Business & Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Gold

Uzbekistan Gold Reserves Rise to 446 Tons Despite Price Drop

Uzbekistan's gold reserves increased by about 7 metric tons in September, bringing its total holdings to approximately 446 tons, according to figures published by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan. The increase followed purchases of 8 tons in August, bringing Uzbekistan's purchases since the beginning of the year to nearly 50 tons by the end of that month. According to the World Gold Council, Uzbekistan was the third-largest central bank buyer of gold during this period, behind Poland and China. Physical gold holdings increased from 14.11 million to 14.34 million troy ounces in September. However, the value of Uzbekistan's international reserves fell by $5.54 billion, or 7.69%, to $66.58 billion as of October 1. The value of its gold holdings alone declined by $4.83 billion to $60.08 billion. The foreign currency component of the reserves also decreased by $702.8 million, or 10.59%, to $5.92 billion in September. Gold now accounts for approximately 90% of Uzbekistan's international reserves. The decline in the value of the reserves was largely due to falling global gold prices, which dropped by approximately 10% from a late-August high of $4,660 per troy ounce to around $4,176 at the end of September. The World Gold Council attributed the decline to a stronger U.S. dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and investors reducing their positions in gold futures. Higher bond yields make gold less attractive because, unlike bonds, it pays no interest.

Regional Trade

Central Asia and Azerbaijan Discuss Trade Expansion at Turkmenistan Summit

The leaders of Central Asia and Azerbaijan met in Turkmenistan on October 8, with expanding trade between their countries high on the agenda. Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called for trade among the six countries to rise to at least $20 billion, up from approximately $13 billion in 2025. The eighth Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia and Azerbaijan was held in the resort of Avaza, with Azerbaijan participating as a full member of the grouping for the first time. According to Tokayev, trade between the six countries accounted for just 8% of their combined trade turnover last year. He proposed that governments develop a joint action plan to increase that share. Other leaders put forward proposals for closer economic ties. Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev called for greater cooperation in manufacturing and a Central Asia-Azerbaijan Business Forum in 2027, while Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov proposed creating a shared e-commerce platform to make regional products more accessible. One problem is the insufficient integration of national markets. Even where countries share a border, trade is hampered by logistical constraints and differences in business operating conditions. Tokayev proposed bringing existing and planned cross-border trade and logistics complexes and industrial centers into a single network. The idea is to enable businesses from different countries to sell finished products to one another and produce them jointly. However, Kazakhstan's major transport projects are not designed solely for its neighbors. Astana is investing in railways and highways to increase freight transit between China, Central Asia, and Europe. The projects include the Moyynty–Kyzylzhar, Darbaza–Maktaaral, and Bakhty–Ayagoz railway lines, as well as the Aral–Caspian highway project. The Middle Corridor holds a particularly important place in these plans, running from China through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to Europe. It allows freight to bypass Russian territory and is viewed as an alternative to traditional northern routes. Kazakhstan is now proposing to explore linking the Middle Corridor with the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a transport project through Armenia intended to connect mainland Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan. Plans for the route were outlined during talks in Washington in August 2025, and Armenia and the United States signed a framework agreement in June 2026. The route is to remain under Armenian sovereignty and jurisdiction. Astana has already established a technical group to assess its potential participation in TRIPP. For now, Tokayev is proposing that the integration of the two transport initiatives be discussed only at the expert level. At the Avaza summit, Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov emphasized the importance of developing North–South transport corridors alongside East–West routes. Turkmenistan also supports the eastern branch of the International North–South Transport Corridor, which connects Russia with Iran through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. However, an increase in freight traffic through Central Asia does not in itself mean that trade among its countries will grow. For that to happen, local producers need access to neighboring markets. The summit also addressed cooperation over shared water resources, with Tokayev proposing a regional framework...

Bilateral Trade

West2West: Kazakhstan Adds a Regional Dimension to Trade with Afghanistan

In late September, a Kazakhstani official and business delegation led by Yerkin Tukumov, the Special Representative of the President of Kazakhstan for Afghanistan, visited Herat. The delegation included trade officials, representatives of the Mangystau and West Kazakhstan regions, and businesses. Officials called the new approach West2West, meaning cooperation between Kazakhstan's western regions and western Afghanistan. Kazakhstan and Afghanistan have held several business forums and exhibitions in recent years. However, the choice of Herat and the attempt to shift some cooperation from the intergovernmental to the interregional level make this initiative different. Since 2021, Kazakhstan’s economic dialogue with Afghanistan has developed mainly from the top down. The two governments set ambitious trade targets and sought to turn political engagement into commercial deals. The results looked impressive on paper. In October 2024, the two countries adopted a road map to raise mutual trade to $3 billion. In April 2025, documents worth $140 million were signed in Kabul, followed by 15 documents worth $303 million in Shymkent that October. Actual trade, however, grew much more slowly. In 2024, it totaled $545.2 million, while in 2025 it slipped slightly to $541.6 million. The $3 billion target remains more of a strategic benchmark than a near-term goal. According to official data from Kazakhstan, trade reached $581.1 million in January-July 2026, exceeding the total for the entire previous year. Kazakhstan’s exports accounted for $572.9 million, while imports from Afghanistan were just $8.2 million. Trade is therefore growing rapidly, but remains overwhelmingly one-sided. West2West is partly an attempt to broaden that relationship. Herat's Strategic Location Herat is one of Afghanistan’s main industrial and commercial centers, situated near several important transport routes. To the north is Torghundi, a rail border crossing with Turkmenistan. To the west runs the Khaf-Herat railway, which connects Afghanistan to Iran’s railway system. Herat could eventually become part of longer routes toward Kandahar and Pakistan, although much of the necessary infrastructure remains at the planning stage. During the September visit, officials opened a 43-kilometer section of the Khaf-Herat railway. Afghan sources estimate its cost at approximately $58 million. The section was built with the involvement of Kazakhstani company Integra Construction KZ. In August 2026, freight transported along the Khaf-Herat line totaled approximately 137,700 metric tons. Discussions have also focused on increasing its monthly capacity to 150,000 metric tons. Together with Uzbekistan and the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan has begun working on the Central Asia–South Asia railway project, which envisages a trans-Afghan connection to Pakistan’s ports. So far, the parties have agreed to conduct technical and economic studies, and no final route has been approved. The route through Turkmenistan is developing separately. Ashgabat views Torghundi-Herat as a joint project with Afghanistan linked to the expansion of the Serhetabat-Torghundi crossing and other infrastructure in western Afghanistan. Kazakhstan’s interest in Herat predates West2West. In 2023, Astana announced plans to establish a Kazakhstan Trade House in Afghanistan, with its main office in Herat. It opened in May 2024. Arman Yessentayev, its head, described Herat in 2023 as a...

Tourism Development

Uzbekistan Tourism Plan Targets Caves and a Salt Mine

Uzbekistan has approved a plan to develop nine caves and a salt mine for tourism. The program announced by the Tourism Committee on October 5 covers development work through 2028 at sites in Jizzakh, Samarkand, Surkhandarya, and Kashkadarya. Alongside work on visitor routes, regional authorities are to help nearby residents establish family guesthouses, while local guides will be able to take specialist training courses. Travel and tourism contributed $8.3 billion to Uzbekistan’s economy in 2025, equivalent to 6% of GDP, according to World Travel & Tourism Council estimates. Annual forums for domestic and foreign investors are planned from 2027 to attract private funding. Boybuloq in southern Surkhandarya, one of the selected caves, has deep shafts and water-filled passages that make exploration technically demanding. Under the September 30 government resolution, the Ministry of Emergency Situations has three months to draft rules for visits, and a certification system for guides and instructors is due in June 2027. Among the other sites is Teshiktosh in the same region, where the discovery of a Neanderthal child’s remains in 1938 established the cave’s archaeological importance. Construction at sites with cultural heritage status will require approval from the Cultural Heritage Agency, while work in protected natural areas must be cleared by environmental authorities. Khojaikon, the selected salt mine in Sherabad district, has salt-coated galleries leading to an observation deck overlooking the Surkhandarya mountains. The roadmap sets April 2027 as the deadline for approving tourist routes. The completed visitor infrastructure is scheduled to enter service in January 2029.

Public Debt

Kyrgyzstan Public Debt Exceeds $10 Billion as Repayment Costs Rise

Kyrgyzstan’s public debt reached $10.16 billion by the end of July 2026, with the government expecting to spend about $1.83 billion servicing its external debt between 2027 and 2029. According to Ministry of Finance figures, external debt stood at $5.19 billion as of July 31, while domestic debt totaled $4.96 billion. External borrowing consists mainly of loans from foreign governments and international financial institutions, while domestic debt is raised primarily through government bonds. Total debt was equivalent to about 38% of the government’s projected gross domestic product (GDP) for 2026. At the end of 2025, the debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 39.5%, up from 36.2% a year earlier. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the ratio to reach 41.4% by the end of 2026. The country’s debt burden is relatively high compared with those of its Central Asian neighbors. IMF figures put Kazakhstan’s public debt at 25.2% of GDP in 2025, while the equivalent figures were 28.6% for Uzbekistan and a projected 24.7% for Tajikistan. For comparison, United States government debt stood at 123.9% of GDP in 2025. China remains Kyrgyzstan’s largest foreign creditor. According to Deputy Finance Minister Umutjan Amanbaev, Bishkek owes Beijing about $1.4 billion, equivalent to 27% of its external debt. Much of the remainder is owed to international development banks and financial institutions. Most external loans were obtained on concessional terms, generally carrying low interest rates and long repayment periods. However, the country has also begun taking on more expensive commercial debt. In May 2025, the government issued its first sovereign Eurobonds, raising $700 million through five-year notes carrying an annual interest rate of 7.75%. The bonds, placed on the London Stock Exchange, now account for about 13.5% of external debt. They are due to mature in 2030, when external debt repayments are projected to reach about $1.1 billion, based on the repayment schedule for existing obligations. The draft budget for 2027–2029, published by the Ministry of Finance, allocates about $606 million to external debt servicing in 2027, $600 million in 2028, and $621 million in 2029. These payments cover principal and interest on existing debt. More than 80% are denominated in U.S. dollars, so a weaker som could increase the budget cost of meeting the same obligations. The government also expects to spend 82.2 billion soms servicing domestic debt. Public debt remains below the government’s benchmark of 70% of GDP. The Ministry of Finance expects debt sustainability to be maintained over the medium term, although exchange-rate fluctuations and economic shocks remain significant risks. The IMF also considers the debt sustainable, while assessing its risk of debt distress as moderate. However, it has warned that growing repayment costs, particularly on domestic and non-concessional borrowing, could place increasing pressure on public finances.

Declaration AI

Kazakhstan Signs Declaration on Human Oversight of AI at Work

Kazakhstan's government, employers, and trade unions signed a declaration on October 7 calling for human oversight of artificial intelligence in the workplace. The declaration was adopted in Astana at the international forum “Digital Labor and Artificial Intelligence.” It states that decisions affecting workers’ rights and interests should involve a human decision-maker rather than be left entirely to AI. Federation of Trade Unions chairman Satybaldy Dauletalin said employers should remain accountable for decisions made using algorithms. Workers should be able to challenge those decisions and request human review, he said. The federation said the signatories agreed to establish a national forum for cooperation on digital labor and AI. Working groups and a monitoring system would support implementation. Some protections already exist under Kazakh law. The country's AI legislation, which took effect in January 2026, establishes requirements for transparency and human autonomy in AI systems. The Digital Code, effective since July, also gives people the right, under certain conditions, to seek explanations of fully automated decisions and request human review when those decisions affect their rights. The European Union's 2024 Platform Work Directive sets specific requirements for algorithmic management on digital labor platforms. It requires human oversight of automated systems, including human decisions on the dismissal or suspension of workers. Member states have until December 2026 to implement the directive. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is already using AI in its public employment services. In the Mangystau and Pavlodar regions, an automated job-matching system sent approximately 59,000 personalized vacancy notifications over two months. Deputy Labor Minister Bakhtiyar Zhazykpayev said about 3,000 people had found employment. Those figures alone do not establish how many found work directly because of the system. The federation’s published account does not explain whether the declaration creates additional enforceable obligations for employers or a new complaints procedure for workers.