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President Tokayev

Kazakhstan Court Ruling Clears Legal Path for Tokayev to Seek Another Term

Kazakhstan’s Constitutional Court has ruled that President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev may seek another term under the country’s 2026 Constitution, effectively resetting the count created under the previous Basic Law while leaving the single seven-year presidential term formally in place. The ruling, issued on July 7 after Tokayev’s request, addressed whether people who held senior offices under the 1995 Constitution could be elected or appointed to those posts under the new Basic Law, adopted in a March 15 referendum and in force since July 1. The offices covered include the president, the chair and judges of the Constitutional Court, the chair of the Supreme Court, and the prosecutor general. The court said restrictions in the 2026 Constitution are linked only to elections and appointments made under the new constitutional order and laws adopted on its basis. It said the new Constitution contains no provision requiring terms, elections, or appointments under the 1995 Basic Law to be counted when the new limits are applied. The court’s official interpretation says people who held those offices under the 1995 Constitution “may be elected or appointed to the corresponding positions after the 2026 Constitution enters into force.” In practical terms, the ruling removes the main legal barrier that had been assumed to prevent Tokayev from appearing on the presidential ballot again. Tokayev was elected in November 2022 to what was presented as a single, non-renewable seven-year term ending in 2029. He has not announced another run, and the ruling does not set a timetable for a presidential election. Speculation has also continued over whether Tokayev could seek a future international role, including as UN secretary-general. According to political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev, the Constitutional Court’s clarification resolves a strategic issue over the president’s term of office. He recalled that Tokayev’s 2022 election followed an earlier constitutional reform that introduced the single seven-year presidential term. A later dilemma emerged because the previous constitutional rules would have required elections to be held in December 2028, almost a year before the end of the seven-year mandate. “In the new Constitution, these formulations were changed, but a new question emerged: does the new Constitution require a review of terms in connection with the reset of political institutions? The text itself contained no relevant provisions. At a press briefing on voting day, Tokayev said the next elections would be held in 2029,” Ashimbayev said, adding that Tokayev’s appeal showed that the issue would be handled through constitutional procedure rather than political assumption. The court, he said, indicated that adoption of the new Constitution does not mean the automatic extension of norms contained in the old Constitution or decisions adopted on its basis. “Thus, the single seven-year term is confirmed, but it will be counted from the moment elections are held. The Constitution, however, prohibits holding presidential and parliamentary elections at the same time, which moves the presidential issue to the autumn,” Ashimbayev said. “It is clear that this is about the right, not the obligation, of the incumbent head of state to...

Fuel Shortage

Uzbekistan Faces Fuel Shortage Pressure as Imports Rise

Central Asia is facing a new wave of tension in the market for fuels and lubricants. Shortages of gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel have affected the entire region to varying degrees, but the situation is developing differently in each country. For Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the problem is one of direct import dependence. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which have their own production and refining capacity, are in a more stable position. However, rapidly growing domestic demand is increasingly tying them to imports. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Kazakhstan is tightening domestic controls, building up reserves ahead of refinery maintenance, and considering fuel imports from China to protect its own market. Kyrgyzstan, meanwhile, has appealed to Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan for help in securing fuel supplies, as shortages inside Russia are placing additional pressure on the local fuel market. Uzbekistan’s refining system includes the Bukhara and Fergana oil refineries, the Altyaryk unit of the Fergana refinery, and the modern Uzbekistan GTL complex, which produces synthetic liquid fuels from natural gas. The system produces gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, oils, naphtha, bitumen, and liquefied gas. From January through May 2026, Uzbekistan imported 642 million liters of gasoline worth $373 million. Import volume was 84% higher than in the same period last year, while import value rose by 85%. Imports now cover nearly half of domestic demand. Domestic gasoline production during the five-month period totaled 502,200 tons, equivalent to about 670 million to 678 million liters. Output has declined in recent years, falling from 1.33 million tons in 2023 to 1.2 million tons in 2025. The pressure has also reached the domestic fuel exchange. In late June, AI-92 gasoline prices in Uzbekistan hit a record high, with one ton selling for 13.919 million soums. Since the start of June, prices have risen by about 11% to 12%. The steepest increase came in the first 10 days of the month. Supply on the exchange then fell sharply, from up to 7,700 tons in the first half of June to 1,600 to 2,400 tons in the second half. The price rise has already begun to affect retail fuel costs, especially in Tashkent. One reason for the imbalance was Uzbekistan’s phased reduction of AI-80 gasoline under an environmental reform. In May, Odil Temirov, deputy chairman of Uzbekneftegaz’s board for refining, said the Bukhara Oil Refinery would begin switching from AI-80 to AI-91 and AI-92 in November and December, with a full phase-out of AI-80 from the start of 2025. He said AI-80 accounted for 85% of output at the refinery, while AI-92 made up the remaining 15%, and that this ratio would begin to change in November. Demand quickly shifted toward AI-92 and AI-95, but domestic production has not yet adapted to the new consumption pattern. Additional pressure came from events in Russia, which remains one of the key suppliers of gasoline, refinery feedstock, and aviation fuel. Reduced output at Russian refineries, caused by repairs and the aftermath of attacks on energy...

Census

Uzbekistan Census Reveals Bigger Population, Younger Pressure, and Planning Gaps

Uzbekistan's first full census since the Soviet era has found more than 810,000 people who were missing from the country's running estimates, shifting the baseline for schools, clinics, housing, labor forecasts, regional budgets, and agriculture. The preliminary results put Uzbekistan's population at 39,047,321 as of January 15, 2026. That was 810,617 more than the official estimate used at the start of the year. The gap is only 2.1% in percentage terms, but in practical terms it is the size of a major city. The count also shows a country that is larger, younger, and harder to plan for than regular estimates suggested. It gives the authorities a new map of where people live, how old they are, what homes they occupy, and how much farmland and livestock the economy really has. National Statistics Committee Chairman Behzod Hamrayev presented the first results in Tashkent on June 30. The count was part of a combined population and agricultural census held from January 15 to February 28 under a September 2025 decree. It was the first such count in independent Uzbekistan. The last nationwide census took place in 1989, when the country was still part of the Soviet Union. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Uzbekistan's permanent population was estimated at 38,236,704 on January 1, 2026. Two weeks later, the census found 39,047,321 people. Men numbered 19,766,166, or 50.6% of the population, and women 19,281,155, or 49.4%. The census also counted 56,900 foreign citizens who had lived in Uzbekistan for more than a year, mostly from India, Russia, and Kazakhstan. The largest corrections appear to be regional. Most of the 810,617-person difference was concentrated in Tashkent Region. Its population rose from an estimate of about 3.2 million to nearly 3.8 million, moving it from seventh to third among Uzbekistan's 14 administrative territories. Five regions, Namangan, Jizzakh, Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya, and Bukhara, came in below earlier estimates. The changes represent more than a statistical adjustment: a region that suddenly has about 600,000 more people on paper needs different calculations for roads, schools, clinics, water networks, public transport, land use, and housing. It also changes the way Tashkent Region is compared with the capital and other fast-growing parts of the country. The first demographic results show the pressure that is coming through the age structure. Children under five were the largest age group, at 4.6 million. There were 3.86 million people aged 5-9 and 3.41 million aged 10-14. The working-age population stood at 21.7 million, while 12.5 million people were below working age. Nearly 169,000 residents were 85 or older. Uzbekistan is not Central Asia's youngest country, but it is the region's largest young society. OSW put Central Asia's median age at 26.6, with Tajikistan the youngest at 22.1 and Kazakhstan the oldest at 29.6. By comparison, Eurostat said the European Union's median age reached 44.9 on January 1, 2025. Uzbekistan's challenge is therefore different from Europe's: it must educate, house, employ, and retain a large rising generation. The housing results also changed planning...

Podcast

Pannier and Hillard’s Spotlight on Central Asia: New Episode Out Now

As Managing Editor of The Times of Central Asia, I’m delighted that, in partnership with the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, from October 19, we are the home of the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast. Chaired by seasoned broadcasters Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL’s long-running Majlis podcast and Michael Hillard of The Red Line, each fortnightly instalment will take you on a deep dive into the latest news, developments, security issues, and social trends across an increasingly pivotal region. This week, the team covers a new election date being set in Kazakhstan, with the country's largest party staying off the ballot, rare protests in Turkmenistan over blackouts and economic frustration, the removal of one of Ashgabat's most important religious figures, renewed clashes along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, fuel shortages hitting much of Central Asia, and border swap deals that have seen thousands of people suddenly finding themselves in a new country. Before then turning to our main story this week, where the dramatic end to the Kamchybek Tashiev trials has delivered one of the biggest moments in Kyrgyz politics this year. Special guest: Medet Tulegenov (Director of the Silk Road Research Center).

Bilateral Relations

Uzbekistan and Georgia Deepen Ties as Tashkent Eyes Black Sea Routes

Uzbekistan and Georgia have elevated their relations to a strategic partnership as Tashkent seeks wider access to Black Sea ports and new routes linking Central Asia with European markets. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, Mirziyoyev traveled to Georgia on a July 2-3 state visit aimed at expanding cooperation in trade, transport, investment, and regional connectivity. The visit concluded with the signing of a Strategic Partnership Declaration and a series of agreements designed to deepen political and economic ties. Uzbekistan and Georgia established diplomatic relations on August 19, 1994. Their cooperation was formalized a year later with the signing of the Treaty on Friendship and Cooperation. While political dialogue has continued over the years, bilateral engagement has accelerated since 2022 through regular presidential meetings, visits by prime ministers, sessions of the intergovernmental commission, and consultations between the two countries’ foreign ministries. Last year, on March 5, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze visited Tashkent, where the two sides discussed expanding cooperation. The latest visit built on those discussions. According to the Uzbek presidential press service, the two leaders agreed to strengthen cooperation in politics, trade, investment, transport, tourism, and humanitarian exchanges. Bilateral trade reached $270 million in 2025, and has already exceeded $100 million since the beginning of this year. Both governments adopted the goal of increasing annual trade to $1 billion through a dedicated roadmap, reducing trade imbalances, and expanding exports through reciprocal industrial exhibitions. Transport and logistics featured prominently in the talks. The leaders agreed to expand the use of Georgia’s Poti and Batumi ports for Uzbek cargo and supported plans to establish a logistics hub that would include an industrial zone and a permanent showroom for Uzbek products. Mirziyoyev also proposed linking the future China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway with the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, a move that could create a new transport corridor connecting Central Asia with European markets. The two countries also agreed to establish a joint investment fund and launch new industrial projects in agriculture, electrical engineering, pharmaceuticals, renewable energy, food processing, construction materials, digital technologies, digital banking, and tourism. Uzbekistan will also open an embassy in Georgia, while educational and tourism forums are scheduled to take place later this year. Political analyst Mukhtor Nazirov believes the visit represents more than a routine diplomatic exchange. Speaking to local media, he argued that Georgia is increasingly becoming Uzbekistan’s gateway to Europe as Tashkent seeks to diversify its foreign trade routes. “Today, a country’s economic opportunities are largely determined by its transport corridors and access to foreign markets,” Nazirov said. “The signing of the Strategic Partnership Declaration is therefore an important event in Uzbekistan’s foreign policy.” Nazirov noted that the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, commonly known as the Middle Corridor, has become increasingly important for Uzbekistan. According to him, the route carried 12% of Uzbekistan’s foreign trade cargo in 2021, but that share has now risen to 28%. Official figures show that 1.2 million tons of cargo were transported along the corridor in 2025, while container train transit times to...

Fuel Supply

Kyrgyzstan Looks Beyond Russia as Fuel Squeeze Hits Central Asia

Kyrgyzstan has asked Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to help secure its fuel supplies as shortages inside Russia put new strain on Central Asia's fuel market. The move follows reduced Russian refining capacity after Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries, seasonal demand, and tighter export controls. “Due to the lack of adequate oil and gas production, we remain a country dependent on imports,” Deputy Energy Minister Nasipbek Kerimov told Birinchi Radio. “Kyrgyzstan annually consumes approximately 2 million tons of various types of fuel and lubricants, and almost 95% of this volume comes from Russia.” The dependence rests on long-standing trade terms; Russia supplies oil products to Kyrgyzstan duty-free under annual indicative balances within the Eurasian Economic Union. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk said in October 2025 that balances for 2026 had already been signed. The system has helped hold down prices, but it also leaves the market exposed when Russian refineries or export rules change. Kyrgyz officials have tried to calm consumers. The Energy Ministry said fuel reserves were sufficient, supplies were moving under existing contracts, and that “official requests have been sent” to relevant governments to support stable supplies. Local officials also pressed Kyrgyzneftegaz and the Junda refinery to increase domestic production and deliveries. The pressure is not equal across all fuel types. AI-95 and AI-98 gasoline have disappeared from some filling stations, while AI-92 reserves remain stronger. Oil Traders Association head Kanatbek Eshatov told Kaktus.media that AI-92 stocks would last 30 to 45 days, depending on the company. He said the AI-95 problem could be solved “in a couple of weeks, if refineries recover after the shelling.” Diesel remains available, and farmers had stocked up before harvest work began, he added. As of July 6, AI-95 remained unavailable at some Bishkek filling stations. Bishkek has also moved on prices, with the Cabinet introducing temporary price regulation under Resolution No. 369 of May 25, 2026. The system subsidizes importers and sellers until September 30 by compensating the gap between market prices and fixed benchmark import prices. In Bishkek, capped pump prices are 79.9 soms per liter for AI-92 gasoline, 88.9 soms for AI-95 and 93.9 soms for diesel, equal to about $3.46, $3.85 and $4.06 per U.S. gallon. The state is using subsidies to prevent a sharper jump at the pump. Kerimov said prices would stay unchanged while talks continued with suppliers. “We are currently offered fuel at various prices,” he said, and even if purchase prices rise, “there should be no shortage on the domestic market.” President Vladimir Putin acknowledged on June 28 that fuel shortages inside Russia had created queues at filling stations. “Problems for drivers and for businesses persist,” he said, adding that “the harvest depends on” keeping seasonal fuel schedules for farms. Russian officials said gasoline reserves stood at 1.7 million metric tons, but Moscow was considering a complete ban on diesel exports. Russia had already imposed temporary restrictions on gasoline exports, with exemptions for some intergovernmental arrangements. Reuters reported on June...