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Regional Security

Trump 2.0: Security Implications for Central Asia – Diplomats and Analysts Weigh the Risks for Regional Stability

Narxoz University’s Eurasian Institute for Economic and Legal Research and the School of Economics and Management convened distinguished diplomats, military analysts, and academics from the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), The National Institute for Defense Studies (Japan), George Mason University (US), and Maqsut Narikbayev University (Kazakhstan) to analyze the geopolitical and security implications of a second Donald Trump presidency in Central Asia. Professor Ikboljon Qoraboyev, Director of the Center for Global and Regional Governance at Maqsut Narikbayev University, argued that Trump’s pragmatism will drive him to exploit every available opportunity to advance the financial and political interests of himself, his loyal corporate allies, and the United States. This approach, characterized by a “nothing-personal-just-business” mindset, makes his actions inherently unpredictable, keeping both allies and rivals on edge. Trump thrives on calculated ambiguity, using surprise as a strategic tool to gain the upper hand in negotiations and exert maximum pressure on his counterparts. [caption id="attachment_28674" align="aligncenter" width="936"] Image: Daniyar Kosnazarov[/caption] Professor Erzhan Issabayev, Deputy Director of the Eurasian Institute for Economic and Legal Research at Narxoz University, agreed that this unpredictability could shape a second Trump presidency, particularly in terms of global power dynamics. In Central Asia, where political stability and a carefully maintained multi-vector foreign policy are crucial, Trump’s erratic decision-making presents a significant challenge for regional leaders. Professor Issabayev suggested that if Trump escalates efforts to counter China globally or if negotiations to end the war in Ukraine falter, Central Asia could become an unintended yet significant geopolitical battleground. Building on this perspective, Olzhas Zhorayev, a World Bank Group Consultant and Doctoral Researcher at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, examined the potential consequences of deepening U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China confrontations. According to Zhorayev, heightened tensions could push Central Asia further into Moscow’s and Beijing’s political and economic orbit, restricting the region’s strategic flexibility. However, Zhorayev also presented another possibility; if Russia and Ukraine reach a peace agreement, the Kremlin may redirect its focus and resources toward Central Asia, increasing its influence and reshaping the regional balance of power. Expanding on this idea, Marek Jochec, Associate Professor of Finance at Narxoz University, explored the varying perceptions of major global powers in Central Asia. Jochec noted that attitudes toward China and Russia are shaped by a combination of historical experiences, economic ties, and political considerations. While Chinese investment is often viewed as a driver of infrastructure and economic growth, concerns over dependency and influence persist. Russian engagement, deeply rooted in historical and cultural connections, continues to play a significant role, though perceptions vary across different countries. These contrasting views add layers of complexity to the region’s geopolitical positioning, making strategic decision-making increasingly delicate. Ultimately, the expert discussion at Narxoz University highlighted that Trump’s leadership — whether defined by unpredictability, pragmatism, or strategic maneuvering — will have a significant impact on Central Asia. As the region faces shifting geopolitical pressures, governments will need to adapt quickly, reassessing their alliances and economic strategies to...

Politics

Trump-Putin Deal Talks: Central Asia at the Nexus of Global Power Shifts

The reported discussions this week between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have become a central focus for global media and analysts. However, for Central Asia, the most pressing question is not when the war in Ukraine will end—an outcome that could occur as unexpectedly as the contact between U.S. and Russian leaders—but what Russia’s next move will be. The future actions of Moscow remain a primary concern for the five Central Asian countries. On February 12, Donald Trump announced via his social network, Truth Social, that he had a lengthy phone conversation with Vladimir Putin. His main message was that both leaders had agreed on the need to end the war and would take immediate action. The day before, Trump told reporters at the White House that members of his negotiating team and Putin’s representatives would meet in Munich. Despite skepticism from many analysts who anticipated a longer negotiation process, talks are already scheduled to begin on Valentine’s Day. In the same post, Trump revealed the composition of his negotiating team: “I have asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, and Ambassador and Special Representative Steve Witkoff to lead the negotiations.” Although the details of Trump’s proposed peace plan remain under discussion, a rough outline has emerged from various sources which involve: A freeze in fighting along the current front line. The establishment of a demilitarized zone spanning the entire 1,300-kilometer front. Deployment of a European military contingent, including UK troops, to patrol the demilitarized zone (U.S. troops will not be involved, but may provide training and logistical support). A 20-year postponement of Ukraine’s NATO membership bid in exchange for continued Western arms supplies. Recognition of Russian sovereignty over occupied territories. Security guarantees for Ukraine from European countries. A possible EU membership pathway for Ukraine by 2030. A 10-year reconstruction plan for Ukraine, funded by European countries and Russian contributions. A gradual lifting of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector over several years. Reimbursement of U.S. military aid to Ukraine through Ukrainian natural resource revenues. Presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine in 2025, especially if a settlement is reached between Kyiv and Moscow. If Russia accepts these terms, they are likely to be included in the final draft of the agreement. Notably, Trump’s plan takes Moscow’s interests into account, though some points were reportedly rejected during the February 12 call. The depth of the proposal suggests that Trump’s team and Putin’s representatives have been in contact for some time, well before Trump’s formal inauguration as U.S. president. Trump first hinted at such talks in March 2023, when he claimed he could resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours of taking office. At the time, many dismissed this as election rhetoric. However, recent events suggest that he is following through on his promises. A striking example is the release of Mark Vogel, an American sentenced in Russia to 14 years in prison for marijuana possession. His return to the U.S. was part of a...

Diplomacy

First Kyrgyz-British Strategic Dialogue Meeting Held in London

The first meeting of the Kyrgyz-British Strategic Dialogue was held in London on February 13, co-chaired by Kyrgyz Deputy Foreign Minister Meder Abakirov and UK Minister of State for Europe, North America, and Overseas Territories Stephen Doughty. According to the Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry, the meeting covered key areas of bilateral cooperation, including politics, security, trade, investment, finance, energy, sustainable development, culture, education, and tourism. Strengthening Bilateral Relations Abakirov emphasized the Strategic Dialogue as a new platform for deepening relations between the two countries. Meetings will be held regularly to advance cooperation. The first session focused on: Expanding trade and investment, attracting British investors to Kyrgyzstan, and increasing Kyrgyz exports to the UK. Enhancing education and scientific exchanges, including scholarship programs and digital education projects. Joint initiatives in the green economy, climate change, and sustainable development. UK-Kyrgyzstan Trade and Investment Growth The UK is a key economic partner for Kyrgyzstan. In 2024, total bilateral trade reached £144 million, a 73.5% increase from the previous year. Since June 2023, Kyrgyzstan has been part of the UK’s Developing Countries Trade Scheme (DCTS), which grants preferential or duty-free access to the UK market for around 8,000 Kyrgyz products. In December 2024, the UK Export Finance (UKEF) agency approved a £1.8 billion soft loan to support sectoral projects in Kyrgyzstan. The British government has also pledged funding for the development of Kyrgyzstan’s national strategy on critical minerals. This project is being carried out by Boston Consulting Group, which is also leading efforts to digitize Kyrgyzstan’s geological data, a move expected to attract further investment in the mining sector. Additionally, negotiations have begun with the London Stock Exchange to prepare Kyrgyz state-owned companies for initial public offerings (IPOs).

Corruption

U.S. Suspends Enforcement of Foreign Bribery Law: Should Kazakhstan Be Worried?

U.S. President Donald Trump has issued an executive order suspending enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), effectively allowing U.S. companies to offer bribes to foreign officials and politicians. This decision is expected to prompt tighter scrutiny of potential corruption among officials in Kazakhstan. On February 12, 2025, Trump signed an executive order pausing enforcement of the FCPA, a landmark anti-bribery law that has regulated U.S. business practices abroad since 1977. The order directs the U.S. Department of Justice to suspend enforcement of the law, which previously criminalized bribery of foreign officials by American companies. Trump argued that the FCPA puts U.S. businesses at a competitive disadvantage internationally. “The law looks good on paper, but in practice, it's a disaster,” Trump stated, emphasizing that excessive regulatory oversight harms U.S. economic and national security interests. Under the FCPA, companies and individuals could face up to 15 years in prison and fines of up to $250,000 for offering or coordinating bribes. The law was enforced in 24 cases in 2024 and 17 cases in 2023. Trump’s executive order tasks the attorney general with reviewing the law’s provisions. U.S. companies have previously been linked to corruption scandals involving high-ranking Kazakhstani officials. The most infamous case, known as Kazakhgate, dates back to the late 1990s. American businessman James Giffen was accused of funneling tens of millions of dollars in bribes, along with luxury gifts, to secure access to Kazakhstan’s vast oil reserves. The investigation implicated former President Nursultan Nazarbayev and ex-Prime Minister Nurlan Balgimbayev, who allegedly received payments through offshore accounts in exchange for favorable investment conditions. However, Kazakhstani officials were never formally charged, and Giffen ultimately received a minor fine. In December 2024, Mazhilis deputy Yermurat Bapi warned that a similar scandal — dubbed Kazakhgate-2 — could soon unfold. “According to my information, a new grandiose scandal is brewing in the United States,” Bapi stated in an interview with Elmedia. “The U.S. Department of Justice is preparing a new criminal case against global kleptocrats who previously relied on American companies, insurers, and consultants. If they used these services, they will face prosecution.” Speculation surrounding Kazakhgate-2 intensified after Nazarbayev’s December 2024 trip to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, Trump’s decree has now cast doubt on whether the case will proceed. Another major corruption-related dispute involving Kazakhstan is the Stati case. Since 2010, the Kazakhstani government has been embroiled in legal battles with Moldovan oligarchs Anatol and Gabriel Stati over the early termination of their subsoil use contracts. The dispute has led to litigation across multiple jurisdictions, including the U.S., U.K., and EU countries, with Kazakhstan's National Fund assets being temporarily frozen. Some sources suggest that Timur Kulibayev, Nazarbayev’s son-in-law, played a role in the case. Corruption concerns are not limited to Kazakhstan. In late January 2025, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin publicly criticized Kyrgyz authorities for allegedly extorting Russian businesses operating in Kyrgyzstan. “We urge the Kyrgyz leadership to cease administrative pressure on our companies and ensure the protection...

Sanctions

U.S. Urges Tajikistan to Enforce Sanctions on Russian Firms Amid Ongoing Compliance Review

The Tajik government has received an official letter from the United States requesting compliance with sanctions against several Russian companies operating in the country, Chairman of the State Committee on Investment and State Property Management Sulton Rakhimzoda announced at a press conference on February 11. According to Rakhimzoda, the U.S. has requested clarification on what measures Tajik authorities plan to take regarding the sanctions. “This is a sensitive topic, and it is currently under consideration,” he stated. He added that sanctions against Russian companies are not a new phenomenon and that businesses affected by the restrictions should already have mechanisms in place to adapt. “It is clear that sanctions impact companies to varying degrees. However, as far as I know, they have already developed strategies to operate under these conditions. These issues are also being discussed in negotiations with the government,” Rakhimzoda said. He noted that the Investment Committee does not oversee this sector directly, but that the relevant government agencies are handling the matter. Following the start of the conflict in Ukraine, the U.S. and the European Union imposed strict sanctions on several Russian enterprises. In January 2025, the U.S. Department of the Treasury sanctioned Gazpromneft Tajikistan along with its parent company, Gazprom Neft. Tajik authorities have stated that the sanctions will not affect oil product imports into the country. However, experts warn that the restrictions could eventually impact other companies cooperating with Gazpromneft Tajikistan.

United Nations

UN Pays Kazakhstan $2.6 Million Annually for Military Equipment in Golan Heights

The United Nations pays Kazakhstan $2.6 million per year for the lease of military equipment and weapons used in its peacekeeping mission in the Golan Heights, Kazakhstan's Deputy Defense Minister Shaykh-Khasan Zhazykbayev announced at a Mazhilis meeting. On February 12, Mazhilis deputies ratified a memorandum with the UN outlining the terms of Kazakhstan’s contribution to the mission. Since March 2024, 139 Kazakhstani servicemen have been deployed to the region, supported by 26 units of military equipment. Under the agreement, UN payments are divided into two categories: approximately $2.4 million per year is allocated for personnel maintenance, while $2.6 million covers the lease of military equipment, weapons, and other resources. Each Kazakhstani peacekeeper receives a monthly salary of $1,448, along with additional payments for leave and out-of-pocket expenses. A separate agreement between Kazakhstan and the UN regulates financial transactions. Under this arrangement, payments for military personnel go directly to the soldiers, while funds for leased equipment and property are transferred to the state budget. During 11 months of operations in the Golan Heights, Kazakhstani peacekeepers have neutralized approximately 200 unexploded ordnance and conducted the evacuation of a UN employee. The Ministry of Defense of Kazakhstan reported that in December 2024, the contingent demonstrated a high level of professionalism, efficiency, and coordination. Meanwhile, tensions in the conflict zone remain high. The Kazakh contingent operates in a region where hostilities between Israel and Syria persist. Israel continues to expand military infrastructure in the Golan Heights, which it has controlled since 1967. However, many countries recognize the area as Syrian territory and consider it occupied. Previously, the UN discussed the possibility of evacuating Kazakhstani peacekeepers if the security situation deteriorates.