Population - The Times Of Central Asia

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Central Asia’s Population Surpasses 80 Million, With Rapid Growth Expected to Continue

The population of Central Asia has reached a historic milestone, exceeding 80 million people as of December 2024. Projections indicate this figure could surpass 100 million by 2050, highlighting the region’s rapid demographic growth and the challenges it brings for sustainable development. Rapid Population Growth According to the Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) macroeconomic forecast, Central Asia’s population has grown by nearly one and a half times over the past 24 years, increasing by approximately one million people annually. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan lead the region in demographic growth. Tajikistan’s population reached 10 million at the beginning of 2024, marking an 80% increase since 1991. Uzbekistan, the region’s most populous country, has maintained an annual growth rate of 1.1–1.2%, with its population now exceeding 36.7 million. The region as a whole has a youthful demographic profile, with an average age of 26.2 years. Diverging Population Estimates PopulationPyramid.net estimates Central Asia’s 2024 population at over 82 million. The discrepancy with other sources likely arises from differing methodologies and data collection techniques. Despite this, all sources agree that the population has surpassed the 80 million mark. Future Projections and Challenges Central Asia’s population is expected to exceed 100 million by 2050. However, rapid demographic growth presents serious challenges for the region. Key concerns include: • Sustainable Economic Development: Ensuring that economic growth keeps pace with population increases. • Job Creation: Addressing the needs of a growing labor force. • Quality of Life: Improving access to education, healthcare, and essential services. Managing these issues will be a top priority for state policies in the coming decades, as governments seek to balance population growth with sustainable development.

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Aging Kyrgyzstan: Economic Challenges and Empowering Seniors

According to the National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic, the country's population is aging quickly. Based on UN data, the agency predicts that the proportion of elderly people (65 and over) in Kyrgyzstan will significantly increase by 2030. According to the analysis, currently, 5.7% of the total population is elderly, and this figure may reach 8% by 2030. Speaking about the processes associated with an aging population, experts have highlighted social funds related to the payment of pensions, benefits, and other contributions to people who have finished their careers. Additionally, an aging population will produce fewer materials and public goods, and state tax revenues will decrease, which could lead to a decline in the country's standard of living. However, economist Kubanychbek Idinov sees this as a manageable problem. The 61-year-old believes that the increase in the average age is indicative of an improvement in Kyrgyzstan's standard of living. “The country's GDP is growing, and state budget spending on social projects is increasing. But we need to give pensioners more opportunities to work. This will be a great help to the revenue side of the budget. People who retire can work elsewhere. This allows them not to rely on their pensions alone, to have additional income,” Idinov told The Times of Central Asia. Most retirees in Kyrgyzstan continue to work. Idinov said they start small businesses or enterprises and pass on their experience to young people. According to official data, the country currently has about 150,000 working pensioners. “It is necessary at the state level to support trade unions' work in attracting retirees to work. It is possible to work at the level of local authorities. Then the issue of small pension growth will not be acute for people and the state,” Idinov said. On a related matter, Kyrgyz sociologists say that despite a slowdown, the country's population grew by almost half a million people (+7.8%) over the year. Kyrgyzstan remains the second-largest Central Asian country in terms of population growth after Tajikistan. “The increase in population, despite a slight decrease in the growth rate, is provided by the excess of births over deaths with a negative balance of external migration,” the report of the National Statistical Committee states. The large number of labor migrants returning home is also helping to combat the decrease in the number of able-bodied people. In 2007, experts from the UN Demography Department suggested evaluating countries as those with an old population if more than 7% of its citizens are over 65 years old.

Children Population health security Public health Healthcare

Children’s Blood Lead Levels in Kyrgyzstan to be Investigated

Kyrgyzstan has started preparing for its first comprehensive study on blood lead levels in children between the ages of 1 and 6. This project is being implemented by the National Institute of Public Health, the National Center for Health Promotion and Mass Communication, and with the support of the Ministry of Health and the Department of Disease Prevention. The study will focus on three key areas. First, an information and education campaign to raise awareness among parents and healthcare providers about the risks of lead poisoning will be launched. Second, the prevalence of lead in children will be assessed to determine the extent of the problem. Third, the study will address environmental analysis to identify sources of lead contamination. Exposure to lead is hazardous for children, as this toxic metal can cause serious health problems even at low levels of exposure. Lead affects brain development, leading to decreased cognitive function, developmental delays, behavioral issues, impaired learning, and reduced concentration ability. Children exposed to lead can also develop kidney and blood pressure problems. On September 26-27, in preparation for the project, specialists from the Health Promotion Cabinets attended a communications training where they studied theoretical and practical aspects of the impact of lead on the body, methods of prevention, and the importance of public awareness. The problem of lead contamination in Kyrgyzstan is still understudied despite many sources of contamination, including tailing ponds, old batteries, and cottage industries. The study is being conducted within the framework of the project “Reducing the Risk of Lead Poisoning in Children” and was made possible through the cooperation of Kyrgyzstan's Ministry of Health, the Pure Earth project, and the public association “ECOIS-Bishkek.” The results of this study will become the basis for the development of targeted programs aimed at minimizing the impact of lead on children's health.

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Uzbekistan Targets Further Reduction in Poverty Rate

Uzbekistan has set itself the ambitious goal of reducing the rate of poverty in the country from 11% to 7% in the next three years. To achieve this, the government plans to introduce a series of systematic measures to improve the economic situation of low-income segments of the population. The main emphasis will be placed on the development of the private sector and entrepreneurship, which should lead to the creation of new jobs. In addition to economic measures, attention will be paid to improving the social protection system, improving the quality and accessibility of education, and expanding access to healthcare. Since 2020, Uzbekistan has made significant progress in fighting poverty: the poverty rate has fallen in this time from 17% to 11%. This has been achieved through a comprehensive approach that includes economic and social reforms. In the Syrdarya region, for example, the poverty rate has fallen by 6 percentage points, and in the Andijan region by 5.5 percentage points. The authorities plan to allocate significant funds annually to fight poverty. This money will be distributed to regions and mahallas (local communities) with high levels of poverty, where individual support programs for each family will be introduced. Public control over the implementation of these programs will also be strengthened.

Population Society Migration

Over a Million Ethnic Kazakhs Have Returned to Kazakhstan Since 1991

Since 1991, over 1.1 million ethnic Kazakhs have returned to live in Kazakhstan, the government has reported. Since the start of this year 7,353 ethnic Kazakhs have received the status of kanda (Kazakh repatriates). Just under half (49.4%) arrived from China, 34.4% came from Uzbekistan, followed by Turkmenistan (6.3%), Mongolia (5.4%) and Russia (3.2%). These kandas have settled in different regions of Kazakhstan, but labor-deficient regions -- the Akmola, Abay, Kostanay, Pavlodar, East, and North Kazakhstan regions -- have been promoted as potential new homes. Kandas resettling in these regions are provided state support, namely a relocation subsidy of KZT 258,400 ($560) per family. The Ministry of Labor has announced that since 2023 the pilot relocation program has implemented a "one window" mechanism for granting kandas status through Kazakhstan's embassies. This initiative allows ethnic Kazakhs to address issues related to visiting Kazakhstan, securing employment, finding housing, and obtaining official status without physically entering the country. To date, 9,569 applications from ethnic Kazakhs have been processed under this new system.

Russia Security Economy Migration Population

Foreign Investment in Central Asia is Following Demographic Trends

The population growth in Central Asia, combined with worsening demographic situations across the rest of the post-Soviet space, means a gradual shift in power and investment toward the regional powers of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Thanks to their growing markets – unlike Belarus and Russia, where the population is slowly declining, and especially Ukraine – Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are starting large projects with the participation of foreign investors. In particular, Russia is showing increased interest in Central Asia, with the US and the EU also keen to engage financially. Recently, Kazakhstani political scientist Marat Shibutov noted on social media that politicians have realized the benefits of investing in countries with major population growth. He argued that power dynamics across the post-Soviet space are changing in line with that. Shibutov quoted an article that he co-authored with Yuri Solozobov in May 2019: “according to statistics, in 1991 there were 20 million people in Uzbekistan and 51 million in Ukraine. Now, there are officially 32.6 million in Uzbekistan (experts say about 34 million) and 42 million in Ukraine (the real figure is unknown). But soon, everything is set to change dramatically. In fact, in 2-5 years, Uzbekistan will equal or surpass Ukraine in population – this will be a turning point in the post-Soviet space. First and foremost, Uzbekistan's investment and trade position will improve, especially in the consumer goods segment. Considering the nuclear power plant project being implemented with the help of Russia and the Ustyurt oil and gas fields, Uzbekistan will become a more promising country for foreign investors than Ukraine, whose development will be entirely about defense spending and internal political issues.” Due to the war that started in 2022, Shibutov’s forecast has materialized even faster. According to UN estimates, Ukraine's population this year is barely 37 million. No one has accurate data since the last census in this country was carried out in 2001. As of 2023, the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine put the figure even lower than the UN, at 36 million. Thus, after Russia (with a population of over 140 million), Uzbekistan is likely the second most populous country of the former USSR. In Kazakhstan the population is growing even faster than in Uzbekistan. Russian and Kazakh businesses are implementing 135 projects worth $26.5 billion. Additionally, 67 joint projects worth $14 billion are being planned across key economic industries, including machine building, metallurgy, and chemicals. They are expected to create 11,000 jobs. According to Russian ambassador to Kazakhstan Alexei Borodavkin, there are more than 18,000 enterprises with Russian capital in Kazakhstan and about 4,000 joint ventures with Kazakh partners. Overall, Russia and Kazakhstan have investments totaling $33.5 billion across 143 projects. In November last year, a memorandum of cooperation was signed between the countries’ ministries of energy to build three thermal power plants (TPP) in Kazakhstan – Kokshetau TPP, Semey TPP, and Ust-Kamenogorsk TPP. The combined capacity of the new coal-fired facilities will be about 1 GW (Kokshetau TPP 240 MW, Semey TPP 360 MW,...