Kazakhstan Business & Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Caspian Sea Middle Corridor

Shrinking Caspian Sea Raises the Cost of the Middle Corridor

The falling level of the Caspian Sea is becoming an economic problem for the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), or Middle Corridor. Kazakhstan and other countries in the region are expanding ports and counting on growing freight traffic between China and Europe, but shallower waters are already forcing vessels to reduce their loads and ports to spend tens of millions of dollars on dredging and berth reconstruction. The scale of the problem was illustrated on September 8 by Alakbar Azizli, Director of Sustainability and Emissions Management at Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company (ASCO). Speaking at Baku Climate Action Week, he said one of the company’s ferries can now carry only 80% of a full cargo load from Kazakhstan. “This means 20% less cargo is transported,” Azizli said. According to him, vessels face similar restrictions in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan’s Port of Alat. For now, the necessary depths are being maintained through dredging. But there are limits to how much dredging can be done around berths without risking damage to the structures. If the sea continues to retreat, Azizli said ports may eventually have to extend their berths so vessels can reach them at lower water levels. Vessels Are Losing Part of Their Cargo Capacity The Caspian is one of the most complex sections of the Middle Corridor. Freight from China travels by rail through Kazakhstan, is transferred to vessels at Aktau or Kuryk, crosses the sea to Azerbaijan, and is then transferred back onto rail. Every transfer adds cost and time. Falling sea levels introduce an additional restriction: vessel draft, or how deep a loaded vessel sits in the water. According to the Caspian Policy Center, some vessels on the Caspian can now be loaded to only 75–80% of capacity. At Aktau, re-berthing a grain vessel can cost around $2,200, while annual dredging expenses have been estimated at roughly $880,000. A 20% reduction in cargo load means more voyages are needed to move the same volume of goods. Fuel, crew, and port-handling costs increase, while the effective capacity of the fleet declines. The problem is emerging just as traffic along the corridor is expanding rapidly. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Middle Corridor has gained additional importance as a China-Europe route that bypasses Russia. Freight volumes on the TITR increased from less than 1 million tons annually at the beginning of the decade to more than 4.5 million tons in 2024. Kazakhstan plans to raise the corridor’s capacity to 10 million tons a year by 2028. In the first five months of 2026, container traffic between China and Europe along the route increased by another 30%. Growing freight volumes require new terminals, rail capacity, and vessels. At the same time, part of the investment has to be diverted simply to maintain existing fleet access to ports. Aktau and Kuryk Deepen Their Waters Large-scale dredging has already been completed at Kuryk. More than 1.7 million cubic meters of soil were removed from the port waters, turning basin, and access channel, increasing the...

Gas

Gazprom Central Asia Gas Supplies Rise Nearly 70% in 2026

Gazprom has increased gas supplies to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan by nearly 70% so far in 2026. Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller announced the increase on September 4 but did not disclose how much gas each of the three countries received. The most significant changes are taking place in Uzbekistan. Until recently, the country was a major gas producer and exporter, but in 2023 it became a net importer. Since then, Tashkent has increased purchases from Russia and Turkmenistan. In 2025, Gazprom supplied Uzbekistan with 6.48 billion cubic meters of gas, 15% more than a year earlier. Russian gas reaches the country through Kazakhstan via the Central Asia–Center pipeline system. Built during the Soviet era to carry Central Asian gas northward to Russia, part of the system now operates in reverse. Supplies continue to rise. The International Energy Agency expects Russian gas supplies to Uzbekistan to exceed ten billion cubic meters in 2026. The reason is evident in Uzbekistan’s own production figures. The country produced 18.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas in the first half of 2026, down 16.4% from a year earlier. Gas imports reached $971.7 million. Russia and Turkmenistan remain the main external suppliers. Tashkent is trying to reverse the decline. Uzbekneftegaz has ordered new wells to be brought online and 16 existing wells to be overhauled, measures intended to add a combined 4.36 million cubic meters per day to production. Kazakhstan is in a different position. It produced 68.2 billion cubic meters of gas in 2025, but marketable gas production was only 27.4 billion cubic meters. Kazakhstan has also become the transit link between Russia and Uzbekistan. Part of the increase reported by Gazprom also reflects direct supplies to Kazakhstan, although the company has not provided a breakdown among the three countries. Kyrgyzstan’s gas market is considerably smaller. The country consumes around 500 million cubic meters a year and is more dependent on imports. Bishkek has signed long-term agreements with Gazprom for gas supplies to the planned CHP-2 and Bishkekselmash power plants through 2040. The increase in Central Asian sales comes as the geography of Russian gas exports has changed dramatically. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sharp decline in deliveries to Europe, Gazprom has been looking for more customers to the east and south. China remains Russia’s largest gas market outside the former Soviet Union. Russia expects to supply China with around 50 billion cubic meters of gas this year. Power of Siberia is already operating at around its design capacity, while another route from Russia’s Far East is scheduled to begin deliveries in January 2027. Moscow and Beijing are also discussing a major new pipeline from Western Siberia through Mongolia. Central Asia, however, is not becoming an exclusively Russian gas market. Turkmenistan remains a major supplier to Uzbekistan, while Uzbekistan in particular is rapidly adding solar and wind generation, helping limit gas demand for power generation. But the direction of gas flows has already changed in a literal sense. The Central Asia–Center system was once built to carry...

Fiscal Policy

Kazakhstan Bond Market Proposed Tax Changes Aim to Attract $3 Billion in Foreign Investment

Kazakhstan is preparing tax changes to make it easier for foreign investors to trade bonds issued by quasi-state entities through international depository systems. The authorities estimate potential foreign investment in the market at around $3 billion. The problem currently arises after the securities have been purchased. If a foreign investor sells the bonds on a Kazakh stock exchange, capital gains are exempt from tax. But if the same securities are sold outside a local exchange, that exemption does not apply. For international investors, this is an important distinction. Kazakhstan wants to make quasi-state sector bonds accessible through Euroclear and Clearstream, international central securities depositories and settlement systems through which major banks and funds hold and trade securities from different countries. Transactions within these systems can take place without going through a Kazakh stock exchange. National Bank Deputy Governor Aliya Moldabekova said capital gains from non-residents’ sales of quasi-public sector bonds on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange were exempt from tax. However, the legislation did not provide the same treatment when those securities were subsequently sold outside Kazakhstani stock exchanges. The authorities propose eliminating this discrepancy by extending the tax exemption to relevant off-exchange transactions. The approach was backed on September 7 by the government’s Project Office for the implementation of the Tax Code. The Ministry of National Economy and the Ministry of Finance will now work on the necessary legislative amendments. This is a sizable market. There are currently around 17.6 trillion tenge, or roughly $39 billion, in outstanding tenge-denominated bonds issued by Kazakhstan’s quasi-public sector entities. The government estimates potential demand from non-residents at around 1.4 trillion tenge, or about $3 billion. The calculation is based on the average 8.1% share held by non-residents in Kazakhstan’s government securities market during the first eight months of 2026. It is a benchmark rather than a forecast of actual capital inflows. Expanding access to quasi-state company bonds is part of a broader overhaul of Kazakhstan’s domestic debt market. In April, the National Bank announced that Euroclear had begun a project to make Kazakhstan’s government bonds eligible for settlement through its international system. A direct link with Euroclear is planned for 2027, while an international link with Clearstream is already operating. A primary dealer system for government securities also began operating on May 4. Five banks were appointed to support demand and provide two-way quotes for selected securities on the secondary market. The National Bank expects the system to broaden the investor base and help create conditions for Kazakhstan’s government bonds eventually to be included in global debt benchmarks, including the JPMorgan GBI-EM Index. Major Kazakh borrowers, meanwhile, are already looking beyond the domestic market for financing. In August, KazMunayGas raised 3.5 billion yuan, around $490 million, through a yuan-denominated bond offering. The final issue was nearly three times the size of the company’s first yuan bond offering a year earlier.

Labor Force

Kazakhstan’s Factory Expansion Faces a Skilled Labor Shortage

Kazakhstan plans to create tens of thousands of jobs at new factories, but lacks qualified workers. Around 200 industrial projects are scheduled to be launched in 2026, followed by new metallurgical, engineering, and chemical plants. The facilities can be built within a few years, but training the staff needed to operate them may take significantly longer. A 2025 estimate suggested the shortage of qualified workers in manufacturing, construction, and engineering-related fields could exceed 100,000. The projects planned for 2026 are worth a combined 1.7 trillion tenge, or approximately $3.6 billion, and are expected to create around 18,000 permanent jobs. The next wave of projects will require several thousand more workers. Seven new projects in ferrous metallurgy are planned for 2027–2028, creating more than 3,500 permanent jobs. Another six facilities in non-ferrous metallurgy are planned for the same period, creating more than 800 jobs. Behind those plans are facilities producing steel and ferroalloys, copper and aluminum products, trucks, road machinery, and chemicals. Kazakhstan is seeking to process more of its own raw materials domestically and export products with higher added value. For an economy that remains heavily dependent on oil, metals, and other commodities, the success of that policy will shape its prospects for further diversification. The Asian Development Bank has identified higher productivity and stronger human capital as important conditions for that transition. In March 2025, National Engineering Academy President Bakytzhan Zhumagulov said the shortage of qualified workers in construction, manufacturing, engineering and technical fields could exceed 100,000. Meanwhile, in April 2026, Science and Higher Education Minister Sayasat Nurbek warned that the gap between the specialists being trained and the needs of the economy was widening. The Ministry of Labor has pointed to another imbalance: on the Enbek electronic labor exchange in May 2025, demand for workers with mid-level qualifications exceeded supply by 16%. Tomorrow’s Factories and Today’s Labor Market The government is already trying to reshape vocational education. In 2025, 70% of state-funded college places were allocated to technical fields, including mechanical engineering, transportation, energy, IT, and construction. Kazakhstan operates a system for forecasting the economy’s labor needs, estimating demand by occupation, region, and industry several years ahead, taking into account both newly created jobs and the need to replace people leaving the labor market. These projections are intended to guide state-funded education and vocational training. The potential scale of future demand is substantial. A forecast published in 2025 estimated that the economy would require around 1.6 million workers over the following six years, including about 900,000 people with technical and vocational education. Demand for workers in skilled trades alone was estimated at more than 400,000. Construction, agriculture, and manufacturing were expected to be among the main employers. Yet the current labor market still reflects a fairly traditional pattern. Kazakhstan has a short-term vocational training program for unemployed people. Employers submit requests for the specialists they need and guarantee employment, while the state pays for their training. More than 11 billion tenge, approximately $23 million, was allocated to the...

City Planning

Almaty and Astana Set to Retain Central Asia’s Economic Lead

Almaty long combined Kazakhstan’s political and commercial functions and established itself as Central Asia’s leading business center. After Astana became Kazakhstan’s capital, the two cities developed increasingly complementary roles, with Almaty remaining the region’s largest business and financial hub while Astana accumulated political, institutional and corporate weight. Kazakhstan’s updated figures put Astana’s growth at about 10% and Almaty’s at about 5%. Together, the two cities generated roughly $107 billion in 2025. Together, they have become a two-city engine anchoring much of Central Asia’s commerce. Almaty and Astana benefit from an economic scale unmatched elsewhere in Central Asia. Kazakhstan alone accounts for more than half of the region’s GDP and roughly two-thirds of its inward FDI stock, according to TCA’s Central Asia Balance Sheet. That scale helps generate the fiscal resources needed to build and maintain the municipal infrastructure that supports business activity. Kazakhstan also has Central Asia’s most developed capital markets. The combination of the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) in Almaty and the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) and Astana International Exchange (AIX) in Astana gives companies access to equity, debt, institutional investors and financial infrastructure at a scale no other market in the region currently matches. Kazakhstan is also the only Central Asian country with an investment-grade sovereign rating, lowering the country-risk premium and helping reduce financing costs for companies and projects relative to lower-rated regional markets. These advantages have been reinforced over decades. Almaty and Astana have long served as regional bases for major global companies, creating an established ecosystem of corporate management, finance, professional services and skilled labor. That track record, in turn, strengthens their ability to attract further investment and regional headquarters. Tashkent and Bishkek are also growing rapidly Then there is Tashkent. Uzbekistan’s political and commercial capital had an economy of about $29 billion in 2025, about 40% the size of Almaty’s and three-quarters that of Astana. Tashkent has also experienced rapid growth, with its economy growing by 11.3% in real terms in 2025, according to preliminary national figures. Tashkent benefits from Uzbekistan’s demographic scale. The country’s population is almost twice Kazakhstan’s, giving its capital access to a much larger domestic market and labor pool. But that scale also raises the need for sustained job creation and continued investment in housing and infrastructure. If productivity and investment fail to keep pace with population growth, the demographic advantage could increasingly act as a constraint rather than help Tashkent close the gap with Almaty and Astana. Almaty and Astana, meanwhile, generate substantially more economic output per resident. In 2025, Gross Regional Product (GRP) per capita was approximately $29,900 in Almaty and $23,700 in Astana, compared with about $9,300 in Tashkent, using reporting-year average exchange rates. These figures measure output per resident, not labor productivity, household income or living standards. Like Tashkent, Bishkek combines the roles of political capital and principal economic center. On the reporting years used here, however, its economy is only about 30% as large. Its economy grew by 15.8% in 2024, according to Kyrgyzstan’s...

Tourism

Kazakhstan Tourism Investment Tops $4.8 Billion as Arrivals Rise

Kazakhstan recorded more than $4.8 billion in tourism investment in 2024 and 2025. Current projects include new hotels and mountain resorts, while the government is upgrading transport links to tourist areas as foreign visitor numbers rise. Investment in tourism reached 947.5 billion tenge ($2.08 billion) in 2024 and rose to 1.26 trillion tenge ($2.75 billion) in 2025. Kazakhstan has 328 tourism projects under way worth about 1.3 trillion tenge, or roughly $2.85 billion. These include new Hilton and Mandarin Oriental properties, as well as an expansion of the year-round Oi-Qaragai mountain resort near Almaty. The government expects the projects to create 25 new international-standard hotel complexes and around 10,000 permanent jobs. Revenue from hotels and other registered accommodation facilities also rose from 229 billion tenge, or roughly $500 million, in 2023 to 350.6 billion tenge, or about $770 million, in 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, the figure rose 13.9% year-on-year. Kazakhstan is also trying to extend the tourism season through year-round mountain tourism and a growing events calendar. Kazakhstan received 15.7 million foreign visitors in 2025, of whom authorities classified 11.1 million as tourists because they stayed in the country for more than one day. Spending by foreign visitors in the country totaled about $2.9 billion. Around 1.43 million foreign visitors used registered hotels and other accommodation facilities, although the figure excludes those staying with relatives or friends and those using unregistered accommodation. From Football to the World Noman Games The 2025 UEFA Champions League match between Almaty’s Kairat and Real Madrid attracted more than 5,000 foreign visitors to the city. Fans arrived from China, India, Russia, Spain, the United Kingdom, Japan, and other countries. Kairat reached the league phase of the Champions League in 2025/26 but was eliminated in the third qualifying round this season, making the Real Madrid match a one-time attraction rather than a recurring source of visitors. Concerts offer a more repeatable version of the same model, with Jennifer Lopez and the Backstreet Boys performing in Almaty in 2025 and Deep Purple, Megadeth, Ricky Martin, and Enrique Iglesias following in 2026. Cirque du Soleil performances and major music festivals have also become part of the city’s events calendar. According to Mastercard, spending on international cards in Almaty during the Kairat-Real Madrid match rose 16% compared with the average for the two weeks before and after the event. It rose 11% during the Jennifer Lopez concert and 3% during the Backstreet Boys concert, while spending on Mastercard cards issued in Spain rose 81% during the Real Madrid match. The Jennifer Lopez concert attracted around 7,000 foreign spectators from 35 countries. Authorities estimated their direct tourism spending at more than 5 billion tenge, or roughly $11 million. The fifth World Nomad Games in Astana in 2024 attracted international visitors and extensive global coverage. Organized tours from the United Kingdom had sold out before the competition opened. Neighboring Countries Still Dominate Arrivals In the first half of 2026, Kazakhstan reported around 7 million foreign arrivals. The largest...