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Caspian Pipeline Consortium

Ukraine Says No Evidence of Role in Attacks on Tankers Loading Kazakh Oil: Statement in Full

The Times of Central Asia has reported on drone attacks against tankers serving the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal, including vessels loading Kazakh crude. Kazakhstan condemned the attacks on July 17 and 19 and called for an immediate halt. A fourth tanker, NELSA, was struck while loading on July 20. TCA asked Victor Mayko, Ukraine’s ambassador to Kazakhstan, to respond. His statement is published below in full. “Ukraine understands the concerns of the Kazakhstani side regarding the incidents that occurred on July 17 and 19 involving tankers loading Kazakhstani oil through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s marine terminals in the waters of the Port of Novorossiysk. Let me put it this way—we understand and share these concerns. “At the same time, I am convinced that any conclusions must be based solely on verified facts. As of today, there is no evidence whatsoever that the attacks in question were carried out by the Ukrainian side. Therefore, I ask that you refrain from making hasty and unfounded accusations, whether direct or indirect, against Ukraine. “I would like to point out that the relevant Ukrainian authorities very recently warned of the possibility of Russian provocations, including those involving the use of Ukrainian drones. We have informed our international partners that Russia is actively employing various tactics: Russian electronic warfare systems are capable of disrupting the operation of Ukrainian drones, disabling them, and, in some cases, taking control of them. “That is precisely why the possibility that the Russian side may be using such drones to carry out provocations and attempts to discredit Ukraine must be thoroughly investigated. “War always brings immeasurable suffering and grief to millions of people. But even in the midst of this immense tragedy, there are certain rules recognized by international law, and violations of these rules constitute war crimes. It is forbidden to kill civilians. It is forbidden to torture children, women, and the elderly. It is forbidden to destroy civilian infrastructure in the middle of winter, leaving millions of people without heat, water, electricity, or even shelter. It is forbidden to deliberately kill rescue workers and medical personnel who are rushing to the scene of the tragedy to help the victims. It is forbidden to shoot at ambulances transporting the seriously wounded. The use of chemical weapons, including against the civilian population, is prohibited. It is unacceptable to attack civilian ships carrying Ukrainian grain bound for countries in Southeast Asia and Africa, thereby condemning millions of people to starvation. I could go on with this tragic list. Everything listed here constitutes war crimes. And those responsible for them must inevitably be punished. “Our principled position, even against this backdrop, remains unchanged. The Armed Forces of Ukraine do not strike civilian targets, including those located on the territory of the Russian Federation. Legitimate military targets are exclusively military facilities and infrastructure that support the Russian war machine, which for more than four years now has been waging an armed, unprovoked aggression of unprecedented severity against Ukraine, its army, its...

Economic Growth

Uzbekistan Raises 2026 Growth Forecast to 8.1%

Uzbekistan has raised its 2026 economic growth forecast from 6.6% to 8.1%, after stronger-than-expected performance last year and in the first quarter of 2026. The Ministry of Economy and Finance’s updated Fiscal Strategy for 2027-2029 projects nominal GDP of 2.183 quadrillion soums this year (about $180 billion). The revision follows growth of 7.7% in 2025, above the original 6.6% forecast, and an 8.7% expansion in the first quarter of 2026. The ministry expects market services to grow by 16.6% in 2026, industrial production by 8%, construction by 12.4%, and agriculture by 5%. Inflation is forecast to slow to 6.5%, while unemployment falls from 4.8% in 2025 to 4.5%. The stronger projection rests partly on domestic demand. The strategy expects non-gold exports to rise by 20%, capital investment by 12.9%, and remittance growth to remain around 10%. Separate Central Bank figures show that remittances rose 13% to $3.8 billion in the first quarter, helping to support household spending even as Russia’s share of transfers declined. Growth is forecast to slow to 6.9% in 2027, before rising to 7.1% in 2028 and 7.4% in 2029. Inflation is projected at 5-6% in 2027 and 5% in 2028 and 2029. The government also intends to keep the fiscal deficit within its rules and public debt below 40% of GDP. The Ministry of Economy and Finance says meeting these targets will require stronger tax administration, fewer ineffective exemptions, tighter oversight of public-private partnerships, and further action against the shadow economy. It also plans more transparent medium-term budgeting and closer scrutiny of fiscal risks. The success of those reforms will determine whether rapid growth can be sustained without weakening public finances. The fiscal strategy uses the IMF’s April global outlook as part of its external assumptions. The government’s estimate is considerably more optimistic than the IMF’s 6.8% forecast. In its June assessment, the Fund said Uzbekistan’s outlook remained favorable but warned that the economy could be running above its potential. It identified weaker global conditions and domestic overheating as the principal risks. The revised figures also strengthen the government’s claim that the Uzbekistan-2030 Strategy target of an economy worth more than $240 billion remains achievable. The plan relies on private investment, export growth, higher productivity, and continued macroeconomic reforms. Economist Otabek Bakirov said the 8.1% projection would mark the strongest growth in Uzbekistan’s recent history. “According to the Fiscal Strategy forecasts, economic growth will accelerate to 8.1% in 2026. If this happens, it will become a new record for the country’s recent history,” he wrote in an analysis of the forecast. In a separate calculation, Bakirov put nominal GDP above $205 billion in 2027, $228 billion in 2028, and $257 billion in 2029. On that path, the $240 billion target would be surpassed a year early. However, he cautioned that the scenario depends on maintaining strong growth, low inflation, and exchange-rate stability, without a major domestic or external crisis. A weaker soum would reduce the dollar value of GDP even if output continued to rise quickly...

Caspian Pipeline Consortium

When the War Reaches Kazakh Oil

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine unleashed the war now expanding across the Black Sea, but it did not erase the distinction between Russian military logistics and the lawful commerce of other states. Kazakhstan is not a party to the war, yet its principal oil export route passes through an expanding maritime target zone. The attacks near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal therefore raise a larger question: can civilian trade carrying Kazakh crude be treated as part of Russia’s war economy simply because geography places its outlet on the Russian coast? Four vessels were attacked near CPC’s Black Sea terminal on July 17, 19, and 20. Nordic Zenith, chartered by ExxonMobil according to Reuters, was empty and approaching the terminal when it was hit on July 17. Two days later, ASIA and NISSOS IOS were struck at single-point moorings off Novorossiysk while loading Kazakhstan-produced oil. ASIA was taking Tengizchevroil (TCO) crude; NISSOS IOS was loading oil from Kashagan B.V. and Maten. A fire on ASIA was extinguished; no one was injured, both vessels remained afloat, and no oil entered the sea. Chevron told The Times of Central Asia that the crew was safe, the vessel was stable, and there had been “no impact to TCO operations or exports.” Loading briefly resumed that evening, but on July 20 a drone struck NELSA while it was loading at SPM-1. The impact on the tanker’s starboard side caused a fire on deck and in several compartments. Its 22-member international crew was evacuated except for the captain and chief officer; the vessel remained afloat, the fire was extinguished, and no oil spill occurred. CPC suspended loadings again. Ukraine’s General Staff said separately that its forces had struck two tankers used to transport Russian oil, petroleum products, and fuel for the Russian military in the Black Sea. It did not identify the vessels or connect the claim to the attacks at the CPC terminal. Russia’s Foreign Ministry blamed Kyiv, while CPC itself did not publicly attribute the attacks. Astana’s response to the attacks has remained measured and legalistic. The Foreign Ministry called the attacks an infringement on Kazakhstan’s economic interests and a threat to lawful international trade. It said an agreed mechanism for sharing information on civilian vessels entering the Black Sea to load CPC oil had been disregarded, endangering crews. It reserved Kazakhstan’s right to seek compensation under international law. Following the strike on NELSA, the Energy Ministry said it remained in constant contact with CPC while the tanker’s technical condition and the consequences of the attack were assessed. The statements focused on Kazakhstan’s rights. That is the distinction Astana is asserting: Kazakh cargoes, revenues, crews, and commercial partners should not be treated as extensions of Russia’s war economy merely because they use a terminal on Russian territory. Kazakh Crude and the Western Stake Russia’s invasion created the maritime battlefield in which these incidents occurred, and Ukraine has a legitimate interest in weakening the military logistics that sustain Russia’s campaign. But Kazakhstan is not Russia,...

Energy Security

Kazakhstan’s Main Oil Route Remains Vulnerable. It Is Expanding Alternatives

Kazakhstan’s prosperity has been built largely on oil, much of which still reaches world markets through infrastructure crossing Russian territory. That would be a strategic exposure for any country; for a landlocked state bordering Russia during the largest war in Europe since 1945, it is impossible to ignore. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium route to the Black Sea remains Kazakhstan’s most important oil artery, carrying about 80% of its crude exports. Three tankers were struck near the terminal on July 17 and 19, two while loading Kazakh oil. Loadings briefly resumed before a fourth tanker, NELSA, was hit on July 20, forcing another suspension. No casualties or oil spill were reported, but the attacks repeatedly interrupted Kazakhstan’s main export route. Kazakhstan treated the attacks as a direct threat to its own economic interests, not as an incident confined to Russia. Its Foreign Ministry condemned the July 17 and 19 strikes as unacceptable, said an agreed mechanism for sharing information about civilian vessels entering the Black Sea to load CPC oil had been disregarded, and demanded an immediate halt. Ukraine’s General Staff said it had struck two tankers overnight on July 19 as part of its campaign against Russian oil and military-fuel logistics, but did not identify them. CPC said the vessels at its terminal were loading Kazakh crude. The episode exposed Kazakhstan’s dependence on infrastructure beyond its control. That exposure reflects geography and inherited infrastructure, not Kazakhstan’s foreign policy alignment. It is a serious strategic vulnerability that Astana is trying to reduce. Kazakhstan did not choose its geography, and its export system was not designed for the rupture that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is the world’s largest landlocked country, bordered by Russia and China, and sits on the Middle Corridor linking China and Central Asia with the South Caucasus and Europe. No government in Astana can alter those facts. The relevant question is how it has responded to them. Under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kazakhstan remains highly exposed to oil, but it is not an oil economy standing still. KAZENERGY’s 2023 National Energy Report put the hydrocarbon sector at about 23% of GDP in 2019 and about 20% in 2022. Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics put the oil and gas sector at 16.3% of GDP in 2024. The series are not directly comparable, but both indicate that hydrocarbons remain central even as non-oil sectors expand. Oil dependence has not disappeared. UNCTAD notes that oil exports still account for more than half of total exports and remain central to foreign exchange earnings and public finances. Kazakhstan has made more progress in reducing oil’s share of GDP than its weight in exports and state revenue. Any serious assessment has to account for both. Kazakhstan’s position on Ukraine also needs to be judged in context. Binary judgments obscure the constraints facing a country that shares a long border, trade channels, energy infrastructure and significant security exposure with Russia. Kazakhstan has not recognized Russia’s attempted annexations. In 2022, its Foreign Ministry said it would...

TCA Interviews

Saving The Caspian Seal: An Interview with Assel Baimukanova

The Caspian seal is the only marine mammal native to the Caspian Sea and the world’s only seal species found exclusively in an inland body of water. Once numbering close to one million, its population has declined dramatically over the past century due to commercial hunting, habitat degradation, pollution, accidental entanglement in fishing gear, and climate change. Today, the species is listed as Endangered on the IUCN Red List. Kazakh zoologist Assel Baimukanova has spent the past 13 years studying the Caspian seal alongside her father, renowned scientist Mirgaliy Baimukanov. Their work takes them to remote islands in the northern Caspian, where they spend weeks living in tents, monitoring the animals and collecting data essential to understanding the rapidly changing sea. The Times of Central Asia spoke with Baimukanova about how the Caspian seal coexists with offshore oil production, why scientists perform necropsies on dead animals, and what the future holds for the sea’s only endemic marine mammal. TCA: Assel, you have been studying the Caspian seal for 13 years. Since it is an endemic species found nowhere else in the world, are there many international researchers working on it, or is it studied mainly by Kazakh scientists? Baimukanova: The Caspian seal is indeed an endemic species, meaning it is found only in the Caspian Sea. But it is not studied only by our Institute of Hydrobiology and Ecology. Several research organizations, both in Kazakhstan and abroad, are involved in studying the species. Russian and Iranian scientists also work on the Caspian seal. In addition, we cooperate with researchers who study other seal species in Estonia, Finland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Each of these countries has experience studying different pinniped species, so we regularly exchange expertise and research findings. Our cooperation with international colleagues was particularly active between 2005 and 2017, when we carried out a number of joint research projects. TCA: In your documentary film, you say that although the Caspian Sea is shared by several countries, Kazakhstan bears the greatest responsibility for protecting the Caspian sealbecause the species’ most important habitats are located in Kazakh waters. Baimukanova: Yes, that is true. In spring and autumn, up to 90% of the Caspian seal population may gather in Kazakhstan’s sector of the Caspian Sea. In winter, the animals breed on the ice in the northern Caspian. Depending on ice conditions, breeding colonies may be located in either the Kazakh or Russian sectors. During spring and autumn, however, most seals are found in the shallow and hard-to-reach northeastern part of Kazakhstan’s sector of the sea. That is why the condition of our part of the Caspian is critical to the conservation of the species. TCA: But the ice cover is shrinking every year because of climate change. Should we already be worried, or is there no immediate cause for concern? Baimukanova: There is every reason to be concerned. Warm winters are becoming more common, while cold and severe winters are becoming increasingly rare. Ice still forms, but it...

Venture Capital

How a New Generation of Startups From Kazakhstan Attracted International Investors

A software engineering team writes code in Almaty for a parent company incorporated in Delaware. Most of its revenue comes from customers in the United States and Singapore, with the United Kingdom another important market. Until recently, this business model was unusual in Kazakhstan. It is now becoming more common as entrepreneurs launch international companies from the outset rather than focus solely on the domestic market. Rather than adapt foreign products for Kazakhstan’s population of about 20 million, these founders are developing technology for customers abroad. Their success is drawing interest from international venture capital firms and raising Kazakhstan’s profile as a source of high-growth technology companies. Growth Measured in Numbers The latest Startups and Venture Capital in Central Asia 2026 report by RISE Research shows how quickly Kazakhstan’s venture sector is growing. Venture investment reached $209 million in 2025, nearly three times the $71 million raised a year earlier. The figure also exceeded the combined total elsewhere in Central Asia. The aggregate valuation of funded startups in Kazakhstan rose to $2.16 billion. RISE Research also found that U.S.-oriented startups with roots in Kazakhstan raised more than $214 million in 2025. This helps explain the rise in international interest. Venture funds are backing companies built for global markets rather than businesses dependent on a relatively small domestic customer base. Among the best-known examples is Higgsfield AI, which develops software for creating and editing AI-generated video. The company raised $50 million in Series A financing in September 2025. An $80 million extension in January 2026 brought the round to more than $130 million and valued the company at over $1.3 billion, confirming its status as Kazakhstan’s first unicorn. Cerebra AI develops software that analyzes CT scans to help clinicians detect ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. The platform uses the ASPECTS scale and can return an analysis within minutes. Codiplay supplies educational software and Internet of Things kits used to teach programming and hands-on electronics in 13 countries, including South Korea and the UK. The company raised $9 million in Series A financing in January 2025. Parqour develops parking management software with automated license plate recognition. Its systems operate in 22 countries and cover more than 300 parking areas. These companies work in different fields, but their businesses are built mainly around software and intellectual property, even where hardware is part of the product. That makes expansion abroad less capital-intensive and helps explain their appeal to foreign investors. Why Investors Are Paying Attention Now Kazakhstan’s emergence as Central Asia’s leading venture capital market did not happen overnight. The record investment figures of 2025 followed several years of work in the startup sector, including Astana Hub’s accelerator programs and tax incentives. More founders also began developing products for international markets. One clear sign was international recognition. Three startups with founders from Kazakhstan were accepted into Y Combinator in 2025, matching the total accepted in all previous years combined, according to RISE Research. For international investors, acceptance into the Silicon Valley accelerator provides external validation as...