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Economy

Kazakhstan Freezes Projects with Iran Amid Military Conflict

Kazakhstan has suspended several joint projects with Iran amid ongoing military hostilities in the country, Deputy Foreign Minister Arman Issetov has announced. The decision effectively puts on hold plans to expand trade and economic cooperation between Astana and Tehran, despite previously stated ambitions to significantly increase bilateral trade. On December 11, 2025, during the Kazakhstan-Iran business forum in Astana, Tokayev said bilateral trade had exceeded $340 million the previous year. The two sides set an initial goal of raising trade to $1 billion, with a longer-term aim of doubling that figure. However, the escalation of military activity in Iran has forced both sides to reconsider these plans. “The situation is currently very complicated. At this point, many of our projects with Iran have been frozen due to the country being in a state of war. As a result, our businesses and entrepreneurs are now in a wait-and-see position,” Issetov said. “Kazakhstan is not suffering major losses, as the volumes were relatively small and did not significantly impact the national economy. Nevertheless, given our strong partnership with Iran, there is an effect, though not a substantial one,” he added. Despite the growth in trade, Iran’s share in Kazakhstan’s foreign economic relations remains limited. According to the Ministry of National Economy, exports to Iran in 2025 amounted to $239.3 million, while imports totaled $191 million, equivalent to roughly 0.3% of the country’s total foreign trade turnover. The agricultural sector accounted for the bulk of trade: approximately 90% of Kazakhstan’s exports to Iran consisted of wheat and barley. In the first ten months of last year alone, grain shipments reached $280 million, exceeding the total agricultural trade volume for 2024 ($220 million). Government officials believe these volumes can be redirected to alternative markets if necessary. From a logistics perspective, Iran is not considered a critical transit route for Kazakhstan. This was previously confirmed by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin. “I don’t think the conflict will have any impact on our logistics. Shipments through the Persian Gulf were never dominant for us,” he said. Despite its currently limited role, Iran had been viewed as a promising direction for the development of transport corridors. In December 2025, Tokayev announced plans to build a transport and logistics terminal at Shahid Rajaee Port, which was intended to provide direct access for Kazakh exports to global markets. Plans also included strengthening links between Kazakhstan’s ports of Aktau and Kuryk and Iran’s ports of Amirabad and Anzali, as well as integrating Bandar Abbas and Chabahar into regional logistics chains. “It is important for us to develop multimodal corridors connecting Central Asia with the Persian Gulf, and the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway plays a key role in this,” Tokayev previously stated. According to his estimates, cargo traffic along this route could have doubled by 2030. For now, those plans are effectively on hold.

TCA Interviews

Kazakhstan’s Logistics: Mukhtar Tolegen on Infrastructure and Reform

Kazakhstan has invested tens of billions of dollars in transport infrastructure in recent years and has positioned itself as a key transit link between Europe and Asia. Yet the country still ranks in the middle of the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index (LPI). Why have these large investments not produced a sharper improvement, and what reforms are needed to change that? The Times of Central Asia spoke with Mukhtar Tolegen, executive director for transport logistics at the Union of Transport Workers of Kazakhstan, “KAZLOGISTICS.” TCA: What is Kazakhstan's current position in the LPI, and how has it changed? Mukhtar: In the World Bank's 2023 LPI ranking, Kazakhstan ranks 79th out of 139 countries, with an overall score of 2.7 on a five-point scale. This represents a decline from the previous ranking, when the country ranked 71st. It's important to note that the index's methodology was updated in 2023. In addition to expert assessments, the calculation now includes real-world cargo tracking data, including GPS-based data. This made the ranking more objective and simultaneously increased competition between countries. Despite its decline, Kazakhstan is demonstrating steady progress in a number of areas. This is primarily due to the development of transport infrastructure, the construction of new highways, the modernization of checkpoints, and the creation of transport and logistics centers. Strengthening the country's transit potential within international transport corridors, including the Middle Corridor, the North-South Corridor, and the China-Kazakhstan-Europe route, is also playing a significant role. At the same time, digitalization of logistics is rapidly advancing, including electronic customs solutions, cargo tracking systems, and other technological tools. An additional driver is the growing interest of international investors, including in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative. TCA: How does a country's position in the ranking affect its economy and investment attractiveness? Mukhtar: The LPI index is not simply a reflection of the state of the logistics system, but an important indicator of a country's economic competitiveness. The higher a country's ranking, the lower its logistics costs for exports and imports, the faster cargo flows across borders, and the higher the level of trust among international partners and investors. Low scores, on the other hand, indicate bottlenecks, for example, in customs procedures or infrastructure. Under such conditions, large international companies may choose alternative routes, which reduces the country's transit potential. Thus, the LPI serves as a tool that directly influences the development of international trade, investment attractiveness, and the country's strategic position in the global market. TCA: In which index components is Kazakhstan showing progress, and where are challenges remaining? Mukhtar: The LPI index is based on six key components, and the dynamics of these components in Kazakhstan remain uneven. Quality of Infrastructure Steady progress is being observed here, driven by large-scale investments in the transport system. The modernization of the Dostyk-Moiynty railway section has significantly increased the capacity of the Kazakhstan-China route. Projects are underway to build new lines, including a bypass of Almaty, as well as the Moiynty-Kyzylzhar, Darbaza-Maktaaral, and Ayagoz-Bakhty routes....

Transport and Logistics

Kazakhstan to Build New International Cargo Airport Near China Border

Kazakhstan plans to construct a new international cargo and passenger airport in the Zhetysu region, near the Chinese border, as part of efforts to develop a major multimodal aviation and logistics hub along key transit routes linking China, Central Asia, and Europe. The facility will be located within the Khorgos–Eastern Gate Special Economic Zone (SEZ), a strategic logistics cluster on the New Silk Road. According to Dias Esdauletov, Deputy Akim of the region, the project is one of the most significant and promising investment initiatives currently underway and aims to establish Kazakhstan as a central player in Eurasian trade. The project is being developed by the Kazakh-German joint venture Skyhansa LLP and is coordinated by the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The airport is designed to complement the existing railway and road infrastructure in the SEZ, enabling faster movement of high-value and time-sensitive cargo, and bolstering regional passenger transport and tourism. Once completed, it will integrate rail, road, and air links in a single multimodal logistics system. Construction will be carried out in three stages. The first stage, set for completion by mid-2027, will include the development of core airfield infrastructure, a cargo terminal, a fuel complex, an aviation technical center, and a business center with hotel facilities. It will also integrate the airport with the SEZ’s existing rail and road networks. The second stage will expand the cargo and passenger infrastructure, build additional logistics and storage areas, increase refueling capacity, and attract airline and logistics partners. In the third stage, the airport is expected to evolve into a full-fledged international aviation hub with an expanded route network, full-service and MRO (maintenance, repair, and overhaul) operations, and deep integration with the SEZ’s industrial and commercial zones. Esdauletov highlighted the importance of the Air-Rail-Auto-Air transport model for improving logistics efficiency, particularly for sectors such as e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, and electronics. Seamless transitions between transport modes can dramatically reduce door-to-door delivery times and costs. Kazakhstan has already demonstrated the viability of such multimodal solutions. In 2014, KTZ Express piloted a successful international cargo transit from China to Europe via a rail-air corridor. HP products were shipped from Chongqing to Almaty by rail and then flown to Amsterdam, completing the 9,900 km journey in just seven days. The new airport is expected to ease congestion in the Almaty transport hub and significantly improve cargo throughput capacity in southeastern Kazakhstan. In the medium and long term, authorities anticipate strong growth in both cargo and passenger volumes, driven by increasing transit flows between China, Central Asia, Europe, and the United States, as well as ongoing shifts in global logistics routes. To mitigate risks, the regional government has launched comprehensive preparatory work. Skyhansa has already secured 800 hectares of land within the Khorgos-Eastern Gate SEZ. The project is expected to create approximately 700 jobs.

U.S.-Kazakhstan Relations

Kazakhstan Strengthens Role as U.S. Key Trade Partner in Central Asia

Kazakhstan has emerged as the United States’ primary economic partner in Central Asia, accounting for the vast majority of regional exports to the U.S. and serving as the leading destination for American imports, according to Finprom.kz. While Central Asia’s share of total U.S. trade remains small, Kazakhstan’s role within the region is increasingly dominant. Kazakhstan Accounts for Over 96% of Central Asia’s U.S. Exports In 2024, Kazakhstan was responsible for 96.7% of Central Asia’s exports to the United States, totaling approximately $2.4 billion out of a regional total of $2.5 billion. Uzbekistan, the next largest exporter, contributed just $44.4 million. The trend is similar for U.S. goods entering the region. Kazakhstan imported $1.1 billion worth of U.S. goods in 2024, or 62.3% of all American exports to Central Asia. Uzbekistan followed with $380.8 million, while Turkmenistan and Tajikistan imported $82.2 million and $56.8 million, respectively. Despite this strong bilateral exchange, Central Asia remains a small player in U.S. global trade. In 2024, the U.S. recorded $3.27 trillion in goods imports and $2.06 trillion in exports, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Even so, U.S.–Kazakhstan trade has grown meaningfully in recent years. Between 2019 and 2024, the U.S. share of Kazakhstan’s total trade rose from 2.3% to around 3%. Bilateral trade peaked in 2024 at $4.2 billion, the highest level in six years, with U.S. exports to Kazakhstan accounting for 53.2% of the total. Trade Growth and 2025 Downturn That growth slowed sharply in 2025. From January to August, total trade between the two countries fell to $2.1 billion, a 25.8% drop compared to the same period in 2024. Kazakhstan’s exports to the U.S. accounted for much of the decline, falling to $749.7 million in the first nine months of the year - about half the level recorded the previous year. Oil and oil products saw the steepest drop, falling 3.5 times to $269.1 million. Exports of uranium, silver, ferroalloys, tantalum, and titanium also declined, though these remain important categories. By contrast, U.S. exports to Kazakhstan remained relatively stable. Goods shipments fell just 4.8% year-on-year, totaling approximately $1.7 billion from January through September. U.S. exports to Kazakhstan continue to consist primarily of high-value manufactured goods, including vehicles, aircraft, agricultural machinery, computers, telecommunications equipment, and medical devices. Pharmaceuticals stood out in 2025, with American shipments of medicines and vaccines more than doubling to $249.3 million in the first nine months of the year. Investment and Business Cooperation Deepen Alongside trade, investment, and business cooperation between the two countries is also deepening. According to the Kazakh Prime Minister’s office, more than 600 companies with U.S. capital were operating in the country as of late 2025 – a large increase over the previous year. The number of Kazakh-American joint ventures rose by 5.6% over the same period. U.S. companies are active in a range of sectors, including IT, manufacturing, education, consulting, and trade. While the United States is not among Kazakhstan’s top trading partners by volume, the relationship is seen as strategically important. Amid...

SCO Summit

Uzbekistan President Urges SCO Reform and Regional Unity in Tianjin

On September 1, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev participated in the regular meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), held in Tianjin, China, according to the presidential press service. The summit brought together leaders of member states to discuss the future of the organization, regional stability, and responses to global challenges. Opening the meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Uzbekistan on its Independence Day and commended the country’s progress under Mirziyoyev’s leadership. In his address, Mirziyoyev stressed the need for the SCO to adapt to a world marked by growing geopolitical tensions, a crisis of trust, and the weakening of multilateral institutions. He stressed that closer solidarity among SCO members is crucial for ensuring peace and stability in the region. Among his key proposals was the adoption of a declaration on multilateral partnership for nuclear security. The initiative is intended to enhance cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy and support global non-proliferation efforts within the UN framework. Mirziyoyev also called for the resumption of interior minister-level meetings within the SCO, revisions to the existing agreement on combating organized crime, and the drafting of a new program to fight drug addiction, with targets extending to 2030. On Afghanistan, he proposed reviving the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group to promote dialogue and launch socio-economic initiatives aimed at stabilizing the country. On economic cooperation, Mirziyoyev urged SCO member states to sign an agreement simplifying trade procedures and to develop new financial mechanisms to support industrial and infrastructure projects. He proposed the creation of a regional center for critical raw materials, a unified energy consortium, a network of venture capital funds for start-up development, and a digital portal to promote cross-border investment and connect businesses across the SCO space. Transport and connectivity featured prominently in his speech. Mirziyoyev advocated for the establishment of a “common transport space” and strengthening of the North-South and East-West corridors linking Central Asia with the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean regions. He also called for the launch of regional platforms dedicated to climate adaptation and green technology development, alongside new initiatives in culture, education, and tourism to deepen people-to-people ties across the SCO.

Trump Tariffs

Trump’s 100% Tariffs May Target Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan

U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled a new wave of sanctions against Russia, including the potential imposition of 100% tariffs on its trading partners, which could affect Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and other former Soviet states. Who Could Be Affected? On July 15, President Trump announced an escalation in U.S. arms deliveries to Ukraine and warned of intensified sanctions against Russia. If no progress is made in resolving the conflict within 50 days, the U.S. will implement additional measures, including secondary tariffs of up to 100% on countries trading with Russia. Experts warn that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan may be particularly vulnerable. Although not among Russia’s largest trading partners, these countries maintain extensive commercial ties with Moscow. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), China, India, and Turkey accounted for 74 percent of Russia's fossil fuel revenue in 2024. Oil exports totaled €104 billion, petroleum products €75 billion, gas €40 billion, and coal €23 billion. Despite multiple sanctions packages, the European Union continues to import Russian energy. In 2024, the EU spent €21.9 billion on Russian oil and gas, just 1% less than in 2023. Over the same period, EU financial assistance to Ukraine amounted to €18.7 billion, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Yet Trump may spare Russia’s largest trading partners. In recent months, he has taken steps to impose severe tariffs on the European Union and China, only to reverse course under pressure from business groups and concerns about global trade disruptions. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan received formal notification from the U.S. on July 7 that a 25% tariff on its goods will take effect from August 1, 2025. This raises the possibility that smaller economies in Russia’s orbit may become targets of U.S. economic retaliation. Already in the Crosshairs Kazakh analyst Olzhas Baidildinov noted that trade between Kazakhstan and Russia totaled $27.8 billion in 2024, with $18.2 billion in exports from Russia and $9.5 billion from Kazakhstan. "Such figures certainly cannot escape the attention of OFAC,” Baidildinov wrote, referring to the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. “European sanctions apply only within Europe. However, Kazakhstan continues to import Russian oil, gas, and petroleum products. Secondary sanctions, as I’ve previously warned, are merely a matter of minor adjustments to existing measures,” he added. Trump’s administration may also be overlooking Kazakhstan’s unique geographic and economic ties to Russia. The two countries share the world’s longest continuous land border, over 7,500 kilometers, and are closely connected through pipelines, energy infrastructure, and raw materials trade. Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan Also Vulnerable Azerbaijan’s trade with Russia reached approximately $4.8 billion in 2024, an increase of 10.1 percent. Russia ranks as Azerbaijan’s third-largest trading partner, after Italy and Turkey. Exports to Russia totaled $1.178 billion, accounting for 4.4 percent of Azerbaijan’s total exports. Notably, Russia is the largest buyer of Azerbaijan’s non-oil products, with a 34.6 percent share. Imports from Russia include foodstuffs, machinery, and metals, while Azerbaijan supplies gas, textiles, and agricultural goods. Kyrgyzstan is also at risk....