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Politics

Finland’s President Stubb Warns Russia’s Imperial Thinking Poses Risks for Central Asia

Russia’s imperial worldview may pose a greater long-term risk to Central Asia and the South Caucasus than to NATO member states, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in an interview with The Washington Post, highlighting concerns that continue to resonate across the post-Soviet space. Speaking with columnist David Ignatius, Stubb referenced Finland’s long and complex history with its eastern neighbor, noting that expansionist thinking remains deeply rooted in Russian political culture. “I think the DNA of Russia is still expansion and imperialism,” he said, arguing that President Vladimir Putin views the collapse of the Soviet Union as a historical injustice. While much of the Western debate centers on potential threats to NATO countries such as the Baltic states, Finland, or Poland, Stubb suggested that more vulnerable regions lie elsewhere. “I think the more worrying aspect for others is the Central Asian countries, the Southern Caucasus and others,” he said, pointing to what he described as a top-down political system driven by the ideology of Russkiy mir, or the “Russian world.” Stubb also spoke about his personal interactions with Russian officials, including Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, stressing that meaningful political dialogue remains unlikely while the war in Ukraine continues. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Russian television host Vladimir Solovyov sparked backlash after suggesting that Moscow could conduct “special military operations” in Central Asia and Armenia. The remarks were widely condemned by Uzbek scholars, journalists, and analysts as destabilizing and provocative. More recently, Russian ultranationalist Alexander Dugin, often described as an ideologue of the “Russian world”, publicly questioned the sovereignty of several former Soviet republics, including Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. A video of his comments circulated widely online, drawing sharp criticism across the region. Russia’s Foreign Ministry later sought to distance the Kremlin from such statements. Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that Solovyov’s remarks did not reflect official policy and reaffirmed that Moscow’s relationships with Central Asian countries are based on partnership and respect for sovereignty.

CSTO

CSTO Faces Uncertain Future as Putin Champions Russian Arms

The session of the CSTO Collective Security Council on November 27 in Bishkek underscored a key reality: the bloc, once envisioned as the “Eurasian response to NATO,” now consists of just five active members. Armenia pointedly boycotted the summit, a gesture that spoke volumes about the alliance’s internal fractures. While the presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan discussed “multipolarity” and “security,” Kyrgyz authorities erected a massive LED screen near the presidential residence, conveniently blocking the Ukrainian flag atop the Ukrainian embassy. Officials claimed the move was a “protocol requirement.” Moscow used the summit as a platform to outline its long-term strategic goals for the region, seizing the moment amid Armenia’s absence, growing debate over the CSTO’s purpose, and rising competition from other international security alliances in Eurasia. Yerevan’s decision to skip the gathering is a warning sign for fellow CSTO members. Armenia, having faced a real security crisis, evidently no longer views the alliance as a reliable guarantor. This casts doubt on the CSTO’s ability to adapt to a rapidly evolving regional security landscape, where flexibility, responsiveness, and tangible conflict support are increasingly in demand. In his report, CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov emphasized the bloc’s institutional development over the past three years, expanding collective forces, developing cyber capabilities, and establishing new international roadmaps. He also announced the creation of an Information and Analytical Department, signaling an effort to emulate more sophisticated military-political structures. Yet much of his address echoed the standard talking points delivered at previous summits. Tasmagambetov did address Armenia's absence, stating, “The CSTO respects Yerevan’s sovereign right.” Rather than defusing the issue, this acknowledgment only served to highlight the political rupture. Despite the tensions, CSTO leaders signed a broad set of documents, including a collective security strategy, an anti-drug initiative, and new military cooperation plans, reportedly one of the most comprehensive packages in recent years. Nonetheless, the summit’s spotlight belonged to Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko. The other leaders appeared relegated to the sidelines, affirming declarations to preserve a fragile collective consensus. Putin’s visit to Bishkek spanned two days, during which his pronouncements effectively became the summit’s agenda. He reiterated that the CSTO is a “guarantor of stability” and proposed equipping the bloc’s collective forces with Russian weapons “proven in combat conditions”, a clear reference to the war in Ukraine, though left deliberately vague. With Russia set to assume the CSTO chairmanship in 2026, the Kremlin appears to be steering the alliance toward deeper military-technical integration. Promoting its weapons to member states not only boosts Russia’s arms industry but also increases CSTO members’ reliance on Russian technologies and command systems. Some analysts suggest Moscow’s chairmanship priorities, from cybersecurity to aerospace defense, reflect an effort to position the CSTO as a counterweight to rival military-political blocs. President Lukashenko of Belarus added a European security dimension to the talks, citing NATO’s growing defense budgets and the military buildup in Poland, Germany, and the Baltic states as justification for reinforcing the CSTO. For Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, the...

CSTO

CSTO Summit in Bishkek: Armenia’s Boycott, Russia’s Agenda, and a New Secretary General

On November 27, Kyrgyzstan will host the annual summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Bishkek, bringing together foreign ministers, defense ministers, and security council secretaries from member states. While often portrayed in Russian media as an Eurasian analogue to NATO, the CSTO remains an organization heavily dependent on Russian military power. Should Moscow withdraw or reduce its support, the Organization’s relevance would likely collapse. A stark illustration of this fragility is Armenia, whose Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will boycott the summit entirely. Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov confirmed that Armenia will not attend the session of the Collective Security Council, the CSTO’s highest governing body, though it does not object to the adoption of bloc-wide documents. According to the CSTO press service, the Council is expected to adopt a declaration outlining member states’ joint positions on current security challenges. Also on the agenda is the formal appointment of the next Secretary General for the 2026-2029 term, and the unveiling of Russia’s priorities for its upcoming presidency in 2026. President Vladimir Putin’s speech on these priorities is expected to dominate the summit. Armenia’s withdrawal highlights the CSTO’s waning cohesion, maintained largely by members' reliance on Russian security assistance, a dynamic in place since the Treaty’s inception in Tashkent on May 15, 1992. The original signatories included Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, with Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Georgia joining in 1993. The treaty entered into force in 1994. Its central provision, Article 4, mandates collective defense: an attack on one member is considered an attack on all, obligating military and other forms of assistance in line with Article 51 of the UN Charter. In 1999, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan signed a protocol extending the treaty, establishing an automatic renewal every five years. The formal CSTO was created in 2002; its charter was registered with the UN the following year, and it has held observer status at the UN General Assembly since 2004. For Armenia, the CSTO’s relevance has waned dramatically since the bloc declined to intervene during the final phase of the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. Yerevan’s disenchantment, however, predates 2023 and stretches back to the 2021–2022 border clashes, when it also felt the organization had failed to provide meaningful support. Kazakhstan, by contrast, remains a key beneficiary: the rapid CSTO deployment in January 2022 played a central role in stabilizing the country during a period of acute domestic unrest. As the current Secretary General, Imangali Tasmagambetov - an influential figure from the “Old Kazakhstan” elite - completes his term, the position is scheduled to rotate to Taalatbek Masadykov of Kyrgyzstan. Ushakov confirmed that Tasmagambetov will deliver a final report on the Organization’s activities and security concerns before officially stepping down on January 1. Masadykov, currently Deputy Secretary General, is expected to assume the role seamlessly. While Masadykov brings diplomatic gravitas, the question remains whether he can restrain Moscow and Minsk from pushing CSTO allies toward confrontation with NATO. Tasmagambetov leaves behind a significant legacy and an...

Collective Security Treaty Organization

Controversies and Rejections: What Future Awaits the CSTO?

Armenia has officially refused to contribute financially to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a bloc tasked with ensuring the independence, territorial integrity, and sovereignty of its member states. Meanwhile, the organization’s Secretary General, Imangali Tasmagambetov, has come under scrutiny for remarks he made related to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Shifting Alliances and Regional Tensions Founded in 1992, the CSTO comprises Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, Tajikistan, and Armenia. Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan have withdrawn from the organization at various times. While the CSTO regularly conducts joint military exercises and cooperates on counter-terrorism and anti-narcotics efforts, the war in Ukraine has exposed internal divisions and challenged the bloc’s cohesion. Tasmagambetov Responds to Criticism In March, Secretary General Tasmagambetov raised eyebrows in an interview with a Russian outlet, warning that any deployment of EU troops to Ukraine could escalate regional tensions. He stated that the CSTO would be ready to provide assistance “within the framework of the organization’s charter and subject to approval by all member states.” The remarks sparked a backlash, particularly on social media in Kazakhstan, where some users accused Tasmagambetov, the former prime minister, of adopting a pro-Russian stance. Responding in late March, Tasmagambetov recorded a rare video message clarifying his position. “How can one calmly react to baseless claims that I would send my compatriots to war?” he asked. “There will always be those who distort my words. I have always remained loyal to my people; the interests of our country have always come first.” Tasmagambetov went on to urge viewers to think critically about information shared online. This controversy follows an earlier statement by Aibek Smadiarov, spokesperson for Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who said in October 2022 that the CSTO had no plans to involve itself in the Ukraine conflict. “The CSTO's jurisdiction is limited to the internationally recognized territories of its member states,” Smadiarov stated. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, is reviewing a report by a Ukrainian institution that said about 661 Kazakh citizens have fought for Russia since it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The I Want To Live center, which is run by the Ukrainian security services and assists with surrender requests from soldiers fighting for Russia, published a list of what it said were the Kazakh nationals. Of the 661, at least 78 have been killed, according to the center. Without providing details, it said it received the list from its own sources within the Russian military. Kazakh media quoted Igor Lepekha, Kazakhstan’s deputy interior minister of internal affairs, as saying the numbers have to be checked because it is unclear whether they are reliable. Kazakhstan bans mercenary activities in foreign conflicts and has opened a number of related investigations in the last few years. Last year, a court in Kazakhstan sentenced a Kazakh national to more than six years in jail for fighting with Russia’s Wagner Group in Ukraine. Armenia Pulls Back Adding to the bloc’s instability, Armenia recently announced that it would no longer finance the...

Military

One Military Alliance (CSTO) Monitors Woes of Another (NATO)

A “zombie” alliance, one Western analysis said. A “paper tiger,” said another. The Collective Security Treaty Organization, a regional group of post-Soviet states that includes Russia and several countries in Central Asia, has come in for some harsh criticism over the years because of perceptions that it is ineffective. Now, the CSTO, described in some circles as a smaller, Russia-dominated counterweight to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is closely monitoring a widening split in the NATO security alliance between the United States and Europe. It’s a stunning turnaround that raises questions on both sides about whether and to what extent countries would honor alliance obligations as U.S. President Donald Trump shakes up the global order. While he pushes Ukraine to make a peace deal with Russia, Europe is pledging more support for Ukraine, and deadly fighting continues after three years of war. Overnight, Russia attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure with drones and missiles, officials in Ukraine said Friday. The Collective Security Treaty Organization has appeared to struggle for cohesion and purpose at times. Its members are Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. While Belarus is loyal to Russia, Armenia has frozen its participation in the group because it felt abandoned by Russia during recent military losses to Azerbaijan. None of Russia’s partners in the CSTO have deployed troops to support its war in Ukraine. But a rise in Russia’s military and diplomatic stature, buoyed by perceptions that Trump favors rapprochement with President Vladimir Putin, could inject some momentum into the regional alliance. At the same time, the Central Asian states, at least, are likely to keep a pragmatic course, balancing international relationships and trying to avoid the perception of taking sides. In an interview with the Russian newspaper Izvestia published on Thursday, CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov was asked about reports that some European countries could send troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force. Tasmagambetov, a former Kazakh prime minister, downplayed the possibility, saying it would create “a dangerous situation on a regional scale” and that the CSTO was following the situation. “In addition, it is unlikely that the population of European countries, tired of the growing negative phenomena in the economy and social sphere, will approve of such a decision by their governments. After all, this will be an additional burden on the shoulders of society, even if these contingents are not involved in offensive operations, but will, for example, perform police or surveillance functions,” he said. “If such risks arise, the CSTO will be ready to offer various options for assistance within the framework provided for in the organization’s statutory documents and, of course, approved by all member states,” Tasmagambetov said. Russia has been blunt on the issue, saying it opposes any arrangement in which European peacekeepers are deployed in Ukraine.

Education Central Asia Uzbekistan NATO

Uzbek Military Receives NATO Training

Young recruits from Uzbekistan's armed forces have been gaining new skills with military professionals from NATO. Senior staff from NATO recently visited Uzbekistan's military training center, affiliated to the country's Ministry of Defense. Uzbek cadets were given classes on a number of subjects, including on how non-commissioned officers are trained in NATO member states. Uzbekistan's army ranked 65th out of 145 countries in the most recent PowerIndex rating. The country's defense sector conducts international exercises on a regular basis; last October Uzbek servicemen won an army competition in South Korea, while this year the training range in the city of Termez will host joint exercises with the Indian military. Uzbekistan cooperates with NATO under the Partnership for Peace program.