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Trade

Uzbekistan and Russia Focus on Trade and Transit at Termez Meeting

Uzbekistan and Russia used a conference in Termez on March 30–31 to highlight the breadth of their relationship, from trade and industrial projects to transport links and regional planning. The meeting was organized by Uzbekistan’s Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies and Russia’s Kremlin-linked policy forum, the Valdai Discussion Club. Participants included Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Uzbek Deputy Foreign Minister Bobur Usmanov, ISRS director Eldor Aripov, Russian Ambassador Alexei Yerkhov, and other Uzbek and Russian officials, analysts, and business representatives. The meeting comes at a time of shifting regional dynamics, as Central Asian states recalibrate ties with Russia while managing new economic and political pressures from multiple directions. Termez sits by the Friendship Bridge on Uzbekistan’s border with Afghanistan and has become one of Tashkent’s main platforms for trade, logistics, and diplomacy aimed southward. The conference program focused on transport, infrastructure, interregional ties, and industrial cooperation, so the location matters. This aligns Uzbekistan’s relationship with Russia with a wider push for new routes across Eurasia and toward South Asia. The economic backdrop is also substantial. Official Uzbek figures put bilateral trade with Russia at around $13 billion in 2025, making Russia Uzbekistan’s second-largest trading partner after China. Uzbek reporting says that trade has grown sharply since 2017, with Russian investment in Uzbekistan approaching $5 billion. Officials have described the relationship as moving beyond simple trade toward industrial cooperation, technological partnerships, and longer value chains. The conference emphasized the growing role of direct regional links. Uzbek officials highlighted more than 200 regional initiatives worth over $4 billion and identified Tatarstan as a key partner in industry, petrochemicals, engineering, information technology, and education. Projects linked to the Himgrad industrial park model and branches of Kazan Federal University in Uzbekistan show how cooperation now extends through regions, universities, and industrial zones, not just central governments. Energy remains a key part of the relationship. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, on March 24, Uzbekistan and Russia advanced work on Uzbekistan’s planned nuclear power project in the Jizzakh region. Uzbekistan’s nuclear agency, Uzatom, and Russia’s Rosatom signed new documents and began initial concrete works for a small-capacity unit, describing the step as moving the project into a new implementation phase. Transit formed another major part of the agenda. Uzbek reporting states that participants discussed modernizing northern routes and developing a southern route through Afghanistan toward ports on the Indian Ocean. This fits Uzbekistan’s longer effort to turn Termez into a logistics hub for Afghan and South Asian trade. The city hosts the Termez International Trade Center, designed to simplify border trade and business access. The timing also reflects wider regional pressures. TCA previously reported that the war involving Iran is placing a strain on southern routes and increasing the importance of alternative corridors. In that context, a Russia–Uzbekistan meeting focused on trade and transport in Termez underscores how both countries are linking bilateral cooperation to shifting regional logistics. The meeting in Termez did not produce a major treaty or a...

Energy

Kyrgyzstan Turns to Coal Power Amid Electricity Shortages

Kyrgyzstan is turning to coal-fired electricity generation as a key strategy to address its chronic energy deficits, particularly acute during winter, when heating demand spikes and reliance on costly imports increases. While the country continues to expand hydropower capacity, the government is emphasizing the role of thermal power as a stable, year-round energy source. Unlike hydropower, which is vulnerable to fluctuating river flows worsened by climate change, coal-fired generation offers a more consistent electricity supply. On January 22, Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibrayev met with representatives of an international consortium that includes the German consulting group GPRC, along with NRP and KCG. The minister proposed the construction of thermal power plants at domestic coal sites. According to the Ministry of Energy, the consortium has expressed its intention to design, finance, and build three coal-fired power plants, each with a capacity of 350 MW for a total of 1,050 MW. The proposed facilities would utilize clean coal technologies aligned with international environmental standards. Before construction begins, specialists will assess coal quality and geological conditions at the proposed sites. Kyrgyzstan’s coal reserves are estimated at around 2 billion tons. In 2024, the country produced 4.396 million tons of coal, with nearly half mined in the Naryn region and the rest in Batken, Osh, and Jalal-Abad. The country’s largest coal deposit is Kara-Keche, a lignite mine in Naryn operated by the state-owned Kyrgyzkomur. In June 2025, Electric Stations OJSC, which generates about 86% of Kyrgyzstan’s electricity, announced a tender to build a 1,200 MW coal-fired power plant near Kara-Keche. The project was structured in two phases: the first involving two 300 MW units at a cost of $934.38 million, and the second, a 600 MW unit valued at $370.6 million. The proposed plant was expected to generate 7.8 billion kWh annually. However, the tender was declared invalid in September 2025 due to incomplete documentation from bidders. Despite the setback, the Ministry of Energy remains committed to attracting international investors, viewing coal-fired power as a transitional solution until long-term hydropower projects are fully operational. Kyrgyzstan exported 1.1 million tons of coal in 2024, valued at $52.7 million. Uzbekistan was the largest buyer, while exports to China surged to 118,200 tons, up from just 13,000 tons in 2023. As electricity demand rises and hydropower faces increasing climate-related constraints, officials see coal-based generation as a pragmatic measure to stabilize the national grid and bolster energy security during a critical transition period.

Water resources

Kazakhstan Trades Electricity for Water in Bid to Mitigate Summer Drought Risks

Central Asia is entering a new phase in the management of its water-energy nexus, moving from declarations to practical coordination. A trilateral protocol signed in Almaty by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan marked a significant step toward stabilizing the region’s water regime amid escalating climate risks. Brokered under Kazakhstan’s chairmanship, the agreement aims to balance the load on the Toktogul Reservoir, the main regulating structure of the Syr Darya basin. Kyrgyzstan typically increases winter water discharges to generate electricity, which reduces irrigation water availability downstream during summer. Under the new deal, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will supply Kyrgyzstan with electricity during winter, in return for Kyrgyzstan's commitment to store water and ensure its release during the 2026 growing season. The Almaty Protocol complements the existing plan for filling the Shardara Reservoir, which aims to accumulate 11 cubic kilometers of water by April 1, 2026. Achieving this target hinges on Toktogul’s operations. Without external support, Kyrgyzstan’s energy infrastructure would struggle to meet the requirement. Supplemental electricity from Astana and Tashkent thus forms the economic backbone of this arrangement. Longstanding disparities in regional water and energy needs remain a source of instability. Kyrgyzstan requires water in winter for hydropower, while Kazakhstan, especially its Turkestan and Kyzylorda regions, relies on it in summer for irrigation. Recent water shortages have pushed the countries toward more pragmatic coordination. Uzbekistan has committed to managing the technical conditions for transit and balancing inter-system flows. Despite facing its own energy shortfall and aging infrastructure, Kazakhstan is participating in regional stabilization to avert socio-economic risks in its southern provinces. External factors are adding urgency to regional cooperation. Afghanistan’s construction of the Qosh-Tepa Canal is expected to reduce the Amu Darya’s water balance by 20-25%. Although Uzbekistan is most directly affected, the resulting pressure on water systems could also impact the Syr Darya, on which southern Kazakhstan heavily depends. Internally, Kazakhstan faces persistent challenges. Water loss during transport reaches up to 40-50% due to outdated canal infrastructure. Rice cultivation continues in the water-intensive Kyzylorda region, while water-saving technologies are used on only about 30% of irrigated land. These new agreements suggest that Central Asian countries can rapidly implement collective mechanisms in response to shared threats. In effect, elements of a regional Water and Energy Consortium are already operating in a de facto, ad hoc manner. Water, energy, and food security are increasingly seen as interconnected resources requiring coordinated governance. For Kazakhstan, the priority now is to institutionalize these provisional agreements. If the “electricity-for-water” model can be formalized into a durable framework, it could stand as one of the most significant accomplishments of the country’s regional diplomacy.

Energy

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan Sign Trilateral Deal on Water and Energy Cooperation

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have signed a trilateral protocol on water and energy cooperation, covering the upcoming winter heating period and the 2026 agricultural season. The agreement was formalized at a meeting of the countries’ energy and water ministers held in Almaty on November 22. With water levels at Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul Hydropower Plant (HPP) reservoir critically low, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have agreed to supply electricity to Kyrgyzstan during the winter months. This will allow Kyrgyzstan to reduce electricity generation during peak heating demand and conserve water in the Toktogul Reservoir. The stored water will later be released downstream to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan during the 2026 growing season to ensure consistent irrigation for farmland in their southern regions. The Toktogul HPP, located on the Naryn River, a key tributary of the Syr Darya, is Kyrgyzstan’s largest power station, supplying about 40% of the country’s electricity. It plays a dual role: meeting domestic energy needs and regulating water flows critical to downstream agricultural systems. In winter, Kyrgyzstan typically ramps up power output to meet heating demand, often at the expense of reservoir levels, which can compromise irrigation capacity the following spring. Under the new protocol, Uzbekistan has also pledged to support regional electricity balancing and ensure transit capacity. Earlier, the three countries agreed to facilitate cross-border electricity flows, including Russian electricity transiting to Kyrgyzstan via Kazakhstan, and Turkmen electricity reaching Kyrgyzstan through Uzbekistan’s transmission grid. Participants in the Almaty meeting emphasized that the trilateral agreement reflects a spirit of good neighborliness and is aimed at enhancing regional energy security and stability. The agreement is particularly critical for Kyrgyzstan, which faces persistent electricity shortages, especially during the winter when electric heating is widely used. On November 18, Kyrgyzstan completed the full modernization of the Toktogul HPP, with the commissioning of its fourth generating unit. The upgrade raised the facility’s total capacity from 1,200 MW to 1,440 MW. In parallel, Kyrgyzstan is advancing construction of the Kambarata-1 HPP, a major regional project being developed jointly with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Once completed, Kambarata-1 will have a generation capacity of 1,860 MW and produce 5.6 billion kWh annually.

Energy

Uzbekistan and SOCAR Advance $2 Billion Ustyurt Energy Project

Uzbekistan’s Minister of Energy, Jorabek Mirzamahmudov, has outlined the country’s deepening energy cooperation with Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR, highlighting progress on a recently signed Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) for the Ustyurt region and broader plans in petrochemicals and electricity trade. In an interview with Azerbaijani media outlet Report, Mirzamahmudov confirmed that Uzbekistan, SOCAR, and Uzbekneftegaz have already established a joint operating company to oversee the Ustyurt project. Fieldwork is expected to accelerate soon, with seismic surveys covering over 3,000 linear kilometers set to begin before year-end, followed by the drilling of the first exploration well. The PSA structure splits ownership equally between the state and investors, with SOCAR and Uzbekneftegaz as the primary partners. British energy major BP has shown interest and is in preliminary discussions to join the consortium. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated in August that SOCAR had commenced work at an Uzbek oil field following the contract signing. He expressed optimism about potential discoveries within the next one to two years. Mirzamahmudov acknowledged that earlier data on Ustyurt had not suggested large hydrocarbon reserves but said that modern interpretation techniques have revealed greater potential. While refraining from early reserve estimates, he said SOCAR specialists are optimistic about promising oil indicators. If confirmed, Uzbekistan plans to build a new refinery. Total investment in the Ustyurt project is projected at around $2 billion. The minister said SOCAR and Uzbekneftegaz would finance the project’s initial stages, with BP possibly joining later. He did not rule out future collaboration with Azerbaijan on major fields like Shah Deniz or Absheron but emphasized that Uzbekistan’s current priority is increasing domestic production. In the long term, joint ventures in third countries are also being considered. Trans-Caspian Energy and Renewables Push Mirzamahmudov also discussed the proposed trans-Caspian high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cable project aimed at exporting renewable energy to Europe. A joint venture involving Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan has already been formed. The Asian Development Bank is assisting in selecting a consultant for the project’s feasibility study. Several countries, including Saudi Arabia, have expressed interest. Uzbekistan currently generates more than 20% of its electricity from renewables and aims to increase that share to 54% by 2030. In the Ustyurt region alone, wind projects totaling over 2.5 GW are under development, with the first 100 MW already operational. The government also plans to deploy hybrid wind-solar-storage systems with a minimum capacity of 5 GW. Localization and Petrochemical Cooperation Mirzamahmudov noted that future oil and gas processing facilities could be localized in special economic zones in Bukhara, Karakalpakstan, and Khorezm, which are currently being evaluated for infrastructure and logistics readiness. A joint venture with SOCAR Trading is already exporting polymer products, and ongoing discussions aim to expand cooperation in fuel production and fertilizer manufacturing.

Energy

Kazakhstan to Launch Unified Digital Platform for Energy Sector Management

Kazakhstan is moving forward with plans to establish EnergyTech, a unified national digital platform for managing its fuel and energy complex. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov announced the initiative during a recent government meeting. EnergyTech will consolidate all elements of the sector, including power generation, subsoil use, refining, and coal, on a single platform aligned with QazTech standards. The full development and industrial launch are scheduled for 2026-2027. According to Akkenzhenov, two modules of the platform are already in pilot operation. The first, a monitoring service for heating season readiness, provides real-time data on assets, equipment condition, and repair planning. It has generated digital registries of generation facilities and is expected to reduce inspection times and lower the risk of seasonal accidents by 25%. The second module streamlines the process of submitting and reviewing tariff approval requests. By eliminating paper workflows and enhancing transparency, the system has reduced approval times, cut operating costs, and lowered the administrative burden on market participants by 56%. The pilot covers 83 combined heat and power (CHP) plants. Akkenzhenov also highlighted the low penetration of automated electricity metering systems among consumers. To address this, the government plans to install 4 million smart meters across 27 electricity suppliers within three years. This is projected to yield an annual economic benefit of $105 million by reducing regulatory losses. Parallel efforts are underway to implement automated heat metering. More than 30,000 smart devices are needed for 52 heat supply organizations. The minister noted that, based on international benchmarks, comprehensive metering can cut heat consumption by up to 15%. In addition, the ministry is planning to establish a sector-specific information security center and a national operator for energy-related information and communication infrastructure. Artificial intelligence is also central to the government’s digital transformation strategy. An AI acceleration group has been formed within the energy ministry, along with an AI alliance that includes global technology companies. The estimated economic impact of these AI projects ranges from $4.6 million to $78 million. Both are currently undergoing regulatory approval and are being prepared for broader implementation. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan is also exploring the use of AI tools in the legislative process.