International Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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Rare Earth Elements

Kazakhstan’s Emerging Role in Global Rare-Earth Supply Chains

October 10 was one of the most consequential days for global trade policy and one of the most volatile for world markets since the U.S.–China tariff conflict first reignited. After China announced tighter export controls on rare earths, U.S. President Donald J. Trump first posted on Truth Social that “there seems to be no reason” anymore for him to meet with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in two weeks' time. Several hours later, the official White House account on X posted a message from Trump that he had learned that "effective November 1st, 2025, [China will] impose large-scale Export Controls [sic] on virtually every product they make, and some not even made by them." He then followed with the declaration that the U.S. will impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, "or sooner," and launch export controls on critical software. As Washington and Beijing escalate their economic confrontation, the scramble for stable rare-earth supply chains has broadened beyond East Asia. Attention is shifting to Central Asia, where mineral potential and trade corridors align with the broader effort to reduce dependence on China. Kazakhstan has drawn particular attention, not as a single solution, but as a state seeking to leverage its Soviet-era industrial base and access to the Caspian to help meet emerging supply chain needs. Although Kazakhstan has made the most progress in translating its mineral reserves into a functioning mining industry, it remains part of a broader regional effort to diversify away from a single external partner, most notably China. Other Central Asian states are testing their own capabilities to meet global supply chain demands, though most remain constrained by infrastructure, financing, or lack of processing capability. Kazakhstan’s Position in the Emerging Supply Realignment On reserves, Kazakhstan’s rare-earth potential is rooted as much in continuity as it is in discovery. Decades of geological mapping under Soviet administration established its mineral profile, and recent joint surveys by Kazgeology and private firms have both confirmed and expanded those earlier findings. New delineated deposits in the east and center of the country, including the Zhana Kazakhstan site in Karagandy, have reinforced its status as a prospective non-Chinese source of critical materials, with verified concentrations of neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and samarium. If current resource estimates are validated, the Zhana Kazakhstan deposit could rank among the largest rare-earth reserves in the world. These elements are essential inputs for high-efficiency magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and advanced defense systems. The U.S. Department of Defense classifies these rare earths as “critical defense materials,” a designation that underscores their strategic relevance rather than any immediate shift in supply. Both the Pentagon and the Defense Logistics Agency have begun increasing stockpiles and exploring alternative processing sources, but for now, the question in Kazakhstan is not geological endowment, which is established, but the terms under which that endowment can be brought to market. On processing capacity, Kazakhstan’s experience in large-scale mining of uranium, copper, and other critical minerals has...

Gabala 2025

Opinion: The Twelfth Summit of the Organization of Turkic States – A Turning Point for Regional Peace and Integration

The Twelfth Summit of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) was held on October 6–7, 2025, in Gabala, Azerbaijan, under the theme “Regional Peace and Security,” and was hosted by the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev. Attending the summit were Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of the Republic of Kazakhstan; Sadyr Japarov, President of the Kyrgyz Republic; Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of the Republic of Turkey; Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of the Republic of Uzbekistan; and Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, participating as an observer. Turkmenistan, represented by Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, represented by Ersin Tatar, also attended the summit as observer members. Among the central topics discussed was support for the Joint Declaration signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia on August 8, 2025, in Washington, D.C. The OTS member states regard this declaration as an important step toward lasting peace and stability in the South Caucasus. The summit also emphasized the need for a collective Turkic effort to sustain peace in the region. In his address, President Aliyev noted that one of the outcomes of the Washington Summit was progress on the Zangezur Corridor, describing it as a new transportation route of great importance within both the Middle Corridor and the North–South Corridor. Speaking before the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had countered the use of the term “Zangezur Corridor,” which does not appear in the signed documents and was never used in negotiations. Despite these objections, however, Aliyev again used the term at the OTS Summit, reaffirming his intention to move forward under that framework. The New York meeting on September 22, 2025, between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, where both sides agreed to continue dialogue based on the outcomes of the Washington Declaration, has been widely considered a constructive step toward normalization of relations between the two parties. Another highlight of the summit was President Erdoğan’s call to develop the ‘Turkish Large Language Model.’ “To catch up with global developments in artificial intelligence and to preserve our cultural richness, we need to accelerate the development of the Turkish Large Language Model,” Erdoğan said. “[In] Türkiye, we are taking the first step on the common alphabet issue by printing a work about Chingiz Aitmatov and the Oghuznames in the common alphabet. Today, we are also presenting a copy of this to the leaders.” The initiative reflects the vision for greater cultural, scientific, and digital integration among Turkic states, and it was included as part of the broader digital transformation and innovation agenda outlined in the Gabala Declaration, which followed the summit. Kazakh President Tokayev described the Organization of Turkic States as an “authoritative structure uniting friendly Turkic peoples,” capable of addressing shared challenges, and expressed support for establishing an “OTS+” format to expand cooperation and global visibility. President Aliyev, meanwhile, highlighted growing military collaboration between Azerbaijan and Turkey, referencing more than 25 joint exercises held within one year - although this figure has...

Gaza Ceasefire

Kazakhstan Maintains Diplomatic Balance Following Gaza Ceasefire

On Monday, the Palestinian group Hamas handed over the final 20 surviving hostages to Israel in a two-stage exchange, reportedly mediated with the involvement of Qatari representatives. By midweek, the outcome of the latest ceasefire attempt between Israel and Hamas may become clearer. On October 13, U.S. President Donald Trump addressed the Knesset in Israel, before traveling to Egypt for a summit. The hostages had been held for more than two years, mirroring the duration of Israel’s military campaign that has reverberated across the region. The two-stage exchange formed part of a broader ceasefire framework backed by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar. Washington has framed the deal as a cornerstone of its renewed Middle East peace initiative, which aims to establish a long-term truce and pave the way for gradual reconstruction in Gaza. Trump described the agreement as the "beginning of a new security architecture for the region,” though analysts caution that deep mistrust between the parties could still derail implementation. The ongoing war in the Middle East is impacting Kazakhstan, as it is across Central Asia. Anti-Israeli sentiment has grown in this majority-Muslim country, though the government continues to advocate for a balanced and diplomatic approach. For Astana, maintaining neutrality amid the polarized reactions to the war is not just a matter of diplomacy, but also a matter of regional stability. Kazakhstan’s leadership views itself as a potential bridge between Muslim-majority nations and Western partners, drawing on its history of multivector foreign policy. Officials stress that Astana’s engagement is guided by the principles of dialogue and international law rather than religious or ideological alignment. A Delicate Diplomatic Position Kazakhstan has consistently supported international peacekeeping efforts. On September 30, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev backed Trump's Gaza peace plan, and on October 9, Tokayev welcomed the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip and the release of hostages, as announced by his press secretary, Ruslan Zheldibay. Tokayev commended the mediation efforts of Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, and acknowledged the contributions of the United States and President Trump in advancing peace negotiations in the region. Kazakhstan recognized the State of Palestine in 1992 and established diplomatic ties. While economic relations remain minimal, the recognition holds symbolic political significance. At the same time, Kazakhstan maintains relatively strong relations with Israel, with a notable volume of bilateral trade. The country's longstanding diplomatic stance emphasizes the principle of “two states for two peoples.” Bilateral trade between Kazakhstan and Israel exceeded $450 million in 2023, driven primarily by exports of Kazakh metals and imports of Israeli technology and agricultural products. Cooperation in water management, healthcare, and defense technologies has continued despite regional instability. Kazakh officials have also emphasized the importance of Israeli investment in innovation and renewable energy sectors. Kazakhstan's diplomatic position has been reiterated consistently. In November 2023, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reaffirmed that the only sustainable solution to the conflict lies in the creation of two sovereign states. Amid intensified hostilities in October 2023, Israel imposed a blockade on Gaza. At that time, 76...

Afghanistan

Clashes on Afghan-Pakistani Border Hinder Central Asian Trade Hopes

A recent surge in border fighting between Pakistan and Afghanistan is a reminder that Central Asian prospects for developing trade and energy networks through both those countries rest on fragile hopes for long-term security in the region. Some of the worst clashes since the Taliban took power again in Afghanistan in 2021 appeared to have tapered off by Sunday. While both sides have professed their openness to dialogue, there was little sign of a sustained move to address grievances that have simmered for many years. On Sunday, Pakistan accused Afghanistan of “unwarranted aggression” and said it had repulsed attacks by the Afghan Taliban and other armed groups at the border, inflicting heavy losses. On Saturday night, Afghanistan’s Ministry of National Defense said its military had conducted a “successful retaliatory operation” against Pakistani security forces following Pakistani ground incursions and airstrikes on Afghan soil. The conflicting claims were difficult to verify. But the Afghan ministry said its military operation had ended, signaling that it did not intend to prolong this round of fighting. Pakistan, which closed border crossings, said it wanted good relations with its neighbor. The clashes come as Central Asian countries seek to diversify trade routes, looking to Afghanistan as a path to ferry goods to Pakistani seaports and onward to the Indian Ocean. Such a route offers an alternative to more traditional corridors that were disrupted after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. But projects such as the Trans-Afghan railway, which is awaiting a feasibility study, depend on a stable political environment in a part of the world that is also prone to conflict. The TAPI natural gas pipeline project, which would connect Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, is also vulnerable to regional instability. Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visited Pakistan’s chief rival, India, on October 9, just before the weekend escalation of border clashes.

Central Asia-Russia Summit

Russia Seeks to Reassert Role at Central Asia Summit, but Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Push Their Own Agendas

The second Central Asia-Russia summit, held ahead of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) leaders’ meeting, reaffirmed the Kremlin’s continued intent to assert influence over the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin used the platform not only to signal discontent with the pace of economic integration but also to critique the Central Asian republics for what he portrayed as insufficient engagement in bilateral trade. Despite growing ties between Central Asian states and external partners, exemplified by the “C5+1” dialogue format that includes major powers such as the U.S. and China, Putin made clear that Russia does not view its influence in the region as diminished. Opening the summit, Putin took a veiled swipe at the “C5+1” initiative, which has gained traction in recent years. “I am in constant contact with each of the Central Asian presidents,” he said, before adding, “But I am sure that this multilateral format of communication is also very useful and has its obvious ‘added value’, so to speak.” By “added value,” the Russian leader appeared to suggest that multilateral engagement enables Central Asian states to present a more unified front in foreign negotiations, an approach that complicates Moscow’s ability to exert influence through bilateral channels. Putin also expressed dissatisfaction with the current levels of mutual trade and Russian investment in the region. While acknowledging that trade between Russia and Central Asia had surpassed $45 billion, he pointedly compared this figure to trade with Belarus, which exceeds $50 billion despite its far smaller population. “Our trade turnover with Belarus exceeds $50 billion. Let me remind you that Belarus has a population of 10 million. Uzbekistan already has nearly 40 million, Tajikistan over 10 million, and Kazakhstan more than 20 million. Can you imagine what a colossal resource this is?” Putin said. “This means there are strong prospects for expanding our economic relations.” Putin described Russia’s current $20 billion in regional investments as inadequate and called for increased engagement, but also tempered expectations surrounding major infrastructure and logistics projects championed by Astana and Tashkent, while positioning Russia as a central player in their development. He proposed integrating existing North-South and East-West corridors into a unified Eurasian logistics network supported by digital and transport services. “This will allow us to significantly increase international transport volumes through our common region,” Putin said. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev responded directly, updating figures presented by Putin and reaffirming Kazakhstan’s commitment to regional integration. He noted that Russia’s total trade with Central Asia exceeded $50 billion in 2024, with $28 billion in trade between Russia and Kazakhstan alone. Tokayev emphasized the strategic importance of transport cooperation with Russia, stating that “Russia is a key gateway for the region’s countries to global markets. Therefore, cooperation in the transport and logistics sector is a matter of heightened strategic importance.” [caption id="attachment_37343" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Image: Akorda.kz[/caption] Tokayev outlined Kazakhstan’s existing transport infrastructure, eleven international corridors, including five rail and six road routes, that carry about 85% of land freight between Asia and Europe. Over 15 years, Kazakhstan has...

Labor Migration

Kazakhstan Labor Migration Report Shows Most Citizens Working in Russia

The Ministry of Labor and Social Protection has released updated data on the number of Kazakh citizens working abroad. According to the ministry, 126,000 citizens are currently employed outside the country, which has a population of more than 20 million. The vast majority, over 80%, have found work in neighboring Russia. The figures were shared by First Deputy Minister of Labor and Social Protection Askarbek Yertayev during a briefing with journalists on the sidelines of a Senate meeting. Of the 126,000 citizens working abroad, 102,000 are employed in Russia, 15,000 in South Korea, and approximately 2,000 in the United Kingdom and European Union member states. Yertayev noted that Kazakhstan has yet to finalize bilateral labor agreements with all countries where its citizens are working. “In particular, an agreement with South Korea is still under discussion, we have been negotiating for two years. Talks were paused due to the domestic political situation there,” Yertayev said, referring to the ongoing standoff between South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and the country’s parliament. “Negotiations resumed this fall, and we plan to continue them, as 11,000 of the 15,000 Kazakh citizens in South Korea are working illegally. Measures must be taken, but the Korean side has several conditions, including that Kazakhstan address the issue of its undocumented migrants,” he added. Seoul has requested a “road map” from Kazakhstan to address the problem of illegal labor migration. The document is expected to include mechanisms to prevent undocumented employment. Yertayev expressed confidence that an agreement would be reached before the end of the year. He noted that legal employment in South Korea would allow Kazakh workers to access higher wages and social protections, including healthcare and insurance. “Currently, our citizens in South Korea who are working illegally cannot even send their earnings back home: banks refuse to process the transfers, forcing them to rely on informal channels, which often leads to fraud,” the deputy minister said. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakh authorities have also intensified domestic efforts to formalize the labor market by cracking down on employers who pay “gray” wages, off-the-books income that evades taxes and social contributions.