Water crisis - The Times Of Central Asia

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Water Scarcity

Central Asia and the Global Water Crisis: A Test of Governance and Cooperation

Water scarcity is rapidly transforming from a regional environmental concern into one of the defining global security challenges of the 21st century. UN-linked assessments estimate that around four billion people experience severe water scarcity for at least one month each year, and nearly three-quarters of the global population lives in countries facing water insecurity. Against this backdrop, Central Asia is not an exception but rather a concentrated example of global dynamics: climate pressure, population growth, and inefficient resource management. Regional initiatives, including proposals put forward by Kazakhstan, therefore have the potential to contribute not only to stability in Central Asia but to the development of a more coherent global water governance architecture. The Water Crisis as a Global Reality Water is increasingly regarded as a strategic resource on par with energy and food. Climate change is intensifying droughts, floods, and the degradation of aquatic ecosystems across all regions, from Africa and the Middle East to South Asia, Europe, and North America. Recent mapping and analysis by investigative groups and international media indicate that half of the world’s 100 largest cities experience high levels of water stress, with dozens classified as facing extremely high levels. Major urban centers, including Beijing, New York, Los Angeles, Rio de Janeiro, and Delhi, are among those under acute pressure, while cities such as London, Bangkok, and Jakarta are also categorized as highly stressed. In this context, Central Asia is not an outlier. It is confronting today what may soon become the global norm. Central Asia: Where Global Trends Converge A defining feature of the current environmental situation is that factors beyond natural ones drive the water crisis. Experts increasingly stress that shortages are often less about absolute physical scarcity and more about outdated management systems, infrastructure losses, and inefficient consumption patterns. In this respect, Central Asia can be seen as a testing ground for global water challenges, where multiple stress factors converge. The region, with mountain peaks exceeding 7,000 meters, contains some of the largest ice reserves outside the polar regions. The Pamir and Hindu Kush ranges, together with the Tibetan Plateau, the Himalayas, and the Tien Shan, form part of what is sometimes referred to as the “Third Pole,” the largest concentration of ice after the Arctic and Antarctic. [caption id="attachment_13410" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] The White Horse Pass, Tajikistan; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] However, the pace of change is alarming. By 2030-2040, water scarcity in Central Asia risks becoming chronic. Glaciers in the Western Tien Shan, for example, have reportedly shrunk by roughly 27% over the past two decades and continue to retreat, posing a direct threat to the flow of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers. These rivers increasingly fail to reach the Aral Sea in sufficient volume, while the exposed seabed has become a major source of salt and dust storms. [caption id="attachment_21928" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Moynaq, Karakalpakstan; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Infrastructure inefficiencies compound the problem. Estimates suggest that in some systems, 40-50% of water can be lost in deteriorating...

Water crisis

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Launch Study to Revise Irrigation Regimes in Syr Darya River Basin

With grant funding from the French Development Agency (AFD), Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have launched a joint initiative to revise irrigation regimes in the Syr Darya River basin. The project, coordinated by the Executive Committee of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, aims to optimize agricultural water use and improve environmental outcomes, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation. In Kazakhstan, the study covers 550,000 hectares of irrigated farmland in the Turkestan Region and 254,000 hectares in the Kyzylorda Region. Ground-level measurements are underway alongside satellite-based remote sensing to collect precise and comprehensive data. The findings will inform updated irrigation schedules and help increase crop yields, reduce soil salinization and land degradation, and enhance water-use efficiency across the Syr Darya River basin. The project involves both the Kazakh Research Institute of Water Management and Uzbekistan’s Scientific Information Center of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) of Central Asian countries. Completion is scheduled for 2026. Talgat Momyshev, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, noted that the Aral-Syr Darya basin supplies water to over 35% of Kazakhstan’s irrigated land, with 98% of withdrawals going to agriculture. He emphasized the urgency of revising hydro modular zoning, which hasn’t been updated in four decades. “The existing zoning does not account for major changes in climate, soil conditions, and land reclamation status over the past 40 years. A revision is essential,” he said. The Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers are vital for irrigating agricultural land throughout Central Asia. At a November meeting in Ashgabat, ICWC members from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan approved new water distribution quotas for the non-growing season from October 1, 2025, to April 1, 2026. During the non-growing season, water is stored in reservoirs to meet irrigation needs for the following spring and summer. For the Syr Darya River, the total withdrawal quota for this period has been set at 4.219 billion cubic meters, allocated as follows: Uzbekistan: 3.347 billion m³ Kazakhstan: 460 million m³ (via the Dustlik Canal) Tajikistan: 365 million m³ Kyrgyzstan: 47 million m³ In the 2025 growing season, actual usage by country was as follows: Kazakhstan: 644 million m³ (out of a 909 million m³ quota) Uzbekistan: 7.012 billion m³ (of 8.8 billion m³) Tajikistan: 1.454 billion m³ (of 1.9 billion m³) Kyrgyzstan: 191 million m³ (of 270 million m³) The revision effort underscores growing regional cooperation around sustainable water management in one of Central Asia’s most critical river basins.

Water crisis

Russia Revives Plan to Redirect Siberian Rivers as Central Asia Faces Worsening Water Crisis

The long-contested idea of diverting Siberian rivers to Central Asia has re-emerged after the Russian Academy of Sciences announced on November 14 that it is studying a new version of the project. The updated proposal revives elements of a Soviet-era plan from the 1970s and 1980s that aimed to channel water from the Ob River basin to arid regions of Central Asia. This time, however, the focus is on a closed pipeline system, rather than open canals, to transport large volumes of water to countries facing acute shortages, particularly Uzbekistan, according to Fergana News. Discussions within the Russian Academy had reportedly already begun prior to the announcement. Researchers are now calling on Russia’s Ministry of Science and Higher Education to include a full study of the project in its state research plan. They argue that Central Asia is entering a critical phase of water scarcity that demands long-term strategic solutions. The renewed interest comes amid escalating water stress across the region. Rapid population growth, retreating glaciers, and intensifying irrigation demands have pushed existing water systems to their limits. While some view the proposed pipeline as a potential lifeline for stabilizing regional water supplies, environmental concerns remain central to the debate, echoing the very reasons the original project was shelved. A Long History of Controversy The idea of redirecting northern rivers is not new. It was first proposed in the 19th century by Ukrainian-born engineer Yakov Demchenko, who envisioned transferring water from the Ob and Irtysh rivers to replenish the shrinking Aral Sea. In the Soviet period, the concept gained political traction. By the late 1960s, it had entered official planning discussions, prompting detailed studies by the Academy of Sciences, the State Planning Committee, and the Ministry of Water Resources. In 1970, the project was formally designated a state priority, with plans for transferring up to 25 cubic kilometers of water annually. Extensive technical documentation was produced, and construction began on supporting infrastructure, including the Irtysh-Karaganda canal. Designs for the main channel envisioned a span of more than 2,500 kilometers and a capacity exceeding 1,000 cubic meters per second. However, by 1986, the project was halted due to mounting economic pressures, scientific opposition, and growing awareness of potential environmental risks. Experts warned of large-scale flooding, disruptions to groundwater, damage to fish stocks, displacement of Indigenous communities, and unpredictable impacts on permafrost and regional climate systems. Renewed Debate in a Region Under Stress Though shelved in the late Soviet era, the project has resurfaced multiple times since the collapse of the USSR. Former Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov advocated for its revival in 2002, and Russian and Kazakh presidents discussed it publicly in 2010. Yet concerns about environmental and geopolitical ramifications have consistently stalled progress. Meanwhile, the water crisis in Central Asia has only deepened. Glaciers in the Tien Shan and Pamir mountains which feed the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers have shrunk by more than 25% in recent decades. The region’s population has grown to approximately 80 million, nearly 50% higher...

Water crisis

Two Major Reservoirs in Turkmenistan Dry Up Amid Intensifying Drought

Turkmenistan’s Balkan region is facing a deepening drought, with two strategically important reservoirs, Mammetköl and Delili, completely drying up by mid-2025. Both reservoirs, fed by the Etrek (Atrek) River, have vanished from satellite imagery, underscoring the severity of the region’s water crisis. According to meteorological reports, the reservoirs were not replenished during the winter months and rapidly lost their remaining water due to evaporation and filtration. The winter of 2024-2025 was exceptionally dry, and the spring brought no relief. With virtually no inflow from the now-dry Etrek River, the reservoirs were left to evaporate. Mammetköl, built in 1964, had a total volume of 20.5 million cubic meters and a usable capacity of 17.9 million cubic meters. Delili, commissioned in 1970, had a capacity of 5.32 million cubic meters. Both were vital to irrigating farmland and sustaining livestock pastures in the Balkan region. This is not the first time Mammetköl has dried up. During the prolonged drought of 2020-2023, the reservoir emptied in October 2021 and remained largely dry for nearly two years, with only brief periods of partial refilling. A rare flood event in August 2023, triggered by heavy rains in the Atrek’s upper reaches, temporarily restored water levels, but the relief was short-lived. Data from the Etrek weather station show that from January to November 2025, normal precipitation levels were recorded only in February and March. The situation rapidly deteriorated not just in the Etrek basin but across other parts of Turkmenistan as well. Reservoirs and rivers disconnected from the Amu Darya began to show signs of critical depletion in early 2025. The Murghab and Tedzhen rivers also reached dangerously low levels. By mid-year, many artificial reservoirs fed by the Atrek had dried out entirely. In autumn, the drought expanded into the Amu Darya basin, Turkmenistan’s largest and most vital waterway, further exacerbating the national water crisis.

Water crisis

Kyrgyzstan Highlights Water Crisis at FAO’s Rome Water Dialogue

Kyrgyzstan requires $1.2 billion in investment to resolve drinking water supply issues in 960 villages nationwide, Minister of Water Resources, Agriculture, and Processing Industry Bakyt Torobayev announced during the Rome Water Dialogue 2025. The event took place at the headquarters of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in Rome. According to the ministry, Kyrgyzstan has 2,014 villages, but only 796 currently have access to clean drinking water. While pipeline construction is underway in 258 villages, 960 remain without a reliable supply. “If we don’t invest the necessary funds today, restoring the lost potential tomorrow will cost three times as much. It’s time to give water the same level of attention as oil and gas,” Torobayev told the international forum. The minister emphasized that the conservation and rational use of water resources is one of the most urgent challenges in Central Asia. Accelerated climate change and population growth are intensifying water shortages and threatening food security across the region. Torobayev noted that approximately 10 million people in Central Asia still lack access to clean drinking water. He also cited figures showing that 80% of the region’s water infrastructure is outdated, with water losses reaching up to 55%. He underscored the importance of protecting Kyrgyzstan’s mountain glaciers, which serve as critical water sources for major regional rivers that supply neighboring countries, including Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Another urgent issue, according to the minister, is the declining water level in Lake Issyk-Kul, a body of water with regional environmental and climatic significance. “The tragic example of the Aral Sea shows that the loss of natural resources can lead to irreversible consequences. Water security is not only an environmental issue but also a matter of national and global sustainable development,” Torobayev warned.

Water crisis

Tajikistan and Central Asia Face Escalating Water Crisis

Central Asia is emerging as one of the regions most vulnerable to drought, according to the latest Global Drought Outlook published by the United Nations. A Region Under Climate Pressure The report highlights a persistent rise in average annual temperatures, diminishing snow cover, and accelerated glacier retreat, particularly in the mountainous regions of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, as key drivers of water insecurity. “Climate change is accelerating glacier retreat... This poses a long-term threat to the region's water security,” the report states. Tajikistan, which holds over 60% of Central Asia’s glaciers, plays a critical role in the region’s hydrology. Agriculture on the Brink The first sector to suffer from prolonged drought is agriculture, which underpins food security across Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Most agriculture in these countries relies on outdated irrigation systems ill-equipped to handle evolving climate conditions. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global incidence of droughts rose by 29% between 2000 and 2023. In Central Asia, this trend has resulted in declining crop yields, income losses, and forced livestock sales. In Tajikistan’s Khatlon and Sogd regions, farmers experience income drops of 15-30% during dry years. Despite generating more than 60% of the region's freshwater through glaciers and high-altitude rivers, Tajikistan struggles with its own water shortages. Nearly 60% of water is lost due to leakage in dilapidated canals, compounded by inefficient water management. Rural communities are particularly affected, with thousands of families lacking regular access to clean water. Hydropower and Economic Risks Tajikistan relies on hydropower for over 90% of its electricity. However, inconsistent snowfall and prolonged summer droughts have drastically lowered reservoir levels, threatening national energy stability. More than half of the country’s 14,000 kilometers of irrigation canals require modernization. From 2000 to 2016, drought-related economic losses in Central Asia exceeded $2 billion. In 2023 alone, Tajikistan incurred $5.4 million in damages due to power shortages. Droughts are also impacting public health, employment, and migration. Natural disasters annually affect around 1.4 million people in Uzbekistan and 500,000 in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. By 2050, drought-related losses are expected to reach 1.3% of regional GDP annually, with up to five million climate migrants projected. Regional and Global Responses Tajikistan, a signatory to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, is pursuing land restoration and sustainable water management projects. Under the ISCAUZR-2 initiative (Central Asian Initiative on Sustainable Land Management), the country secured nearly $1.5 million to support sustainable agricultural practices. Efforts include the development of fruit tree nurseries, installation of drip irrigation systems, construction of freshwater reservoirs, and deployment of monitoring sensors at water sources. Agroforestry techniques and drought-resistant crop varieties are also being introduced. Despite these initiatives, the region continues to face rising temperatures, Asia has already surpassed a +1.04°C increase and Tajikistan has lost more than 1,000 glaciers. An estimated 10 million people across Central Asia lack sustainable access to safe drinking water. Natural phenomena increasingly compound one another: droughts cause dust storms, which in turn accelerate glacier melt. The UN report warns that without systemic...