Russia's War in Ukraine - The Times Of Central Asia

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Energy Security

Kazakhstan Weighs Proposal to Process Russian Crude

Kazakhstan is considering a plan to process Russian crude at its refineries, a step Astana says could support plant utilization and domestic fuel supplies but could also raise sanctions-compliance and diplomatic questions, depending on its scale and structure. The Energy Ministry said on July 30 that discussions cover refining oil “of Russian origin,” selling part of the output in Kazakhstan, and exporting part back to Russia. It did not identify the refineries, volumes, counterparties, or commercial terms. The talks come as parts of Russia face fuel shortages following repeated Ukrainian strikes on refineries. Moscow has extended export restrictions on gasoline, diesel, marine fuel, and gas oils until January 31, 2027, although producers regain exemptions for several products from September 1. The two countries already exchange crude, feedstock, and refined products. Russia discussed buying about 50,000 metric tons of Kazakh gasoline in June. Astana said at the time that it had received no formal request and would protect domestic supply. Trade has since moved beyond discussion. Kazakhstan's Condensate refinery is processing Russian naphtha and exported gasoline to Russia for the first time in July. Kazakhstan has a practical industrial case for considering the proposal. Although the ministry has not identified any refinery involved in the talks, the Pavlodar refinery was designed to process West Siberian crude and remains connected to Russian supply routes. The two countries share extensive energy transport systems and coordinate annual fuel balances. The ministry said steady feedstock would support refinery utilization and domestic supply. The wider regional focus on fuel security was evident on July 31, when Tajik President Emomali Rahmon proposed building large oil refineries in Central Asia, prioritizing domestic demand for essential petroleum products. Decades of infrastructure integration also constrain Kazakhstan’s room for maneuver. More than 80% of its oil exports cross Russian territory through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Much of Kazakhstan’s rail trade is tied to Russian networks. These links narrow Kazakhstan’s near-term options and raise the economic cost of abrupt changes to established energy arrangements. The scale and destination of the resulting fuel would determine much of the political meaning. Small volumes sold mainly in Kazakhstan could resemble established regional commerce. A larger export-oriented program supplying Russia during a period of refinery disruption would draw more scrutiny, particularly if it materially eased pressure on Russia’s fuel system. The sensitivity has been heightened by renewed disruption around the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. On July 30, attacks hit NISSOS SIFNOS and MARATHI near the CPC terminal at Novorossiysk. Oil loading stopped only three days after Kazakhstan resumed exports following a week-long disruption. The route is Kazakhstan’s principal oil export artery. The earlier stoppage cut national oil and gas condensate output to about one million barrels per day by July 26, less than half the June average. Russia explicitly blamed Ukraine. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called the July 30 strikes “actions of a terrorist nature” and said they harmed Kazakh and U.S. economic interests. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry confirmed the incidents but did not name an attacker....

e-Commerce

Wildberries Kazakhstan Sellers Count Losses After Ukraine Strikes

Over the past month, Ukrainian forces have carried out a series of strikes on the facilities of Russia's largest online marketplace, Wildberries. As with previous attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure, including that of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), the consequences are again being felt by citizens and businesses in neighboring countries, highlighting the extent to which the war's economic effects now extend far beyond the battlefield. Since July 18, Ukrainian strikes have hit Wildberries logistics facilities in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Crimea, as well as in Tver and Tambov Oblasts. According to the Russian business daily Kommersant, the attacks damaged logistics facilities representing more than 10% of Wildberries’ total warehouse floor space, with a combined area exceeding 550,000 square meters. Alongside Wildberries, another major Russian marketplace, Ozon, also operates in Kazakhstan. Its logistics network has so far not been affected by similar attacks. Together, the two companies account for more than 85% of Kazakhstan’s cross-border online marketplace segment, according to data presented in June by Mazhilis deputy Aituar Koshmambetov during parliamentary discussions on the development of e-commerce. E-commerce has become one of Kazakhstan’s fastest-growing sectors, expanding roughly fivefold since 2020. The market was valued at $6.7 billion in 2025, and the government aims to increase that figure to $19.5 billion by 2029. Against that backdrop, Kazakh sellers were always likely to be affected sooner or later. On Tuesday, Kazakhstan’s National Chamber of Entrepreneurs, Atameken, said it had begun collecting information on Kazakh businesses affected by the attacks on Wildberries facilities in Russia. According to preliminary estimates by the Ecommerce-KZ Association, more than 100 member companies suffered losses as a result of fires at the marketplace’s logistics centers. Their combined losses exceed $2.1 million. Following an request from Atameken to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration, the ministry has approached Russian authorities and the Wildberries for further information. For neighboring Kyrgyzstan, the situation surrounding Wildberries has proved even more painful. Compensation for lost goods is now being discussed at the level of the country’s economy minister, who is negotiating with the marketplace’s management. Much of Kyrgyzstan’s garment industry and trading sector now depend on Wildberries. According to the country’s association of garment manufacturers, individual producers have suffered losses ranging from 1 million to 100 million Kyrgyz soms, or approximately $11,400 to $1.14 million. While businesses in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan are counting their losses, Wildberries itself appears to be reconsidering its logistics strategy. According to a report in Kommersant, the company has begun searching for vacant warehouse space in Kazakhstan and is prepared to lease virtually all of the country’s available modern warehouse capacity. According to NF Group, only 5.8% of Kazakhstan's modern warehouse space was vacant at the end of 2025. Stanislav Akhmedzyanov, managing partner at IBC Global, said the Kazakh market has no single warehouse facility of 100,000 square meters, which is reportedly the amount of space Wildberries requires. As of the end of June 2026, only 130,000 square meters of warehouse space remained available across the country, scattered...

Caspian Sea

As Two Wars Reach the Caspian, Central Asia’s Middle Corridor Holds

On July 25, two wars met in waters that Central Asian governments had tried to keep apart. Ukraine reported successful long-range strikes in the Caspian Sea. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the targets included vessels involved in carrying military cargo from Iran and a warship. Tehran said an Iranian commercial vessel had been struck, killing one sailor and injuring another, and accused Kyiv of trying to widen the war. It remains unclear whether the vessel identified by Iran was among the targets described by Zelenskyy. Diplomacy produced a limited off-ramp. On July 28, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha told his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araqchi, that the strike on the Iranian ship was unintended. Both governments said they wanted to avoid further escalation. The call reduced the immediate risk of retaliation, but it did not remove the new danger. The Caspian is now one of the places where Russia’s war against Ukraine and the war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States intersect. Central Asia is exposed through the infrastructure and trade routes linking them. A “Sea of Peace” Under Pressure Turkmenistan responded to the incident with unusually direct language. Its Foreign Ministry called attacks on vessels in the Caspian “inadmissible” and described the waterway as a “sea of peace, harmony and good-neighborliness.” Ashgabat did not name Ukraine or endorse Iran’s account. Its restraint was characteristic, but the public criticism was unusual. Turkmenistan’s permanent neutrality normally produces guarded statements during external conflicts. The intervention showed that Ashgabat viewed the attack as a challenge to the regional order. Turkmenistan faces Iran across a 1,148-kilometer land border and the southern Caspian. Turkmenbashi port is also central to its plans for a larger role in Eurasian trade. The principle is set out in the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, signed in Aktau in 2018. Its text calls for the peaceful use of the sea, prohibits the use or threat of force, and bars armed forces belonging to non-Caspian states. The convention has not entered into force because Iran has not ratified it. Its provisions were designed to govern relations among the five littoral states. They do not address a long-range strike carried out by a non-littoral state. But modern drones can cross distances that once provided strategic shelter. A landlocked sea can no longer be assumed to sit beyond the reach of surrounding wars. The Iran-Russia Link Ukraine has clear military reasons to look toward the Caspian. Iran has supplied Russia with drone technology used against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The sea also provides a direct commercial route between Iranian ports and Russia’s Volga region. Kyiv now treats vessels on that route carrying military cargo as part of Russia’s military logistics. Iran described the vessel struck on July 25 as civilian. The dispute over the ship’s cargo is central because commercial and military supply chains can overlap. A vessel may be civilian by flag and registration while carrying goods that Ukraine considers part of Russia’s war effort. That uncertainty reaches beyond...

Caspian Pipeline Consortium

Kazakhstan Resumes CPC Oil Exports After Output More Than Halves

Kazakhstan resumed oil exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium on July 27 after the consortium restarted accepting crude and loading tankers at its Black Sea terminal near Novorossiysk. The Energy Ministry said the SEAMAJESTY and MILOS tankers were loading crude supplied by Tengizchevroil at two of the terminal’s single-point moorings. CPC said its pipeline had been back online since 12:28 p.m. Moscow time. Loading operations resumed after a week-long suspension. The ministry said terminal operations would continue according to assessments of the security situation and compliance with safety requirements. It remains in contact with CPC management, oil producers, and other companies involved in the shipments. The restart followed the sharpest production decline recorded during the disruption. Kazakhstan’s oil and gas condensate output fell to about one million barrels per day on July 26, according to an industry source. That was less than half the June average of 2.16 million barrels per day. Production had already fallen by about 21% as of July 22, to 1.63 million barrels per day. Tengiz, Kazakhstan’s largest oilfield, bore the heaviest initial reduction. Its output dropped by 56%, from a July average of 925,000 barrels per day to about 406,000 barrels per day. By July 26, the cuts had spread across Kazakhstan’s three largest oil projects. Daily production at Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak fell by between 70% and 90% compared with June levels, according to an industry source. The Energy Ministry and the projects’ operators did not comment on the field-level figures. Producers reduced output after CPC restricted intake from Kazakhstan and suspended tanker loadings. Storage tanks at the terminal had reached capacity, leaving the pipeline system with little room to receive additional crude. The Energy Ministry described the reductions as a technical measure intended to keep production operations stable. The halt followed a series of drone attacks on tankers near the CPC terminal. Three vessels were struck on July 17 and 19, including two loading Kazakh oil. Loadings briefly resumed before another tanker, NELSA, was hit at a single-point mooring on July 20. No casualties or oil spills were reported. Kazakhstan condemned the attacks and said an agreed information-sharing mechanism intended to protect civilian vessels carrying CPC crude had been disregarded. The government described the incidents as a threat to international energy security and demanded an immediate halt. The 1,510-kilometer CPC pipeline carries crude from western Kazakhstan through Russia to the Black Sea. It handles more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, including most production from Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak. The shutdown added to a difficult year for the sector. Kazakhstan produced 45.7 million tonnes of oil in the first half of 2026, down 8.4% year-on-year. The ministry expects full-year production of 98 million tonnes after lowering its previous target because of earlier Tengiz outages and CPC disruptions. It was not immediately clear how quickly output would return to earlier levels. The reopening restores Kazakhstan’s main export outlet, but the speed and scale of the cuts again exposed its dependence on infrastructure vulnerable to...

Russia's War in Ukraine

Why Tokayev Urged Putin to Freeze the War in Ukraine

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has delivered his most direct public appeal to Vladimir Putin for an end to Russia's war in Ukraine. Speaking alongside the Russian president during the 22nd Kazakhstan-Russia Interregional Cooperation Forum in Omsk on July 25, Tokayev called for freezing the war and returning to what he described as the "Istanbul Formula 2.0." For many observers, the statement marked a significant departure from the cautious language traditionally used by leaders across the post-Soviet region. Although Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly criticized the war and reaffirmed support for Ukraine's territorial integrity, Tokayev's intervention was notable because he advanced a concrete proposal directly to Putin on Russian territory. Tokayev's remarks were consistent with Kazakhstan's long-standing foreign policy, which has emphasized negotiated settlements and diplomatic conflict resolution. While Russia remains one of Kazakhstan's largest trading partners and a crucial infrastructure partner, Astana has not recognized Moscow's annexation of Ukrainian territory. The war has also become a direct economic concern for Kazakhstan. More than 80% of the country's crude exports move through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), whose Black Sea export route has recently been affected by attacks on tankers and related security incidents. Those disruptions have highlighted Kazakhstan's continued dependence on the CPC corridor and the risks posed by an expanding conflict zone. Tokayev's Proposal According to the Kremlin transcript, Tokayev told Putin that he had been receiving “many signals” from Europe and the United States regarding the current state of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and had already discussed them with the Russian president by telephone. Tokayev also stressed that he regarded the conflict as an interstate war rather than a civil war. He added that Kazakhstan had always treated the Ukrainian people, their culture and their language with respect. He further said Putin had demonstrated “maximum diplomatic flexibility” during his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Anchorage, Alaska. “This is simply my humble opinion, since people keep asking me: perhaps the conflict should already be frozen, and we should return to the ‘Istanbul Formula 2.0,’ because significant results had been achieved there. Then, naturally, under guarantees from the major powers, including Russia, it would be possible to move toward long-awaited peace,” Tokayev said. Tokayev also made clear that he did not intend to serve as an official mediator in any future negotiations. Tokayev did not define the formula in detail. Russia and Ukraine held talks in Istanbul in 2022 and resumed direct negotiations there in 2025, but neither round produced a settlement. It remains unclear whether he envisaged a ceasefire along the current front line, how occupied territory would be treated, or what guarantees any major powers would provide. Planned or Spontaneous? Major strategic decisions in the post-Soviet space have traditionally been shaped behind closed doors. That is one reason why Tokayev's remarks, delivered while sitting beside Putin, immediately attracted the attention of political analysts. Several experts argue that such a proposal was unlikely to have been made spontaneously. Tokayev's call to freeze the fighting and resume negotiations...

Russia's War in Ukraine

Tokayev Calls for Ukraine War Freeze as Black Sea and Caspian Risks Grow

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has called for Russia and Ukraine to freeze the war and return to negotiations, delivering one of his clearest public appeals for an end to the conflict while seated beside Russian President Vladimir Putin. "Perhaps this conflict should already be frozen and we should return to the Istanbul Formula 2.0, since significant results were achieved there," Tokayev said during talks in Omsk on July 25. He said major powers, including Russia, should provide security guarantees before the sides moved towards a lasting peace. Russia and Ukraine held talks in Istanbul soon after Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022 and resumed direct negotiations there in 2025, though neither round produced a settlement. Moscow and Kyiv dispute how close the 2022 talks came to an agreement and why they collapsed. Tokayev described the war as an "interstate conflict," and said that Kazakhstan respects the Ukrainian people, their culture and language. He also expressed concern over the deaths of young Russians and Ukrainians. Tokayev declined any formal role for Astana, but stated that he had received proposals and appeals concerning mediation, including from Europe and the United States. He said Kazakhstan was not an outsider, but that Russia was capable of resolving the issue without an intermediary. He also reaffirmed Kazakhstan's strategic partnership and allied relationship with Russia, praising what he called Putin's diplomatic flexibility during the Russian president's August 2025 meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Anchorage. The Kremlin rejected the idea of a freeze. Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said it was impossible under Kyiv's current position. He repeated Moscow's claim that fighting could stop if Ukraine made what Russia considers the necessary decisions. Russia's stated terms include Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, including areas Moscow does not control. Putin also wants Kyiv to renounce its aim of joining NATO. Ukraine has rejected those conditions. Tokayev's position has developed publicly, but has remained centered on negotiations. In September 2024, he said Russia was "militarily invincible" and argued that continued escalation could bring about a wider disaster. He called for hostilities to stop before negotiations moved to territorial issues. Kazakhstan has also kept its distance from several central Kremlin claims. In June 2022, Tokayev refused to recognize the Russian-backed entities in Donetsk and Luhansk, describing them as "quasi-state territories." Astana has continued to cite the UN Charter, state sovereignty, and territorial integrity. The latest appeal came as the war reached shipping routes close to Kazakhstan and disrupted the country's main oil export corridor. On July 25, Iran accused Ukraine of attacking an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea. Tehran said an explosion killed one sailor and injured another, summoning Ukraine's chargé d'affaires and describing the strike as hostile and criminal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his forces had achieved "very strong results" with long-range strikes in the Caspian, and that targets included a Russian warship and vessels used for military cargo shipments involving Iran. Zelensky did not identify the vessels, and Iran did not name...