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Electricity

Kazakhstan Aims to Eliminate Energy Deficit and Begin Electricity Exports by 2027

Kazakhstan is on track to eliminate its domestic electricity deficit within the next year and transition from import reliance to surplus. According to projections by the Ministry of Energy, the country will fully meet internal demand by the end of the first quarter of 2027, and by 2029, it expects to maintain a stable surplus in both electricity and regulating capacity, laying the groundwork for future exports. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov announced the plan during a meeting on the development of the electric power industry. At the close of 2025, Kazakhstan’s electricity generation totaled 123.1 billion kWh, while consumption reached 124.6 billion kWh, resulting in a deficit of over 1 billion kWh. However, this shortfall was less than half the 2 billion kWh gap recorded at the end of 2024, which was offset by imports from Russia, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Installed generation capacity increased over the year from 25.3 to 26.7 GW. While coal-fired power plants continue to dominate, accounting for 51.4% of output, the shares of gas (25.6%) and renewable energy (13.5%) are steadily growing. The Energy Ministry credits market liberalization for helping stabilize the power system. Over the past two years, nearly $1.8 billion in investment, mainly for capital repairs and modernization, has flowed into the sector. As a result, the number of technological violations has dropped by 27%, and nine combined heat and power (CHP) plants have exited the so-called “red zone.” Akkenzhenov noted that generating companies’ owners did not receive dividends, with all profits reinvested into asset renewal. This marks a strategic pivot from short-term profitability to long-term system reliability. Looking ahead to 2035, Kazakhstan plans to add over 26 GW in new generating capacity, including nuclear power. Simultaneously, the government is prioritizing upgrades to existing coal-fired plants using clean coal technologies. Key infrastructure projects include the 2,640 MW Ekibastuz GRES-3 station, a new 700 MW facility in Kurchatov, and CHP plants in Kokshetau, Semey, and Ust-Kamenogorsk. Contractors have been selected, and implementation is already underway. Despite this progress, systemic risks remain. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov has strongly criticized delays in the execution of energy projects. Nuclear power development has emerged as a distinct strategic priority. Kazakhstan plans to construct at least three nuclear power plants. Work on the first began last summer in partnership with Russia’s Rosatom, while two more are expected to be built with the involvement of the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC). President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has described the development of nuclear energy as correcting a “historical absurdity.” Kazakhstan, one of the world’s leading uranium producers and exporters, has yet to use this resource to support its own energy needs.

Green Energy

Tajikistan Accelerates Transition to Green Energy

Tajikistan has launched its largest solar energy initiative to date, marking a significant step in its transition to green energy. The project entails the construction of two photovoltaic power stations with a combined capacity of 500 MW, an unprecedented scale for the country’s energy sector. An investment agreement formalizing the project was signed on 13 January 2026 between the government of Tajikistan and Ayon Energy. The project will involve the development of two equally sized solar power plants: 250 MW in Asht District 250 MW in Jaihun District These new facilities are expected to play a crucial role in mitigating seasonal electricity shortages. Tajikistan, which relies heavily on hydropower, frequently faces deficits during the winter months. The introduction of solar generation capacity will ease pressure on existing hydroelectric resources, improving the reliability of electricity supply for both households and businesses. Ayon Energy has committed to completing the design, construction, and commissioning of the plants within 2026. The total investment is estimated at $250 million. In addition to this approved project, Tajikistan is also evaluating a potential 400 MW solar power plant in partnership with the UAE’s state-owned company Masdar.

Electricity

Kyrgyzstan’s Power Consumption Rises Amid Declining Water Levels at Toktogul Reservoir

Electricity consumption in Kyrgyzstan continues to rise. In 2025, the country consumed 19.3 billion kWh, an increase of 900 million kWh compared to the previous year. Of this total, 15.4 billion kWh was generated domestically, while 3.9 billion kWh was imported from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Russia, officials reported at a government meeting on 14 January. Authorities also highlighted critically low water levels at the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Plant, the country’s largest energy facility, which generates approximately 40% of its electricity. The Toktogul reservoir currently holds 9.102 billion cubic meters of water, a drop of 1.631 billion cubic meters compared to the same date in 2024. The reservoir is approaching the critical or “dead” level of 5.5 billion cubic meters, below which the plant would be unable to generate electricity. Officials at the meeting warned that continued low inflows could force a reduction in power generation and stressed the importance of adhering strictly to electricity consumption limits. Kyrgyzstan has long struggled with seasonal electricity shortages, particularly in winter, when many households rely on electric heating. Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibraev previously cautioned that the 2025–2026 winter season could be one of the most difficult in recent years due to the water shortfall at Toktogul. To address the electricity deficit, Kyrgyzstan is pressing ahead with both the construction of new hydropower projects and the modernization of existing facilities. In November 2025, the country completed a full modernization of Toktogul, located on the Naryn River. The upgrade increased the plant’s capacity from 1,200 MW to 1,440 MW. Kyrgyzstan is also moving forward with the construction of the Kambarata-1 hydropower plant, a strategic regional project being developed in partnership with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Once completed, Kambarata-1 is expected to have a capacity of 1,860 MW and produce 5.6 billion kWh annually.

Railways

AIIB Supports Almaty Railway Bypass with $150 Million Loan

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has signed a landmark $150 million loan agreement to finance the Almaty Railway Bypass Project in Kazakhstan. The funding will be provided to Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), the national railway operator, under a non-sovereign loan structure. The AIIB loan forms part of a broader international financing package of up to $300 million, denominated in Swiss francs. The package is jointly arranged by the International Finance Corporation (IFC), AIIB, and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), with IFC and AIIB providing investment and MIGA offering risk guarantees. According to AIIB, the structure reflects robust international confidence in Kazakhstan’s transport modernization efforts and in KTZ’s strategic role in national infrastructure. The project will support the construction of a new single-track, electrified freight railway bypass along the northern perimeter of Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city. The bypass will extend approximately 75 kilometers, connecting Zhetygen station in the east with Kazybek Bek station in the west. Its primary objective is to redirect freight traffic away from Almaty’s city center by establishing a dedicated cargo corridor. The scope also includes new stations, bridges, overpasses, and upgrades at both terminal points. According to AIIB, the bypass is expected to alleviate congestion on Almaty’s current rail network, enhance passenger service efficiency, and reduce freight delays. By separating passenger and cargo rail lines, the project aims to lower emissions caused by congestion and improve operational safety. AIIB emphasized the project’s role in strengthening Kazakhstan’s position as a regional transit hub by boosting rail efficiency along key Eurasian corridors, including the Middle Corridor. “Strengthening Kazakhstan’s transport backbone is essential for supporting the country’s long-term growth and its role as a key connectivity hub across Eurasia,” said Konstantin Limitovskiy, AIIB’s Chief Investment Officer. He noted that the Almaty bypass addresses a major bottleneck in the national rail system, enabling “faster, cleaner, and more reliable freight movement.” IFC also underscored the regional significance of the initiative. “By addressing key bottlenecks and improving network reliability, the project is expected to generate positive spillovers for trade facilitation, private sector competitiveness, and the overall logistics ecosystem,” said Laura Vecvagare, IFC’s Regional Head of Industry for Infrastructure and Natural Resources. Kazakhstan, a founding member of AIIB, is one of the bank’s most active clients in Central Asia. AIIB stated that the project aligns with its strategic focus on connectivity and regional cooperation. Implementation will be led by Kazakhstan Temir Zholy, with construction set to begin following the conclusion of final procurement procedures. In July of last year, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy secured a separate syndicated loan of up to 480 million Swiss francs (approximately $540 million) for a three-year term. Arranged by Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Deutsche Bank, the loan supports infrastructure development along the Trans-Kazakhstan Railway Corridor.

Geological Exploration

Kazakhstan Makes Its Biggest Bet on Geological Exploration in Decades

Kazakhstan is embarking on its most ambitious geological exploration program in over 15 years. Over the next three years, the government plans to invest more than $470 million in the study of mineral resources, a figure that surpasses the total investment in the sector over the previous decade and a half. According to the government, a central element of this strategy is the shift toward more detailed mapping of mineral resources, aligned with international standards. In 2025, new-generation geological survey projects were launched, covering an area of approximately 100,000 square kilometers. These territories will later be divided into the most promising sites for in-depth exploration and analysis. This initiative is not merely a budgetary expansion but a long-term effort to lay the foundation for Kazakhstan’s future resource base. Detailed mapping helps reduce geological uncertainty and significantly influences private investors’ readiness to commit to early-stage projects. The total funding, set at $470 million, will cover a range of activities, including geological surveys, seismic studies in underexplored sedimentary basins, and the development of modern geological infrastructure. For context, total investment in Kazakhstan’s geological exploration from 2010 to 2025 amounted to $469 million. The program incorporates remote sensing, aero geophysical and geochemical studies, and large-scale fieldwork. In identifying high-potential sites, authorities considered factors such as reserve depletion, low activity by current subsoil users, and the strategic value of specific minerals. The government has highlighted regions with strong potential for copper, gold, lead, zinc, rare earth elements, barite, and bauxite. A dedicated portion of the program will focus on seismic exploration in the largely understudied oil and gas basins in the north and south of the country. Plans also include modernizing laboratory and analytical capabilities and digitizing geological data. The shift to high-resolution mapping, already standard practice in countries such as Canada, Australia, and EU member states, is expected to improve forecasting accuracy and reduce investment risks. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan has emerged as a global leader in proven reserves of rare earth metals, driving renewed interest from international companies in the country’s expanding geological exploration sector.

Employment

Kyrgyzstan Reduces Working Hours for Certain Professions

The Kyrgyz government has approved a new list of worker categories subject to “special working conditions,” for whom reduced working hours will now be implemented. According to the official decree, the measure aims to formally regulate the working time of employees in high-stress or hazardous roles, taking into account the specific nature of their professional duties. The order applies to over 100 professions across healthcare, sanitary and epidemiological control, pharmaceuticals, diagnostic and laboratory services, as well as social and educational institutions. Under the new regulations, many employees in these fields will see their workday reduced to five or six hours, depending on their role and workplace conditions. Medical professions associated with elevated occupational risks received particular attention in the drafting of the list. Among the affected are personnel working with infectious diseases, psychiatric and tuberculosis patients, emergency medical services, pathology departments, and morgues. The list also includes laboratory specialists handling dangerous pathogens or toxic substances, as well as those exposed to ionizing radiation or radioactive materials. Special provisions have been made for medical workers involved in gamma therapy and experimental gamma irradiation. For these roles, the government has set a maximum working day of four hours, the shortest among all categories covered by the regulation.