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Oil Industry

Kazakhstan and China Launch Project to Double Capacity of Shymkent Oil Refinery

Kazakhstan and China have agreed on the basic parameters of a major expansion project at the Shymkent oil refinery, which will double its processing capacity from over 6 million to 12 million tons of oil per year. According to national oil company KazMunayGas, the Shymkent refinery became Kazakhstan’s leading facility in 2025 in terms of processing volume, handling 6.23 million tons of oil. By comparison, the Pavlodar Petrochemical Plant processed 5.76 million tons, and the Atyrau Oil Refinery 5.47 million tons. Shymkent also topped production output, delivering over 2.28 million tons of gasoline and more than 2.1 million tons of diesel fuel. The refinery is jointly owned by KazMunayGas JSC and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). The two partners plan to expand the plant’s production capacity by constructing new processing infrastructure. A delegation from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy, led by Daulet Arykbayev, Director of the Oil Transportation and Refining Department, participated in a strategic meeting in Qingdao, China, to prepare a feasibility study for the expansion. Following the meeting, both sides approved the project’s basic framework. A central decision was the adoption of the “6+6” configuration: two processing lines, each with a 6-million-ton annual capacity, fully integrated into the refinery’s existing operations. Officials stressed the importance of meeting project deadlines, with the core feasibility work scheduled for completion by 2032 under the framework agreement. The Ministry of Energy also noted that, under Kazakhstan’s broader refinery modernization program, the goal is to increase total national processing capacity from 18 million to 39 million tons of oil per year. Simultaneously, the government is seeking investors for the construction of a new refinery with an annual capacity of up to 10 million tons. The Times of Central Asia previously reported on state plans to attract foreign investment for a proposed fourth major refinery. Government estimates suggest that expanding the three existing refineries to 39 million tons will require investments of $15-19 billion. In March 2025, the Agency for the Protection and Development of Competition recommended partial privatization of the Pavlodar and Atyrau plants to boost efficiency and attract private capital. However, in December, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov stated that KazMunayGas currently has no plans to privatize these assets.

Copper

Kazakhstan Reshapes Copper Export Flows Amid Rising Global Demand

As global demand for copper continues to increase, driven by energy transition and the digital economy, Kazakhstan, a major global producer, is not only increasing its output but also significantly reshaping its export geography. Analysts at Energyprom.kz have examined the current shifts in the sector and the evolving landscape of Kazakhstan’s copper exports. With its substantial reserves and a developed metallurgy sector, Kazakhstan is well positioned to benefit from this strategic opportunity. According to preliminary data from the National Statistics Bureau, the country produced 471,000 tons of refined copper in 2025, an increase of 7,100 tons, or 1.5%, from 2024’s 463,900 tons. This suggests a gradual stabilization of the industry following previous fluctuations. Production trends over recent years have been inconsistent. In 2018, Kazakhstan produced 442,600 tons of refined copper. Output rose 7.7% to 476,500 tons in 2019 and grew modestly in 2020 to 482,900 tons (+1.3%). However, production dropped sharply in 2021 to 403,300 tons, a decline of 16.5%, due to major repairs and upgrades at key processing facilities, including a furnace overhaul at the Balkhash Copper Smelter operated by Kazakhmys Smelting LLP, and disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. By 2024, output had rebounded to 474,900 tons, up 17.8% from the 2021 low, signaling the industry’s return to pre-crisis levels. Despite global demand, Kazakhstan’s total exports of refined copper declined in 2025. However, the structure of those exports shifted notably. Deliveries to Turkey rose from 142,200 to 164,000 tons, an increase of 21,800 tons, or 15.3%. Turkey’s share of Kazakhstan’s copper exports rose from 32.5% to 40.9%, making it the country’s second-largest export destination. Combined, China and Turkey accounted for about 90% of Kazakhstan’s copper exports from January to November 2025, indicating a still high level of market concentration. However, exports to other countries grew 4.4 times from 9,200 tons to 40,100 tons, raising their share from 2.1% to 10%. This points to early signs of diversification. These shifts in Kazakhstan’s export strategy coincide with major developments in global demand. According to a forecast by S&P Global, global copper consumption is projected to grow from 27.3 million tons in 2024 to 42.3 million tons by 2040, an increase of 15 million tons, or approximately 55%. The primary drivers include electric vehicles, renewable energy development, power grid upgrades, artificial intelligence, data centers, and rising defense sector needs. By 2040, copper use in the energy transition sector is expected to more than double from 7.6 million tons in 2024 to 15.6 million tons. Copper demand for AI and data centers is forecast to rise from 1 million to 2.5 million tons. Even traditional sectors like construction and mechanical engineering will grow, projected to increase from 17.8 million to 23.3 million tons. China will remain the world’s largest consumer of refined copper. According to Fitch Solutions, Chinese demand is expected to rise from 15.9 million tons in 2023 to 18.9 million tons by 2028, an increase of 19%, or more than 3 million tons. This would allow China to maintain a...

B5+1

B5+1 in Bishkek: Business at the Center of Regional Integration Strategy

A two-day B5+1 business forum is underway in Bishkek, bringing together government officials from Central Asian countries, regional business leaders, and a U.S. delegation. Once viewed as a business extension of the C5+1 diplomatic dialogue, participants now describe the format as evolving into an independent and pragmatic economic platform. The forum is organized by the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), in cooperation with the Cabinet of Ministers of Kyrgyzstan, under the IBECA program supported by the U.S. Department of State. A defining feature of this year’s forum is the size and prominence of the U.S. business delegation. More than 50 representatives from major corporations, which, according to official documents, include Boeing, GE Healthcare, Nasdaq, Abbott, Pfizer, Honeywell, Coca-Cola Company, Mastercard, FedEx, Apple, Wabtec, and Franklin Templeton, have convened in Bishkek. Discussions are structured around panel sessions and working groups focusing on key sectors: transport and logistics, agriculture, e-commerce, information technology, and critical mineral extraction. U.S. Special Envoy for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor stated he has arrived in Bishkek with a “clear message from Donald Trump.” He emphasized that Central Asia is among the top foreign policy priorities of the current U.S. administration. At a press conference, Gor underlined a strategic shift away from traditional intergovernmental agreements toward support for private enterprise and the development of commercially viable projects. “The U.S. government is ready to expand its tools for supporting investment cooperation, and today's discussion is only the first step toward further joint development,” he said. Focus on Regional Connectivity Transport infrastructure and regional connectivity were major themes on the opening day of the forum. Gor highlighted the U.S.-backed TRIPP initiative, which aims to establish a transport corridor through the South Caucasus linking Central Asia to Western markets. He argued that expanding alternative trade routes would support deeper economic integration within the region and boost its position in global trade networks. Forum participants echoed this sentiment, stressing that major international investors are increasingly evaluating Central Asia not as isolated national markets but as a single economic space. Representatives from Central Asian governments noted that the region’s aggregated potential, in logistics, natural resources, and consumer demand, is what attracts large multinationals. Kazakhstan’s Minister of Industry, Yersayin Nagaspayev, said over 600 American companies are currently operating in Kazakhstan, with many managing regional operations from within the country. “Our shared goal is to position Central Asia as a reliable, competitive, and attractive region for long-term business cooperation,” he stated. Redefining the Role of Business in Governance Kyrgyzstan’s Minister of Economy, Bakyt Sydykov, emphasized that the B5+1 platform is reshaping the nature of business-state interaction. “Today, business is not just a participant in the process, but a full-fledged co-author of economic reforms,” he said. He noted that the working groups had proposed recommendations in line with Kyrgyzstan’s ongoing reform agenda. These include reducing administrative barriers, digitizing public services, and improving access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises. Toward a New Geopolitical Self-Image The forum in Bishkek also reflected a broader regional...

Nuclear Power Plant

Kazakhstan Has Selected a Site for Its Second Nuclear Power Plant

The Kazakh government has approved the location for its second nuclear power plant. According to an official decree, the facility will be constructed in the Zhambyl district of the Almaty region, adjacent to the site selected for the country's first nuclear plant. The Ministry of Justice published Government Resolution No. 40, dated January 26, 2026, titled On the Construction and Construction Site of the Nuclear Facility “Second Nuclear Power Plant”, in the Adilet system of regulatory legal acts. The resolution came into effect on the day of its signing. Nuclear projects typically proceed through feasibility studies, environmental review, and financing arrangements, and timelines can shift as plans move from preliminary approval to full construction. Earlier reports indicated that contracts for the construction of Kazakhstan’s second and third nuclear plants were awarded to China’s CNNC, with the first plant being developed by the Russian state corporation Rosatom. Its site is located in the village of Ulken, also in Zhambyl district, on the shore of Lake Balkhash, approximately 400 km northwest of Almaty. Thus, Kazakhstan’s first two nuclear power facilities will be concentrated in the country’s southern region. The design capacity of the first plant is 2.4 GW, comprising two VVER-1200 reactors, each with a capacity of 1.2 GW. Rosatom has already begun preparatory work on the site. The foundation is scheduled to be poured in 2029, with commissioning planned for 2035. Previously, Kurchatov in the Abai region, near the former Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, was considered as a possible location for one of the three planned plants. This site was reviewed with International Atomic Energy Agency participation. However, the current government decision confirms a focus on the Almaty region. The Kazakh authorities view nuclear energy as a strategic solution to the country’s growing electricity shortage. At the same time, in January, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov stated that Kazakhstan would be able to fully meet domestic energy demand by the end of the first quarter of 2027, without nuclear power, and by 2029, the country is expected to reach a surplus and begin electricity exports.

Waste Recycling

Italian Firm Explores Waste Recycling Projects in Kyrgyzstan

On February 2, the National Investment Agency under the President of the Kyrgyz Republic hosted representatives from Italian company TRITOR S.R.L., a firm known for its environmentally friendly waste recycling technologies, to discuss potential pilot projects in Kyrgyzstan. The meeting brought together officials from Kyrgyz municipal governments and the Ministry of Health to explore investment opportunities focused on processing municipal solid waste and medical waste. Participants also discussed candidate locations for future recycling facilities. Following the talks, the parties signed a memorandum of cooperation outlining several pilot initiatives. These include the processing of up to 200 tons of unsorted household waste per day, the supply of alternative environmentally friendly fuels to local cement plants, the introduction of modern technologies for landfill reclamation and cleanup, and the development of medical waste recycling systems in public healthcare institutions. Ravshanbek Sabirov, head of the National Investment Agency, underscored the importance of such initiatives for the country. “The problem of waste recycling is particularly acute today, and Kyrgyzstan is interested in implementing modern, environmentally friendly technologies. We value not just ideas but working solutions that can be adapted to local conditions. We are open to cooperation and ready to support such projects at all stages of implementation,” he said. The initiative reflects Kyrgyzstan’s broader push to tackle growing volumes of household and industrial waste through the adoption of advanced, sustainable recycling technologies.

Banking

Kyrgyzstan Intends to Reduce the Storage Period for Negative Credit Information

Kyrgyz authorities are moving to ease regulations surrounding credit history retention in an effort to stimulate the banking sector and provide indirect support to small and medium-sized enterprises. A draft law from the Ministry of Economy and Commerce has been submitted for public discussion. The proposed changes would reduce the retention period for negative credit information from five years to three, and for positive information from seven years to five. According to estimates by local economists, the credit portfolio of Kyrgyzstan’s commercial banks reached approximately $5.27 billion last year. The share of overdue loans stood at around $151 million, or about 2% of the total. The ministry believes that easing access to credit will help stimulate entrepreneurial activity. Broader borrowing opportunities could support business development, increase employment, and generate additional tax revenue. As of now, approximately 1.5 million Kyrgyz citizens have a credit history, of whom 302,000 have negative records, including nearly 200,000 individuals blacklisted by financial institutions. If the law is enacted, a substantial number of these citizens may regain access to formal banking services. Authorities also expect the reform to reduce reliance on shadow lending and curb dependence on microloans outside the official financial sector. Under the internal policies of most commercial banks, a loan delinquency of more than 90 days typically qualifies as negative credit history, severely diminishing a borrower's chances of securing new financing. The bill has already passed its first reading in parliament. Given that it has been approved by the relevant ministries and agencies, its eventual adoption appears likely.