Fuel Squeeze Leaves Kyrgyzstan Competing for Costly Alternatives
Kyrgyzstan is moving to secure alternative fuel supplies from China and Belarus as disruptions in Russia’s refining sector expose Bishkek’s dependence on a single supplier. The new arrangements may ease immediate pressure, but they also show how costly and limited Kyrgyzstan’s options remain. First Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Daniyar Amangeldiyev said China has confirmed a contract to supply the first 3,000 tons of jet fuel, while negotiations are under way for an additional 5,000 tons of diesel fuel. The government has also signed agreements with Belarus covering 3,000 tons of jet fuel and approximately 10,000 tons of diesel. On July 1, the Council of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) extended the zero customs duty regime within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) for gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation fuel, marine fuel, and other petroleum products for another year. EEC Minister of Trade Andrey Slepnev said the previous zero rates had expired on June 30 and that proposals from several member states to extend them were quickly coordinated. “The zero rates have been extended for another year,” he said. That buys time but does not remove the main risk. Russian refining disruptions, seasonal demand, and export controls could still reduce the flow of petroleum products to Kyrgyzstan. Imports from alternative suppliers are also likely to come at higher prices and on less favorable terms than those traditionally offered by Moscow. Russia has been Kyrgyzstan’s primary fuel supplier for decades. The country began receiving Russian petroleum products at preferential prices on October 10, 2000, when the prime ministers of Russia and Kyrgyzstan, Mikhail Kasyanov and Amangeldy Muraliev, signed an intergovernmental agreement in Astana governing indirect taxation in bilateral trade. Since then, Kyrgyzstan has received basic petroleum products duty-free at domestic Russian prices. In 2011, then-adviser to the Kyrgyz prime minister Farid Niyazov told the news outlet 24.kg that Russia would supply all petroleum products to Kyrgyzstan indefinitely without export duties, except aviation fuel. “At present, Russia’s export duty on these fuel products is $245 per ton. You can imagine how much we would otherwise have to pay for fuel,” he said. The 2000 bilateral agreement was terminated in 2015 after Kyrgyzstan joined the EAEU. Since then, the country has operated under the union’s common customs rules as well as bilateral agreements with Russia. This has left Kyrgyzstan heavily dependent on a single supplier. According to official statements and industry estimates, more than 90% of the country’s fuel consumption for households and agriculture is currently covered by Russian imports. Despite Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak’s assurances that domestic fuel reserves remain sufficient, shortages began to emerge in Russia in early June. Russia has since moved to tighten exports further as refinery disruptions have continued. As a result, Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers has begun searching for alternative suppliers while introducing daily monitoring of existing fuel deliveries. Rising gasoline and diesel prices had already prompted the government to introduce temporary state regulation of motor fuel prices in late May. It has since rolled...
