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Heatwave

Kazakhstan Wildfires: Heatwave Tests Reforms Three Years After Semey Ormany

Between July 5 and 11, Kazakhstan’s state forest fund recorded 43 wildfires as an intense heatwave pushed much of the country into conditions of high and extreme fire danger. The Ministry of Ecology said all of the fires were contained before they could develop into large-scale disasters. For Kazakhstan, however, the significance of those figures extends beyond a single week. Three years after the deadly Semey Ormany wildfire exposed serious shortcomings in the country’s emergency response system, each fire season has become a test of whether the reforms introduced since 2023 are keeping pace with increasingly severe weather conditions. How the Fires Were Fought Of the 43 recorded wildfires, 34 occurred within the state forest fund, while nine affected forests managed by regional authorities. Officials said the fires were detected and contained through a combination of aerial surveillance, early warning systems, and coordinated operations involving forestry services and emergency responders. Aircraft conducted reconnaissance flights, transported firefighting crews to remote locations, and carried out water drops where ground access was limited. Firefighters and forestry personnel established firebreaks, extinguished smoldering vegetation, and continued patrols after the flames had been brought under control to prevent reignition. The most difficult situation developed in Akmola Region, where the number of forest fires since the beginning of the fire-hazard season has risen 68.4% compared with the same period last year. Regional authorities responded by strengthening forest patrols and increasing monitoring of high-risk areas, while urging residents to avoid lighting fires or burning dry vegetation during the continuing hot and dry weather. Heat Keeps Raising the Stakes Even as firefighters succeeded in containing the week’s blazes, weather conditions continued to increase the likelihood of new outbreaks. According to Kazhydromet, prolonged heat and limited rainfall have left much of Kazakhstan under high or extreme wildfire danger. Forecasters expect only limited relief. A cold front may bring localized rain and thunderstorms to northern Kazakhstan, but meteorologists say the precipitation is unlikely to significantly reduce wildfire risks. Southern regions are forecast to remain under temperatures of 104-113°F (40-45°C), allowing vegetation to dry rapidly and creating conditions in which even relatively small fires can spread quickly. The persistence of these weather patterns highlights a broader challenge. Kazakhstan’s emergency services are increasingly responding not to isolated wildfire events, but to prolonged periods during which multiple regions face elevated fire danger simultaneously. What Has Changed in Three Years Kazakhstan’s approach to wildfire management changed fundamentally after the June 2023 Semey Ormany disaster, when a fast-moving forest fire in the Abai Region killed 14 forestry workers, destroyed more than 60,000 hectares of forest, and caused an estimated $354 million in damage. A subsequent investigation identified serious shortcomings in the country's preparedness and a lack of regard to the protection of frontline personnel, prompting one of the most significant reforms of the country’s forest protection system since independence. In 2024, Kazakhstan established the Forest Fund Protection and Defense Service to train a generation of specialists and strengthen coordination during major wildfires. The upgraded response system...

Podcast

Pannier and Hillard’s Spotlight on Central Asia: New Episode Out Now

As Managing Editor of The Times of Central Asia, I’m delighted that, in partnership with the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, from October 19, we are the home of the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast. Chaired by seasoned broadcasters Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL’s long-running Majlis podcast and Michael Hillard of The Red Line, each fortnightly instalment will take you on a deep dive into the latest news, developments, security issues, and social trends across an increasingly pivotal region. This week, the team covers a heatwave sweeping across Central Asia, anti-Taliban forces briefly seizing a district headquarters in a worrying sign of cracks in the Taliban's control, a shootout between different branches of Kyrgyzstan's security forces near the Uzbek border, promising new talks between Turkmenistan and Georgia, and a major shake-up inside Uzbekistan's presidential security services. Before then turning to our main story this week, where a growing number of countries are working with Central Asian governments to forcibly return Central Asian nationals, often into incredibly dangerous situations. - Steve Swedlow (Associate Professor of the Practice of Human Rights) - Bakhtiyor "Bakh" Safarov (Central Asia Consulting)

Trade Barriers

Kazakhstan Wheat Ban Raises Risk of Renewed Trade Spat With Russia

A truck crossing into Kazakhstan through a northern border post can be declared as carrying 18 tonnes of wheat while hauling as much as 40 tonnes. Grain Union analyst Evgeny Karabanov described that gap as part of the country’s problem with undeclared Russian grain. Astana’s answer is a six-month ban on most wheat imports from July 27. The measure may curb grey-market loads and support domestic farmers, but it also risks reopening a trade dispute with Russia and deepening the gap between the Eurasian Economic Union’s promises and daily commerce. Agriculture Minister Aidarbek Saparov’s order covers wheat arriving by road, water, and rail from EAEU members and other countries. Poultry farms, grain processors, licensed elevators, and the state Food Contract Corporation may still import by rail. Wheat imported for poultry farms and grain processors cannot be resold inside Kazakhstan or abroad. Rail transit through Kazakhstan remains exempt. The government says the ban will support local producers and secure sales. Deputy Agriculture Minister Azat Sultanov said Kazakhstan has large carryover stocks that need storage. “The decision was taken to stimulate the domestic market,” he said in June. The order names every foreign supplier, but its commercial impact will fall mainly on Russia. In January, the Grain Union forecast about one million tonnes of wheat imports during the September 2025 to August 2026 marketing year. Karabanov said practically all of that grain would come from Russia. Cheap wheat crosses a long shared border into Kazakhstan’s main grain belt. That can lower costs for millers and poultry farms, but it also undercuts growers before they sell their harvest. The ban shifts that pressure rather than removing it. Baimurat Group CEO Daniyar Kuanshaliyev called the measure a “crude administrative intervention” that could raise raw-material prices. He argued that reduced competition for wheat could leave processors paying more while traders and exporters compete for the same domestic stocks. Karabanov takes a less alarmed view. “We generally oppose various bans and restrictions,” he said, but the rail exemptions should limit the number of businesses harmed. He said the clearest cost could be higher transport charges, since trucks are often cheaper than trains for journeys under 500 kilometres. Kazakhstan imposed a broad wheat ban in 2024 after Russian grain continued entering despite earlier controls. TCA’s reporting on the earlier grain dispute found that more than 1.1 million tonnes had arrived in six months before Astana tightened the rules. Russia then restricted Kazakh grain and other agricultural products, citing phytosanitary concerns. Exporters said the effects spread beyond the stated products. “Trucks loaded with those products are being turned away at the border,” Karabanov told Reuters in October 2024. The cycle continued in 2025. Russia reinstated restrictions on Kazakh wheat, flaxseed, and lentils from April, while allowing sealed rail transit. The Grain Union said Moscow had lifted one set of restrictions the previous day, then introduced a new ban with altered terms. That history does not prove Moscow will retaliate this time. Kazakhstan’s order is country-neutral and preserves supplies...

Black Sea Tanker Attacks

Kazakhstan Condemns Drone Attacks as CPC Oil Loadings Halt

Oil loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal have been suspended again after a fourth tanker was struck by a drone on July 20. The NELSA was loading at single-point mooring SPM-1 when the drone hit the stern on its starboard side, between the superstructure and engine compartment. A fire broke out on the deck and inside the vessel but was extinguished after several hours. CPC said 22 crew members were evacuated aboard its tugboats, while the captain and chief officer remained on the tanker. NELSA stayed afloat. No oil spill occurred, and the crude in its cargo tanks did not ignite. Loading had resumed briefly on the evening of July 19 before the latest attack forced another suspension. Kazakhstan had previously condemned drone attacks on three tankers near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal on July 17 and 19, two of which were hit while loading Kazakh oil. The Liberia-flagged ASIA and the Marshall Islands-flagged NISSOS IOS were attacked at single-point moorings SPM-1 and SPM-3 near Novorossiysk. ASIA was loading Tengizchevroil crude. The Marshall Islands-flagged NISSOS IOS was loading oil from Kashagan B.V. and Maten. A fire broke out on ASIA and was extinguished with CPC emergency support. No crew members, CPC employees, or contractors were injured. Both tankers remained afloat, no oil entered the sea, and the moorings were not damaged. Loading was suspended while specialists assessed the damage. Following the attack on ASIA, a spokesperson for Chevron, whose Tengizchevroil crude was being loaded onto the vessel, told TCA: “Chevron is aware of reports of an incident involving a vessel loading at Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) facilities near Novorossiysk. All crew are safe, and the vessel remains stable. The vessel has been moved to a safe anchorage, and we are coordinating with the ship operator and relevant authorities. There has been no impact to TCO operations or exports. Further questions regarding CPC operations should be directed to CPC.” The Kazakh Foreign Ministry described the strikes as an unacceptable infringement on Kazakhstan’s economic interests and a deliberate attempt to disrupt lawful international trade. “Kazakhstan demands an immediate halt to these attacks,” the ministry stated. The ministry said an agreed system for sharing information on civilian vessels entering the Black Sea to load CPC oil had been deliberately ignored. It said the failure endangered crews, called for practical security measures, and reserved Kazakhstan’s right to seek full compensation under international law. Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces struck two tankers in the Black Sea overnight on July 19. It said the vessels were used to transport Russian oil, petroleum products, and fuel for Russia’s armed forces. The post did not name the tankers. CPC said both ships at its terminal were loading oil produced in Kazakhstan and did not publicly identify the attacker. The July 19 incident followed an attack on Nordic Zenith on July 17. The Suezmax tanker was empty and approaching the terminal when two drones hit it. The crew extinguished a fire. Nearby CPC...

External Debt

The Central Asia Debt Divide: Why the Region’s Borrowing Risks Are Not the Same

Central Asia’s biggest debtor is not necessarily its most vulnerable. Kazakhstan accounts for roughly two-thirds of the region’s external liabilities, but much of that debt sits on corporate balance sheets rather than the government’s. Tajikistan owes a fraction of the amount, yet remains at high risk of debt distress. The contrast highlights the Central Asia debt divide. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rely more heavily on sovereign and concessional borrowing, while Uzbekistan’s external liabilities are now split almost evenly between the public and corporate sectors. Based on the latest available figures from national authorities and international financial institutions, the combined external debt of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan approached $275 billion in early 2026. Turkmenistan has not been included in the estimate because the country does not publish comprehensive official external debt statistics that can be directly compared with those of its regional neighbors. The total is an approximate calculation compiled from national statistics rather than a regional aggregate published by a single institution. The countries also release their debt data for different reporting dates and use different classifications, requiring caution when making direct comparisons. Total external debt includes obligations owed to non-residents by governments, central banks, commercial banks, private companies, and, in some countries, local subsidiaries of foreign corporations. Government external debt is a narrower measure covering liabilities that are directly serviced or guaranteed by the state. China remains an important bilateral creditor, particularly in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, while multilateral institutions provide much of the region’s infrastructure and public-sector financing. Kyrgyzstan: Rising Debt, but a Broader Creditor Base Kyrgyzstan’s public debt has risen alongside increased infrastructure spending and domestic borrowing, although its creditor base has become more diversified. A smaller share is now owed to a single bilateral lender, while multilateral financing and the domestic securities market have grown in importance. According to the Kyrgyz Ministry of Finance’s public debt data, the country’s total public debt stood at approximately $8.94 billion as of May 31, 2026, including around $6.1 billion in external obligations. The debt debate has also become part of President Sadyr Japarov’s broader economic narrative. In an interview with the Kabar national news agency published on October 8, 2025, Japarov said his government was continuing to borrow but argued that new loans were being directed toward commercial projects expected to repay their own financing rather than place an additional burden on the state budget. He also said Kyrgyzstan intended to repay its older debts by 2035. The International Monetary Fund said in its 2026 Article IV consultation that Kyrgyzstan had recorded strong economic growth for a fourth consecutive year, giving the authorities an opportunity to strengthen fiscal buffers and accelerate structural reforms. It also warned that the outlook remained exposed to significant downside risks. Kazakhstan: A Large External Debt, but a Different Risk Profile Kazakhstan accounts for the largest share of Central Asia’s external debt, but its headline figure can be misleading. Unlike several of its neighbors, the country’s external liabilities are dominated by corporate and intercompany borrowing rather...

Artificial Intelligence

Tokayev Offers Astana to Host New Global AI Body’s First Meeting

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev put Astana forward at the opening of the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai on July 17, saying that Kazakhstan is ready to host the first meeting of a new global AI organization. He also proposed placing the organization’s Central Asian office in Kazakhstan. Together, the offers set out Tokayev’s wider aim: Kazakhstan wants a role in writing AI rules as well as building the technology at home. Twenty-nine countries signed the agreement establishing the World AI Cooperation Organization on July 16. The founding states included Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, while Turkmenistan did not sign. China first proposed the Shanghai-based intergovernmental body at last year’s conference. Tokayev called the creation of the organization a historic decision and said it could underpin a universal framework for AI governance. “No country should remain merely a consumer of AI,” he said. “Every state must have the opportunity to develop its own human capital, digital infrastructure, and institutional capacity. Here too, the issue is fairness and integrity.” Tokayev also endorsed the conference’s guiding principle, “AI for good, AI for all,” arguing that technological progress should benefit people broadly rather than deepen inequalities within and between countries. His offer to host the new organization’s first meeting in Astana and to establish its Central Asian office in Kazakhstan were aimed at giving the country a role in shaping that agenda. [caption id="attachment_52389" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Image: Akorda[/caption] Astana Bids for a Role in the New AI Body Tokayev’s proposals went beyond hosting a ceremonial gathering. He called for a permanent expert platform on AI regulation, standards and ethics. He also proposed an international network of schools, centers of excellence and academic partnerships. The Kazakh president urged members to develop common standards for testing and certifying AI systems. He said safeguards should address malicious uses, including cyberthreats, deepfakes and digital fraud. AI should remain under human control, he said. Tokayev placed those proposals within his wider diplomatic agenda. He argued that AI could help spot crises earlier and improve humanitarian work and peacekeeping. He said governments spend too much effort dealing with conflicts after they begin and too little preventing them. The new organization adds another layer to Kazakhstan’s technology policy. Citing a person familiar with the U.S. position, Reuters reported that Kazakhstan is the only country listed in both the 29-member body and Washington’s AI Opportunity Statement. Kazakhstan had already joined the U.S.-backed Pax Silica framework on June 25, which covers chips, critical minerals, energy and secure AI supply chains. That overlap carries Kazakhstan’s long-standing multi-vector diplomacy into AI policy. Astana is deepening ties with China while expanding ties to U.S.-linked technology and supply chains. Tokayev’s speech showed that Kazakhstan also wants a voice in the institutions shaping global AI rules. A Digital Bridge With China In Shanghai, Tokayev also proposed a “Kazakhstan-China Digital Bridge.” He said the project should promote digital trade and provide a working model for connecting digital economies through the Belt and Road Initiative. He asked China to support...