Tajikistan continues to record one of the strongest economic growth rates in Central Asia, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in its June 2026 Regional Economic Prospects report.
The EBRD estimates that Tajikistan’s economy grew by 8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, supported by growth in trade, transport and communications, along with strong manufacturing growth and higher electricity generation.
Fixed capital investment rose by 34.2% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, one of the strongest performances in the region.
For comparison, fixed capital investment in neighboring Kyrgyzstan rose by 25.5% during the same period, while Kazakhstan recorded growth of 6.4%.
The bank attributed Tajikistan’s strong investment activity partly to public spending commitments, including the Rogun hydropower project, one of the country’s flagship infrastructure developments. Once completed, Rogun is expected to become a key part of Tajikistan’s power system and a major source of electricity exports to neighboring countries.
The EBRD also noted strong growth in manufacturing, which increased by 29.6% year-on-year in January-March 2026. Electricity generation rose by 7.5%, while mining output contracted by 9.8%.
Officials at Tajikistan’s State Committee on Investment and State Property Management said the figures reflect sustained interest in the country’s economy and create additional opportunities to attract domestic and foreign investors into priority sectors.
Tajikistan has increasingly positioned itself as a regional energy hub, particularly through hydropower.
As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the country has the largest hydropower potential in Central Asia.
Tajikistan’s annual hydropower potential is estimated at 527 billion kilowatt-hours, while the country accounts for a large share of Central Asia’s water resources.
Despite that, much of its hydropower capacity remains untapped. International industry estimates suggest that only around 4% of Tajikistan’s hydropower potential has been developed, leaving significant room for future investment and expansion.
