Our People > Aliya Haidar

Aliya Haidar

Journalist

Aliya Haidar is a Kazakhstani journalist. She started her career in 1998, and has worked in the country's leading regional and national publications ever since.

Articles

Domestic Violence

Domestic Abuse Back in Spotlight After Self-Immolation, Hostage Cases in Kazakhstan

Two shocking incidents at Almaty airport this year, one involving self-immolation, the other a hostage-taking, have once again led to discussions about gender issues in Kazakhstan. Two Tragedies at Almaty Airport On August 25, CCTV cameras recorded a man pouring gasoline over himself at an airport ticket counter after a "personal conflict with his common-law wife," before setting himself alight. Police extinguished the fire, but the man remains in critical condition in hospital, according to the Transport Police Department. The airport chief of police stated that "according to preliminary data, the man committed this offense because of domestic relations." Although internet platforms have been rife with speculation about what lies behind the incident, no further information is currently available. Earlier, on March 7, Mashrapbek Baratov assaulted a female security officer at the same airport, dragging her by the hair and threatening her with a knife while claiming to be carrying a bomb. He was disarmed by a bystander, Musa Abdraim, who was later awarded a medal for bravery by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Baratov, who had a history of violence against women, was sentenced to 11 years in prison in July. The Bishimbayev Case and “Saltanat's Law” These cases reflect a wider pattern of violence against women. The most infamous case involved former Minister of National Economy Kuandyk Bishimbayev, who beat his partner, Saltanat Nukenova, to death in November 2023. The trial, broadcast live, shocked the country and drew international attention. Bishimbayev was sentenced to 24 years in prison in May 2024. The case coincided with the introduction of new legislation, the Law on Ensuring Women’s Rights and Child Safety, signed by Tokayev in April 2024. Publicly dubbed “Saltanat's Law,” it toughened penalties for domestic abusers and marked a turning point in public awareness of gender-based violence. High-profile prosecutions continue. On July 18, former diplomat Saken Mamash was sentenced to six years in prison for psychological and physical abuse of his ex-wife. Progress and Persistent Gaps Officials report cautious progress. State Councilor Yerlan Karin announced in June 2025 that domestic violence reports had dropped by 20.5% year-on-year. Serious domestic crimes fell by nearly one-third, and crimes against minors also declined. Overall, the number of crimes against women has halved in five years. Yet experts warn the problem is far from solved. Kazakhstan still lacks trained police officers, shelters, and support services for victims. Civil society groups stress that legal reforms must be accompanied by education campaigns to challenge entrenched attitudes that relegate women to a secondary role within families. Despite women’s growing participation in business and public life, traditional norms often leave them vulnerable. Many abusers justify violence as a way of “correcting” women who fail to meet domestic expectations. High levels of objectification and sexualization further reinforce inequality. A Continuing Struggle While Saltanat's Law has signaled a strong state response, the Almaty airport tragedies reveal the dangers of ignoring early warning signs of violence. Until legal measures are matched with deeper cultural change and expanded support networks, Kazakhstan’s women remain at...

10 months ago

SCO Summit

Kazakhstan Looks East: What’s at Stake at the SCO Summit in China?

On Saturday, Kazakhstan’s President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, along with other Central Asian leaders, will travel to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. The visit comes amid China’s accelerating influence in the region, highlighting the summit’s growing geopolitical significance. Four Strategic Days in China Tokayev will visit China from August 30 to September 3 at the invitation of President Xi Jinping. High-level talks are planned, during which the two leaders will discuss deepening the Kazakh-Chinese strategic partnership. Tokayev will also attend the SCO Plus summit in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1. On September 2, he will speak at a meeting of the Kazakhstan-China Business Council in Beijing and hold talks with the heads of major Chinese companies. On September 3, he will take part in commemorations marking the 80th anniversary of Victory in World War II. Who Will Attend the Tianjin Summit? This year’s gathering marks the 25th anniversary of the SCO. Leaders from over 20 countries and representatives from ten international organizations are expected to participate. The SCO currently includes ten member states: Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, India, Iran, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Particular attention is focused on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose visit to China will be his first in seven years. Russian President Vladimir Putin also plans to attend. Leaders from Turkey, Malaysia, Indonesia, Mongolia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkmenistan, and several other countries are also expected. According to China’s Foreign Ministry, this will be the largest SCO summit since the organization’s inception. Why Tianjin? A Strategic Choice Chinese analysts describe Tianjin as a strategic hub for the Belt and Road Initiative. They note its position where sea and land routes converge, the starting point of the China-Mongolia-Russia corridor, and a key link in the New Eurasian Land Bridge connecting China, Central Asia, and Europe. Its advanced infrastructure, experience in hosting international events, and open policies are seen as transforming it into a “super-hub.” Tianjin has long contributed to SCO activities, particularly through the “Lu Ban Workshop” international education initiative. Currently, ten such workshops operate across SCO countries, training skilled technical personnel in fields aligned with labor market demands. Analysts' Perspectives Western analysts quoted by Reuters say the summit will project a message of “Global South solidarity” and offer Russia an opportunity to achieve a “diplomatic coup” amid ongoing sanctions. “Xi Jinping will want to use the summit to demonstrate how the American-led international order is weakening,” said Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of The China-Global South Project. “It’s a moment to show that all the White House’s efforts since January to counter China, Iran, Russia, and now India have not had the desired impact.” China's Expanding Role in Central Asia On June 16-17, President Xi Jinping visited Kazakhstan, where leaders of the five Central Asian states, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, signed the Astana Declaration at the second China-Central Asia summit. They also concluded an agreement on eternal good-neighborliness, friendship, and cooperation. In total, over 35 memoranda worth more than $17 billion were signed. According...

10 months ago

Endangered Species

“I Came To Pay the Fine”: In Kazakhstan, a Bear Pays an Unexpected Visit to a Government Office

Efforts to protect wildlife in Kazakhstan, particularly rare and endangered species, have begun yielding results. Animals listed in the national Red Book are increasingly venturing into human settlements. While some encounters are harmless or even humorous, others pose real dangers. A Curious Visitor in Serebryansk On August 18, a large brown bear wandered into the central square of Serebryansk, a city in East Kazakhstan. CCTV footage captured the bear approaching the city administration building. The bear had previously been seen on the city’s outskirts in early August, prompting residents to alert the forestry and hunting emergency response team. These teams are typically dispatched to relocate animals in distress or posing threats. However, the inspectors were unable to locate the bear, and it eventually made its way to city hall. Local residents responded with humor, joking on social media that the bear had come to pay a fine or meet the mayor. Despite the levity, city officials issued a serious warning, urging residents to stay indoors after 6 p.m. until the bear could be safely relocated. They also cautioned that feeding the bear or attempting selfies could be fatal. The authorities also reminded the public of basic safety rules in areas inhabited by predators: never approach bear cubs, as their mothers may become aggressive, and do not attempt to run from a bear unless immediate shelter is available. Even well-fed bears can reach speeds of up to 60 km/h. Bear sightings are relatively common in East Kazakhstan, with reports this summer from Ridder, the Sibinsk Lakes area, and the village of Bobrovka in Glubokovsky district. Bears in the Red Book and Beyond Two subspecies of brown bears inhabit Kazakhstan: the Tianshan brown bear, which lives in the Tian Shan and Dzungarian Alatau mountains, and the South Siberian brown bear, found in the Altai region. The Tian Shan brown bear is listed in Kazakhstan’s Red Book of endangered species, while the South Siberian bear is still legally hunted under regulated conditions. According to the Ministry of Ecology, the South Siberian brown bear population rose from 3,265 in 2022 to 3,578 in 2023. Hunting is permitted in limited numbers and only under supervision. The red-listed Tianshan brown bear population remains smaller. As of 2023, experts estimated 500-600 individuals nationwide. In Ile-Alatau National Park, partly located within Almaty city limits, about 70 Tianshan bears were recorded in 2022. The park regularly hosts educational events to raise awareness of the species. Elsewhere, roughly 270 Tianshan brown bears inhabit Kazakhstan’s portion of the Tien Shan, and more than 350 live in the Zhetysu Alatau. Dangerous Neighbors Despite conservation gains, human-bear encounters can end tragically. A tourist in Serebryansk recalled that in 2023, a female bear and her cubs foraged for food in summer cottages, destroying gardens and evading attempts to drive them away. A more serious incident occurred in May 2020 in the Almaty region, when a Russian man was fatally attacked by a bear while returning from a fishing trip. Mistaking a bear cub for...

10 months ago

Education

Kazakhstan Aims to Redefine the Role and Status of Teachers

Kazakhstan is preparing sweeping changes to the role of teachers, aiming to significantly strengthen their legal protections and professional autonomy. The proposals, announced at an educators' conference in August, are being described by experts as revolutionary for the country’s education system. Protecting Teachers' Rights President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev participated in the conference and proposed amendments to the Law on the Status of Teachers to shield educators from non-core responsibilities. “The issue of protecting teachers' rights should always be a priority,” said Tokayev. “Teachers must be exempt from tasks unrelated to their primary duties. Unfortunately, local authorities often grossly violate the law in this regard. The Prosecutor’s Office must take strict action against such violations.” In many post-Soviet countries, it has been common for teachers to be assigned duties unrelated to education. In Kazakhstan, for instance, teachers are often tasked with running polling stations during elections or referendums, ensuring voter turnout, cleaning school premises, organizing community celebrations, and more. Tokayev also spoke out against holding teachers accountable for incidents outside school grounds. “It is inappropriate to immediately punish teachers for any accident involving children,” he stated. “If an incident occurs outside school or due to parental negligence, the teacher should not be held responsible.” He referred to a recent case in the Almaty region, where a graduate died in a fight at a private residence. The school’s principal and teachers were dismissed, but the Ministry of Education later intervened on their behalf. Responsibility Within the School While calling for greater protections, Tokayev also emphasized the critical role of teachers within school walls. He urged educators to take active roles in combating social issues such as drug and gambling addiction, domestic violence, bullying, vandalism, and dependency. Teaching has long been one of Kazakhstan’s least attractive professions due to high workloads and low pay. However, since 2019, the education budget has tripled, 1,200 new schools have opened, and teacher salaries have doubled. More than 500,000 teachers now receive performance-based bonuses. Fighting Dependency and Exploitation Kazakh political analyst Marat Shibutov emphasized the importance of ending the exploitation of teachers and addressing broader societal issues such as dependency. “At a meeting with teachers, the president spoke out against parasitism, which has become widespread, especially in rural areas, where social benefits discourage work and promote idleness,” Shibutov said. “Some families even avoid treating disabled children to retain their benefits.” He added that around 60 children had fallen from windows in Astana since the start of the year, yet the blame is often shifted to the state rather than to parents, who bear responsibility for safety at home. “Dependency is more than just a lifestyle, it’s an ideology of aggressive laziness eating away at youth,” he said. On the issue of non-core assignments, Shibutov remarked: “It’s time to get rid of Soviet relics, teachers are not free labor or child supervisors”. A Remedy in Mathematics Political analyst Gaziz Abishev called for deeper educational reforms to address the psychological and cognitive vulnerabilities of young people in the digital age....

10 months ago

Kazakhstan Pushes Nationwide AI Rollout Amid Cybersecurity Risks and Skills Shortages

Kazakhstan is preparing to deploy artificial intelligence (AI) on a large scale across the economy, government, and education. However, experts warn that without transparency, constant auditing, and stronger oversight, the program risks falling short of its goals. Slow Progress and Security Risks A meeting on AI development was held in Astana on August 11, attended by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, and senior government officials. According to Tokayev, Kazakhstan’s main objective is to become a digital hub in Eurasia, but sluggish implementation, weak control mechanisms, and a shortage of qualified personnel are stymying progress. “I have already spoken about accelerating the creation of a unified national digital ecosystem," Tokayev said. "I have instructed that the necessary infrastructure be prepared, a legislative framework and data collection system be developed, and work begin on the introduction of artificial intelligence. However, the progress in implementing these instructions is unsatisfactory.” Cybersecurity is the priority, as current systems remain highly vulnerable. Since the start of the year, more than 40 major data breaches have occurred. The largest incident, in June, leaked 16.3 million records containing the personal data of Kazakh citizens, out of a population of 20 million, into the public domain. This was confirmed by Olzhas Satiev, president of the Center for Analysis and Investigation of Cyber Attacks (CARCA). By the end of the year, AI is set to be incorporated into e-government and Smart City projects, with a particular emphasis on the AI-Sana program, which aims to develop human capital and transform universities into research centers. The government is also responsible for introducing AI into state agencies and national companies, as well as drafting new legislation regulating AI. There are also plans to migrate all state and quasi-state digital systems onto a single sovereign platform. The national digital platform, QazTech, entered into commercial operation in July. Partnerships With China Kazakhstan intends to work closely with China on new digital products. Tokayev has pointed to China’s DeepSeek platform, developed for $6.5 million, far below the cost of Western equivalents, as an example to learn from. In February 2025, the National Academy of Sciences signed a memorandum with Zhejiang University of Technology, establishing an International Joint Laboratory for Spatio-Temporal Artificial Intelligence and Sustainable Development. The lab will focus on energy and climatology projects. In August, Tokayev expressed support for China’s proposal to create a World Organization for AI Development. Concerns Over Oversight and Staffing Independent analysts believe Kazakhstan has the potential to integrate AI into many aspects of daily life, given its relatively high level of digitalization. However, they warn of the risk of large sums being wasted on ineffective projects. Economist Rassul Rysmambetov has called for a full audit of more than a thousand large state IT systems to identify ineffective platforms. He also highlighted the shortage of skilled personnel: “There is too much technology, but not enough staff. Investments and start-ups sound like good slogans, but where are the professionals? I have often seen IT specialists forced into other jobs due to...

10 months ago

War in Ukraine

Astana’s Delicate Role in Ukraine Peace Efforts

Despite its close economic, historical, and cultural ties with Russia, Kazakhstan has maintained constructive relations with Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. That diplomatic balance was on display again on August 10, when President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to discuss prospects for a peace agreement. According to official sources, Ukraine initiated the call, and Tokayev reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s “unconditional interest in establishing a lasting peace in Ukraine based on the principles of international law.” Astana supports a “joint search for a peaceful solution on a fair basis” and consistently advocates compliance with the UN Charter, the inviolability of borders, and the territorial integrity of sovereign states. Kazakh political analyst Marat Shibutov has suggested that Zelenskyy is seeking support ahead of a potential shift in the confrontation with Russia. “On the eve of the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska, Zelenskyy is calling the leaders of other countries. He is seeking not only to secure better conditions for Ukraine, but also to understand what his personal political future holds. Yesterday, he spoke with Macron, Meloni, Tusk, Stubb, von der Leyen, Sánchez, and Starmer. Today, he spoke with Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson, Ilham Aliyev, and President Tokayev,” Shibutov wrote. According to Shibutov, Zelenskyy emphasized European support for Ukraine’s participation in negotiations. However, Tokayev, an experienced diplomat, may have cautioned that the outcome of the U.S.-Russia talks is unpredictable. “They depend on domestic politics,” Shibutov noted. “In the U.S., Trump’s electorate wants an end to the war and military aid to Ukraine halted, while many in Russia want Ukraine’s complete defeat and elimination as a state. In such conditions, Ukraine will have to make concessions. Territorial integrity is good, but not at the cost of the state’s very existence.” The official statement from Tokayev’s office cited the old proverb: “A bad peace is better than a good war.” Support During the War On March 6, 2022, shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion, an anti-war rally was held in Almaty. Participants carried Ukrainian flags, blue-and-yellow balloons, and anti-war posters. That same month, Kazakhstan sent humanitarian aid worth more than $2 million, including 25 types of medical supplies weighing 82 tons. Volunteers also collected food, hygiene products, medicines, and animal feed worth 150 million tenge. Kazakh entrepreneurs delivered aid and generators to Ukrainian hospitals. In the summer of 2023, a Kazakh company helped repair a medical facility in Mykolaiv damaged by Russian shelling. The installation of “yurts of indestructibility” in war-affected Ukrainian cities also gained wide recognition. In Kyiv alone, more than 100,000 people visited such a yurt to charge phones, warm up, and enjoy free Kazakh national dishes. Only According to the UN Charter Kazakhstan’s deep economic ties with Russia include oil and gas transit, gasoline supplies, and imports of food and medicine. The two countries share the world’s second-longest land border, spanning 4,750 miles. Cooperation on transboundary rivers is also critical. In contrast, Kazakhstan’s links with Ukraine are modest, consisting largely of historical ties and family connections. Pre-war trade...

10 months ago

Gender Equality

From Kyz Kuu to Niqabs: Why Kazakh Women Face a Crisis of Values

Before the 1917 revolution, Kazakh women enjoyed significant freedoms due to their nomadic lifestyle. Living in the remote steppe, women were responsible not only for managing livestock and households but also for defending their families and property, often with weapons in hand. The Soviet era formalized gender equality, enabling women to become leading producers, scientists, decorated soldiers, and politicians. Today, however, these traditions face erosion from two opposing forces: rising consumerism and a growing Arab-influenced Islamization. According to Kazakh political scientist Zamir Karazhanov, women in Kazakhstan are struggling to find their place amid an expanding spiritual vacuum and polarized ideologies. A Reversal in Feminism A centuries-old game, Kyz Kuu (“Catch the Girl”), exemplifies the historical freedom of nomadic Kazakh women. The game, rooted in equestrian tradition, involved a female rider gaining a head start before being pursued by a young horseman. If he caught her and took her ribbon, he could propose marriage. If not, the woman would chase and whip the suitor with a kamcha (whip) in front of spectators, a demonstration of both female skill and independence. During the Soviet period, the roles of Aliya Moldovan and Manshuk Mametova both posthumously named Heroes of the Soviet Union in World War II, underscored female empowerment in Kazakhstan. In contrast, contemporary Kazakhstan is embroiled in a heated debate over the niqab, a face-covering garment not traditionally worn by Kazakhs. This shift has sparked national concern, culminating in the passage of a June 2025 law banning face coverings in public places. Declining Representation and Shifting Priorities Women’s representation in politics and governance has deteriorated, particularly in Kazakhstan’s southern and western regions. Despite officially favorable statistics, political scientist Zamira Karazhanova argues that the state practices only “artificial equality.” Party-imposed quotas for women and youth offer a superficial solution without addressing the systemic barriers to real empowerment. “To achieve gender equality, we must create genuine opportunities for women to participate in politics and civil service,” said Karazhanova. Karazhanov notes a broader cultural shift, with young women increasingly drawn to the lifestyle of tokal, unofficial second wives of wealthy men. These figures flaunt luxury and affluence on social media, eclipsing the appeal of education and career development. “The pursuit of wealthy husbands is becoming a kind of ideology,” Karazhanov said. “Many young women are growing up with no interest in professional growth. They have entirely different ideals.” The Rise of Foreign Influences “Islam in Kazakhstan is becoming Arabized,” Karazhanov stated. “This affects not only how women dress, but also how they are perceived and perceive themselves. Religion is becoming a key part of national identity, even if some believers visit the mosque on Fridays and bars on Saturdays.” Following the collapse of the USSR, Kazakhstan experienced a spiritual vacuum, filled rapidly by imported religious ideologies. Many religious leaders were educated in Arab countries or Afghanistan, bringing with them foreign dogmas that were alien to traditional Kazakh Islam. Karazhanov stressed that Arabization and radicalization are not confined to Kazakhstan, but also affect Russia, Turkey, and...

10 months ago

Fuel Exports

Central Asia Grapples with Fuel Shortages Amid Market Volatility

The heavy reliance on fuel imports from Russia is placing Central Asian countries in an increasingly precarious position. Disparities in pricing and exchange rates are driving a surge in illicit fuel resales, exacerbating supply challenges across the region. Gasoline and diesel prices continue to climb, and shortages are being felt widely. This dependence on Russian supplies is particularly concerning following U.S. President Donald Trump's ultimatum to Moscow: end the war in Ukraine within ten days or face 100% tariffs on countries trading oil and petroleum products with Russia. The tariffs could take effect as early as next week, placing Central Asian states in a hugely vulnerable position. Kazakhstan: Shortages and Shadow Exports In early July, motorists across Kazakhstan reported widespread shortages of AI-95 gasoline, particularly along the Karaganda-Balkhash and Astana-Pavlodar highways and in the country’s western regions. Some filling stations restricted purchases of AI-95 to 30 liters per vehicle, and AI-98 was only available via coupons. The Ministry of Energy attributed the shortages to increased tourist and transit traffic. Price caps on gasoline were lifted in January 2025, after which they began to steadily rise. According to the Ministry of Energy, fuel in Kazakhstan remains significantly cheaper than in other Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member states, prompting the government to gradually align prices with the regional market. Forecasts suggest gasoline prices could rise by up to 50%, further fueling inflation and impacting all sectors of the economy. The government argues that maintaining artificially low fuel prices would require substantial budget subsidies. The resulting price differentials have made illegal fuel exports more profitable, aggravating domestic shortages. To combat speculation, Kazakhstan imposed a ban in January on exporting gasoline and diesel by road and rail. Despite the country’s ongoing efforts to expand domestic production, Kazakhstan is expected to import substantial volumes from Russia in 2025: 285,000 tons of motor gasoline, 300,000 tons of jet fuel, 450,000 tons of diesel, and 500,000 tons of bitumen. Experts caution that significant increases in domestic output may not materialize until 2030. Russia’s decision on July 28 to tighten its gasoline export ban to include large producers is further complicating the situation. The embargo, introduced amid record-high exchange prices, is expected to last through August. Nevertheless, Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov insists the Russian export restrictions will not affect Kazakhstan, citing a standing intergovernmental agreement that exempts the country from such measures. The Rise of Grey Market Schemes Despite official reassurances, fuel prices continue to rise. Energy expert Olzhas Baidildinov warns of a growing shadow market, driven in part by the weakening of the Kazakh tenge against the Russian ruble. With the exchange rate at 6.6 tenge per ruble, the economic incentive for illicit exports from Kazakhstan remains strong. Baidildinov predicts further shortages by the autumn if this trend continues. Kyrgyzstan: Growing Dependence Kyrgyzstan, which has faced repeated fuel shortages in recent years, has seen prices rise sharply. Over the past decade, the cost of AI-92 has climbed by 52%, AI-95 by 57%, and diesel, used in agriculture...

11 months ago

economic slowdown

Kazakhstan Faces Turbulence as External Pressures Mount

Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest economy, is facing a convergence of pressures that President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and National Bank Chairman Timur Suleimenov must now manage simultaneously, from currency depreciation and geopolitical turmoil to volatile oil markets and contentious fiscal reforms, that are testing its economic resilience. Geopolitical Pressures Escalate By mid-2025, it had become increasingly apparent that Kazakhstan has limited capacity to influence global geopolitical dynamics. Like many “middle powers,” the country must adapt to the actions of larger states, whose unpredictable decisions continue to exert downward pressure on the tenge and fuel inflation. On July 28, U.S. President Donald Trump shortened a previously issued 50-day ultimatum to Russian President Vladimir Putin, giving him just 10-12 days to agree to a peace deal with Ukraine. This development added to the mounting uncertainty already impacting Kazakhstan’s economy. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, analysts warn that Trump’s secondary sanctions, 100% tariffs targeting Russia’s trading partners, could potentially be extended to Kazakhstan and other Central Asian economies. Though Kazakhstan is not among Russia’s largest trading partners, its economic links to Moscow are still substantial. The country relies heavily on imports from Russia, including electricity, gasoline, food, and medicine. Adding to the pressure, on July 7, Trump announced a 25% tariff on Kazakhstani goods, effective August 1, 2025. While $1.8 billion of Kazakhstan’s $2 billion in exports to the U.S. (mostly oil, metals, and rare earth elements) are exempt, the move has nonetheless rattled Kazakhstan’s already fragile industrial sector and spooked investors. Oil price instability, largely driven by Western efforts to curtail Russian exports, also poses a major risk. Oil revenues make up the bulk of Kazakhstan’s export income and are a key source of budget financing. Further complicating matters, new Russian restrictions require foreign tankers to obtain Federal Security Service (FSB) approval before accessing key Black Sea ports. This affects the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which handles more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports and is partly owned by U.S. firms Chevron and ExxonMobil. Reuters estimates the new rules could disrupt over 2% of global oil supply. Tenge Hits Historic Low As of July 28, the tenge dropped to a record low of 544.87 per U.S. dollar. The depreciation is driving up the cost of imports, an acute problem in an import-dependent economy, pushing more families to spend over half their income on food. Companies with debt obligations in U.S. dollars are also seeing their liabilities grow, worsening the investment climate and prompting firms to scale back on planned expansions. Central Bank Warns Against Intervention National Bank Chairman Timur Suleimenov cautioned against government intervention in currency markets, a position supported by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who has repeatedly cautioned against short-term administrative measures that can destabilize the economy. Suleimenov noted that past attempts to control the exchange rate led to abrupt and damaging devaluations. Suleimenov attributed the tenge’s vulnerability to rising fiscal injections and an 18% increase in the money supply, stressing that without parallel growth in GDP and industrial output,...

11 months ago

Chinese influence

China Steps Into the Central Asian Power Vacuum

China’s footprint in Central Asia is growing rapidly, with the number of joint projects and strategic initiatives expanding across the region. Analysts attribute this shift to the waning influence of both Russia and the United States. Kazakhstan: From Agriculture to Atomic Energy In recent months, China has significantly deepened its cooperation with Kazakhstan. As The Times of Central Asia recently reported, on July 24, the Kazakh Ministry of Finance announced a pilot project with China involving unmanned freight trucks crossing the Bakhty (Kazakhstan) and Pokitu (China) border points. The initiative, known as "Smart Customs," will employ autonomous guided vehicles (AGVs) and implement a unified electronic customs declaration system recognized by both countries. Further institutional cooperation had earlier emerged on July 23, with the launch of the China-Central Asia Poverty Reduction Cooperation Center and the China-Central Asia Education Exchange and Cooperation Center in Urumqi, Xinjiang. These centers aim to deepen collaboration on poverty alleviation and education, priorities reaffirmed during the second China-Central Asia Summit in Astana, where 24 bilateral agreements were signed during President Xi Jinping’s visit. Meanwhile, China is asserting itself in Kazakhstan’s energy sector. On June 14, the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) was announced as the leader of a consortium to build a new nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan. Although Russia's Rosatom is slated to construct the country's first nuclear plant, logistical and financial setbacks at its Akkuyu project in Turkey have led some experts to suggest that CNNC may ultimately be responsible for Kazakhstan’s inaugural facility. Meanwhile, as previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, transit routes through Russia are seeing multiple problems, with Kazakhstan temporarily suspending oil exports via the Black Sea ports of Novorossiysk and Yuzhnaya Ozerovka due to newly enforced Russian regulations. At land borders, new entry procedures for foreign citizens, including Kazakhs, have led to massive traffic jams. China’s Strategic Pivot According to sociologist Gulmira Ileuova, China's assertive role is a response to the diminishing presence of both Russia, distracted by the war in Ukraine, and the United States, which has scaled back developmental efforts. In March, President Donald Trump signed an executive order curtailing the global operations of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), leading to the suspension of several NGO and media initiatives in Central Asia. “China is rapidly filling the vacuum,” Ileuova noted in an interview with The Times of Central Asia. “Beijing is transitioning from economic engagement to ideological influence, promoting narratives of social harmony and a shared future.” Ileuova anticipates that a broad ideological campaign, comparable to the "One Belt, One Road" infrastructure initiative, may follow, amplifying China’s soft power in the region. Rather than emphasizing democratic values, Chinese cooperation projects often focus on poverty alleviation, which finds greater resonance among Central Asian populations. Xi Jinping’s Repeated Visits Signal Priority As previously stated, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Kazakhstan on June 16 for the Second China-Central Asia Summit in Astana, during which leaders signed the Astana Declaration and a treaty on “eternal good-neighborliness.” According to political...

11 months ago

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