• KZT/USD = 0.00213
  • TJS/USD = 0.10800
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008
  • TMT/USD = 0.29850
  • KZT/USD = 0.00213
  • TJS/USD = 0.10800
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008
  • TMT/USD = 0.29850
  • KZT/USD = 0.00213
  • TJS/USD = 0.10800
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008
  • TMT/USD = 0.29850
  • KZT/USD = 0.00213
  • TJS/USD = 0.10800
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008
  • TMT/USD = 0.29850
  • KZT/USD = 0.00213
  • TJS/USD = 0.10800
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008
  • TMT/USD = 0.29850
  • KZT/USD = 0.00213
  • TJS/USD = 0.10800
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008
  • TMT/USD = 0.29850
  • KZT/USD = 0.00213
  • TJS/USD = 0.10800
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008
  • TMT/USD = 0.29850
  • KZT/USD = 0.00213
  • TJS/USD = 0.10800
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008
  • TMT/USD = 0.29850

Our People > Aliya Haidar

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Aliya Haidar

Journalist

Aliya Haidar is a Kazakhstani journalist. She started her career in 1998, and has worked in the country's leading regional and national publications ever since.

Articles

Kazakhstan Aims to Redefine the Role and Status of Teachers

Kazakhstan is preparing sweeping changes to the role of teachers, aiming to significantly strengthen their legal protections and professional autonomy. The proposals, announced at an educators' conference in August, are being described by experts as revolutionary for the country’s education system. Protecting Teachers' Rights President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev participated in the conference and proposed amendments to the Law on the Status of Teachers to shield educators from non-core responsibilities. “The issue of protecting teachers' rights should always be a priority,” said Tokayev. “Teachers must be exempt from tasks unrelated to their primary duties. Unfortunately, local authorities often grossly violate the law in this regard. The Prosecutor’s Office must take strict action against such violations.” In many post-Soviet countries, it has been common for teachers to be assigned duties unrelated to education. In Kazakhstan, for instance, teachers are often tasked with running polling stations during elections or referendums, ensuring voter turnout, cleaning school premises, organizing community celebrations, and more. Tokayev also spoke out against holding teachers accountable for incidents outside school grounds. “It is inappropriate to immediately punish teachers for any accident involving children,” he stated. “If an incident occurs outside school or due to parental negligence, the teacher should not be held responsible.” He referred to a recent case in the Almaty region, where a graduate died in a fight at a private residence. The school’s principal and teachers were dismissed, but the Ministry of Education later intervened on their behalf. Responsibility Within the School While calling for greater protections, Tokayev also emphasized the critical role of teachers within school walls. He urged educators to take active roles in combating social issues such as drug and gambling addiction, domestic violence, bullying, vandalism, and dependency. Teaching has long been one of Kazakhstan’s least attractive professions due to high workloads and low pay. However, since 2019, the education budget has tripled, 1,200 new schools have opened, and teacher salaries have doubled. More than 500,000 teachers now receive performance-based bonuses. Fighting Dependency and Exploitation Kazakh political analyst Marat Shibutov emphasized the importance of ending the exploitation of teachers and addressing broader societal issues such as dependency. “At a meeting with teachers, the president spoke out against parasitism, which has become widespread, especially in rural areas, where social benefits discourage work and promote idleness,” Shibutov said. “Some families even avoid treating disabled children to retain their benefits.” He added that around 60 children had fallen from windows in Astana since the start of the year, yet the blame is often shifted to the state rather than to parents, who bear responsibility for safety at home. “Dependency is more than just a lifestyle, it’s an ideology of aggressive laziness eating away at youth,” he said. On the issue of non-core assignments, Shibutov remarked: “It’s time to get rid of Soviet relics, teachers are not free labor or child supervisors”. A Remedy in Mathematics Political analyst Gaziz Abishev called for deeper educational reforms to address the psychological and cognitive vulnerabilities of young people in the digital age....

11 months ago

Kazakhstan Pushes Nationwide AI Rollout Amid Cybersecurity Risks and Skills Shortages

Kazakhstan is preparing to deploy artificial intelligence (AI) on a large scale across the economy, government, and education. However, experts warn that without transparency, constant auditing, and stronger oversight, the program risks falling short of its goals. Slow Progress and Security Risks A meeting on AI development was held in Astana on August 11, attended by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, and senior government officials. According to Tokayev, Kazakhstan’s main objective is to become a digital hub in Eurasia, but sluggish implementation, weak control mechanisms, and a shortage of qualified personnel are stymying progress. “I have already spoken about accelerating the creation of a unified national digital ecosystem," Tokayev said. "I have instructed that the necessary infrastructure be prepared, a legislative framework and data collection system be developed, and work begin on the introduction of artificial intelligence. However, the progress in implementing these instructions is unsatisfactory.” Cybersecurity is the priority, as current systems remain highly vulnerable. Since the start of the year, more than 40 major data breaches have occurred. The largest incident, in June, leaked 16.3 million records containing the personal data of Kazakh citizens, out of a population of 20 million, into the public domain. This was confirmed by Olzhas Satiev, president of the Center for Analysis and Investigation of Cyber Attacks (CARCA). By the end of the year, AI is set to be incorporated into e-government and Smart City projects, with a particular emphasis on the AI-Sana program, which aims to develop human capital and transform universities into research centers. The government is also responsible for introducing AI into state agencies and national companies, as well as drafting new legislation regulating AI. There are also plans to migrate all state and quasi-state digital systems onto a single sovereign platform. The national digital platform, QazTech, entered into commercial operation in July. Partnerships With China Kazakhstan intends to work closely with China on new digital products. Tokayev has pointed to China’s DeepSeek platform, developed for $6.5 million, far below the cost of Western equivalents, as an example to learn from. In February 2025, the National Academy of Sciences signed a memorandum with Zhejiang University of Technology, establishing an International Joint Laboratory for Spatio-Temporal Artificial Intelligence and Sustainable Development. The lab will focus on energy and climatology projects. In August, Tokayev expressed support for China’s proposal to create a World Organization for AI Development. Concerns Over Oversight and Staffing Independent analysts believe Kazakhstan has the potential to integrate AI into many aspects of daily life, given its relatively high level of digitalization. However, they warn of the risk of large sums being wasted on ineffective projects. Economist Rassul Rysmambetov has called for a full audit of more than a thousand large state IT systems to identify ineffective platforms. He also highlighted the shortage of skilled personnel: “There is too much technology, but not enough staff. Investments and start-ups sound like good slogans, but where are the professionals? I have often seen IT specialists forced into other jobs due to...

11 months ago

Astana’s Delicate Role in Ukraine Peace Efforts

Despite its close economic, historical, and cultural ties with Russia, Kazakhstan has maintained constructive relations with Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. That diplomatic balance was on display again on August 10, when President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to discuss prospects for a peace agreement. According to official sources, Ukraine initiated the call, and Tokayev reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s “unconditional interest in establishing a lasting peace in Ukraine based on the principles of international law.” Astana supports a “joint search for a peaceful solution on a fair basis” and consistently advocates compliance with the UN Charter, the inviolability of borders, and the territorial integrity of sovereign states. Kazakh political analyst Marat Shibutov has suggested that Zelenskyy is seeking support ahead of a potential shift in the confrontation with Russia. “On the eve of the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska, Zelenskyy is calling the leaders of other countries. He is seeking not only to secure better conditions for Ukraine, but also to understand what his personal political future holds. Yesterday, he spoke with Macron, Meloni, Tusk, Stubb, von der Leyen, Sánchez, and Starmer. Today, he spoke with Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson, Ilham Aliyev, and President Tokayev,” Shibutov wrote. According to Shibutov, Zelenskyy emphasized European support for Ukraine’s participation in negotiations. However, Tokayev, an experienced diplomat, may have cautioned that the outcome of the U.S.-Russia talks is unpredictable. “They depend on domestic politics,” Shibutov noted. “In the U.S., Trump’s electorate wants an end to the war and military aid to Ukraine halted, while many in Russia want Ukraine’s complete defeat and elimination as a state. In such conditions, Ukraine will have to make concessions. Territorial integrity is good, but not at the cost of the state’s very existence.” The official statement from Tokayev’s office cited the old proverb: “A bad peace is better than a good war.” Support During the War On March 6, 2022, shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion, an anti-war rally was held in Almaty. Participants carried Ukrainian flags, blue-and-yellow balloons, and anti-war posters. That same month, Kazakhstan sent humanitarian aid worth more than $2 million, including 25 types of medical supplies weighing 82 tons. Volunteers also collected food, hygiene products, medicines, and animal feed worth 150 million tenge. Kazakh entrepreneurs delivered aid and generators to Ukrainian hospitals. In the summer of 2023, a Kazakh company helped repair a medical facility in Mykolaiv damaged by Russian shelling. The installation of “yurts of indestructibility” in war-affected Ukrainian cities also gained wide recognition. In Kyiv alone, more than 100,000 people visited such a yurt to charge phones, warm up, and enjoy free Kazakh national dishes. Only According to the UN Charter Kazakhstan’s deep economic ties with Russia include oil and gas transit, gasoline supplies, and imports of food and medicine. The two countries share the world’s second-longest land border, spanning 4,750 miles. Cooperation on transboundary rivers is also critical. In contrast, Kazakhstan’s links with Ukraine are modest, consisting largely of historical ties and family connections. Pre-war trade...

11 months ago

From Kyz Kuu to Niqabs: Why Kazakh Women Face a Crisis of Values

Before the 1917 revolution, Kazakh women enjoyed significant freedoms due to their nomadic lifestyle. Living in the remote steppe, women were responsible not only for managing livestock and households but also for defending their families and property, often with weapons in hand. The Soviet era formalized gender equality, enabling women to become leading producers, scientists, decorated soldiers, and politicians.  Today, however, these traditions face erosion from two opposing forces: rising consumerism and a growing Arab-influenced Islamization. According to Kazakh political scientist Zamir Karazhanov, women in Kazakhstan are struggling to find their place amid an expanding spiritual vacuum and polarized ideologies. A Reversal in Feminism A centuries-old game, Kyz Kuu (“Catch the Girl”), exemplifies the historical freedom of nomadic Kazakh women. The game, rooted in equestrian tradition, involved a female rider gaining a head start before being pursued by a young horseman. If he caught her and took her ribbon, he could propose marriage. If not, the woman would chase and whip the suitor with a kamcha (whip) in front of spectators, a demonstration of both female skill and independence. During the Soviet period, the roles of Aliya Moldovan and Manshuk Mametova both posthumously named Heroes of the Soviet Union in World War II, underscored female empowerment in Kazakhstan. In contrast, contemporary Kazakhstan is embroiled in a heated debate over the niqab, a face-covering garment not traditionally worn by Kazakhs. This shift has sparked national concern, culminating in the passage of a June 2025 law banning face coverings in public places. Declining Representation and Shifting Priorities Women’s representation in politics and governance has deteriorated, particularly in Kazakhstan’s southern and western regions. Despite officially favorable statistics, political scientist Zamira Karazhanova argues that the state practices only “artificial equality.” Party-imposed quotas for women and youth offer a superficial solution without addressing the systemic barriers to real empowerment. “To achieve gender equality, we must create genuine opportunities for women to participate in politics and civil service,” said Karazhanova. Karazhanov notes a broader cultural shift, with young women increasingly drawn to the lifestyle of tokal, unofficial second wives of wealthy men. These figures flaunt luxury and affluence on social media, eclipsing the appeal of education and career development. “The pursuit of wealthy husbands is becoming a kind of ideology,” Karazhanov said. “Many young women are growing up with no interest in professional growth. They have entirely different ideals.” The Rise of Foreign Influences “Islam in Kazakhstan is becoming Arabized,” Karazhanov stated. “This affects not only how women dress, but also how they are perceived and perceive themselves. Religion is becoming a key part of national identity, even if some believers visit the mosque on Fridays and bars on Saturdays.” Following the collapse of the USSR, Kazakhstan experienced a spiritual vacuum, filled rapidly by imported religious ideologies. Many religious leaders were educated in Arab countries or Afghanistan, bringing with them foreign dogmas that were alien to traditional Kazakh Islam. Karazhanov stressed that Arabization and radicalization are not confined to Kazakhstan, but also affect Russia, Turkey, and...

12 months ago

Central Asia Grapples with Fuel Shortages Amid Market Volatility

The heavy reliance on fuel imports from Russia is placing Central Asian countries in an increasingly precarious position. Disparities in pricing and exchange rates are driving a surge in illicit fuel resales, exacerbating supply challenges across the region. Gasoline and diesel prices continue to climb, and shortages are being felt widely. This dependence on Russian supplies is particularly concerning following U.S. President Donald Trump's ultimatum to Moscow: end the war in Ukraine within ten days or face 100% tariffs on countries trading oil and petroleum products with Russia. The tariffs could take effect as early as next week, placing Central Asian states in a hugely vulnerable position. Kazakhstan: Shortages and Shadow Exports In early July, motorists across Kazakhstan reported widespread shortages of AI-95 gasoline, particularly along the Karaganda-Balkhash and Astana-Pavlodar highways and in the country’s western regions. Some filling stations restricted purchases of AI-95 to 30 liters per vehicle, and AI-98 was only available via coupons. The Ministry of Energy attributed the shortages to increased tourist and transit traffic. Price caps on gasoline were lifted in January 2025, after which they began to steadily rise. According to the Ministry of Energy, fuel in Kazakhstan remains significantly cheaper than in other Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member states, prompting the government to gradually align prices with the regional market. Forecasts suggest gasoline prices could rise by up to 50%, further fueling inflation and impacting all sectors of the economy. The government argues that maintaining artificially low fuel prices would require substantial budget subsidies. The resulting price differentials have made illegal fuel exports more profitable, aggravating domestic shortages. To combat speculation, Kazakhstan imposed a ban in January on exporting gasoline and diesel by road and rail. Despite the country’s ongoing efforts to expand domestic production, Kazakhstan is expected to import substantial volumes from Russia in 2025: 285,000 tons of motor gasoline, 300,000 tons of jet fuel, 450,000 tons of diesel, and 500,000 tons of bitumen. Experts caution that significant increases in domestic output may not materialize until 2030. Russia’s decision on July 28 to tighten its gasoline export ban to include large producers is further complicating the situation. The embargo, introduced amid record-high exchange prices, is expected to last through August. Nevertheless, Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov insists the Russian export restrictions will not affect Kazakhstan, citing a standing intergovernmental agreement that exempts the country from such measures. The Rise of Grey Market Schemes Despite official reassurances, fuel prices continue to rise. Energy expert Olzhas Baidildinov warns of a growing shadow market, driven in part by the weakening of the Kazakh tenge against the Russian ruble. With the exchange rate at 6.6 tenge per ruble, the economic incentive for illicit exports from Kazakhstan remains strong. Baidildinov predicts further shortages by the autumn if this trend continues. Kyrgyzstan: Growing Dependence Kyrgyzstan, which has faced repeated fuel shortages in recent years, has seen prices rise sharply. Over the past decade, the cost of AI-92 has climbed by 52%, AI-95 by 57%, and diesel, used in agriculture...

12 months ago

Kazakhstan Faces Turbulence as External Pressures Mount

Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest economy, is facing a convergence of pressures that President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and National Bank Chairman Timur Suleimenov must now manage simultaneously, from currency depreciation and geopolitical turmoil to volatile oil markets and contentious fiscal reforms, that are testing its economic resilience. Geopolitical Pressures Escalate By mid-2025, it had become increasingly apparent that Kazakhstan has limited capacity to influence global geopolitical dynamics. Like many “middle powers,” the country must adapt to the actions of larger states, whose unpredictable decisions continue to exert downward pressure on the tenge and fuel inflation. On July 28, U.S. President Donald Trump shortened a previously issued 50-day ultimatum to Russian President Vladimir Putin, giving him just 10-12 days to agree to a peace deal with Ukraine. This development added to the mounting uncertainty already impacting Kazakhstan’s economy. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, analysts warn that Trump’s secondary sanctions, 100% tariffs targeting Russia’s trading partners, could potentially be extended to Kazakhstan and other Central Asian economies. Though Kazakhstan is not among Russia’s largest trading partners, its economic links to Moscow are still substantial. The country relies heavily on imports from Russia, including electricity, gasoline, food, and medicine. Adding to the pressure, on July 7, Trump announced a 25% tariff on Kazakhstani goods, effective August 1, 2025. While $1.8 billion of Kazakhstan’s $2 billion in exports to the U.S. (mostly oil, metals, and rare earth elements) are exempt, the move has nonetheless rattled Kazakhstan’s already fragile industrial sector and spooked investors. Oil price instability, largely driven by Western efforts to curtail Russian exports, also poses a major risk. Oil revenues make up the bulk of Kazakhstan’s export income and are a key source of budget financing. Further complicating matters, new Russian restrictions require foreign tankers to obtain Federal Security Service (FSB) approval before accessing key Black Sea ports. This affects the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which handles more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports and is partly owned by U.S. firms Chevron and ExxonMobil. Reuters estimates the new rules could disrupt over 2% of global oil supply. Tenge Hits Historic Low As of July 28, the tenge dropped to a record low of 544.87 per U.S. dollar. The depreciation is driving up the cost of imports, an acute problem in an import-dependent economy, pushing more families to spend over half their income on food. Companies with debt obligations in U.S. dollars are also seeing their liabilities grow, worsening the investment climate and prompting firms to scale back on planned expansions. Central Bank Warns Against Intervention National Bank Chairman Timur Suleimenov cautioned against government intervention in currency markets, a position supported by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who has repeatedly cautioned against short-term administrative measures that can destabilize the economy. Suleimenov noted that past attempts to control the exchange rate led to abrupt and damaging devaluations. Suleimenov attributed the tenge’s vulnerability to rising fiscal injections and an 18% increase in the money supply, stressing that without parallel growth in GDP and industrial output,...

12 months ago

China Steps Into the Central Asian Power Vacuum

China’s footprint in Central Asia is growing rapidly, with the number of joint projects and strategic initiatives expanding across the region. Analysts attribute this shift to the waning influence of both Russia and the United States. Kazakhstan: From Agriculture to Atomic Energy In recent months, China has significantly deepened its cooperation with Kazakhstan. As The Times of Central Asia recently reported, on July 24, the Kazakh Ministry of Finance announced a pilot project with China involving unmanned freight trucks crossing the Bakhty (Kazakhstan) and Pokitu (China) border points. The initiative, known as "Smart Customs," will employ autonomous guided vehicles (AGVs) and implement a unified electronic customs declaration system recognized by both countries. Further institutional cooperation had earlier emerged on July 23, with the launch of the China-Central Asia Poverty Reduction Cooperation Center and the China-Central Asia Education Exchange and Cooperation Center in Urumqi, Xinjiang. These centers aim to deepen collaboration on poverty alleviation and education, priorities reaffirmed during the second China-Central Asia Summit in Astana, where 24 bilateral agreements were signed during President Xi Jinping’s visit. Meanwhile, China is asserting itself in Kazakhstan’s energy sector. On June 14, the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) was announced as the leader of a consortium to build a new nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan. Although Russia's Rosatom is slated to construct the country's first nuclear plant, logistical and financial setbacks at its Akkuyu project in Turkey have led some experts to suggest that CNNC may ultimately be responsible for Kazakhstan’s inaugural facility. Meanwhile, as previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, transit routes through Russia are seeing multiple problems, with Kazakhstan temporarily suspending oil exports via the Black Sea ports of Novorossiysk and Yuzhnaya Ozerovka due to newly enforced Russian regulations. At land borders, new entry procedures for foreign citizens, including Kazakhs, have led to massive traffic jams. China’s Strategic Pivot According to sociologist Gulmira Ileuova, China's assertive role is a response to the diminishing presence of both Russia, distracted by the war in Ukraine, and the United States, which has scaled back developmental efforts. In March, President Donald Trump signed an executive order curtailing the global operations of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), leading to the suspension of several NGO and media initiatives in Central Asia. “China is rapidly filling the vacuum,” Ileuova noted in an interview with The Times of Central Asia. “Beijing is transitioning from economic engagement to ideological influence, promoting narratives of social harmony and a shared future.” Ileuova anticipates that a broad ideological campaign, comparable to the "One Belt, One Road" infrastructure initiative, may follow, amplifying China’s soft power in the region. Rather than emphasizing democratic values, Chinese cooperation projects often focus on poverty alleviation, which finds greater resonance among Central Asian populations. Xi Jinping’s Repeated Visits Signal Priority As previously stated, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Kazakhstan on June 16 for the Second China-Central Asia Summit in Astana, during which leaders signed the Astana Declaration and a treaty on “eternal good-neighborliness.” According to political...

12 months ago

Embezzlement Scandal at Kazakh Charity Fund Implicates Influential Officials

A high-profile scandal is unfolding in Kazakhstan involving the alleged embezzlement of billions of tenge from the Biz Birgemiz Qazaqstan (“We Are Together”) charity fund. Testimony from the fund’s embattled director, Perizat Kairat, alongside ongoing press investigations, has implicated several prominent officials. The Rise and Fall of Perizat Kairat Charitable giving in Kazakhstan remains underdeveloped, with many humanitarian organizations struggling to secure adequate funding. The Biz Birgemiz Qazaqstan fund, however, stood out. Backed by donations from large banks, business leaders, and individuals, it quickly amassed substantial sums. Established in June 2021, the fund came under scrutiny after Kairat’s arrest in November 2024. She was initially charged with embezzling more than KZT 1.5 billion ($2.8 million) raised during the spring 2024 floods, the worst to hit Kazakhstan in 80 years, affecting twelve regions and leaving thousands homeless. Subsequent investigations raised the alleged embezzled amount to KZT 2.9 billion ($5.4 million). The authorities claim Kairat and her mother, Gaini Alashbaeva, used the funds to purchase luxury real estate, vehicles, designer goods, and pay for lavish travel. Funds collected for humanitarian aid to Gaza residents were also reportedly misappropriated. Additional allegations include collecting over KZT 105 million ($200,000) for festivals such as Central Asia Fest and Almaty Uni, which were never held, and for a rehabilitation center, which was never built. Support for the fund was boosted by advertising through Kazakhstan’s largest financial platform, Kaspi.kz, which promoted it within its mobile app. During court proceedings, Kaspi.kz confirmed transferring KZT 620 million ($1.2 million) to the fund. Another major contributor, Jusan Bank (now Alatau City Bank), reportedly also donated KZT 300 million ($560,000). Misplaced Trust Public trust in the fund was bolstered by the widespread belief that it was affiliated with the state. For instance, an elderly woman from Pavlodar testified that she donated KZT 1 million, believing it was a government initiative. Parents from Nazarbayev Intellectual Schools (NIS) who transferred KZT 901,000 are now demanding its return to assist a seriously ill teacher. Witnesses claim Kairat collected cash through intermediaries using large market-style bags. Political Connections and Allegations Perizat Kairat’s defense has drawn high-level political figures into the spotlight. On July 14, she requested the court summon Bauyrzhan Baybek, former mayor of Almaty and ex-first deputy chairman of the ruling Amanat Party (formerly Nur Otan), for questioning. Kairat alleges that the fund was “created under the leadership of Baybek,” claiming all its founders, except herself, were current or former party employees. Amanat, Kazakhstan’s dominant political party, has publicly denied any connection to Kairat or the foundation. Though President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev resigned from the party leadership in April 2022, Amanat remains politically influential and retains close ties to many government officials. Kazakh outlet Orda.kz examined Kairat’s social media to explore potential links between the fund and state institutions. It found the foundation's founders had associations with the BizBirgemiz volunteer movement, launched during the COVID-19 pandemic under a state initiative of the same name. Just a month after its registration, the foundation hosted a charity...

1 year ago

Trump’s 100% Tariffs May Target Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan

U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled a new wave of sanctions against Russia, including the potential imposition of 100% tariffs on its trading partners, which could affect Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and other former Soviet states. Who Could Be Affected? On July 15, President Trump announced an escalation in U.S. arms deliveries to Ukraine and warned of intensified sanctions against Russia. If no progress is made in resolving the conflict within 50 days, the U.S. will implement additional measures, including secondary tariffs of up to 100% on countries trading with Russia. Experts warn that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan may be particularly vulnerable. Although not among Russia’s largest trading partners, these countries maintain extensive commercial ties with Moscow. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), China, India, and Turkey accounted for 74 percent of Russia's fossil fuel revenue in 2024. Oil exports totaled €104 billion, petroleum products €75 billion, gas €40 billion, and coal €23 billion. Despite multiple sanctions packages, the European Union continues to import Russian energy. In 2024, the EU spent €21.9 billion on Russian oil and gas, just 1% less than in 2023. Over the same period, EU financial assistance to Ukraine amounted to €18.7 billion, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Yet Trump may spare Russia’s largest trading partners. In recent months, he has taken steps to impose severe tariffs on the European Union and China, only to reverse course under pressure from business groups and concerns about global trade disruptions. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan received formal notification from the U.S. on July 7 that a 25% tariff on its goods will take effect from August 1, 2025. This raises the possibility that smaller economies in Russia’s orbit may become targets of U.S. economic retaliation. Already in the Crosshairs Kazakh analyst Olzhas Baidildinov noted that trade between Kazakhstan and Russia totaled $27.8 billion in 2024, with $18.2 billion in exports from Russia and $9.5 billion from Kazakhstan. "Such figures certainly cannot escape the attention of OFAC,” Baidildinov wrote, referring to the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. “European sanctions apply only within Europe. However, Kazakhstan continues to import Russian oil, gas, and petroleum products. Secondary sanctions, as I’ve previously warned, are merely a matter of minor adjustments to existing measures,” he added. Trump’s administration may also be overlooking Kazakhstan’s unique geographic and economic ties to Russia. The two countries share the world’s longest continuous land border, over 7,500 kilometers, and are closely connected through pipelines, energy infrastructure, and raw materials trade. Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan Also Vulnerable Azerbaijan’s trade with Russia reached approximately $4.8 billion in 2024, an increase of 10.1 percent. Russia ranks as Azerbaijan’s third-largest trading partner, after Italy and Turkey. Exports to Russia totaled $1.178 billion, accounting for 4.4 percent of Azerbaijan’s total exports. Notably, Russia is the largest buyer of Azerbaijan’s non-oil products, with a 34.6 percent share. Imports from Russia include foodstuffs, machinery, and metals, while Azerbaijan supplies gas, textiles, and agricultural goods. Kyrgyzstan is also at risk....

1 year ago

Trump’s Tariffs May Hurt Kazakhstan’s Economy, Expert Warns

On July 7, U.S. President Donald Trump informed Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev that Washington will impose a 25% tariff on goods from Kazakhstan, effective August 1, 2025. Tokayev responded on July 10, affirming Kazakhstan’s commitment to "developing fair, predictable, and mutually beneficial trade relations" with the United States. He emphasized Kazakhstan’s readiness for “constructive dialogue aimed at finding a rational solution to trade issues,” expressing his hope that a compromise will be reached. While officials and analysts in Kazakhstan have downplayed the potential economic impact, citing limited trade volume and the exclusion of key exports such as oil and metals, economist Olzhas Baidildinov has challenged this optimism. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, he outlines the potential long-term damage to Kazakhstan's economy and investment climate. TCA: What is the situation following the announcement of the increased tariffs? Baidildinov: The immediate damage is minimal, which is why many in the media and expert circles remain optimistic. Kazakhstan exports about $2 billion in goods to the U.S., of which $1.8 billion are raw materials, oil, metals, rare earth elements, silver, and precious metals, all previously exempt from duties. The remaining $200 million, mostly manufactured goods and agricultural products, will now be subject to the 25% tariff. Though small in macroeconomic terms, this is a significant blow to exporters and a deterrent for future investors. TCA: What are the broader implications of these tariffs for Kazakhstan? Baidildinov: The most serious consequence will be on investment. Domestic experts often lack a long-term view, rarely looking beyond a few months. But consider this: if you were an investor planning to produce in Kazakhstan and export to the U.S., would you proceed under these conditions? A 25% tariff today could become 50% or 100% tomorrow. This unpredictability will scare off potential investors. Trump’s message is clear: produce in the U.S. or face penalties. For Kazakhstan, there is little upside. The country’s oil and gas sector has made strides in localizing production of goods that could replace Western imports, but these products will now face higher entry barriers into the U.S. market. American companies may also become more cautious about engaging with Kazakh suppliers. More broadly, this signals that the U.S. does not regard Kazakhstan as a partner in high-tech manufacturing. Even American firms considering setting up production in Kazakhstan to benefit from low costs would now find the economics less favorable. Other countries, including EU members, may follow the U.S. example, reinforcing the perception of Kazakhstan as merely a source of raw materials. TCA: Do you expect further pressure from the U.S. or its allies? Baidildinov: This marks the beginning of a global tariff war. Other countries will likely adopt similar protectionist policies to defend their industries, especially in light of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. European manufacturers, for example, may pressure their governments to implement similar tariffs. This trend could shape global trade for years to come, with Kazakhstan potentially caught in the crossfire. TCA: In your opinion, is the U.S. tariff increase...

1 year ago