Ecology - The Times Of Central Asia

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Oil and Gas

Kashagan and Karachaganak: Will Kazakhstan’s Claims Lead to Changes in the Shareholder Structure?

The beginning of 2026 has been marked by a new round of confrontation between Kazakhstan and the international consortia developing the country’s largest oil and gas fields, North Caspian Operating Company N.V. (Kashagan) and Karachaganak Petroleum Operating B.V. (Karachaganak). Below is an overview of the current situation and the possible scenarios. Arbitration proceedings initiated in early 2023 have expanded from $16.5 billion to more than $170 billion. Over three years, Kazakhstan has secured preliminary victories on several claims, enough, in my view, to suggest that the era of foreign oil consortia dominating Kazakhstan’s strategic projects may be coming to an end. Ecology and NCOC Violations This week, Bloomberg reported in its article “Oil Majors Seek Arbitration Over $5 Billion Kazakh Sulfur Fine” that the NCOC consortium is filing in international arbitration to challenge a Kazakh court decision to collect 2.3 trillion tenge (KZT). The Bloomberg headline, however, presents the issue inaccurately. Environmental violations, including the excessive storage of approximately 1 million tons of sulfur, were identified during an inspection in March 2023, when the exchange rate stood at 451.71 KZT per $1. The rate later rose to 520-540 and currently stands at around 500 KZT per $1. According to investment forecasts, it may reach 600 KZT per $1 by the end of 2026. As a result, the dollar equivalent of the fine has decreased significantly. At the March 2023 rate, 2.3 trillion KZT amounted to approximately $5.1 billion. At 500 KZT per $1, it equals about $4.6 billion. At 600 KZT per $1, it would fall to roughly $3.8 billion, a difference of about $1.3 billion. After my earlier publications arguing that foreign consortia should be fined in foreign-currency equivalent at the exchange rate prevailing at the time of filing, the proposal was also raised in Parliament. Such an approach would be logical: the consortia export their oil and receive revenue in foreign currency, yet fines are imposed in tenge. After several rounds of appeals, the consortium lost what became the largest environmental dispute in Kazakhstan’s history, initially involving more than 20 systematic violations of environmental legislation. Correspondence between consortium members published in Western media indicated they were aware of the violations but considered remediation and compliance financially costly. NCOC’s annual revenue is approximately $10 billion. Media reports also stated that the consortium offered around $110 million, roughly 50 times less than the fine, for regional social programs in exchange for waiving environmental claims. Neither NCOC nor the Kazakh government confirmed such negotiations. In 2010-2011, similar environmental and tax claims against the Karachaganak consortium resulted in Kazakhstan receiving a 10% stake in the project. The current ownership structure of NCOC is: ENI (Italy) - 16.81% ExxonMobil (U.S.) - 16.81% CNPC (China) - 8.33% INPEX (Japan) - 7.56% TotalEnergies (France) - 16.81% Shell (UK) - 16.81% KazMunayGas (Kazakhstan) - 16.88% Total investment in Phase One of Kashagan is estimated at $60 billion. By analogy with Karachaganak, the environmental fine could hypothetically lead to an increase in Kazakhstan’s share by 5-7 percentage...

Lake Issyk-Kul

Kyrgyzstan Draws International Attention to Climate Risks for Lake Issyk-Kul

Speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai on February 4, Bakyt Torobaev, Kyrgyzstan’s Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers and Minister of Water Resources, Agriculture, and Processing Industry, highlighted the growing threat climate change poses to Lake Issyk-Kul, the country’s largest lake, a unique ecological reserve, and one of Central Asia’s leading tourist destinations. Torobaev described Issyk-Kul as a unique ecosystem of regional significance and a vital socioeconomic and environmental resource for Kyrgyzstan. However, in recent decades, the lake has experienced serious climate-related pressures, according to the Ministry of Water Resources. Since the mid-19th century, the lake’s water level has dropped by nearly 14 meters, while its total volume has decreased by approximately 85 billion cubic meters. The number of rivers flowing into the lake has also significantly declined, largely due to melting glaciers and increased agricultural water use. Torobaev warned that further declines in Issyk-Kul’s water level could lead to severe environmental and socioeconomic consequences, including threats to biodiversity, the lake’s tourism potential, and the well-being of the local population. Kyrgyzstan, he said, sees the preservation of Issyk-Kul as part of the broader global climate and water agenda, calling for a shift from short-term measures to long-term, science-based, and investment-driven solutions. He urged the international community to strengthen partnerships in sustainable water resource management, integrate climate, water, and ecosystem approaches, and support joint initiatives aimed at preserving ecologically significant natural sites. In December 2025, Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers approved the Concept for the Sustainable Development of the Ecological and Economic System of Lake Issyk-Kul until 2030, along with a corresponding Action Plan. The initiative aims to safeguard the lake and its surrounding biosphere from mounting environmental and human pressures while enhancing long-term economic resilience in the region. Torobaev also addressed the broader issue of water scarcity, which is becoming an increasingly critical factor for regional stability, food security, and sustainable development in the context of climate change. As a mountainous country that serves as a key source of Central Asia’s rivers, Kyrgyzstan bears particular responsibility for the sustainability of the region’s water ecosystems, he said, and consistently advances the water agenda at international forums. Also on February 4, Torobaev participated in a Global Councils on SDGs meeting at the summit, where he proposed greater global attention to the challenges facing mountain regions. He said that mountain ecosystems are among the most vulnerable to climate change. Melting glaciers, shifting precipitation patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events pose long-term risks to water resources, agriculture, and energy security in Central Asia and beyond. Kyrgyzstan, he said, advocates for recognizing mountain regions as special zones for sustainable development and ensuring their prioritized access to climate finance, adaptation technologies, and environmental monitoring systems. According to Torobaev, the sustainability of mountain regions is directly linked to the water and food security of millions of people, underscoring the need for systemic and coordinated international responses.

Environment

Public Hearing Set for Sea Breeze Uzbekistan Project Near Charvak Lake

A public hearing on the environmental impact assessment of the Sea Breeze Uzbekistan tourist complex is scheduled for January 23 in the Bostanlyk district of Tashkent region, according to the State Center for Environmental Expertise. The hearing will take place at the Bostanlyk district administration building in the town of Gazalkent. Officials stated that the event aims to review the potential environmental effects of the proposed development and to gather feedback from residents, environmental specialists, and other stakeholders. The Sea Breeze Uzbekistan project is planned for the eastern shore of the Charvak reservoir in Bostanlyk. It envisions a large-scale, modern tourism infrastructure in one of Uzbekistan’s most frequented recreational zones. During the hearing, participants will assess land use and construction proposals, as well as potential impacts on air quality, water resources, and soil conditions. Additional topics for discussion include waste management, the preservation of green zones and water bodies, and environmental safety measures, including continuous ecological monitoring. The State Center confirmed that all project documentation complies with Uzbekistan’s environmental legislation. Residents and interested parties are invited to submit comments or proposals either during the hearing or in writing. Authorities emphasized that public involvement is a critical component of the environmental review process. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, businessman Emin Agalarov plans to develop Sea Breeze Uzbekistan as a $5 billion, all-season tourism complex spanning between 500 and 700 hectares along Charvak Lake. The development is set to include hotels, villas, swimming pools, sports and leisure facilities, retail areas, restaurants, and a bridge connecting both sides of the reservoir. Cultural events, festivals, and concerts are also planned throughout the year. Despite mounting public scrutiny and opposition from environmental activists, the Uzbek government has endorsed the project. In August 2025, Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov signed Cabinet Resolution No. 490, granting Sea Breeze Uzbekistan LLC a 25-year direct lease on 577 hectares of land for development.

Caspian Sea

Kazakhstan Leads Regional Efforts to Save the Caspian Sea

Today, Central Asia and the Caspian littoral states face growing challenges that extend well beyond national borders. Climate change, water scarcity, land degradation, and the shrinking of the Caspian Sea are no longer only environmental concerns but matters of regional security and sustainable development. The Caspian Sea, the world’s largest inland body of water, has become a symbol of crisis. Its rapid decline threatens ecosystems, navigation, fisheries, and food security from the Caucasus to Central Asia. Dushanbe: ecology as a new agenda for regional security A week ago, Dushanbe hosted two major international events: the “Central Asia–Russia” Summit and the meeting of the CIS Heads of State Council. At both forums, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called for moving from declarations to concrete action, proposing to Establish a Council of Ministers for Ecology among the Central Asian countries and Russia Develop an Interstate Program for the preservation of the Caspian Sea’s water resources Expand the use of space technologies to monitor transboundary water bodies These initiatives are part of a broader effort to build a new environmental framework for Eurasia, positioning Central Asia as a laboratory for sustainable solutions rather than a zone of ecological risk. The environmental disaster of the Caspian Sea The Caspian Sea is shrinking rapidly. According to data from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Ecology, since 2006 its surface area has decreased by more than 31,000 square kilometers, and water levels have fallen by about 1.5 to 2 meters. Projections indicate severe consequences for spawning grounds, the Caspian seal population, port infrastructure, and the regional economy. The crisis mirrors the Aral Sea disaster, where environmental degradation caused widespread illness and social disruption. Experts warn that toxic dust from the exposed seabed could lead to respiratory diseases among millions of people. According to estimates by Save the Caspian Sea, the shoreline could retreat by as much as 89 kilometers, pushing fishing communities to the edge of survival. Falling sea levels already threaten unique wildlife, navigation, water supply, and agriculture, creating risks of migration and conflict. Because the Caspian is landlocked and not connected to the world’s oceans, its water losses cannot be naturally replenished. A coordinated response is needed, including sustainable water management, pollution control, and climate adaptation. The Caspian Sea as a crossroads of interests and contradictions The Caspian region today is more than an ecosystem; it is a geopolitical nexus where the interests of coastal states and global powers converge. Key transport routes such as the North–South Corridor and the Middle Corridor meet here, linking the economic, energy, and political interests of Russia, Iran, Turkey, China, and the European Union. The United States has also shown growing interest, particularly through its support for infrastructure projects in the South Caucasus and initiatives related to the Zangezur Corridor. Yet logistics, energy, and trade risk losing their purpose if the region’s natural foundation disappears. An ecological collapse could undermine multibillion-dollar investments, threaten food security, and turn the Caspian from a zone of cooperation into a battleground over resources. That is why saving...

Desertification

Opinion: Turning Deserts Into Fields of Hope

Desertification is a global crisis threatening the livelihoods of 3.2 billion people worldwide. From China’s vast green belt along its largest desert to Central Asia’s unified efforts to halt land degradation on arid plains, the fight against encroaching sand continues. These initiatives offer hopeful examples of human endeavor in restoring degraded lands and safeguarding the future of our planet. In the heart of southern Xinjiang lies the Taklamakan Desert, a vast expanse known as the “sea of death” for its extreme arid and inhospitable conditions. Covering 330,000 square kilometers - an area almost the size of Finland - it is China’s largest desert and the world’s second-largest shifting desert. Here, dunes stretch endlessly, and sandstorm days comprise one-third of the year. For generations, the Taklamakan Desert has threatened surrounding villages, farmlands, and transportation routes, squeezing the living space of those who dwell on its edges. Nearly 80% of the desert sands are in constant motion, while seasonal floods from melting snow on the mountains add further instability, leaving homes and livelihoods at risk. The danger is long-term: at one point, the Taklamakan risked merging with the nearby Kumtag Desert, placing even greater pressure on human settlements. How To Contain The Sands Faced with the challenge, China launched an ambitious initiative: building a shield of vegetation to encircle the Taklamakan Desert, planting desert-tolerant species such as desert poplar, red willow, saxaul, and even roses. This massive project took more than 40 years to complete. By the end of 2023, 2,761 kilometers (about 1,716 miles) of the belt had been established. A year later, the final 285 kilometers - the most challenging section - was closed through the dedicated efforts of 600,000 people. On November 28, 2024, in Yutian County on the desert’s southern edge, the last seedlings were planted into the sands, completing a 3,046-kilometer green belt. This vast ecological barrier stabilizes the Taklamakan Desert’s edge, prevents sandstorms, and protects the fragile ecology. In addition, the green belt provides wild animals in the desert with safe conditions for survival, breeding, and migration. A Bold Green Strategy Against Desertification The Taklamakan Desert control project is a part of China's Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program, or TSFP, the world's largest afforestation program aimed at curbing desertification. Launched in 1978, this ambitious program seeks to slow the progress of desertification and reduce the frequency of sandstorms by planting vast stretches of trees and resilient plant species across the arid and semi-arid regions in northern China, where sandstorms pose a constant threat to local farmlands and residents. Official data shows that forest coverage in areas covered by the TSFP has risen from 5% in 1977 to 13.8% today. More than 60% of regions prone to soil erosion have been effectively controlled, and roughly 30 million hectares of farmland have been safeguarded from desert expansion. Turning Lands of Despair into Fields of Hope: A Shared Mission The challenges faced in northern China echo across the globe. From the Sahel in Africa to the Middle East and Central...

Environment

NCOC Wins Temporary Reprieve in Environmental Case in Kazakhstan

An Astana court has overturned a multi-billion-dollar environmental fine imposed on the North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC), the consortium developing the Kashagan oil field in Kazakhstan’s sector of the Caspian Sea. The ruling was based on procedural violations by Kazakhstan’s environmental authorities. However, the court made clear that the decision does not prevent the re-filing of claims once the procedural flaws are addressed. The NCOC consortium comprises KMG Kashagan B.V. (16.877%), Shell Kazakhstan Development B.V. (16.807%), Total EP Kazakhstan (16.807%), Agip Caspian Sea B.V. (16.807%), ExxonMobil Kazakhstan Inc. (16.807%), CNPC Kazakhstan B.V. (8.333%), and Inpex North Caspian Sea Ltd. (7.563%). In March 2023, the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources filed a $4.2 billion lawsuit against NCOC, based on a complaint from the Atyrau Region Department of Ecology. The agency alleged that more than 1.7 million tons of sulfur were being stored at the Kashagan site, far exceeding the 2022 legal limit of 730,000 tons. NCOC denied the allegations, stating that its sulfur production and storage practices fully complied with Kazakh legislation and international standards. In March 2025, an arbitration court ruled in favor of NCOC. The case then proceeded to the appellate level, where the Administrative Chamber of the Astana Court annulled the initial enforcement order due to violations of the Administrative Procedure Code by the environmental authorities. “It has been established that the authorized body committed violations of the Administrative Procedure Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan when issuing the order, which was the basis for overturning the contested order,” the court’s press service stated. The court emphasized that its ruling was procedural and did not address the substance of the environmental claims. “The court did not assess the validity of the conclusions of the Department of Ecology on the merits. Thus, the decision does not affect the substance of the violations identified and does not prevent the authorized body from taking further action after the procedural errors have been corrected,” the statement continued. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, this is not Kazakhstan’s only legal dispute with NCOC. An international arbitration case remains ongoing, in which the government is seeking $150 billion in lost profits, citing delays in the Kashagan field’s launch and the failure to meet oil delivery commitments.