excellence for the transition to European quality standards in Kazakhstan. To ensure the rapid entry of Kazakh products into the EU and Italian markets, such centers would issue certificates of equivalence of manufactured products to EU regulations. The forum also discussed prospects in the tourism sector, with Italian Minister of Tourism Daniela Santanke noting the significant potential for the growth of tourist exchange, facilitated by the launch of direct flights between Astana and Milan. The forum launched Kazakh companies' first trade and economic mission to Italy, involving over 50 enterprises representing agriculture, oilfield services, textile industry, tourism, and IT sectors. According to Kazakh statistics, in 2023, the trade turnover between Kazakhstan and Italy amounted to $16.1 billion, an increase of 7.8% since the previous year, with exports from Kazakhstan reaching $14.8 billion. In January-August 2024, bilateral trade increased by 33% to $13.8 billion, with Kazakh exports rising by 36% to $12.9 billion. Kazakhstan's main exports to Italy comprise crude oil (+38.1%), coal (309-fold increase), flax seeds ($4.1 million increase), and propylene polymers (71-fold increase).