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Middle Powers

Which Central Asian States Qualify as Middle Powers in 2025?

As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Central Asia’s states are emerging as active regional players. This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. 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This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. Economic Power Economic autonomy is a defining attribute of middle-power capability, enabling states to project influence, sustain policy independence, and finance external engagement. In Central Asia, dependence on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and remittances often reflects constrained fiscal capacity and limited domestic capital formation, while diversified, resilient economies underpin strategic autonomy. Key indicators—GDP per capita, credit ratings, debt sustainability, and export diversification—illuminate the region’s economic hierarchy. Kazakhstan stands as Central Asia’s only consolidated economic middle power. Resource-backed growth, a prudent fiscal regime, and a sovereign wealth fund (the National Fund of Kazakhstan) have anchored macroeconomic stability. With a “BBB” credit rating or equivalent from major agencies, Kazakhstan demonstrates sound debt management and policy credibility. Ongoing diversification efforts under the new economic policies—from renewables to financial modernization—aim to reduce hydrocarbon dependence and deepen integration into global supply chains. Its role as a trans-Caspian logistics hub enhances both strategic and commercial influence. Uzbekistan, by contrast, is an emerging frontier market propelled by post-2017 reforms in currency liberalization, taxation, and state-enterprise restructuring. Rapid GDP growth and expanding private-sector activity mark its trajectory toward fiscal autonomy, though continued ODA inflows averaging around $1.1 billion to 1.3 billion annually, primarily from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the World Bank, and bilateral partners such as Japan, the United States, and the European Union, highlight its residual dependence on external concessional financing. To achieve genuine middle power status, Uzbekistan must roughly double its real economic output over the next decade, a scale of growth aligned with the shift...

Foreign Investment

Kazakhstan Courts Global Investment with Critical Minerals and Green Energy Push

Since gaining independence, Kazakhstan has established itself as a reliable global supplier of raw materials. Today, the country's economic structure is evolving as it positions itself as a high-added-value hub for industrial production. These developments are closely tied to Kazakhstan’s transition to a green economy and its role in global supply chains for critical minerals. Creating a Favorable Investment Climate Kazakhstan has taken significant steps to create a transparent, predictable investment environment and enhance its business competitiveness. Among these measures is the introduction of investment agreements that guarantee legislative stability for up to 25 years for large projects exceeding $60 million. The legal framework has also undergone reforms, procurement procedures have been modernized, and judicial reforms have created separate cassation courts and redefined the Supreme Court’s role. These reforms have drawn the attention of international investors and rating agencies. In 2024, Moody’s upgraded Kazakhstan’s long-term credit rating to the highest level in the country's history, citing macroeconomic stability and policy predictability. In the first nine months of 2025, GDP grew by 6.3%, while investment in fixed capital rose by 13.5% to reach $26 billion. Moody’s analysts also highlighted Kazakhstan’s stronger economic outlook compared to other hydrocarbon-exporting nations, attributing this to ongoing reforms that enhance the country’s competitiveness. One key driver is the rapid development of the transport and logistics sector, particularly through the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route, also known as the Middle Corridor. This corridor is attracting foreign investors across a range of non-oil sectors, including automotive, pharmaceuticals, food production, and construction materials. Kazakhstan is also home to the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), a platform that operates under English common law. The AIFC offers tax exemptions, simplified labor regulations, and digital arbitration. It currently ranks first in Eastern Europe and Central Asia in the Global Financial Centres Index. More than 4,200 companies from 80 countries, including over 60 American firms, are registered with the AIFC. Strategic Projects Take Shape Kazakhstan’s diversification strategy and focus on critical minerals were prominently showcased during the 8th Kazakhstan Global Investment Roundtable (KGIR-2025), held in Astana in October. The event attracted over 1,000 participants from 55 countries, resulting in the signing of 49 agreements worth $7.5 billion. A key session focused on critical minerals and the energy transition, signaling the country’s long-term growth trajectory. Among the highlights was a meeting between the government and Mohammad Vahid Sheikhzadeh Najjar, CEO of FakoorSanat Tehran Engineering Co., to explore cooperation in mining and metallurgy, including new technologies for processing mineral raw materials. Sheikhzadeh Najjar noted that the global market for critical minerals, currently valued at $328 billion, is expected to double by 2032. He emphasized that Kazakhstan is well-positioned to lead this growth. Environmental initiatives, such as a project to process 55 billion tons of mining waste, offer additional economic potential. Meanwhile, Chinese investor Zhang Jintao, founder of Chengdu Sepmem Energy, proposed a long-term plan to develop an LNG cluster in Kazakhstan. The project envisions a nationwide network of LNG plants and supporting infrastructure to reduce emissions...

Literature

TCA Interview: Author Judith Lindbergh on Her Novel “Akmaral”, Set on the Kazakh Steppe

In recent years, many international writers have written books about Kazakhstan. One of these is the American author Judith Lindbergh, whose latest historical novel, Akmaral, is set on the Kazakh steppe. TCA: The story of Akmaral is related to Central Asia, and particularly, Kazakhstan... JL: Absolutely correct. Akmaral is about a nomadic woman warrior on the Central Asian steppes in the 5th century BCE. It’s based on archaeology that many of your readers are likely familiar with: the Siberian Ice Maiden discovered in Tuva and the Issyk Golden Warrior of Kazakhstan. These two burials were just the beginning of my research, which also included the writings of the Greek historian Herodotus about the Amazon warrior women who fought in the Trojan War. I delved deeply into the history, landscape, and cultures of Central Asia, both ancient and modern. In writing my novel, I worked hard to understand how people lived, and still live, on the steppes: their traditional nomadic ways of herding and hunting, and especially how this ancient, often-forgotten culture fits into the broader story of human civilization. [caption id="attachment_38735" align="aligncenter" width="349"] Judith Lindbergh[/caption] TCA: How did the idea to write such a novel come about? JL: It all started with a documentary about the Siberian Ice Maiden. I love ancient history and archaeology, especially when they reveal truths about women’s lives. The Ice Maiden burial was fascinating. Her body was so well preserved that I could almost imagine her standing before me. I wanted to understand how she might have lived, and to uncover the mystery of why she was buried in such an isolated place. As I continued my research, I realized that she was not the only important female burial from that era in Central Asia. There were, in fact, countless others. Many women who had died of war wounds were buried with weapons. I began combining these burials in my imagination to create my main character, Akmaral, which I learned means “White Deer.” The name felt connected to the Siberian Ice Maiden’s famous tattoo, which became an important spiritual symbol in my novel. I used extensive research to try to accurately represent what life might have been like for these ancient women. In historical fiction, as in history itself, women rarely play significant roles in public life. Yet these artifacts and burials show us that many nomadic women once held important military and spiritual positions. There are almost no works written in English about nomadic peoples, including the real life and history of the Kazakhs. In fact, nomads were people who lived freely and truly in their time. And now we are not able to glorify their values, their way of life. What do you think about this? You’re right that there’s very little written in the West about the Sarmatians, or really much about Central Asia at all. I wanted to bring my fascination with this vital, “forgotten” part of history to new readers. In many ways, it can be hard for modern...

Aviation

What’s Holding Back Kazakhstan’s Air Transport Market?

Kazakhstan’s aviation industry has posted steady growth in recent years. Over the past four years, passenger and cargo traffic have risen by more than 36% and 23% respectively, with an actively expanding route network. The state’s aviation development strategy prioritizes infrastructure upgrades, improved safety standards, and expanded international cooperation. Yet, despite these advances, several systemic barriers continue to prevent Kazakhstan from realizing its potential as a Central Asian aviation hub. These challenges were discussed at the New Silk Way International Transport and Logistics Business Forum and the annual TransLogistica Kazakhstan 2025 exhibition. Experts agree that Kazakhstan’s air transport market ranks among the fastest-growing globally, driven in part by geopolitical shifts that have boosted the volume of Chinese and European transit flights through its airspace. Industry Trends and Infrastructure Expansion A major airport modernization effort is underway, targeting key cities such as Astana, Almaty, Aktobe, Shymkent, and Karaganda. Renovations have already been completed in Aktau, Pavlodar, and Balkhash, while new terminals have opened in Almaty, Kyzylorda, and Shymkent. New airports are under construction in Kenderli, Zaisan, Katon-Karagai, and Arkalyk. Total investment in infrastructure has exceeded $2.9 billion. According to the Civil Aviation Committee, in 2025, Kazakh airlines transported a record 15 million passengers and 171,000 tons of cargo. Transit flights accounted for 414 million aircraft-kilometers. Deputy Chairman Sarsen Zharylgasov has stated that the country now operates 56 domestic routes, up 9% year-on-year, and maintains air links with 30 countries. International Routes and Regional Competition In 2025, 33 new international routes were launched, connecting Kazakhstan to cities including Budapest, Munich, Cairo, Shanghai, Phuket, and Delhi. Currently, 140 international routes operate under the Open Skies policy, which has applied to 15 airports since 2019. Looking ahead to 2026, new routes are planned to major global hubs, such as Singapore, Tokyo, Rome, Vienna, and New York. The long-anticipated direct U.S. flight hinges on a successful completion of the FAA's CAT-1 audit, following Kazakhstan’s passage of the preliminary technical assessment in August 2024. The 2022 air transport agreement between the U.S. and Kazakhstan remains a key step toward this goal. Air Astana plans to operate the route using a Boeing 787 Dreamliner, though delivery has been delayed to Q2 2026 due to production backlogs. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan is ramping up its own ambitions. During President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s 2025 visit to the US, Tashkent signed a deal with Boeing for 22 Dreamliners. Analysts suggest this could intensify regional competition and enhance Uzbekistan’s appeal as a transit hub. Airport Bottlenecks and Tariff Issues Despite progress in large cities, many regional airports remain hampered by chronic underinvestment and outdated tariff policies. According to Zharylgasov, tariffs at several airports have not been updated in over two decades. “We are working to completely deregulate tariffs, but the Agency for the Protection and Development of Competition does not yet support us,” he noted. Eliminating state control over airport tariffs could introduce market-based pricing, attract investors, and improve profitability, particularly for regional hubs. Digitalization Drives Efficiency Digital transformation is another key priority. Kazakhstan...

Human Trafficking

Tajikistan Improves Ranking in U.S. Human Trafficking Report

Tajikistan has improved its standing in the U.S. State Department’s 2025 Trafficking in Persons (TIP) Report, moving up from the Tier 2 Watch List to Tier 2. This designation means the country still does not fully meet the minimum standards for the elimination of human trafficking under U.S. legislation, but is making significant efforts to comply. According to the report, released on the State Department’s official website, Tajikistan’s progress reflects expanded anti-trafficking efforts in 2024. Authorities initiated 57 criminal cases related to human trafficking, down slightly from 60 in 2023 but the number of identified victims surged from 47 to 272. Of these, 238 were victims of forced labor, and 34 were victims of sexual exploitation. In the first half of 2025 alone, Tajik law enforcement registered 39 new cases, including five involving the sale of children. Tajikistan’s shift to Tier 2 signals a positive trajectory. However, the report notes persistent shortcomings. Authorities, for instance, often fail to clearly distinguish between labor exploitation and sexual violence, frequently conflating these with irregular migration or illegal adoption cases. Despite an official ban, the report highlights that schoolchildren and university students in Tajikistan continue to be mobilized for cotton harvesting under the guise of “hashar” or community work days. The TIP Report also raises concerns about coercive recruitment tactics used in military conscription, though it does not elaborate on specific methods. Refugees and stateless individuals are another focus of concern. According to the report, some citizens of Afghanistan and Bangladesh have been subjected to forced labor at construction sites in Tajikistan. U.S. estimates indicate that more than 12,000 refugees and asylum seekers live in the country, the majority of whom are Afghan nationals. Tajikistan’s Criminal Code criminalizes human trafficking-related offenses such as kidnapping, trafficking in persons, the sale of minors, and the use of children in the production of pornography. It also covers crimes such as organizing illegal migration, forging documents, and misusing official seals and stamps. While the U.S. report acknowledges improvements in victim identification and data collection, it emphasizes that Tajikistan must strengthen victim protection measures, improve transparency in investigations and expand its prevention strategies to continue advancing in the global anti-trafficking effort.

U.S.-Central Asia Summit

Opinion: A Trump Visit to Central Asia Would Deliver Results and Anchor a Corridor Strategy

On November 6, Washington will host the C5+1 leaders’ summit, marking the format’s 10th anniversary and signaling a rare alignment of political attention and regional appetite for concrete outcomes. The date is confirmed by regional and U.S.-focused reporting, with Kazakhstan’s presidency and multiple outlets noting heads-of-state attendance in the U.S. capital. This timing is decisive. Russia’s bandwidth is constrained by the war in Ukraine, China’s trade weight in Central Asia has grown, and European demand for secure inputs and routes has intensified. All these developments together create a window where a visible United States presence can meaningfully alter the deal flow. A visit sequenced off the November C5+1 will attach U.S. political attention to minerals, corridors, and standards that regional governments already prioritize, confirming the conversion of the summit's symbolism into leverage. Washington already has the instruments but has lacked a synchronized presence. Development finance, export credit, and C5+1 working groups exist, yet announcements have too often outpaced commissioning. A targeted tour could unveil named offtakes, corridor slot guarantees, and training compacts. This would move from the dialogue to bankable packages if paired with financing envelopes, posted schedules, and third-party verification. Deals, dates, and delivery would make operational signals clear to partners and competitors alike. Strategic Rationale and Operating Concept The United States has three clear goals. These are to diversify critical minerals away from single-point dependency on China, de-risk trans-Eurasian routes that connect Asian manufacturing to European demand, and reinforce the sovereignty of the states in the region without pressuring them to choose sides in great-power competition over other issues. These imperatives already guide the national-security strategies of Central Asian governments, which implement them according to multi-vector doctrines. A presidential visit that treats minerals, corridors, and standards as a single package would show that Washington is prepared to move forward on the same problem set that the region has defined for itself. The ways to do that are through finance-first diplomacy and an end-to-end corridor approach, including the Caspian crossing. Finance-first diplomacy pairs every political announcement with insurance, offtake letters, and term sheets (short non-binding summaries of key commercial and legal terms for a proposed deal). These signal the intention to convert declarations into commissioning. An end-to-end corridor approach accepts the physical reality that Central Asian outputs move west through Central Asia, across the Caspian Sea, and across the South Caucasus, with Azerbaijan functioning as the hinge that makes Europe reachable at scale. Each element of the “minerals–corridors–standards” triad reinforces the others when the whole is pursued as a single program. Reliable customs and traceability raise corridor credibility, which raises project bankability, which in turn attracts the private capital required for mineral processing. The instrumentalities for this already exist. The C5+1 framework can be tasked to track deliverables; the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the Export-Import Bank (EXIM) can cover risk and long-term debt; aid and technical programs of the Department of State and Commerce can align standards, procurement integrity, and traceable supply chains; U.S. universities and labs can...