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Russia continues to try to reorient its natural gas exports from Europe to Asia and is planning a new pipeline route to China that would pass through Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan stands to benefit not only from transit fees, but could also import some Russia gas for regions in northeastern Kazakhstan that are desperately in need of more energy sources. The Russian plans are bad news for Turkmenistan as China is Turkmenistan’s main gas customer and Turkmen authorities were hoping to sell China even more gas. On November 15, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak mentioned the pipeline plan on the sidelines of a Chinese-Russian forum in Kazan, Russia. Novak said such a project is still only being discussed, but Russian media outlet Kommersant wrote on November 18 that there are already three options for the pipeline. All three possibilities pass though northeastern Kazakhstan, but Kazakhstan’s level of participation in the pipeline is different in each variation. One of the projects would require Kazakhstan to build a pipeline for gasification of the northeastern Pavlodar, Abai, and Karaganda provinces. A second proposal would include only the Abai and Zhetysu provinces. Russian gas giant Gazprom’s financial obligation also changes depending on the pipeline project selected. The most expensive option for Gazprom would cost more than $10 billion to construct and would not operate at full capacity until 2034. All versions foresee at least 35 billion cubic meters of Russian gas (bcm) shipped via the pipeline with Kazakhstan receiving some 10 bcm, which would greatly alleviate recent power shortages in northeastern Kazakhstan. Despite Novak saying the pipeline project was only being discussed, Kazakhstan and Russia appear well along in their planning. In early May, Kazakh Ambassador to Russia Duaren Abayev gave an interview to Russia’s TASS news agency and mentioned there was a “roadmap” for supplying 35 bcm of gas to China via Kazakhstan. Russia already exports gas to China via the “Sila Sibiri” (Power of Siberia) pipeline and expects that in 2024 the pipeline will for the first time reach its full capacity of 38 bcm. Construction of Sila Sibiri-2 with a planned capacity of some 50 bcm has been delayed due to China’s reluctance to loan Russia money for construction, differences over price, and China’s increasing purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Novak commented on Sila Sibiri-2, saying the pipeline project involving Kazakhstan was separate and the Russian government will continue to negotiate with China about construction of Sila Sibiri-2. Russia is seeking to replace its former main customer, the European Union. Prior to the Kremlin launching its full-scale war on Ukraine in February 2022, the EU was buying between 150-160 bcm of Russian gas annually. The EU sharply cut back on Russian gas imports in response to the invasion of Ukraine and in 2023 imported less than 43 bcm. Russia’s pivot to Asia for gas exports targets the Chinese market, but Gazprom is looking to take any possible Asian customers and has found some in Central Asia. Russia’s surge into the Asian...
As reported by TASS, the head of Gazprom, Alexey Miller, announced that from January to August 2024, the company doubled its gas supply to Central Asia. According to Miller, the rapid economic and social development of the republics has opened up significant new opportunities for Gazprom, with gas supplies to Uzbekistan now at the highest possible level. "For example, the gas supply applications we submit for Uzbekistan are currently being fulfilled through the Central Asia Center gas pipeline at the maximum technical capacity, equivalent to the levels used during the winter season. This is the same level of supply we provided to Uzbekistan last winter when they experienced unusually cold weather,” stated Miller. Citing the fact that Kyrgyzstan’s gasification rate has doubled and continues to grow, he explained, “A lot of work has been done to reconstruct the gas transportation system of Kyrgyzstan. New gas transportation facilities have been built. But what is also important is Gazprom Kyrgyzstan has implemented socially significant projects in Kyrgyzstan, as is customary at Gazprom.” The Times of Central Asia previously reported that in June, Gazprom signed agreements for gas supplies to Kyrgyzstan and with Kazakhstan on the transit of Russian gas in the direction of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan for the period 2025-2040. To ensure transit, a specially designated route based on the Central Asia–Center gas pipeline system will be expanded and implemented. In June 2023, Uzbekistan signed a two-year gas purchase agreement with Gazprom. Daily supplies amount to 9 million cubic meters, and annual supplies amount to almost 2.8 billion cubic meters. Supplies under this agreement began on October 7, 2023.
At the St Petersburg International Economic Forum 2024, Gazprom Export LLC and Gazprom Kyrgyzstan LLC signed a long-term contract for the supply of natural gas by Russia to Kyrgyzstan. Deputy General Director of Gazprom Kyrgyzstan Arzamat Aldayarov announced that Russian Gazprom is now set to double its supplies of 'blue fuel' to Kyrgyzstan from 2025-2040. He stated that the Bishkek Thermal Power Plant will switch completely to gas from 2026. In addition, the Kyrgyz authorities are planning to launch several more stations near Bishkek, which will also operate on Russian raw materials. Arzamat Aldayarov added that the development of a five-year roadmap for providing gas throughout Bishkek was imminent and referencing plans to build 250–300 kilometers of gas pipelines annually, connecting 13–15 thousand apartment buildings to supplies, said, “Currently, a lot of electricity is spent on heating, which puts pressure on city networks. We are looking for other sources of heat. We want to completely gasify residential areas and switch them to gas heating."
Long-term contracts for natural gas supplies to Kyrgyzstan were signed on June 7 at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2024, between Gazprom Export and Gazprom Kyrgyzstan. The latter is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Russian company, the exclusive importer of natural gas to Kyrgyzstan, and owner of the country’s gas transmission and distribution systems. In the presence of Alexey Miller, Chairman of the Gazprom Management Committee, and Taalaibek Ibraev, Minister of Energy of the Kyrgyz Republic, contracts running from 2025 -2040, were also concluded between Gazprom Kyrgyzstan and two of Kyrgyzstan’s largest consumers, Electric Stations and the Bishkekteploenergo municipal heating enterprise. Additional contracts, again effective from 2025- 2040, were signed by Gazprom and Kazakhstan’s national company QazaqGaz for the transmission of Russian natural gas across Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. During the forum, Alexey Miller and Roman Sklyar, First Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, also signed an action plan for the Central Asia – Center IV gas trunk pipeline for the increased transit of Russian natural gas to Uzbekistan. Russia has been supplying natural gas to Uzbekistan through Kazakhstan since October 2023.
