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Bilateral Relations

Tokayev and UK Trade Minister Discuss Investment, Energy and AI Cooperation

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with UK Minister of State for Trade Lord Anas Sarwar in Astana on October 7 to discuss cooperation in energy, transport and logistics, digitalization and artificial intelligence. Tokayev said the United Kingdom remains one of Kazakhstan’s leading trade and investment partners. Bilateral trade rose by 83% in 2025 to more than $1.6 billion, according to the Kazakh presidency. More than 500 British companies operate in the country. The commercial relationship has long been anchored partly in energy. British energy major Shell holds stakes in the Karachaganak and Kashagan projects, and in March signed a new exploration contract in Kazakhstan’s Aktobe region. “Kazakhstan and the United Kingdom are connected by constructive political dialogue and active engagement at various levels,” Tokayev said, adding that there was significant scope to expand cooperation further. The talks come several months after Kazakhstan ratified a Strategic Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with the United Kingdom covering trade, investment, energy, critical minerals, education and other areas. The agreement was originally signed in Astana in 2024. Sarwar welcomed the development of the strategic partnership and thanked Tokayev for supporting British business projects and creating a favorable investment climate. “We are following Kazakhstan’s dynamic development with great interest and highly value the similarity of our approaches to key issues on the international agenda,” Sarwar said. He said Britain wanted its partnership with Kazakhstan to deliver concrete results, citing innovation and free trade as shared priorities. Critical minerals have emerged as one area of more practical cooperation. At the inaugural CA5+UK ministerial meeting in London in February, Kazakhstan and Britain agreed on a critical minerals roadmap through 2027. Existing cooperation includes a rhenium project involving Kazakhstan’s Zhezkazganredmet and British company Maritime House. The October 7 presidential readout did not announce any new agreements or investment commitments. The two sides also discussed academic exchanges and joint educational initiatives. British universities have established a growing presence in Kazakhstan, including Cardiff University’s campus in Astana, which opened in September 2025 as the university’s first overseas branch campus. Tokayev encouraged young Kazakhs to study foreign languages, particularly English. “Developing trade and economic ties requires not only new projects and investment, but also people capable of working confidently in an international environment,” Tokayev said. Tokayev also invited British Prime Minister Andy Burnham to visit Kazakhstan.

Bank Membership

Oman Set to Join Eurasian Development Bank as First Gulf Shareholder

Oman is set to become the eighth shareholder of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and the first Gulf state to join the institution. An agreement was signed in Astana on October 6 during Sultan Haitham bin Tarik Al Said’s state visit to Kazakhstan. The EDB’s current shareholders are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Oman would become the first member from outside the former Soviet Union. The agreement, signed by Omani Finance Minister Sultan bin Salim Al Habsi and EDB Chairman Nikolai Podguzov, sets out the terms of the EDB’s operations in Oman. “This agreement reflects our shared intention to build a bridge between Central Asia and the Gulf region,” Podguzov said. Russia remains the bank’s largest shareholder, although its stake was reduced from about 66% to 44.8% in 2023. By the end of June 2026, the EDB’s cumulative portfolio comprised 348 projects with total investment of $22.1 billion. The bank finances projects including transport infrastructure, energy, and digital systems. On October 6, Kazakhstan and Oman signed an agreement on the mutual protection of investments, while Samruk-Kazyna and the Oman Investment Authority agreed to establish a joint investment vehicle to finance projects. As a landlocked country, Kazakhstan is seeking additional routes to the Indian Ocean, and the two sides discussed using Omani ports to transport its goods. Oman has proposed developing a trade corridor through its seaports. The talks in Astana also covered direct air links and other logistics projects. Kazakhstan is seeking to increase exports of grain, meat, and other agricultural products to Oman. In 2025, honey from Kazakhstan was exported to the sultanate for the first time. On October 5, the two countries’ chambers of commerce signed a memorandum aimed at expanding business ties, including in agriculture and logistics. Founded by Kazakhstan and Russia in 2006, the EDB has gradually expanded its membership, most recently with Uzbekistan in 2025.

Oil Exports

Kazakhstan Weighs a Second Major Oil Export Route

Following repeated disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) system, Kazakhstan’s leading oil producers are examining a much larger Trans-Caspian export route. A working group representing eight shareholders responsible for production in the Tengiz and Kashagan fields has commissioned a feasibility study for moving crude from the Atyrau area to Aktau, across the Caspian to Baku, and onward through the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. The study is expected to go to shareholders in November. The current proposal follows a policy line set out in July 2022, when President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev identified the Trans-Caspian route as a priority and instructed KazMunayGas to examine options, including possible participation by Tengiz investors. The present study puts a much larger export channel under commercial examination. CPC remains indispensable, carrying more than four-fifths of Kazakhstan’s oil exports. Of the 78.7 million tons of oil that Kazakhstan exported in 2025, 64.8 million went through CPC. Existing alternatives are small by comparison. Even the eastbound flow to China and the Schwedt route through Russia together absorb only a fraction of CPC volumes, while current Trans-Caspian shipments are smaller still. What has changed is the cost of concentrating so much of Kazakhstan’s oil exports on CPC, not its underlying commercial importance. The producers are in fact studying two alternatives, a subsea pipeline or a much larger tanker fleet. The Trans-Caspian pipeline idea itself is not new. Variants surfaced in 2009 and appeared again in 2016. What is new is the present combination of shareholder sponsorship, operational urgency, and contemplated scale. Each option is intended to support volumes of up to 35 million metric tons a year. KazMunayGas (KMG) moved 1.3 million tons from Aktau toward BTC in 2025, while its agreement with SOCAR provides for a phased increase to 2.2 million tons annually. The shareholder proposal would expand the existing Trans-Caspian route into a second major export channel. Why Redundancy Now Repeated interruptions in CPC flows have converted the risks of route concentration into lost oil production and a lower national production target. In July, for example, attacks struck tankers loading or approaching the CPC marine terminal, repeatedly suspending operations. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov later put production lost to January, June, and July disruptions at about 3.5 million tons and reduced the 2026 production target from 98 million to 96 million tons. Even temporary interruptions reduce revenues and force urgent production decisions upstream. A Trans-Caspian route capable of carrying 35 million tons a year would not replace CPC, but it would materially reduce Kazakhstan’s exposure to a prolonged interruption. The reported figure equals more than half the 64.8 million tons exported through CPC in 2025 and is almost sixteen times the 2.2-million-ton level contemplated under the existing KMG–SOCAR expansion agreement. It would allow Kazakhstan to divert a substantially larger share of production during disruptions. Kazakhstan can now reroute one or two million tons relatively quickly, but not the tens of millions carried through CPC. The first constraint is inside Kazakhstan. Tengiz and Kashagan lack a high-volume pipeline connection to...

Rail Corridors

Kazakhstan Pursues Trans-Afghan Railway Routes to Indian Ocean

Kazakhstan wants a railway route to the Indian Ocean through Afghanistan and Pakistan. There is already freight that could use such a corridor: in the first seven months of 2026, Kazakhstan’s exports to Afghanistan approached $573 million. What does not yet exist is a continuous railway all the way to the sea. Several developments around this route took place in late September. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and the United Arab Emirates agreed to study a corridor through Afghanistan to Pakistani ports. In western Afghanistan, a new section of a separate railway built with the participation of a company from Kazakhstan opened. Astana is also involved in plans for a railway from the Turkmen border through Herat and farther across Afghanistan. It is important not to treat all these projects as a single railway. The September 30 memorandum on the Central Asia-South Asia (CASA) project describes a route through Uzbekistan. The Khaf-Herat and Torghundi-Herat projects are separate schemes involving western Afghanistan. Official terminology has not always been consistent, with earlier government statements also using the CASA label for the Torghundi-Herat-Kandahar-Spin Boldak proposal. Afghanistan has already become a significant market for Kazakhstan’s food products. In January-July 2026, bilateral trade reached $581.1 million, compared with $541.6 million for the whole of 2025. Almost all of this year’s turnover, $572.9 million, consisted of exports from Kazakhstan. Flour accounted for $215.6 million, wheat for $122 million, and vegetable oil for $51.1 million. In the 2022-2023 season, Kazakhstan exported around 17,000 tons of sunflower oil to Afghanistan. The volume has risen to 75,000 tons in the current season, while the industry is targeting 110,000-120,000 tons next season. The two governments have set a target of increasing bilateral trade to $3 billion. For Kazakhstan, Afghanistan is currently primarily a market. The larger transport plans envisage a second role for the country: a transit territory through which Kazakh freight could eventually reach the sea. CASA: Across Afghanistan to the Sea The route now under consideration would run from Kazakhstan through Uzbekistan and Afghanistan to Pakistan, providing access to Pakistani ports on the Indian Ocean. Kazakh authorities say the corridor could eventually carry up to 10 million tons of freight a year. The three countries agreed to conduct technical and economic studies and examine financing options. No cost estimate, final route, or construction timetable has been announced. The infrastructure gap is clear on Afghanistan’s railway map. Short railway lines enter the country from Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in the north and from Iran in the west. Pakistan’s rail network, in turn, does not extend into Afghanistan. Kazakhstan is also building ties with the Pakistani end of any future corridor. During President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s state visit to Pakistan in February, transport and railway organizations signed cooperation documents, while the ports of Aktau and Karachi agreed to exchange information. Talks also covered Gwadar and transit routes through Afghanistan. Why Herat Matters to Kazakhstan Herat lies in western Afghanistan, close to both Iran and Turkmenistan. That geography puts the city at the center of several...

Gas Trade

Uzbekistan Gas Exports Fall 35% as Imports Rise

Uzbekistan is spending more on gas imports while earning less from exports. In January-August 2026, exports of natural and manufactured gas fell 34.8% year-on-year to $322.3 million, according to data from the National Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Over the same eight months, the country imported $1.22 billion worth of gas, 15.2% more than a year earlier. Of that amount, $124.3 million was spent on liquefied gas, including propane, with the value of those imports rising about 3.5-fold. In value terms, Uzbekistan imported almost four times as much gas as it exported. The country continues to sell gas to China while bringing in supplies from Russia and Turkmenistan to cover its domestic needs. Domestic natural gas production fell 16.3% year-on-year to 24.2 billion cubic meters in January-August, while demand remains high. The government said in August that expanding industrial capacity and the needs of a growing population were increasing demand for natural gas and petroleum products, with seasonal consumption adding further pressure. Five gas fields have been discovered since the beginning of the year, while 80 wells have been drilled, some to depths of 6,000 meters or more. Another 40 are planned for the fourth quarter. In May, BP p.l.c., formerly British Petroleum, acquired a 40% stake in a project covering six exploration blocks in western Uzbekistan’s Ustyurt region. State-owned Uzbekneftegaz and the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) each hold 30%. SOCAR operates the project and has been carrying out seismic exploration ahead of drilling. Uzbekistan is also expanding its gas transmission system. Plans include new trunk pipelines and upgraded compressor stations, while the introduction of modern electric motors at some stations is expected to save up to 125 million cubic meters of gas a year.

Satellite Development

Kazakhstan Plans Six New Earth Observation Satellites

Kazakhstan plans to build six Earth observation satellites, including three high-resolution and three medium-resolution spacecraft. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development Zhaslan Madiyev announced the expansion at a government meeting on October 6. The country’s existing system operates three satellites. Their imagery can be used to monitor fires and floods and detect illegal mining, construction, and land use. For Kazakhstan, which covers about 2.7 million square kilometers, satellite imagery makes it possible to monitor large areas regularly without continuous ground inspections. Madiyev put the economic impact of space-based monitoring over the past five years at 977 billion tenge, around $2.14 billion. Kazakhstan is also trying to turn its satellite technology into an export business. It is implementing three projects with Mongolia, the Republic of the Congo, and Nigeria, worth about $70 million in total. These partners are expected to participate in a Kazakhstan-led international Earth observation constellation. Earlier government plans envisaged nine satellites by 2030, comprising six spacecraft from Kazakhstan and one from each partner country, with a possible later expansion to 14. Madiyev said the larger constellation is now expected by that date. Operating the satellites as a shared constellation would allow areas to be photographed more frequently and increase coverage. Kazakhstan has a satellite assembly and testing complex in Astana. The state-owned Kazakhstan Gharysh Sapary operates the country’s Earth observation system, while Ghalam, a Kazakh-French joint venture, develops spacecraft and components at the complex. In September, Kazakhstan signed a strategic cooperation agreement with South Korea’s CONTEC Co., Ltd. on satellite manufacturing, ground infrastructure, Earth observation data processing, and commercialization. A separate investment agreement involving CONTEC and Ghalam is intended to expand production and technological capabilities in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan also operates the KazSat-2 and KazSat-3 communications satellites. Madiyev said the system has generated 72 billion tenge, around $158 million, in revenue. KazSat-3 is due to reach the end of its planned service life in 2029 and be replaced by the KazSat-3R system. The government has already allocated 10.4 billion tenge, about $22.3 million, from its reserve toward the project.