Turkmenistan - The Times Of Central Asia

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IMF Forecasts 2.3% Growth in Turkmenistan’s Economy

In her report on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission to Turkmenistan, from 27 March – 9 April, Ms. Anna Bordon announced that Turkmenistan’s economy is set to expand by around at 2.3% in the coming year. According to the IMF mission’s assessment of the economic outlook and risks of Turkmenistan’s macroeconomic and financial developments, the country’s economic activity moderated in 2023 and inflation is on the rise. IMF staff estimate that post-pandemic growth surged to 5.3% in 2022 before falling to 2% in early 2023 as world commodity prices subsided, monetary policy tightened, and pressures on exchange rates abated. A temporary situation, inflation began to pick up later in 2023 and is projected to gradually rise to 8% mainly due to the country’s policy to increase public sector wages and pensions by 10% per year. “To improve spending efficiency, Turkmenistan should enhance its targeting of social spending, move toward public wage increases based on performance, and enhance public investment management,” said Ms Borden. The IMF estimates that growth of hydrocarbon production will stabilize at around 2%. In contrast, non-hydrocarbon growth is expected to remain subdued, given the challenging geopolitical and business environment, investment inefficiencies, the significant overvaluation of real exchange rates, and burdensome standards imposed by international regulations. The end of mission statement concluded: “The authorities are adequately focused on economic diversification. A more market-based economic diversification strategy would be preferable. Sustained macroeconomic stability is a pre-requisite for diversification, which importantly requires adjusting the exchange rate and eliminating exchange restrictions.” It was also recommended that Turkmenistan “gradually phase out administrative controls and reduce the footprint of the state in the economy”.

Turkmenistan USA Strategic Partnership

Turkmenistan and USA Set to Strengthen Partnership

On 14 April, delegations led by Rashid Meredov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan and John Pommersheim, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, attended an annual political consultation in Ashgabat. The meeting focused on the current state and prospects for the development of Turkmen-American relations in political, trade, economic, ecology, culture, education, and humanitarian sectors. According to the Turkmen Foreign Ministry, both parties confirmed their commitment to cultural and educational programs, through monthly meetings, and approved a joint road map in the field of education. The American delegation welcomed Turkmenistan's accession to the Global Methane Commitment which underlines both countries’ determination to resolve environmental problems and create sustainable socio-economic development. The parties welcomed the establishment of inter-parliamentary cooperation as essential for maintaining contacts and coordinated approaches to resolving pressing issues.

Economy Finance Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kazakhstan Banking Central Asia China Uzbekistan

ADB Forecasts Faltering Economic Growth

The People's Republic of China (PRC) will remain the engine of growth for the world economy, even despite some slowdown. That forecast has been made by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) specialists in their report, Asian Development Outlook. Inflation is expected to decline in 2024 and 2025 after the increase in food prices in many countries over the past two years - and developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region will grow by an average of 4.9%, according to the ADB. Experts predict the highest economic growth for India: where the economy will grow by 7% this year and 7.2% next year. As for China, experts are more reserved in their forecasts: China's growth will slow to 4.8% this year and 4.5% next year. "Obviously, China will play an important role for some time to come. It still accounts for almost half of the GDP [gross domestic product] in the Asia-Pacific region," said ADB chief economist ,Albert Park. At the same time, economists also warned of possible risks: supply chain disruptions, uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy, the effects of extreme weather, and volatility in the PRC's real estate market. Inflation in developing Asia-Pacific economies is expected to fall to 3.2% this year and 3% next year as global price pressures ease and monetary policy remains tight in many countries. However, inflation in the region, with the exception of China, is still higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the bank's forecasts, economic growth in Uzbekistan will slow this year and grow slightly next year. This is because higher state-regulated prices will limit the growth of real household incomes, thus reducing demand. Economists expect a lower growth in services and agriculture. Lower remittances, fiscal space constraints, and lower global demand for Tajikistan's main exports will cause Tajikistan's economic growth to slow slightly in 2024 and 2025, the ADB said. "Tajikistan faces serious climate challenges and risks that could lead to irreversible economic, social, and environmental damage," said the ADB 's resident representative in Tajikistan, Shanny Campbell. The ADB says developing a green economy is key to the country's sustainable growth. As for its nearest neighbor, Kazakhstan, the ADB has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 3.8%, down from 4.3% in the previous review. In 2025, the figure is expected to be 5.3%. Actual GDP growth at the end of 2023 was at 5.1%. "The growth rate of Kazakhstan's economy in 2024 will decrease against the background of slowdown in industrial growth due to stagnation in oil production and then recover in 2025 due to the growth of resource extraction at the Tengiz field and investments. Prospects for Kazakhstan's economic growth in the medium term look positive," ADB analysts said. As for developed economies globally, their growth will slow down this year: GDP growth in the U.S. will fall to 1.9% from last year's 2.5%, and in Japan, GDP will grow by 0.6% compared to 1.9% in 2023.

Central Asia Banking Turkmenistan

People in Turkmenistan Losing Money Due to Bank Glitches

According to news portal Turkmen.news, clients of a number of banks in Turkmenistan are inexplicably losing money from their accounts due to technical problems. On April 8-9, Dayhanbank customers discovered deficits of several hundred manat in their accounts. The amounts ranged from about 150 ($88.24) to 800 manat ($470.59). and in some cases their accounts were left in the red. When customers complained to the bank, they said it was a technical glitch and everything would be back to normal by the evening. In most cases, the amounts withdrawn was refunded to the customer’s account later that same day. According to the report, only by obtaining a bank statement and carefully checking all expenses would one be able to identify the discrepancy.

Turkmenistan Migration Legislation

Turkmenistan Stops Selling Tickets to Russia for Migrant Laborers

In a number of regions of Turkmenistan, the sale of air tickets to citizens who have received an official offer to work in Russia has been suspended, according to news portal Turkmen.news. The halting of ticket sales is related to the terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall near Moscow on March 22 of this year. Following the attack on March 22, the departure of labor migrants from Turkmenistan to Russia suddenly stopped. Those who have received invitations to work and applied for visas have learned that they cannot purchase tickets for the time being. Recently, twelve undocumented workers from Turkmenistan, who worked in one of the markets in Domodedovo near Moscow, were arrested. Four were released after being fined, and eight were transferred to a special detention center in the city of Yegoryevsk, Moscow region, for deportation. According to Chronicles Turkmenistan, there are 47 citizens of Turkmenistan being held at a pre-trial detention center in Vidnoye who are awaiting deportation. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan and the Russian Government has begun discussing the possibility of suspending the issuance of visas for Turkmens for at least one and a half years. An exception will be made only for diplomats and representatives of large businesses, according to a report.

Turkmenistan Economic Growth

Turkmenistan’s GDP Expands by 6.3% in First Quarter of 2024

In the first quarter of 2024, Turkmenistan demonstrated stable economic growth, President Serdar Berdimuhamedov said at a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers, where the results of the first three months of this year were summarized. Berdimuhamedov stated that positive dynamics are evident in the key economic indicators. Specifically, industrial production increased by 4.7 %, the transport and communication sector by 6.6%, the service sector by 7.6%, the trade sector by 8.2%, and the agricultural sector by 4.1%. The country's average salary also rose by 10% in the first quarter. In addition to the country’s economic growth, the president observed that the country is rapidly developing its large industrial and social infrastructure, which includes new villages, residential buildings, entertainment and medical facilities, and supporting families with new schools and kindergartens. These initiatives are being carried out in accordance with Turkmenistan's 2022–2028 socioeconomic development strategic program.