Export/Import - The Times Of Central Asia

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Fuel Exports

Kazakhstan Plans to Export Up to a Third of Its Fuel Production by 2040

The government of Kazakhstan has approved a long-term development strategy for the oil refining industry for the period 2025-2040, significantly increasing its forecast for petroleum product exports. The new plan triples previous export projections, aiming for exports to account for 30% of total production by 2040. According to the strategy, key priorities include expanding refining capacity and boosting exports to China, India, and neighboring Central Asian countries. By comparison, in May 2024, the Ministry of Energy had presented a separate draft strategy looking toward 2050, which proposed limiting fuel exports to 10%, and only in cases where domestic supply exceeded demand. Refinery Modernization and Capacity Goals The new strategy builds on recent progress. Following the modernization of Kazakhstan’s three largest refineries, Atyrau, Pavlodar, and Shymkent, total oil processing capacity reached 17 million tons per year. The plan envisions boosting this figure to 39 million tons annually by 2040. “The refining depth has already reached 89%, and the motor fuel produced now meets Euro-4 standards and higher. These improvements have allowed us to meet 90-95% of domestic demand and created favorable conditions for the export of high value-added products,” the Ministry of Energy stated. The strategy calls for expanding existing facilities and constructing a new petrochemical complex to raise refining depth to 94%. This will ensure full domestic fuel coverage amid projected annual demand growth of 1.5-2%, driven by urbanization and industrial development. A major focus will be the advancement of Kazakhstan’s oil and gas chemical industry, including the production of polymers, fertilizers, and other high-value products. Up to $5 billion is expected to be invested in this sector. “The strategy is designed to attract foreign investment, particularly given the country’s reserves of 30 billion barrels of oil. In the context of the global energy transition, this will position Kazakhstan as a regional leader in hydrocarbon processing and enhance economic resilience to global commodity price fluctuations,” the ministry emphasized. Implementation is scheduled to begin in 2025 with pilot projects for refinery digitization. Current Production and Export Landscape In 2024, Kazakhstan’s refineries produced 13 million tons of petroleum products, 1% more than in 2023, according to national oil and gas company KazMunayGas. This included 4.3 million tons each of gasoline and other fuels, and 4.4 million tons of diesel. Kazakhstan also imported 1.2 million tons of fuel from Russia. Prior to the reintroduction of export restrictions in 2024, the country exported 13,500 tons of motor fuel. Similar bans were in place in 2021, 2023, and 2024, meaning Kazakhstan’s fuel exports effectively occurred only in 2020 (nearly 120,000 tons) and 2022 (1,800 tons). As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan is planning to invest $15 billion in its oil and gas chemical sector as part of six major projects aimed at strengthening downstream capacity and export potential.

Energy deficit

Central Asia Faces Growing Energy Deficit

Central Asia is heading toward a serious energy crunch. According to the Logistan.info portal, regional demand for imported natural gas is expected to reach 25 billion cubic meters annually by 2030. This looming shortfall is driven by rapid population growth, around one million people per year, industrial expansion, declining domestic production, and the deteriorating state of aging infrastructure. Recent accidents in Bishkek, Tashkent, Dushanbe, and Ekibastuz illustrate the scale and urgency of the problem. Kazakhstan: Rising Output, Falling Exports Kazakhstan produced 59.2 billion cubic meters of gas in 2024, representing a 6.4% increase from the previous year. However, nearly half of this was reinjected into oil reservoirs to sustain production. Only 29 billion cubic meters were available for domestic consumption. Soaring internal demand has already led to a sharp decline in exports to China, which fell 40% to 8.7 billion cubic meters. Uzbekistan: From Exporter to Importer Uzbekistan's situation is even more precarious. In 2024, the country produced 44.6 billion cubic meters of gas and 713,400 tons of oil, figures that are in decline, dropping 4.5% and 8.5% respectively. To cover the shortfall, Tashkent has turned to Russia and Turkmenistan, purchasing $1.7 billion worth of gas. Uzbekneftegaz expects to produce just 26.5 billion cubic meters of commercial gas in 2025, far short of projected domestic needs. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan produce virtually no hydrocarbons and rely entirely on imports of these resources. Meanwhile, demand continues to grow in tandem with their populations, and domestic energy generation falls short of even basic consumption needs. Turkmenistan remains the region’s top gas exporter, sending 41.3 billion cubic meters abroad in 2024. However, Ashgabat’s ability to increase exports is limited by its own growing domestic consumption, binding long-term contracts with China, and a lack of large-scale infrastructure development. Investment, Delays, and Structural Challenges While Central Asian governments have announced plans for new hydroelectric plants, combined heat and power stations, and nuclear power facilities, tangible progress remains slow. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have yet to break ground on any of their proposed nuclear power projects. Key obstacles include a shortage of qualified personnel, water scarcity, environmental concerns, and, above all, insufficient funding. Without substantial foreign investment, modernization efforts are likely to stall. To ease financial pressures, countries in the region have begun raising gas and electricity tariffs. These price hikes aim to offset upgrade costs but have provoked public backlash and fueled inflation. In Uzbekistan, for instance, inflation accelerated to 15% in May 2025, with energy prices cited as the primary driver. The Russian Option Forecasts for regional gas imports remain imprecise, but analysts estimate the need could rise to 20-25 billion cubic meters annually by 2030. Russia appears poised to become the main supplier, though details of supply agreements, including pricing, volumes, and terms, have not been disclosed. Central Asian governments are attempting to keep cooperation with Moscow strictly within the economic sphere, wary of entangling political dependencies. As a result, the region faces a dual challenge: securing energy stability through...

Bilateral Trade

Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan Trade Soars More Than 15-Fold in 2025

Trade between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan has surged dramatically in 2025, increasing more than fifteenfold compared to the same period last year, according to the Customs Service of Tajikistan, as reported by Asia-Plus. From January to May, total bilateral trade reached $6.35 million, up from just $405,100 during the same period in 2024. Tajik exports to Kyrgyzstan amounted to $1.59 million, while imports from Kyrgyzstan totaled $4.76 million. Analysts attribute the sharp rise to improving political relations and the state visit of Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov to Dushanbe on July 8-9, at the invitation of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon. Bilateral trade has experienced fluctuations over the past decade. Peak volumes were recorded in 2018-2019, when annual trade neared $60 million, with more than $48 million in Kyrgyz exports to Tajikistan and over $14 million in Tajik exports. Since 2020, however, trade had been in decline, dropping to $26.2 million in 2021, $15 million in 2022, and just $11.4 million in 2023. Figures for 2024 remained low at approximately $11.6 million. The strong recovery in 2025 is largely credited to progress on border delimitation, the opening of two new border checkpoints, and renewed political dialogue. Experts also cite a series of new intergovernmental agreements as contributing factors. On June 30, during the visit of Tajikistan’s Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin to Cholpon-Ata, both sides reaffirmed their commitment to expand trade and economic cooperation. A new target has been set: increasing annual trade to $500 million. Since the beginning of the year, the two countries have signed 15 agreements, including border-related protocols and measures to strengthen both political and humanitarian ties.

Jewelry

Kyrgyzstan’s Jewelry Industry Emerges from the Shadows

The jewelry industry in Kyrgyzstan is experiencing rapid growth, marked by a surge in exports, an expanded geographic reach, and a significant rise in foreign trade operations, according to official statistics. According to the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyz jewelers quadrupled the volume of foreign trade in jewelry made from precious metals during the first four months of 2025. This figure encompasses both exports and imports. Approximately 100 kilograms of jewelry, valued at around $600,000, were exported. Export revenues increased fourfold compared to the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, imports reached 15.6 tons, worth $5.8 million, more than double the previous year’s figures. Russia and Italy were the primary destinations for Kyrgyz jewelry exports. Business Legalization and Tax Incentives Stalbek Akmatov, president of the Kyrgyz Jewelers' Union, told The Times of Central Asia that this growth was driven by the industry’s formalization, which allowed jewelers to operate legally, pay taxes, and submit accurate reports. "First of all, I would like to thank our authorities, the Jogorku Kenesh and the Cabinet of Ministers," Akmatov said. "Recently, significant changes were introduced to the Tax Code and legislation concerning precious metals. Instead of three separate taxes, VAT, sales tax, and income tax, a single tax of 0.25% has now been implemented." Akmatov noted that the new tax policy has provided a substantial boost to production and exports, while significantly reducing the size of the shadow economy, which previously accounted for over 90% of the sector. Experts estimate that less than half the industry now remains informal. Entry into the Kazakh Market Kyrgyz jewelers are also exploring new markets. Akmatov highlighted that one company has already exhibited twice at a jewelry fair in Almaty and has begun selling products featuring national designs. "The current volume of exports to Kazakhstan is small, just a few kilograms, but it's only the beginning. The potential in this direction is enormous," he told TCA. Persistent Challenges: Scrap Gold and Regulation Despite these advancements, challenges remain. One major issue is the high cost of scrap gold for local producers. As was the case five years ago, scrap gold is sold with a 5% markup over the London gold price, even though Kyrgyzstan annually produces several dozen tons of gold and even more silver. Akmatov also pointed to restrictive regulations on the circulation of precious metals. "If gold could be traded freely like a currency, our sales would increase significantly," he stated. The Jewellers' Union is currently in talks with the Ministry of Economy and Commerce on liberalizing precious metals circulation within the country.

Agriculture

Kazakhstan Imposes Temporary Ban on Chicken Egg Imports

Starting April 9, Kazakhstan will impose a six-month ban on the import of fresh chicken eggs, aimed at supporting local poultry farms during a seasonally weak demand period. The measure, signed into effect by Minister of Agriculture Aidarbek Saparov, is outlined in Order No. 101 and targets eggs classified under code TN VED 040721. The ban applies to imports from both non-EAEU countries and fellow Eurasian Economic Union member states and covers all transportation modes. However, transit shipments through Kazakhstan and the movement of eggs between EAEU countries via Kazakh territory are exempt. Why the Ban Was Imposed The Ministry of Agriculture said the decision is intended to support local producers during spring and summer, when demand for eggs traditionally falls. With a seasonal influx of fresh produce and a larger share of household-produced goods on the market, egg prices often dip below cost, putting poultry farms under financial strain. Additionally, warmer temperatures shorten product shelf life and make it technologically difficult for producers to scale down operations. This often leads to warehouse overstocking. To counter these issues, the Interdepartmental Commission on Foreign Trade Policy approved the temporary import restrictions. “In order to protect the domestic market and the sustainability of enterprises, the Interdepartmental Commission on Foreign Trade Policy approved the establishment of temporary restrictive measures,” the ministry said. Advance Planning and Strategic Goals Discussions around restricting egg imports began in February 2025 as part of a broader government initiative to support domestic producers and combat gray imports. Officials expect the ban to help stabilize domestic prices, which surged nearly 12% year-on-year as of October 2024 due to seasonal fluctuations. Prices typically fall in summer but rise again in autumn to offset earlier losses. In a bid to strengthen long-term food security, construction of a new egg and mixed fodder production plant will begin in Turkestan region in 2024. Once operational, the facility is expected to produce around 200 million eggs annually. Authorities Confident in Domestic Supply Despite the potential for price hikes, Minister of Trade and Integration Arman Shakkaliev assured the public there will be no shortage of eggs or poultry products. According to the ministry, domestic producers are capable of fully meeting the country’s summer demand. The government sees the temporary import ban as a strategic tool to stabilize the agro-industrial sector, shield local producers from unfair competition, and promote self-sufficiency in food production.

Trump Tariffs

Trump Tariffs: A Barrier for Kyrgyzstan, or an Opportunity?

Akylbek Japarov, former head of Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers, has described the United States’ newly imposed trade duties as an "economic earthquake" already reshaping global markets. However, he sees an opportunity for Kyrgyzstan, which faces a comparatively low U.S. tariff rate of just 10%. A Regional Advantage Japarov argues that China has been hit hardest by the new U.S. tariffs. “Following the introduction of duties, Chinese goods are 20-35 percent less competitive, not due to the nominal tariff alone, but because of higher overall costs, disrupted logistics, contract renegotiations, and increased risk premiums,” he explained in a Facebook post. “Part of that market is being freed up, for someone else.” Kyrgyzstan, along with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, faces a 10% U.S. tariff rate. In contrast, Kazakhstan’s goods are subject to 27% duties. Japarov sees this as a competitive edge that Kyrgyzstan could leverage to integrate into new supply chains, especially while global players are adjusting to the new trade landscape. The former prime minister believes the country is well-positioned geographically, situated between China, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and South Asia, with low production costs and access to regional markets. While Kyrgyzstan’s total trade turnover stands at around $16 billion, the U.S. accounts for only 4% of that figure. Key exports to the U.S. include shoes, tobacco products, animal-derived goods, and pharmaceuticals. Japarov suggests Kyrgyz businesses focus on re-exports, product localization, and packaging. He calls for investments in logistics and customs certification, and for the government to craft a new export strategy. “While some see a threat, others are building export channels. While some are calculating losses, others are increasing production,” he said. An Opening for Business, Not Policy In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Sergei Ponomarev, president of the Kyrgyz Association of Markets, Trade and Services, said the new tariffs should be viewed as part of a larger negotiation process. “The trade war has begun. China, the European Union, and other countries are already responding. But the duties have also triggered a wave of global inflation. These are high risks but also great opportunities,” he said. Ponomarev noted that Kyrgyzstan’s limited integration with the global economy means it will likely experience only indirect effects. Still, he pointed to past examples of adaptive trade strategies. Before joining the EAEU, Kyrgyz entrepreneurs often re-labeled Chinese products as “Made in Kyrgyzstan” for resale in Russia. In some cases, Chinese producers even falsely labeled their goods as Kyrgyz to benefit from preferential access to the Russian market. He suggested similar tactics could re-emerge under the current trade environment. “Some businesses may exploit the 10% duty. Chinese goods could be repackaged in Kyrgyzstan or processed through joint ventures,” Ponomarev said. “For example, a sweater could arrive from China, sleeves sewn on in Kyrgyzstan, and the product re-exported as local.” Such methods, he noted, may be feasible in low-tech sectors like apparel, but Kyrgyzstan lacks the skilled labor force needed to replicate this in high-tech manufacturing. Ponomarev concluded that while Japarov’s ideas are...