Water Shortages - The Times Of Central Asia

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Hydropower

Water Shortages Cut Hydropower Output in Uzbekistan

Electricity generation at Uzbekistan’s hydropower plants has declined significantly due to water shortages, Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamahmudov told lawmakers during a recent session of the Legislative Chamber of the country's parliament, the Oliy Majlis, according to reports in Uzbek media. Mirzamahmudov said water inflows to major hydropower facilities had fallen by 35%, directly impacting electricity production compared with last year. He was responding to a question from deputy Saydullo Azimov, who inquired about the ongoing decline in hydropower output. “The main reason for the drop in electricity generation at large hydropower plants compared to last year is the reduced water inflow,” Mirzamahmudov said. He added that while Uzbekistan has commissioned a number of small and micro hydropower stations, with capacities ranging from one to five megawatts, these facilities collectively produced only about 140 million kilowatt hours of electricity. This output, he noted, remains limited and cannot compensate for the shortfall at major plants. Mirzamahmudov reaffirmed the government's commitment to further developing the hydropower sector but acknowledged its heavy reliance on water availability. To reduce dependence on natural gas and enhance energy security, Uzbekistan is increasingly investing in alternative energy sources. “We are paying special attention to solar and wind power, as well as energy storage systems,” he said, noting that these options offer more consistent short-term performance. He also revealed plans to construct pumped-storage power plants, which store excess electricity for use during peak demand periods. However, he pointed out that building a large hydropower facility typically takes six to ten years, making green energy projects the most viable option for addressing immediate energy needs. In a related development, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan agreed in July to a new phase of electricity trade. Under the deal, power from Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Plant will be exported to Uzbekistan at an initial rate of 3.4¢ per kilowatt hour. The agreement, which has a 20-year term with automatic extensions, builds on electricity exports that Tajikistan has supplied to Uzbekistan each summer since 2018.

Irrigation

South Kazakhstan Braces for Irrigation Water Shortages in 2026

On December 4–5, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev, accompanied by Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Nurzhan Nurzhigitov and Minister of Agriculture Aidarbek Saparov, visited the southern regions of Turkistan, Kyzylorda, and Zhambyl. The delegation met with local farmers to address the growing risks posed by declining transboundary water inflows and to discuss measures to ensure efficient water use during the 2026 irrigation season. Agriculture in these arid regions depends heavily on water from the Syr Darya River, which originates in Kyrgyzstan. According to the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector consumed 11.01 billion cubic meters of water during the 2025 irrigation season, with 98% used in the south. The Zhambyl region irrigated 79,000 hectares using 1 billion m³ of water and remains largely reliant on upstream supplies from Kyrgyzstan. This past season, Kyrgyzstan committed to providing more than 600 million m³ of water to Kazakhstan via the transboundary Chu and Talas rivers. The Kyzylorda and Turkistan regions were the largest consumers of irrigation water, drawing 3.5 billion m³ and 3.4 billion m³, respectively, to irrigate 125,000 and 400,000 hectares. Officials presented water inflow forecasts for 2026 and outlined measures to improve efficiency amid declining water availability. The Syr Darya basin continues to experience low-flow conditions, with reduced inflows into the Naryn-Syr Darya system threatening irrigation supplies for the upcoming growing season. Farmers were urged to adopt water-saving technologies, limit the cultivation of water-intensive crops, diversify planting, and transition to drought-resistant varieties. Bozumbayev noted that during the recent session of the Interstate Water Coordination Commission in Ashgabat, participating countries projected a further decline in water inflows for 2026. He warned that the Toktogul Reservoir in Kyrgyzstan, located on the Naryn River, a key tributary of the Syr Darya, may reach record-low levels, putting irrigation supplies at serious risk. “Given the continued decline in available water resources, there is a real risk of shortages during the next growing season. This is a natural challenge faced by all Central Asian countries. To minimize the impact, we must accelerate crop diversification and the introduction of water-saving irrigation technologies. The state has created all the necessary conditions for this. This is not simply about conserving water; the country’s water and food security depend on it,” Bozumbayev said. To support adoption of efficient irrigation systems such as drip and sprinkler technologies, the government has increased reimbursement for farmers' costs from 50% to 80%, on drilling wells and installing irrigation equipment. A differentiated irrigation tariff has also been introduced: for farmers using water-saving technologies, the subsidy on irrigation water has been raised from 60% to 85%. These measures have helped expand the area under modern irrigation systems from 312,200 hectares in 2023 to 580,000 hectares in 2025, representing 30% of all irrigated farmland. The government aims to increase this figure to 1.3 million hectares, or 70% of total irrigated land, by 2030. In Kyzylorda, the country’s main rice-producing region, the Ministry of Agriculture has announced that rice cultivation in 2026 must not...

Rivers

Central Asia Faces Growing Water Risks as Qosh Tepa Canal Nears Completion

Kazakh media, Inbusiness.kz, reports that discussions within the Russian Academy of Sciences have revived a decadesold idea to redirect Siberian rivers toward Central Asia. Researchers have proposed that Russia’s Ministry of Science and Higher Education include a study of the project in its state research plan, arguing that the region is entering a critical phase of water scarcity. This renewed debate comes as Afghanistan advances construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal, a massive irrigation project in the country’s north. The first 108 kilometer section began operating in 2023, and work on the second phase is nearing completion. Once fully operational, the 285 kilometer canal is expected to divert more than 15% of the Amu Darya river’s flow to irrigate around 550,000 hectares of farmland in Afghanistan’s drought-prone regions. Construction began in March 2022 and its impact is already being felt across Central Asia. Experts warn the canal could reduce Uzbekistan’s water supply by around 15% and Turkmenistan’s by up to 80%, which may lead to lower crop yields, job losses, rising poverty and even potential migration or tensions. Scholars in Kazakhstan note rising alarm. Ravshan Nazarov, an associate professor based in Tashkent, said that failure to address water shortages could trigger mass population movements. He argued that redirecting Siberian rivers, though technically complex and costly, may become unavoidable. He warned that if Russia does not share its water resources, it might eventually face “an influx of 100 million refugees.” Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) show that Turkmenistan is the region’s largest water consumer, using 53 cubic kilometres annually despite a population of just about 7 million. Experts attribute this to ageing infrastructure, high evaporation losses and a lack of concrete-lined canals. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan has faced water shortages since 2020.

Agriculture

In Kyrgyzstan, Nearly 50,000 Hectares of Arable Land Left Fallow Due to Water Shortages

In 2025, approximately 50,000 hectares of agricultural land in Kyrgyzstan were left uncultivated, according to the National Statistical Committee. This figure represents a significant portion of the country's total arable land area, which stands at 1.292 million hectares. Experts attribute the sharp decline primarily to a lack of moisture during the spring growing season. More than half of the affected land, over 25,000 hectares, suffered from irrigation failures due to the deteriorating state of the country’s water infrastructure. An additional 5,000 hectares lie in inaccessible or rocky terrain, while about 8,000 hectares were previously reassigned for industrial or urban development. The committee also noted a year-on-year increase of 1,100 hectares in the area of fallow land. In the Talas region alone, 25% more land could have been cultivated under better conditions. Across Kyrgyzstan’s regions, the share of idle arable land currently ranges between 10% and 20%. The Ministry of Economy and Commerce reported that the water shortage not only reduced the amount of cultivated land but also impacted crop yields. Many crops ripened several weeks earlier than usual, accelerating the harvest period. As a result, the growth rate of gross agricultural output slowed by more than 2% in the first half of 2025. However, not all sectors were negatively affected. The gross harvest of melons and gourds rose by nearly 13%, vegetable production increased by 12%, and potato yields were up 10% compared to the previous year.

Cotton

Kazakhstan’s Cotton Sector Continues to Shrink

Kazakhstan’s cotton industry is in protracted decline, with key indicators – acreage, harvest volume, and profitability – showing sustained deterioration. Analysts at Energyprom.kz report that small farms, which dominate the sector, are increasingly abandoning cotton in favor of less expensive crops. A Smallholder Sector in Crisis According to the National Statistics Bureau, raw cotton production totaled 61.2 billion KZT ($117.4 million) in 2023, down 8% in real terms from the previous year. This marked the second consecutive year of decline in the physical volume index (PVI), reflecting waning interest in cotton cultivation. The sector comprises around 25,000 agricultural enterprises and employs approximately 70,000 people. Small farms produce 91% of total output but are experiencing the steepest decline: their PVI fell to 88.6% in 2023. In contrast, large enterprises, which account for a minor share of production, saw a 50.7% increase in output. Cotton is grown exclusively in the Turkestan region, where the cultivated area has shrunk from 223,700 hectares in 2003 to just 106,400 hectares in 2023. The gross harvest last year was 301,700 tons, 35.4% less than two decades ago. Modern agricultural technologies have helped maintain relatively stable yields despite shrinking acreage. Water Shortages Undermine the Industry The Ministry of Agriculture identifies severe irrigation water shortages as the primary obstacle to cotton production. While some losses have been mitigated through drip irrigation systems, such technologies are affordable only to large or investor-backed farms. For most smallholders, cotton cultivation has become too costly, prompting a shift to alternative crops. The problem is systemic. In a parliamentary inquiry, Senator Murat Kadyrbek highlighted inadequate financing for agronomic measures and low purchase prices, which leave many farmers barely covering operating costs. Producers are seeking loan deferrals until they can secure income from harvests. Eighty-five percent of Kazakhstan’s cotton is exported as raw material, with only 15% processed domestically. Even this limited share struggles to find buyers. In 2023, domestic processing plants operated at just 19.5% of their design capacity, according to the Bureau of National Statistics. Despite the launch of new facilities, including some with foreign investment, processing remains the industry's weakest link. Rising Costs, Competitive Pressures High processing costs pose a major challenge. Processing cotton in Kazakhstan costs 150,000-170,000 KZT (approximately $300) per tonne, triple the cost in neighboring Uzbekistan and China. Compounding the issue is poor fiber quality. While the global market demands fiber lengths of 35-60 cm, Kazakh cotton typically falls in the 20-25 cm range. “To improve product quality and competitiveness, a dedicated state program for cotton development is urgently needed,” members of parliament urged. They advocate for collaborative action from both government agencies and producers to revitalize the sector.

Water

Experts Warn Central Asia Faces Chronic Water Shortage by 2028

Central Asia is heading toward a severe water crisis as climate change, population growth, and outdated infrastructure put increasing pressure on the region’s water resources, experts have warned. At a recent roundtable on climate change and water management, Stanislav Pritchin, head of the Central Asia sector at the Russian Academy of Sciences, highlighted the growing threat. Climate change is a major factor, as rising temperatures accelerate glacier melt - the primary source of freshwater in Central Asia. Meanwhile, rapid population growth is driving up demand. Uzbekistan, the region’s most populous country, has seen its population increase from 22 million in 1991 to an estimated 37.5 million in 2025. Across Central Asia, the total population is approaching 80 million. Another challenge is outdated infrastructure. Pritchin noted that up to 50% of irrigation water is lost due to inefficient and aging systems. Moreover, the region lacks a strong institutional framework for managing water distribution and policy. While some cooperative projects exist - such as the joint construction of the Kambar-Ata hydropower plant - they are insufficient to address the broader crisis. In response to these challenges, on February 19, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) approved a $125 million loan to help Uzbekistan improve water security, reduce losses, and enhance distribution efficiency. The Climate-Smart Water Management Improvement Project aims to introduce advanced monitoring and management systems. Uzbekistan’s national water utility, Uzsuvtaminot, will implement digital technology to track water flow, minimize waste, and improve service delivery. The initiative will also establish a comprehensive inventory of water supply infrastructure and deploy a nationwide bulk flow metering and telemetry system. “Uzbekistan’s water resources are under acute threat from climate change and inefficient usage,” said ADB Country Director for Uzbekistan, Kanokpan Lao-Araya. “ADB’s project introduces smart water management systems to improve water usage, reduce energy consumption, and increase operational efficiency to lower Uzbekistan’s carbon footprint.” This initiative is part of Uzbekistan’s broader efforts to modernize infrastructure and prepare for future water challenges. However, experts caution that without stronger regional cooperation, no single country can fully resolve the crisis.