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U.S.-Kazakhstan Relations

Rubio and Kosherbayev Discuss CPC Ahead of Tokayev’s U.S. Visit

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a telephone conversation with Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev on 29 July. The discussion focused on the situation surrounding the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, energy cooperation, critical minerals, trade and investment ties, and current international issues. According to the U.S. Department of State, Rubio and Kosherbayev discussed the importance of energy security, including the “reliable and uninterrupted” export of Kazakhstan-origin oil through the CPC system. Rubio also thanked Kazakhstan for supporting President Donald Trump’s peace initiatives and expressed interest in deepening bilateral economic cooperation. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the two ministers discussed in detail the situation surrounding the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, cooperation in the energy, transport and logistics sectors, supplies of critical minerals, efforts to attract U.S. investment, and coordination in international organisations. The ministry said the conversation also covered preparations for President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s forthcoming visit to the United States for the G20 summit. The telephone call took place shortly after Kazakhstan resumed crude oil exports through the CPC system. The pipeline carries the vast majority of crude exports from the Tengiz oilfield, whose largest shareholders include the U.S. companies Chevron and ExxonMobil. Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry said the two ministers reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining regular political dialogue. The conversation followed President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s meeting with U.S. Senator Steve Daines on 8 July, when the two sides discussed expanding trade and economic cooperation, attracting investment and strengthening cooperation in the energy sector. On 28 July, The Times of Central Asia reported that Kazakhstan had resumed oil exports through the CPC system after a week-long disruption at the consortium’s Black Sea marine terminal near Novorossiysk. The interruption more than halved oil production at Tengiz and again highlighted Kazakhstan’s dependence on its principal oil export route.

Gulnara Karimova

Swiss Court Fines Lombard Odier $3.7 Million in Karimova Money-Laundering Case

Switzerland’s Federal Criminal Court has fined Geneva-based private bank Lombard Odier 3 million Swiss francs, or about $3.68 million, after finding that it failed to take adequate organizational measures to prevent money laundering in a case linked to Gulnara Karimova, the eldest daughter of Uzbekistan’s late President Islam Karimov. The court also dismissed criminal proceedings against Karimova without ruling on the allegations against her. The ruling was delivered on July 27 in Bellinzona, following a trial that began in April. Swiss prosecutors had accused Karimova of accepting bribes and leading a criminal organization known as “The Office,” which allegedly channeled hundreds of millions of dollars through Swiss bank accounts between 2005 and 2013. Lombard Odier and one of its former account managers were accused of helping conceal assets derived from the group’s activities. The former employee was found guilty of aggravated money laundering. The court concluded that the bank had failed to take “all reasonable and necessary organizational measures” to prevent the offense. The former account manager, identified only as “C.,” received a fully suspended 24-month prison sentence. The court also ordered the confiscation in Switzerland of more than 400 million Swiss francs in assets originating from the money-laundering offense or controlled by “The Office.” In a statement, Lombard Odier said the case began after it voluntarily reported suspicious transactions to the Swiss authorities in 2012. It maintained that robust anti-money-laundering controls were in place and said it would appeal. The first-instance judgment is not final. The court dismissed the proceedings against Karimova on procedural grounds. The judges concluded that there was no realistic prospect of her release from prison in Uzbekistan or extradition to Switzerland before the limitation period expired. The court did not rule on the allegations against her. Proceedings were also dismissed against another defendant, identified only as “B.,” who lives in Russia and could not travel to Switzerland through no fault of his own. The sentences imposed on Lombard Odier and its former employee were reduced because of the time elapsed since the offenses in 2011 and 2012. Charges covering events before July 27, 2011, were dismissed as time-barred. Karimova, now 54, has consistently denied wrongdoing. She has been imprisoned in Uzbekistan since March 2019, when she was moved from house arrest after the authorities said she had breached its conditions. She is serving a 13-year sentence for offenses including organizing a criminal group, extortion, and embezzlement. The Swiss investigation began in 2012 and concerns conduct dating back more than two decades. In May 2025, the Federal Criminal Court joined the proceedings against Karimova and Lombard Odier. The wider international investigation has involved assets across several jurisdictions. Assets associated with Karimova in Switzerland, France, and the United States have previously been estimated at nearly $1.4 billion. The case has also led to efforts to return confiscated assets to Uzbekistan. In February 2025, Uzbekistan and Switzerland signed an agreement covering approximately $182 million confiscated by the Swiss authorities. The funds are to be transferred through the Uzbekistan...

E-Commerce

Wildberries Kazakhstan Sellers Count Losses After Ukraine Strikes

Over the past month, Ukrainian forces have carried out a series of strikes on the facilities of Russia's largest online marketplace, Wildberries. As with previous attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure, including that of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), the consequences are again being felt by citizens and businesses in neighboring countries, highlighting the extent to which the war's economic effects now extend far beyond the battlefield. Since July 18, Ukrainian strikes have hit Wildberries logistics facilities in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Crimea, as well as in Tver and Tambov Oblasts. According to the Russian business daily Kommersant, the attacks damaged logistics facilities representing more than 10% of Wildberries’ total warehouse floor space, with a combined area exceeding 550,000 square meters. Alongside Wildberries, another major Russian marketplace, Ozon, also operates in Kazakhstan. Its logistics network has so far not been affected by similar attacks. Together, the two companies account for more than 85% of Kazakhstan’s cross-border online marketplace segment, according to data presented in June by Mazhilis deputy Aituar Koshmambetov during parliamentary discussions on the development of e-commerce. E-commerce has become one of Kazakhstan’s fastest-growing sectors, expanding roughly fivefold since 2020. The market was valued at $6.7 billion in 2025, and the government aims to increase that figure to $19.5 billion by 2029. Against that backdrop, Kazakh sellers were always likely to be affected sooner or later. On Tuesday, Kazakhstan’s National Chamber of Entrepreneurs, Atameken, said it had begun collecting information on Kazakh businesses affected by the attacks on Wildberries facilities in Russia. According to preliminary estimates by the Ecommerce-KZ Association, more than 100 member companies suffered losses as a result of fires at the marketplace’s logistics centers. Their combined losses exceed $2.1 million. Following an request from Atameken to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration, the ministry has approached Russian authorities and the Wildberries for further information. For neighboring Kyrgyzstan, the situation surrounding Wildberries has proved even more painful. Compensation for lost goods is now being discussed at the level of the country’s economy minister, who is negotiating with the marketplace’s management. Much of Kyrgyzstan’s garment industry and trading sector now depend on Wildberries. According to the country’s association of garment manufacturers, individual producers have suffered losses ranging from 1 million to 100 million Kyrgyz soms, or approximately $11,400 to $1.14 million. While businesses in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan are counting their losses, Wildberries itself appears to be reconsidering its logistics strategy. According to a report in Kommersant, the company has begun searching for vacant warehouse space in Kazakhstan and is prepared to lease virtually all of the country’s available modern warehouse capacity. According to NF Group, only 5.8% of Kazakhstan's modern warehouse space was vacant at the end of 2025. Stanislav Akhmedzyanov, managing partner at IBC Global, said the Kazakh market has no single warehouse facility of 100,000 square meters, which is reportedly the amount of space Wildberries requires. As of the end of June 2026, only 130,000 square meters of warehouse space remained available across the country, scattered...

Caspian Sea

As Two Wars Reach the Caspian, Central Asia’s Middle Corridor Holds

On July 25, two wars met in waters that Central Asian governments had tried to keep apart. Ukraine reported successful long-range strikes in the Caspian Sea. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the targets included vessels involved in carrying military cargo from Iran and a warship. Tehran said an Iranian commercial vessel had been struck, killing one sailor and injuring another, and accused Kyiv of trying to widen the war. It remains unclear whether the vessel identified by Iran was among the targets described by Zelenskyy. Diplomacy produced a limited off-ramp. On July 28, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha told his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araqchi, that the strike on the Iranian ship was unintended. Both governments said they wanted to avoid further escalation. The call reduced the immediate risk of retaliation, but it did not remove the new danger. The Caspian is now one of the places where Russia’s war against Ukraine and the war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States intersect. Central Asia is exposed through the infrastructure and trade routes linking them. A “Sea of Peace” Under Pressure Turkmenistan responded to the incident with unusually direct language. Its Foreign Ministry called attacks on vessels in the Caspian “inadmissible” and described the waterway as a “sea of peace, harmony and good-neighborliness.” Ashgabat did not name Ukraine or endorse Iran’s account. Its restraint was characteristic, but the public criticism was unusual. Turkmenistan’s permanent neutrality normally produces guarded statements during external conflicts. The intervention showed that Ashgabat viewed the attack as a challenge to the regional order. Turkmenistan faces Iran across a 1,148-kilometer land border and the southern Caspian. Turkmenbashi port is also central to its plans for a larger role in Eurasian trade. The principle is set out in the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, signed in Aktau in 2018. Its text calls for the peaceful use of the sea, prohibits the use or threat of force, and bars armed forces belonging to non-Caspian states. The convention has not entered into force because Iran has not ratified it. Its provisions were designed to govern relations among the five littoral states. They do not address a long-range strike carried out by a non-littoral state. But modern drones can cross distances that once provided strategic shelter. A landlocked sea can no longer be assumed to sit beyond the reach of surrounding wars. The Iran-Russia Link Ukraine has clear military reasons to look toward the Caspian. Iran has supplied Russia with drone technology used against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The sea also provides a direct commercial route between Iranian ports and Russia’s Volga region. Kyiv now treats vessels on that route carrying military cargo as part of Russia’s military logistics. Iran described the vessel struck on July 25 as civilian. The dispute over the ship’s cargo is central because commercial and military supply chains can overlap. A vessel may be civilian by flag and registration while carrying goods that Ukraine considers part of Russia’s war effort. That uncertainty reaches beyond...

Global Business Services

GBSF 2026 Highlights Uzbekistan’s Push for Global Business Services and AI

More than 450 participants from business and government, representing over 45 countries, gathered in Tashkent on July 24–25 for the Global Business Services Forum 2026. The event centered on Uzbekistan’s effort to become a regional center for global business services and business process outsourcing (BPO), with artificial intelligence (AI) also a major focus. Organizers described it as Central Asia’s largest international forum devoted to global business services and the digital economy. The forum follows May’s Global Tech Weekend in Tashkent, which brought more than 2,500 technology and investment professionals to the capital. Opening the forum, Uzbekistan’s Minister of Digital Technologies Sherzod Shermatov said recent reforms had improved conditions for international technology companies considering investment or expansion in the country. Shermatov said companies could draw on qualified specialists and modern digital infrastructure while reaching a fast-growing regional market. He also invited international firms to invest and develop long-term partnerships. Azamat Karamatov, CEO of IT Park Uzbekistan, said the organization now has more than 3,800 resident companies, including over 1,000 international businesses. Exports of technology services have surpassed $1 billion. He said IT Park gives foreign companies a route into Uzbekistan’s technology sector while helping develop local talent. Sessions examined AI and talent development. Other discussions covered international investment and outsourcing. Speakers also outlined tax incentives and support available to foreign companies entering the Uzbek market. The Soft Landing program and Zero Risk initiative are among the available schemes. Key Account Management services provide additional assistance. One speaker was Arseny Kucheryuk, an expert at Antal Uzbekistan, part of the British recruitment company Antal International. He drew on the firm’s recruitment work and salary surveys to describe changes in the labor market. Kucheryuk, who moved to Uzbekistan nearly five years ago, said employers once struggled to find highly qualified candidates. The market has since become more balanced, although strong candidates can still receive several offers within weeks. He said companies seeking experienced professionals often need to offer salaries well above candidates’ current income. Antal research found that more than 60% of candidates expect an increase of at least 20% when changing jobs. Kucheryuk added that pay alone does not determine retention. Career prospects and management quality also influence whether skilled staff remain with an employer. He said workplace culture is especially important when addressing religion or family. Speaking to The Times of Central Asia after his presentation, Kucheryuk said foreign investment was creating career opportunities in Tashkent and elsewhere in Uzbekistan. He attributed Uzbekistan’s appeal to cooperation between the government and private sector, which he said helps international companies enter the market and supports local businesses. Kucheryuk advised foreign investors to understand local business culture before entering the market. Although companies may bring senior executives from abroad, he said operational roles requiring knowledge of local law and business practice should generally be filled in Uzbekistan. Iyad Hafez, CEO and managing partner of Staff Arabia, said his first visit to Uzbekistan exceeded expectations. “I’m positively surprised,” he told The Times of Central Asia. “Very...

U.S. Tariffs

U.S. Imposes 12.5% Tariff on Kazakhstan Over Third-Country Import Controls

Kazakhstan is the only Central Asian economy included in a new U.S. tariff action covering 60 trading partners. An additional tariff of 12.5% has been imposed on a range of Kazakh goods, excluding products listed in the annexes to the final decision. The rate applies to goods entered for consumption in the United States from July 24, 2026. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration said about 95% of the country’s exports to the United States would remain outside the measure because of the exemptions. It also said the new tariff replaces an expired temporary 10% surcharge and will not be added to it. Kazakhstan already prohibits forced labor in domestic employment under Article 7 of its Labor Code. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) did not allege that Kazakh exporters use forced labor. Its finding concerned a separate gap: Kazakhstan lacks a customs prohibition capable of excluding foreign goods produced wholly or partly with forced labor. The investigation was launched in March under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a mechanism that allows Washington to respond to foreign practices it considers discriminatory or restrictive to U.S. commerce. In June, USTR concluded that the policies of all 60 economies under review warranted action. The final decision followed more than 1,600 written comments and testimony from over 100 witnesses. Most of the economies were divided into two rate groups, while the European Union, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Switzerland received special treatment linked to existing most-favored-nation tariffs. This was not a Kazakhstan-specific finding. USTR identified the same deficiency in 53 other economies, including Australia, Japan, Norway, Singapore, and South Korea. Together, the 60 economies under investigation accounted for 99.4% of U.S. imports. A 10% tariff was imposed on countries that had introduced at least a partial ban on imports associated with forced labor or made corresponding commitments to Washington. Kazakhstan was placed in the 12.5% category alongside Australia, Israel, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, and several other U.S. trading partners, as well as China and Russia. The immediate cost to Kazakhstan will depend largely on the scope of the exemptions. Washington exempted raw materials where tariffs could leave the U.S. market without sufficient domestic supply, products whose higher cost could cause wider economic disruption, and goods that the United States cannot produce in sufficient quantities or obtain elsewhere. The 12.5% rate therefore does not mean that all Kazakh exports will become more expensive in the American market. The structure of bilateral trade further limits the likely damage. Kazakhstan’s exports to the United States are concentrated in commodities, particularly oil, uranium, metals, and semi-processed materials. Many serve U.S. energy and industrial needs. The Kazakh government’s estimate that about 95% of exports remain exempt indicates that the largest trade flows should avoid the additional tariff, although the U.S. notice does not provide a Kazakhstan-specific calculation. According to U.S. figures, goods trade between the two countries reached $5 billion in 2025. U.S. imports from Kazakhstan rose by 73%...