Regional Cooperation - The Times Of Central Asia

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Regional Ecological Summit

Regional Ecological Summit to Open in Astana Amid Pressure on Water, Trade, and Regional Cooperation

When the Regional Ecological Summit (RES 2026) opens in Astana this Wednesday, the official framing will center on Shared Vision for a Resilient Future, combining practical regional solutions with diplomatic ambitions that include a Joint Declaration and a 2026-2030 Program of Action. Behind that language sits a harder reality. Water and energy officials in Tashkent, Bishkek, and Astana are dealing with a region which is drying out faster than its infrastructure and politics are adapting. That gives the summit a sharper edge than earlier environmental gatherings. Two issues stand out: the management of winter water-sharing arrangements ahead of the irrigation season, and the way the shrinking Caspian could constrain the Middle Corridor. The Toktogul Equation: A Fragile "Winter-for-Summer" Swap The most immediate point of pressure is the Toktogul Reservoir in Kyrgyzstan. In late 2025, an agreement was reached under which Kyrgyzstan would limit winter hydropower generation, preserving water for downstream Kazakh and Uzbek farmers, in exchange for electricity supplies from its neighbors. The arrangement remains in place, but its durability will be tested as summer demand rises. One question hanging over the summit is whether Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will provide enough power support to help Kyrgyzstan conserve water without reopening old upstream-downstream tensions. For downstream states, that is not only a water issue but an agricultural and political one. The Caspian Emergency: Depth as a Trade Barrier For years, the shallowing of the Caspian was treated as a long-term problem. In 2026, it is becoming an operational one. According to recent reporting, Aktau port is operating at an average depth of 4.5 meters, far below the 6.5 to 7 meters needed for full operations. The summit will also highlight the Integrated Management of Seascapes project. The UNDP-linked initiative is intended to balance the need for dredging and port access with protection of the northern Caspian’s fragile ecosystem. That tension is no longer theoretical. It now touches trade, shipping capacity, and the future of the corridor itself. The Digital Transition One of the summit’s more concrete strands is the National Water Resources Information System. According to the Kazakh government, the system is to enter industrial operation by the end of 2026. The plan is to automate 103 irrigation canals in southern Kazakhstan using $1.15 billion in financing from the Islamic Development Bank. The broader regional test is whether neighboring states will share enough data to support a cross-border water monitoring system, giving officials a clearer view of how shared resources are being managed. The Green Energy Corridor Alongside the water agenda, the Green Energy Corridor remains one of the projects that clearly aligns Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan. The plan is to transmit green electricity to Europe via a subsea cable across the Caspian. CESI is finalizing the feasibility study, pointing to an export model that leans less on hydrocarbons and more on regional infrastructure. It also shows how environmental pressure and economic strategy are starting to overlap. For Central Asian governments, climate policy is no longer only about adaptation. It is...

Regional Ecological Summit

Kazakhstan’s Regional Ecological Summit 2026: What It Is and Why It Matters

Kazakhstan’s Regional Ecological Summit 2026 in Astana on April 22-24 is aiming to turn Central Asia’s environmental strain into a regional political agenda. Organized in partnership with the United Nations, the summit is built around the theme, “Shared Vision for a Resilient Future.” Its stated purpose is to bring together governments, international organizations, lenders, businesses, researchers, and civil society to push for joint and practical responses to climate and ecological pressures across the region. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev first proposed hosting a regional climate summit in Kazakhstan under UN auspices during his 2023 speech at the 78th session of the UN General Assembly. By 2026, that idea had broadened into a wider environmental summit covering climate transition, adaptation, food security, natural resource management, air pollution, waste, finance, and environmental skills. The official key thematic directions show that this is no longer a narrowly framed climate conference. It is being presented as a broader Central Asian platform for ecological cooperation. In Central Asia, ecological stress now shapes core state concerns, from farming and energy to public health and cross-border cooperation. That gives the Astana summit a broader role than a standard environment conference. That shift reflects real regional pressures. Central Asia faces chronic water stress, glacier retreat, desertification, air pollution, and growing strain on ecosystems. The summit’s organizers say the meeting is meant to produce joint solutions rather than another round of abstract pledges. The UN in Kazakhstan says the summit is expected to advance shared regional responses and identify green financing needs, while a second UN page states that one planned outcome is a Joint Declaration by the heads of state of Central Asia, alongside a 2026-2030 Programme of Action developed with the United Nations. Tokayev’s own language explains the summit’s pitch. On August 5, 2025, speaking at the Third United Nations Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries in Awaza, Turkmenistan, he said, “Many developing countries without access to the sea are facing water scarcity, glacier melt, desertification, and other extreme weather events. Addressing these challenges requires coordinated regional efforts and strong international support. At the same time, I believe that measures to combat climate change must remain balanced and inclusive, and respond to the legitimate development needs of countries. To strengthen our joint efforts in addressing climate change, I invite you to the Regional Ecological Summit, which will be held in Astana in partnership with the United Nations.” The wording shows how Kazakhstan wants to frame the event. Central Asia’s environmental problems cross borders, but the response, in Tokayev’s view, must also accommodate growth, infrastructure, and development. That is why the summit is being presented not just as a climate gathering, but as a forum linking ecological policy, investment, technology, and state planning. The EXPO component is part of that design. Government and investment-promotion pages say the parallel exhibition will focus on green technologies, ESG tools, and practical climate solutions, linking diplomacy to project finance and implementation. The summit’s speaker list underlines its international reach. The official RES 2026 page includes...

Access to Clean Water

Water Stress: Will the Summer of 2026 Become a Turning Point for Central Asia?

The summer of 2026 is projected to be a critical and potentially decisive period for Central Asia in the context of water stress. The region is entering the growing season with significantly lower water reserves in its main river basins, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, compared to previous years. The combined impact of climate change and rising consumption is expected to exacerbate irrigation shortages, threatening crop yields and food security. A Region Under Pressure: Water as a Strategic Factor For Kazakhstan, water is taking on an increasing strategic importance in 2026. The southern regions, Kyzylorda, Turkestan, and Zhambyl, have already entered a phase of persistent low water availability. Estimates suggest that the irrigation deficit could reach up to 1 billion cubic meters. The situation in the Syr Darya basin remains critical. Inflows are expected to fall 3.2 billion cubic meters below normal, and by the start of the growing season, total water volume may reach only 1-2 billion cubic meters, far below demand. The Shardara Reservoir, a key regional storage facility, is currently at roughly half of its design capacity. Uzbekistan faces an even more vulnerable position due to its high population density and large agricultural sector. The flow of the Amu Darya is projected to fall to 65% of its historical norm, putting food stability at risk. Tashkent is accelerating investments in canal reconstruction, as water losses during transport reach up to 40%. Against this backdrop, tensions between upstream and downstream countries could become more pronounced. Kyrgyzstan, acting as the region’s “water tower,” faces a difficult trade-off between energy security and its obligations to downstream neighbors. Low accumulation levels in the Toktogul Reservoir have constrained hydropower generation, leading to winter energy shortages and reduced summer water releases, precisely when Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan require them for irrigation. This cyclical dependency turns each growing season into a complex round of “water-for-electricity” negotiations, with diminishing room for maneuver. Tajikistan faces a similar situation in the Amu Darya basin. The Nurek Hydropower Plant is operating under strict conservation principles as reservoir levels remain several meters below previous norms. For Dushanbe, the priority remains fulfilling the Rogun project, which, under low-water conditions, raises justified concerns among downstream states. These tensions are compounded by the accelerated melting of Pamir glaciers, which currently increases water flows but poses a long-term risk of severe depletion. Turkmenistan is also expected to experience acute water stress in 2026. In the Ahal and Mary regions, pasture degradation and limited irrigation are reducing livestock numbers and grain yields. The government is investing in dredging the Karakum Canal and constructing small desalination plants, but these measures only partially offset declining Amu Darya flows. An additional destabilizing factor is Afghanistan’s Qosh-Tepa Canal project. By summer 2026, its impact on the Amu Darya basin is expected to become physically noticeable. Estimates state that unregulated water withdrawals could reduce downstream flows by 15-25%. Afghanistan’s absence from regional water-sharing agreements creates a legal vacuum that existing mechanisms cannot address. As a result, Central Asia is...

Strategic Partnership

The Astana-Tashkent Tandem: A Developing Partnership Based on Mutual Interest

On April 11, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev paid a working visit to Uzbekistan, where he was hosted in Bukhara by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The historic city provided the setting for discussions that increasingly reflect a broader regional agenda. A second informal meeting in just over a year suggests this format may be gaining weight in relations between Central Asia’s two largest economies. “The informal format is of strategic importance, since such meetings make it possible to discuss sensitive issues without protocol constraints, build personal trust between leaders, which plays a key role in Central Asia, and align positions ahead of official negotiations,” said Uzbek political analyst Ravshan Nazarov. He added that such meetings reflect a growing intra-regional focus, reduced dependence on external actors, and the strengthening of the “Tashkent-Astana” tandem. During the talks, Tokayev emphasized the importance of the visit “given the current unstable geopolitical situation.” The two sides reviewed bilateral cooperation across multiple sectors. Trade turnover reached $5 billion last year, with both countries aiming to double this figure to $10 billion in the near term. Joint projects are already underway in automotive manufacturing, infrastructure, logistics, electrical engineering, and construction materials. The discussion also extended to other sectors, including energy and industrial cooperation. Both Presidents stressed the need to modernize border infrastructure, eliminate bottlenecks, and develop efficient transport corridors to external markets. They also discussed accelerating major regional projects, including the construction of the Kambarata hydropower plant and advancing “green” energy exports. Tokayev also voiced his support for Uzbekistan’s “Clean Air” initiative, highlighting environmental challenges in Almaty. “I share your concern regarding the environmental condition of Tashkent. We have a very difficult situation in Almaty. Unfortunately, Almaty has entered the list of the most polluted major cities in the world, and urgent measures must be taken. Therefore, we could propose the joint implementation of the ‘Clean Air’ initiative under presidential patronage,” Tokayev said. The reference to Almaty also recalled the setting of the previous informal meeting on March 29, 2025. During that visit, Mirziyoyev toured the Medeu high-mountain sports complex and visited the National Museum of Arts, where an exhibition featuring works by Abilkhan Kasteev and Ural Tansykbayev was organized. That visit drew attention to the city’s preparedness for high-level events. Tokayev subsequently instructed then-Mayor of Almaty, Yerbolat Dossayev, to improve conditions in the city and report regularly on progress. In May 2025, Dossayev was dismissed as mayor and reassigned to the Presidential Administration. He was later also relieved of that post. In contrast, the Bukhara program was more extensive. Mirziyoyev presented industrial and technological projects, including a cotton-textile cluster, an artificial intelligence hackathon, and several cultural landmarks, including the mausoleum of Bahauddin Naqshbandi, founder of the Naqshbandi Sufi order. The discussions themselves also appeared more substantive, covering areas such as rare earth metals, transport, energy, and information technology. “When discussions include not only trade but also rare earths, transport, energy, and IT, it indicates a shift toward strategic thinking. The focus is no longer just on trade turnover,...

Trade

Afghanistan Aims to Increase Trade with Central Asia to $10 Billion

Afghanistan aims to increase trade with Central Asian countries to $10 billion over the next three to four years, Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi said at a meeting in Kabul. According to Muttaqi, Afghanistan’s trade turnover with countries in the region reached approximately $2.7 billion in 2025, marking a significant increase compared to previous years. The statement was made during a consultative dialogue involving representatives from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, focused on regional cooperation, trade, and the development of transit routes. Muttaqi said Afghanistan intends to leverage its geoeconomic position to connect Central Asia with markets in South and West Asia. Among key projects, he highlighted the TAPI gas pipeline, which is currently under construction. Afghan authorities are seeking to expand economic ties despite ongoing international sanctions affecting the banking sector, which continue to constrain investment inflows. At the same time, Russia remains the only country to have officially recognized the Taliban government that came to power in 2021. Several countries, including China, India, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates, maintain a diplomatic presence in Kabul. Landlocked Central Asian countries view southern routes through Afghanistan as an alternative to northern corridors via Russia, which have been complicated by sanctions. Afghanistan shares a border of more than 2,300 km with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, and continues to face security challenges, including threats from extremist groups, drug trafficking, and irregular migration. However, Muttaqi said the situation along the borders remains generally stable. Earlier reports indicated that Kazakhstan is exploring the possibility of investing in rare earth metal mining in Afghanistan. The national company Tau-Ken Samruk is conducting laboratory analysis of samples collected in Afghanistan and Rwanda.

India

India–Central Asia: Connectivity, Security, and Sustainable Partnerships in a Multipolar World

A widening conflict in West Asia is forcing India and Central Asia to reassess trade routes, diplomacy, and regional security, with key projects such as Iran’s Chabahar port now facing growing uncertainty. These risks framed discussions in New Delhi on March 25–26, where experts gathered under the banner of “India–Central Asia: Connectivity, Security, and Sustainable Partnerships in a Multipolar World,” with The Times of Central Asia in attendance. The conference unfolded against the backdrop of two active Eurasian wars—the Russo-Ukrainian and the Israel/U.S.-Iran conflict. Central Asian and Indian participants agreed that the West Asian crisis is widening, putting not only ports and logistics routes but also economies across the globe under serious threat. India's Chabahar link to Afghanistan and Central Asia is now a high-risk, uncertain investment, weakening overall continental strategic thinking across Eurasia, including efforts to consolidate new trans-Caspian trade corridors. If the conflict cripples or destroys Chabahar, years of progress, hard-won partnerships, and millions in strategic investment would be erased. On the sidelines, some participants suggested that India could help cool what's becoming a dangerously global conflict. Unbeknownst to them, India had already held an all-party meeting on March 25 on the West Asia crisis. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar's message: India will not mediate. The revelation surprised some participants—others, not at all. In any event, Central Asian states, in principle, have backed any diplomatic push for peace. With West Asia in turmoil and platitudes in abundance, conference participants emphasized the need to rethink geopolitics, trade, security, and cultural ties beyond stale frameworks at a time of conflict. Four themes defined the Central and South Asian moment: the dangers of bloc politics, even as regional organizations continue to evolve and expand their influence, the ascendancy of national interests over external pressure, and the emergence of a firm refusal to pick sides in the midst of frictions between competing global pressures. Dr. Raj Kumar Sharma, a member of the India Central Asia Foundation, stated: “The conference provided an important platform to move beyond theoretical discussion and toward practical engagement. With Central Asia’s ambassadors to India present, we focused on exploring concrete mechanisms to promote peace through sustained diplomatic efforts. Despite the proximity of the conflict in West Asia to both Central Asia and India, participants expressed confidence that dialogue and restraint – buttressed by trade and investment – will ultimately guide outcomes, with particular concern for civilians and those enduring hardship. Notably, the crisis did not overshadow the conference’s primary agenda or its scholarly contributions. Overall, the gathering can be seen as a constructive step in reinforcing diplomatic initiatives dedicated to peace and stability in a conflict-affected region.” The conference witnessed the release of three significant publications on India–Central Asia relations: India – Kazakhstan Partnership in a Changing Geopolitical Order (eds. Ramakant Dwivedi, Lalit Aggarwal, Kuralay Baizakova), Manas: Kirgiz Vir Gatha Kavya by Ramakant Dwivedi & Hemchandra Pandey and India and Central, East and Southeast Asia: Enhancing the Partnership (eds. Ramakant Dwivedi & Lalit Aggarwal). [caption id="attachment_46364" align="aligncenter" width="1379"]...