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Skyward Ambitions: Navigating the Growth and Challenges of Kazakhstan’s Aviation Industry

According to the Concept for the Development of the Transport and Logistics Potential of the Republic of Kazakhstan by 2030, the development of the country's civil aviation industry should be conducted in three key areas: flight safety, route network development, and infrastructure modernization. So, how do things stand today in regard to fulfilling these tasks? As previously reported by TCA, Uzbekistan has far surpassed Kazakhstan in direct air routes to key countries; from Tashkent, one can even fly to New York, which remains an elusive dream for Kazakhstanis. In 2011, Air Astana approached Boeing regarding the purchase of three 787 Dreamliner aircraft. However, when approached by TCA in August 2024, Air Astana stated that "since 2011, there have been several macroeconomic, global changes, which affected the market situation, and the timing of aircraft deliveries has been revised, including delays on the part of the manufacturer."   Safety In July of this year, a landmark event for the aviation industry occurred when President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev vowed to open the Permanent Mission of Kazakhstan to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). This was another step towards introducing advanced standards in the aviation industry, and a decision which is in line with the trend of removing all restrictions for domestic carriers on flights to the European Union from Kazakhstan. The issue was discussed at a meeting of the EU Flight Safety Committee, with the participation of representatives of the aviation authorities of 27 countries. Unfortunately, however, cases of safety violations in civil aviation in Kazakhstan are not decreasing. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, in 2023 there were 58 accidents in air transportation, compared to 47 in the previous year. In the last month alone, three incidents involving damage to planes occurred at Astana Airport alone. The causes were weather conditions, as well as the actions of the air harbor operator. Fortunately, there were no casualties. One of the most hotly debated problems in the aviation industry for many years has been the issue of construction in areas surrounding airports. Law enforcement are now taking measures to bring these areas into compliance. According to data from the Aviation Administration of Kazakhstan, in 2023, during an inspection by the General Prosecutor's Office, it was revealed that within the boundaries of airport safety zones, local executive bodies had allocated approximately 1,200 plots for the construction of residential, commercial and other facilities, on which more than 900 buildings have been erected. Over 100,000 different structures have been built within the territory of airfields without the approval of airport commissions (residential, commercial, industrial, etc.). The cities of Almaty, Shymkent, Atyrau, and Aktobe have seen the most serious cases of illegal construction. In order to establish clear requirements for the use of airfield territories, legislative amendments have since been introduced regarding the procedure for granting rights to plots located on such land.   Air geography The air transportation market in Kazakhstan is growing: 8.3 million passengers traveled by air between January-July 2024. This constitutes a 14% growth when...

Will Direct Flights from Kazakhstan to the U.S. Become a Reality?

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan spent the first thirty years of independence embroiled in rivalries rooted in the Soviet-era. However, the two countries have since moved towards cooperation, and both Tashkent and Astana have tasted success. One area in which Uzbekistan has far surpassed Kazakhstan in direct air routes to key countries. From Tashkent, one can even fly to New York, which is still a dream for Kazakhstanis who want to reach the U.S. via direct flights. As previously reported by TCA, however, at the end of July, the authorities in Kazakhstan stated that the first B787 “Dreamliner” will be delivered in late 2025, bringing Astana’s long-held goal of direct flights to the United States by the end of 2025 a step closer. But will this dream become a reality? In January 2022, the Parliament of Kazakhstan adopted the draft law "On ratification of the agreement between the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Government of the United States of America on Air Transport". The agreement itself was signed back on December 30, 2019,  when it referenced the flight route Nur-Sultan - New York. Then Minister of Industry and Infrastructure Development (MIID), Kairbek Uskenbayev said that a joint commission of representatives of American airlines had reviewed the airports of the capital and Almaty, and concluded that they met international standards. Earlier, the MIID had specified that under the "Open Skies" regime, the fifth freedom of the air would allow Kazakhstan's airlines to bring passengers to the United States, then pick up passengers there and transport them to a third country, that is, to fly in transit through the United States. Concerning cargo, the agreement provided a seventh degree of freedom, which also allows a Kazakh airline to transport cargo from the U.S. to Canada or the United Kingdom without additional authorization. U.S. companies in Kazakhstan would have similar rights. At a meeting held in 2022, which was attended by the Director General of the Aviation Administration, Catalin Radu, and the Minister of Industry and Infrastructural Development of Kazakhstan, Kairbek Uskenbayev, it was stated that work has been underway since the beginning of 2022 to increase technical capacity in preparation for the upcoming FAA International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) into launching direct flights between Kazakhstan and the United States. According to Talgat Lastayev, the Civil Aviation Committee Chairman, Kazakhstan had raised its flight safety assurance level to 84%, 15% above the global average. Plans for the capital's airport changed, however. On the sidelines of a government event in May 2023, when asked by journalists when flights to New York was expected to commence, Peter Foster, head of Air Astana, Kazakhstan's largest airline, responded stating, "Flights are planned to begin by 2025. There is a small correction to be made; the flights will be from Almaty. The Almaty - New York route will at the initial stage be three times a week, with a further increase to 5 flights a week, and if there is good performance, daily flights. There will be no...

EBRD Acquires Stake in Air Astana

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) on February 14th said it has invested $41.1m (€39m) into shares of Kazakhstan’s flagship carrier, Air Astana, supporting the country’s first partial privatization through an initial public offering (IPO). The EBRD’s investment represents a 5% shareholding in Air Astana. The shares will be listed on both the London Stock Exchange and the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange. The IPO is a significant privatization benchmark for Kazakhstan’s economy, which is predominantly controlled by the state.  The IPO funds, including the EBRD’s investment, will be used to support Air Astana’s fleet expansion and renewal program, the construction of an aircraft maintenance facility and the acquisition of a flight simulator, the EBRD press service said. Air Astana plans to expand its current fleet to 80 aircraft by 2029 by acquiring new fuel-efficient planes. The EBRD said it will be working with Air Astana towards achieving its target of becoming carbon neutral by 2050. The bank will also use this opportunity to play a greater role in the decarbonization of aviation and to assist in setting up the sustainable aviation fuels industry in Central Asia.

Air Astana: LSE’s largest IPO of 2024 Set to Test Appetite of Investors

Shares of Central Asia's largest airline Air Astana are now for sale to the public in London, with the company's global depositary receipts (GDRs) trading on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). The GDRs were priced for this month's IPO at $9.50 a piece last week when conditional dealings in began on the LSE and Kazakhstan's Astana International Exchange (AIX). Today, Air Astana's local shares trading on the Almaty's KASE bourse are up 6.1% to 1,241 tenge, whilst dollar-priced GDRs trading on Astana's AIX are down 1.1% to $10.08 at an intra-day volume of just under 30,000 GDRs. The LSE's largest IPO of 2024 to date is set to gauge the demand of frontier and emerging market equity investors for exposure to Central Asian stocks in the aftermath of Russia's 2022 attack on Ukraine. Companies like Air Astana, and notably its low-cost carrier unit Fly Arystan, have in some ways benefited from the disruptions caused by the war and its consequent matrix of international sanctions as people and goods are re-routed through Kazakhstan. Conversely, the threat of more instability in the region and the risks of higher inflation, fuel and operating costs will undoubtedly remain on the minds of potential investors. The IPO in London and Kazakhstan represents a meaningful step for the latter's sovereign wealth fund, Samruk Kazyna, which plans to continue putting the shares of state companies on public markets. According to one former IPO manager from a European bank who declined to be named as the IPO process was underway, Air Astana's offering is the "clearest test in the IPO market to date of investor belief in Kazakhstan’s continued economic development." He also noted that it's "positive to see that four of the nine directors are independent, with three of those independent directors being from outside Kazakhstan" in terms of corporate governance. Air Astana's results for the first nine months of 2023, which were published on December 12th, showed positive top-line growth in revenue, operating profit, and passenger-kilometers flown metrics versus 2022, though the carrier did see a 1% dip in EBITDAR margin (operating profit as a percentage of its revenue) to 28% which investors may focus on going forward.

Shares of Air Astana Begin Trading on Local and London Bourse

Early trading in shares of Kazakhstan's air carrier, Air Astana, began today on securities exchanges in Astana and London as part of an initial public offering (IPO). Trading in Air Astana's global depositary receipts (GDRs) -- a tool used by foreign investors to trade local shares of a company -- also started using the company's common shares on the Astana International Exchange (AIX), priced in U.S. dollars. Price quotes are published on the AIX's website. "Freedom Broker acted as a market-maker on [the AIX]. Early trades turned into main trades after completion of settlements and distribution of securities to investors' accounts in the depository system, in accordance with the applications submitted during the IPO period," reads an official statement. According to the results of early trading, the final price of Air Astana's initial public offering was 1,073.83 tenge per share and $9.5 per GDR, putting the estimated market capitalization of the company at about $847 million at the start of trading. As part of Air Astana's IPO, shareholders BAE Systems of the U.K. sold 7,533,109 GDRs and Kazakh national wealth fund Samruk Kazyna sold 60,393,877 shares (with an additional issue). BAE Systems sold 14,187,643 GDRs on the international market . Gross proceeds from the offering are estimated at about $350-370 million -- of which about $120 million will be used by the airline itself to finance its growth strategy. The main public auction for Air Astana securities is scheduled for February 15 and will be held on the AIX, the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE, Almaty), and the London Stock Exchange (LSE).