State Visit - The Times Of Central Asia

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EAEU

EAEU Summit in Astana: Is Moscow Pushing Armenia Toward the Exit?

Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to arrive in Astana on May 27 for a state visit, while the Eurasian Economic Forum and a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council will take place in Kazakhstan’s capital on May 28-29. Against the backdrop of increasingly strained relations between Moscow and Yerevan, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will not attend the summit. Armenia will instead be represented by Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan. Kazakhstan’s presidential administration has already outlined the agenda for the visit. Putin is expected to receive full state honors. After the official welcoming ceremony, Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will hold bilateral talks. On May 28-29, Tokayev, Putin, and other EAEU leaders are expected to take part in the Eurasian Economic Forum and the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meetings. Strategic Partnership and Growing Pressure Political analyst Andrey Chebotarev said the agenda of the Tokayev-Putin talks is likely to focus on implementing the declaration signed during Tokayev’s state visit to Russia in November 2025, which raised Kazakhstan-Russia relations to the level of a “comprehensive strategic partnership and alliance.” The declaration envisioned expanded cooperation in politics, security, economics, integration, high technology, and humanitarian affairs. According to Chebotarev, the two presidents now need to define concrete mechanisms for implementing those agreements. Among the most sensitive issues is the planned construction of Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant with the participation of Russia’s Rosatom. Astana, Chebotarev argued, is particularly interested in ensuring the continuity of the project as Western sanctions against Moscow tighten. Another key issue is the uninterrupted transit of Kazakh oil exports to Europe through Russian territory. “This issue is especially relevant given, first, the suspension of oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline, which the Russian side explains as being due to technical reasons, and second, the continuing Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian ports of Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga on the Black and Baltic seas,” Chebotarev said. Other likely topics include logistics linked to the North-South transport corridor and the worsening decline in the Caspian Sea’s water level, particularly ahead of the planned seventh summit of Caspian littoral states later this year. Information Wars and the Golden Horde Debate The Putin-Tokayev meeting is taking place against an increasingly difficult information backdrop shaped by several Russian media outlets and commentators. Russian public discourse has continued to react strongly to the recent international symposium in Astana dedicated to the legacy of the Golden Horde, as well as to Tokayev’s remarks during the event. Kazakh political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev, commenting ahead of Putin’s visit, argued that Kazakhstan-Russia relations were being subjected to “attacks and information provocations.” He described this as part of a campaign to turn Kazakhstan into “a platform for confrontation with Russia” amid the broader Russia-West conflict. He added that similar efforts were visible in attempts to inflame tensions between Kazakhstan and China. At the same time, Ashimbayev avoided publicly criticizing Russian opinion leaders, many of whom have become increasingly vocal in questioning the alliance between Moscow and Astana. Armenia’s Growing...

State Visit

Erdoğan Visit Highlights Kazakhstan’s Middle Corridor Strategy

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to Kazakhstan highlighted the growing importance of the Middle Corridor in Ankara-Astana relations, while also showing how Kazakhstan is trying to deepen ties with Turkey without abandoning its multi-vector foreign policy. According to experts, the central issue discussed during negotiations was the development of the Middle Corridor, officially known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). The importance of the route was underscored directly by Erdoğan during a joint media briefing following the talks. The Turkish president highlighted the strategic significance of the East-West-Mediterranean transit corridor crossing the Caspian Sea, describing it as a “modern version of the Silk Road,” the relevance of which is becoming increasingly apparent. The Kazakh side sought to frame the visit within a broader political and cultural context. The declaration signed by the two presidents, along with other documents exchanged by the official delegations, pointed less to a breakthrough than to the continued expansion of existing political, economic, transport, and cultural cooperation. Kazakhstan and Turkey agreed to deepen cultural, humanitarian, and economic cooperation, while continuing joint investment projects, including the further infrastructure development of Almaty International Airport, which is managed by Turkey’s TAV Holding. Political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev noted that the tone of the visit was largely shaped by an unusually emotional and ceremonial welcome. “Tokayev called Erdoğan a ‘dear brother’ and described his visit as a ‘historic event.’ Erdoğan, in turn, thanked the Kazakh leader for the invitation to visit the ‘land of ancestors.’ Tokayev twice emphasized that there are ‘no disagreements or contradictions’ between Kazakhstan and Turkey. He described Erdoğan’s policies as ‘balanced and far-sighted,’ while noting Turkey’s steadily growing influence on the global stage,” Ashimbayev wrote. According to Ashimbayev, Tokayev also praised Turkey as a “golden bridge” connecting Europe and Asia, as well as the broader Turkic world. At the same time, the analyst pointed out that Erdoğan, in an article written for the Kazinform agency, also sharply condemned what he described as Israel’s “crimes” against shared human values, despite Kazakhstan maintaining strong and mutually beneficial ties with Israel. “Contrary to some interpretations, Erdoğan’s visit did not resemble an inspection by a ‘senior brother.’ The Turkish leader was welcomed with maximum ceremony and genuine warmth, but the format of cooperation itself clearly points to equal relations in the economic and humanitarian spheres,” Ashimbayev argued. “Kazakhstan has its own clearly defined position on a broad range of international and domestic issues, and those positions are neither subject to outside discussion nor imply following anyone else’s political line,” he added. Alena Dmitriyeva, head of analysis and communications at the Youth Research Center, said the negotiations reflected the emergence of a new architecture of cooperation across Eurasia. “Ankara gains access to Central Asia, while Astana gains access to alternative transport routes,” Dmitriyeva said, pointing to intensified cooperation on the Trans-Caspian corridor, development of the Aktau and Kuryk ports, and increased oil shipments through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Cooperation with Turkey has already helped reduce cargo transit times along the Middle...

State Visit

Rahmon Looks to China as Tajikistan’s Options Narrow

Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon just finished a state visit to China. Rahmon has made trips to China many times during the nearly 34 years he has been in power in Tajikistan, but this visit came during a critical period. Simply put, Tajikistan is losing the international importance it once had, and China might now be the most dependable friend remaining for Rahmon and his country. A ‘Sweet’ Start China established diplomatic ties with all five Central Asian countries at the start of 1992. Just months later, a civil war broke out in Tajikistan that would last until June 1997, but that did not deter China from seeking investment opportunities in Tajikistan. China funded the construction of a sugar plant in Kurgan-Tepe in 1992, and later helped build confectioneries in large cities and towns in Tajikistan, as well as providing 10,000 tons of feed for livestock and, in 1994, extending a $50-million loan to Tajikistan. In April 1996, Rahmon and the leaders of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan met in Shanghai and formed the Shanghai Five, which, after the inclusion of Uzbekistan five years later, would become the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). China used the SCO to improve economic ties with all the Central Asian members, but while Chinese investment in Tajikistan was far less than in Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan, it was extremely important for Tajikistan, which was, and remains, the poorest country in Central Asia. After the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001, and the start of the U.S.-led campaign in Afghanistan, China gave equipment and winter uniforms to Tajikistan’s border guards. Later, China also helped fund the construction of Tajik border posts along the frontier with Afghanistan, and Beijing is set to help finance nine more border posts. Security along Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan is also in China’s interest. China shares an approximately 475-kilometer border with Tajikistan. Eastern Tajikistan is mountainous, remotely inhabited, and shares a long border with Afghanistan. China is concerned about the ability of potential enemies to move from Afghanistan through eastern Tajikistan and enter China. That is why, less than ten years ago, China built a small, forward observation military post in eastern Tajikistan, not far from the Chinese border. Militant groups such as the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement, comprised mainly of Uyghurs from China’s Xinjiang Region, and the Islamic State of Khorasan Province, which has explicitly threatened China, are present in northern Afghanistan. Chinese companies have been building Tajikistan’s infrastructure for some 20 years: roads, power transmission lines, the Dushanbe thermal power plant, hydropower plants, factories, and other objects. In 2025, China finally surpassed Russia to become Tajikistan’s leading trade partner, and Chinese-Tajik trade turnover in the first three months of 2026 increased by more than 52% compared to Q1 in 2025. Changing Times China is likely to remain Tajikistan’s leading trade partner and more for the foreseeable future. The geopolitical situation in Central Asia has changed, and not in Tajikistan’s favor. The biggest change for Rahmon and his country...

State Visit

Erdoğan Visit Puts Trade, Transit, and Turkic Economic Integration at Center of Kazakhstan’s OTS Push

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to Kazakhstan comes as Astana is trying to give the Organization of Turkic States a more practical economic role, linking trade, investment, transport, digital development, and business financing across the Turkic world. The visit centered on three connected events: Erdoğan’s official visit to Astana, the sixth meeting of the Kazakhstan-Turkey High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council, and the informal summit of the Organization of Turkic States in Turkistan. Erdoğan arrived in Astana ahead of talks with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, while Turkish media reported that the agenda included transport links through the Middle Corridor, Caspian transit routes, energy security, logistics, defense industry cooperation, trade and investment. The visit also carried strong symbolic staging. According to Akorda, Erdoğan’s aircraft was escorted by Kazakh Air Defense fighter jets after entering Kazakhstan’s airspace. At Astana airport, he was greeted by an honor guard, children waving the flags of Kazakhstan and Turkey, and military helicopters displaying the national symbols of both countries. Erdoğan later said the welcome had brought his delegation “enormous joy,” adding, “We certainly will not forget this.” [caption id="attachment_48862" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Kazakh aircraft fly over Astana during the ceremonial welcome for Erdoğan. Image: Akorda[/caption] The OTS summit is being hosted by Kazakhstan on May 15 in Turkistan under the theme “Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development.” According to the organization, the summit is intended to advance cooperation on artificial intelligence, digital innovation, emerging technologies, public services, sustainable economic growth, and regional connectivity. The digital theme reflects Kazakhstan’s effort to give the OTS a more practical economic role, beyond its cultural and diplomatic foundations. Ahead of the summit, Astana hosted a business forum on May 13 under the title “Economic Integration and Cooperation of the OTS Countries: New Opportunities in Industry, Agro-Industrial Complex, Logistics and Digitalization.” Kazakhstan’s prime minister’s office said the forum brought together state bodies, financial institutions, chambers of commerce, international organizations, and business representatives from OTS countries. Kanat Sharlapayev, chairman of the Union of Chambers of Commerce and Industry of Turkic States and of the presidium of Kazakhstan’s Atameken National Chamber of Entrepreneurs, urged Turkic countries to move toward deeper industrial and digital integration. He said the task was to create a unified digital environment, reduce the distance between producers and consumers, increase transparency, and speed up transactions. The forum also discussed plans for joint industrial facilities and manufacturing zones along transport corridors, an idea that would push OTS cooperation beyond transit toward processing and value-added production. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin used the forum to frame OTS cooperation as one of Kazakhstan’s foreign economic priorities. He said the OTS countries form a market of more than 170 million people and have significant industrial, transport, agricultural, and human potential. He also said the main task was to move from declarations to joint projects, new production, technology alliances, and mutual investment. Silk Way TV reported that Murat Karimsakov, chairman of the Kazakh Chamber of International Commerce, said trade turnover among OTS countries increased...

Sergey Lavrov

Lavrov in Astana as Kazakhstan Prepares for Putin State Visit

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has visited Astana for talks with Kazakhstan’s leadership, as the two countries prepare for a planned state visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin in late May. Lavrov arrived in Kazakhstan on April 29. The main working part of the visit took place on April 30, with meetings with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said the agenda covered political, trade, economic, cultural, and humanitarian ties, as well as cooperation in the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Commonwealth of Independent States, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. At expanded talks in Astana, Kosherbayev said Russia remains one of Kazakhstan’s key trade partners. Bilateral trade exceeded $27 billion last year, and the two governments are working toward a target of $30 billion. Kosherbayev said the talks covered energy, transport, logistics, industry, digitalization, cultural ties, and international issues. The foreign ministers signed a cooperation plan between the two ministries for 2027-2028 during the visit. Kosherbayev said the plan reflected close coordination between Astana and Moscow on bilateral and international issues. The visit also comes ahead of Putin’s expected trip to Kazakhstan. The Kremlin said in February that Putin had confirmed his participation in the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting in Astana in late May and accepted Tokayev’s invitation to make a state visit linked to the event. For Kazakhstan, relations with Russia remain a central part of its multi-vector diplomacy, alongside growing ties with China, the European Union, Turkey, the Gulf states, and the United States. The two countries share a long border, have deep trade links, and work together through several regional organizations. Russia also remains central to Kazakhstan’s energy export network. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near Novorossiysk handles roughly 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports. That gives Astana a strong reason to keep stable ties with Moscow, but it also explains why Kazakhstan is pushing to diversify transport routes. The government has promoted the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor, as a way to move freight between China, Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Europe with less reliance on Russian territory. The war in Ukraine has made that approach harder to sustain. Kazakhstan has kept ties with Moscow, but Tokayev has also stressed the importance of the UN Charter, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. In a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on August 10, 2025, Tokayev said Kazakhstan supported the UN Charter, the inviolability of sovereign borders, and the territorial integrity of sovereign states. Economic pressure has also grown. Western governments have increased scrutiny of trade routes that could be used to bypass sanctions on Russia. Kazakhstan has tried to protect its own trade from that pressure while avoiding a direct break with Moscow. Energy adds another dimension. Any disruption to the CPC route can quickly become a national economic issue for Kazakhstan. In April, Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said CPC exports through the Black Sea remained stable after Russia reported...

Rahmon in Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan and Tajikistan Launch 10 Joint Projects During Rahmon’s State Visit

Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev welcomed his Tajik counterpart Emomali Rahmon to Tashkent on March 26 for a state visit marked by high-level talks, and the launch of joint economic projects. Talks between the presidents followed, first in a one-on-one format and then during the inaugural meeting of the Supreme Interstate Council, a new platform aimed at deepening bilateral cooperation. Mirziyoyev described the visit as a landmark in bilateral relations, noting that the council would elevate cooperation and provide a mechanism for implementing joint initiatives. Both sides highlighted the increasing frequency of contacts between government institutions, parliaments, and agencies. In the lead-up to the visit, a series of events took place, including an intergovernmental commission meeting, an industrial exhibition, and forums involving regional leaders, academics, and youth. Uzbekistan also hosted Days of Tajik Culture and Cinema. During the discussions, Mirziyoyev and Rahmon reviewed opportunities to expand cooperation across key sectors, including trade, industry, transport, and water and energy security. Bilateral trade approached $1 billion last year, driven largely by the exchange of finished goods. The two countries aim to double this figure to $2 billion by 2030. Planned measures include accelerating the establishment of the Oybek-Fotekhobod border trade center, introducing digital certification systems and “E-Permit” mechanisms, and modernizing border infrastructure. The sides also agreed to adopt an industrial cooperation program covering mining, energy, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing. Following the council meeting, Mirziyoyev and Rahmon attended a ceremony to launch 10 joint projects. These include new enterprises producing furniture and leather goods, expanded household appliance manufacturing, textile production facilities in Tajikistan, and construction projects in Tashkent. Additional initiatives include food processing plants in Uzbekistan's Fergana region, dairy production in the city of Andijan, and facilities for making fruit juice and metal briquettes in the country's Surkhandarya region. A ceremony was also held to name a street in New Tashkent after Dushanbe, underscoring symbolic ties between the two capitals. The visit also featured the opening of a new building for Tajikistan’s embassy in Tashkent. The complex includes administrative offices, a consular section, a residence for the ambassador, and housing for diplomatic staff and their families. Cultural diplomacy formed another key part of the visit. Mirziyoyev and Rahmon attended a joint concert at the International Forums Palace featuring performers from both countries, with a program highlighting shared cultural heritage and longstanding ties between the Uzbek and Tajik peoples. The leaders also discussed regional and international issues, reaffirming their commitment to continued dialogue and cooperation within Central Asia. They agreed to strengthen coordination on security matters and expand interregional ties, as well as humanitarian, educational, and scientific exchanges. Given the presence of large diaspora communities in both countries, a proposal was put forward to adopt a five-year program aimed at strengthening cultural and humanitarian connections. At the conclusion of the visit, both sides agreed to develop a comprehensive roadmap to ensure implementation of the agreements reached, signaling continued efforts to expand cooperation across political, economic, and cultural spheres.