Tajikistan Features - The Times Of Central Asia

Viewing results 31 - 36 of 512

Extreme Heat

Extreme Heat Buckles Roads and Strains Power Grids Across Central Asia

Extreme heat across Central Asia in mid-July has buckled concrete highways, pushed electricity demand to record levels, and increased pressure on power grids and ambulance services. Kazakhstan reported road deformation and repeated failures in Almaty, Uzbekistan set consumption and generation records, Kyrgyzstan introduced temporary cuts to protect equipment, and residents in Tajikistan reported local disruptions. Temperatures above 40°C are common in parts of the region, but prolonged heat can strain several systems at once. Demand for cooling rises, road surfaces reach damaging temperatures, and health risks increase. The World Bank says much of Central Asia’s infrastructure was built in the mid-20th century and is overdue for renewal. Kazakhstan’s Roads and Power Networks Struggle Almaty recorded daily temperature highs on three consecutive days. The temperature reached 38°C on July 16, 39.2°C on July 17, and 40°C on July 18. The city’s July record remains 43.4°C, set in 1983. The heat also damaged Kazakhstan’s road network. KazAvtoZhol found temperature-related deformation on six highway sections in the Zhambyl, Pavlodar, and Turkestan regions. The national road operator said concrete surfaces can reach 60 to 70°C, and sometimes higher, during extreme weather. The resulting internal stress can deform concrete slabs. More than 50 workers repaired the affected sections, and traffic continued without restrictions. Road crews were monitoring more than 1,600 kilometers of concrete highway. Almaty’s ambulance service received more than 33,600 calls during the first two weeks of July. Medical officials said many involved sudden spikes in blood pressure and cardiovascular conditions, including coronary heart disease and acute heart attacks. Stroke patients were taken to hospital. Officials advised residents to avoid direct sunlight between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m., drink sufficient fluids, and seek medical help if their condition deteriorated. The city’s electricity network has faced record electricity demand between July 17 and 20 as residents increased their use of air conditioners and other appliances. The Alatau Zharyk Company said technical failures occurred in several districts, sometimes followed by faults on neighboring sections of the network. Thirty-five repair crews were deployed around the clock. The pressure extended beyond Almaty. Kazakhstan consumed 338.66 million kilowatt-hours of electricity on July 14, while domestic generation totaled 314.27 million kilowatt-hours, according to KOREM electricity data. Consumption also exceeded generation on each of the previous three days. Kazakhstan has historically covered such shortfalls through electricity imports, principally from Russia. Record Electricity Demand in Uzbekistan Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Energy warned on July 13 that daily electricity consumption could reach a summer record of 280 million kilowatt-hours, with peak demand rising to between 13 and 13.3 gigawatts. Demand subsequently exceeded that forecast. On July 18, consumption reached 294.4 million kilowatt-hours, 8% above the previous summer record. Peak evening demand rose to 13.7 gigawatts. Power plants produced a record 297.1 million kilowatt-hours on the same day. Despite the increase in production, technical faults caused temporary outages in several districts of Tashkent. At different times, the disruptions affected between several hundred and 2,700 consumers, according to the Ministry of Energy. Supplies were later restored....

Women's Employment

Nearly Half of Young Women in Tajikistan Are Not Working or Studying, Survey Finds

New results from Tajikistan’s 2025 Labor Force Survey point to persistent structural weaknesses in the country’s labor market. Although the official unemployment rate remains relatively low, labor force participation is limited, particularly among women and young people. Of the country’s 6.87 million people aged 15–75, 3.02 million are in the labor force, producing a participation rate of 43.9%. The rate is 57.1% among men and 30.9% among women, a gap of 26.2 percentage points. The World Bank previously described Tajikistan’s labor force participation rate as the lowest in Central Asia. The official unemployment rate is 6.3%, but the survey’s expanded measure of labor underutilization presents a less favorable picture. This measure includes unemployed people and the potential labor force, as well as those experiencing time-related underemployment. On this basis, the rate rises to 11.7%. Among women, it approaches 14%. The survey also shows a gradual shift in where employed people live. The urban share of employment increased from 20% in 2004 to 28.4% in 2025, but 71.6% of employed people still live in rural areas. That figure demonstrates the rural concentration of employment, although it does not by itself show how many people work in agriculture. Separately, the World Bank estimates that agriculture employs more than 40% of Tajikistan’s labor force. The findings on young people are particularly stark. Among those aged 15–24, nearly 27% are not in education, employment or training (NEET). The rate is 40.1% among young women, compared with 13.2% among young men. The gender divide is even wider among those aged 15–29. In this group, 45% of women are neither employed nor pursuing education or training, compared with 12.4% of men. The figures suggest that Tajikistan’s main labor-market challenge is not fully captured by the conventional unemployment rate. People who are not working but are neither actively seeking employment nor immediately available to start work are generally not counted as unemployed. Low participation and high NEET rates therefore reveal pressures that the headline unemployment figure does not. Women and young people account for much of this unused labor potential. Expanding their access to employment will be especially important as the country’s working-age population grows. The World Bank estimates that about 600,000 young people will enter Tajikistan’s labor force over the coming decade and that the economy will need to generate approximately 1.4 million jobs during that period. It also describes the country’s economy as heavily dependent on the export of low-skilled labor and the remittances those workers send home. These concerns are reflected in the World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Framework for Tajikistan for fiscal years 2026–2032. The strategy prioritizes a better-skilled and healthier workforce, along with increased private investment. It also seeks to create more and better jobs and calls for measures to raise labor force participation, particularly among women and young people. In May, the World Bank approved the Tajikistan Women’s Economic Empowerment Project. The initiative is expected to create 3,450 jobs and help 850 women-owned or women-led businesses gain access to financial services. It...

External Debt

The Central Asia Debt Divide: Why the Region’s Borrowing Risks Are Not the Same

Central Asia’s biggest debtor is not necessarily its most vulnerable. Kazakhstan accounts for roughly two-thirds of the region’s external liabilities, but much of that debt sits on corporate balance sheets rather than the government’s. Tajikistan owes a fraction of the amount, yet remains at high risk of debt distress. The contrast highlights the Central Asia debt divide. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rely more heavily on sovereign and concessional borrowing, while Uzbekistan’s external liabilities are now split almost evenly between the public and corporate sectors. Based on the latest available figures from national authorities and international financial institutions, the combined external debt of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan approached $275 billion in early 2026. Turkmenistan has not been included in the estimate because the country does not publish comprehensive official external debt statistics that can be directly compared with those of its regional neighbors. The total is an approximate calculation compiled from national statistics rather than a regional aggregate published by a single institution. The countries also release their debt data for different reporting dates and use different classifications, requiring caution when making direct comparisons. Total external debt includes obligations owed to non-residents by governments, central banks, commercial banks, private companies, and, in some countries, local subsidiaries of foreign corporations. Government external debt is a narrower measure covering liabilities that are directly serviced or guaranteed by the state. China remains an important bilateral creditor, particularly in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, while multilateral institutions provide much of the region’s infrastructure and public-sector financing. Kyrgyzstan: Rising Debt, but a Broader Creditor Base Kyrgyzstan’s public debt has risen alongside increased infrastructure spending and domestic borrowing, although its creditor base has become more diversified. A smaller share is now owed to a single bilateral lender, while multilateral financing and the domestic securities market have grown in importance. According to the Kyrgyz Ministry of Finance’s public debt data, the country’s total public debt stood at approximately $8.94 billion as of May 31, 2026, including around $6.1 billion in external obligations. The debt debate has also become part of President Sadyr Japarov’s broader economic narrative. In an interview with the Kabar national news agency published on October 8, 2025, Japarov said his government was continuing to borrow but argued that new loans were being directed toward commercial projects expected to repay their own financing rather than place an additional burden on the state budget. He also said Kyrgyzstan intended to repay its older debts by 2035. The International Monetary Fund said in its 2026 Article IV consultation that Kyrgyzstan had recorded strong economic growth for a fourth consecutive year, giving the authorities an opportunity to strengthen fiscal buffers and accelerate structural reforms. It also warned that the outlook remained exposed to significant downside risks. Kazakhstan: A Large External Debt, but a Different Risk Profile Kazakhstan accounts for the largest share of Central Asia’s external debt, but its headline figure can be misleading. Unlike several of its neighbors, the country’s external liabilities are dominated by corporate and intercompany borrowing rather...

Electricity Shortages

Tajikistan Prepares for Another Winter Power Shortfall

Tajikistan is preparing for another autumn and winter in which electricity demand may outstrip supply. Network losses have fallen, and investment in hydropower continues, but officials say the seasonal imbalance between generation and consumption will persist. Mahmadumar Asozoda, chairman of state-owned power company Barki Tojik, said the imbalance would persist through the colder months. Asked whether electricity rationing would return, he did not rule it out. Tajikistan generates almost all of its electricity from hydropower, leaving supply tied to seasonal river flows. Output rises during the warmer months, when the country can meet domestic demand and export surplus electricity. In winter, river flows decline as electricity use increases for heating, creating a recurring shortfall. To cover part of the winter shortfall, Tajikistan plans to import electricity from Uzbekistan again. The two countries use a seasonal exchange: Uzbekistan supplies power in autumn and winter, and Tajikistan returns an equivalent volume during summer. Tajikistan imported 306 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) last winter, down from 350 million kWh a year earlier. Asozoda said the countries expect to sign a new agreement before the next autumn-winter season. Imports can ease the shortage, but they do not remove Tajikistan's dependence on hydropower or the winter drop in output. The seasonal arrangement with Uzbekistan gives Tajikistan access to power when domestic generation is lowest. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan has signed a 20-year agreement to buy electricity from Tajikistan. Deliveries are expected to depend on additional generating capacity at the Rogun Hydropower Plant. The Nurek Reservoir stood at 888.21 meters on July 13, but Energy and Water Resources Minister Daler Juma said Tajikistan was experiencing low water levels. The country has reduced electricity exports and is retaining more water in its reservoirs for winter. Losses in the electricity system fell during the first half of 2026. At Barki Tojik's generating facilities, losses were 0.32% of output, down 0.07 percentage points from a year earlier. Losses in high-voltage transmission networks fell to 2.96%, while distribution losses dropped from 17.93% to 12.42%. Barki Tojik generated 8.89 billion kWh during the period, 2.7 million kWh less than in the first half of 2025. Hydropower plants supplied 7.93 billion kWh, while thermal plants produced 964 million kWh. The utility also bought 2.7 billion kWh from independent producers in Tajikistan and abroad, with Sangtuda-1 supplying 1.48 billion kWh. Rogun and Sangtuda-2 supplied 667.2 million kWh and 474.2 million kWh, respectively. Demand continues to rise as Tajikistan's population grows and industrial production expands, President Emomali Rahmon said in December 2025. The World Bank expects Rogun to help meet domestic needs and reduce recurring winter cuts. Rahmon has said rationing should end in 2027, when the third generating unit is scheduled to enter service, although the World Bank projects full completion in 2033. For the coming winter, Tajikistan is conserving reservoir water and arranging imports from Uzbekistan, but Asozoda's comments leave open the possibility of renewed rationing.

Forestry

Tajikistan Turns to Satellites to Discover How Much Forest It Has Left

In Barvoz village in the Western Pamirs, Zarifkhon Gulchinov watched a green forest near his home become a semi-desert during the 1990s. The collapse of the Soviet Union and Tajikistan’s civil war left the isolated region short of electricity and coal. Families cut trees to heat their homes and cook. “I also went to the forest for firewood, but I cut down only old and dry trees and bushes,” Gulchinov recalled. He later joined a community forestry program and received five hectares of degraded land to restore. Villagers now plant hundreds of trees and protect young growth from livestock. They also maintain an irrigation canal fed by mountain water. Such places explain why a forest inventory is more than a technical count. A strip of trees can supply fuel or hay. It can also hold a riverbank together and shield fields from erosion. Yet Tajikistan has spent decades without a reliable national picture of where its forests remain or what condition they are in. Counting What the Country Has On July 15, Deputy Forestry Agency Director Davlatali Sharifzoda announced a national inventory using satellite images and field inspections. The work will cover forests under every form of ownership, and its results will support ten-year management plans for each state forestry enterprise. Local coverage has described the exercise as Tajikistan’s first complete forest inventory using satellite data. A World Bank project appraisal says the country last conducted a national inventory in 1990. The current exercise is therefore the first nationwide inventory since independence and the first to use modern mapping methods across the country. The inventory combines Sentinel-2 and RapidEye images with geographic information systems. Machine-learning tools classify forest types, while mobile laser scanners can create three-dimensional models of tree stands. Field teams will still visit selected plots to measure tree diameter and height, and count the number of trees in each area. Their observations will show whether the satellite classifications match conditions on the ground. The work is being carried out by Aerogeodesy Dushanbe and Austria’s Umweltdaten GmbH through the World Bank-backed Tajikistan Resilient Landscape Restoration Project. A June progress update said the team carrying out the inventory had been appointed and work was underway. The project is due to close on September 30, 2027. Why the Numbers Diverge Tajikistan has long been described as one of Central Asia’s least forested countries. The figure most often used is about 3% of the national territory, or roughly 420,000 hectares. The World Bank has also noted that land administered by the Forestry Agency covers a much larger area, but much of that land is pasture rather than forest. Preliminary satellite work has now put forest cover at about 4.7%. The higher estimate does not mean that Tajikistan suddenly gained trees. Better mapping may be capturing sparse woodland and remote areas missed by older records. The final inventory should also separate actual forest cover from land that belongs to the state forest fund but carries little or no tree cover. That distinction affects...

Urban Development

Urbanization: Only One in Four Tajik Residents Lives in a City

While its regional neighbors are increasingly undergoing urbanization, Tajikistan remains a predominantly rural country and the gap with the rest of Central Asia on this indicator is one of the most notable in the post-Soviet space. The Lowest Rate in the Region As of mid-2026, Tajikistan’s urban population stands at 27.98%, in other words, only slightly more than one in four residents of the country lives in a city. For comparison with the rest of the region: in Kazakhstan, the urban population is around 59%; in Turkmenistan, around 52%; in Uzbekistan, around 50%; and in neighboring Kyrgyzstan, roughly 38%. Against this backdrop, Tajikistan remains the country with the lowest level of urbanization in all of Central Asia and one of the few in the world where the rural population still makes up nearly three-quarters of the total. Why This Happened Tajikistan’s low pace of urbanization is largely explained by the structure of the country’s economy and the everyday life of a significant part of its population. Unlike states where industry, the services sector, and major urban agglomerations have long become the main centers of employment, Tajikistan still retains a notable dependence on agriculture. For many families, the village remains not only a place of residence but also the basis of income: people are engaged in farming, seasonal work, small local businesses, or rely on a household that provides the family with food and partial employment. In Kyrgyzstan, rural areas also play an important role in the economy and settlement patterns, however, in Tajikistan this feature is more pronounced. The country remains one of the most rural in Central Asia in terms of settlement patterns and employment structure. Against this background, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan present a different picture. In Uzbekistan, a significant share of the urban population is concentrated around major centers, primarily Tashkent, whose population has already exceeded 3 million. In Turkmenistan, Ashgabat plays an important role, as do territories linked to the oil and gas industry, where economic activity has traditionally been more closely tied to urban and industrial zones. The Region Is Moving Toward Cities Central Asia as a whole continues to urbanize rapidly, with cities continuing to hoover up people and capital. According to the Eurasian Development Bank, the region’s urban population is expected to increase from 39 million to 45 million by 2035, driven largely by internal migration as people move from rural areas in search of higher incomes and better infrastructure. Today, nearly half of Central Asia’s population, about 49%, already lives in the region’s major urban centers, making urbanization one of the defining forces behind its economic transformation. The expansion of cities, however, also brings mounting pressure on social infrastructure – from housing to schools and hospitals. For many urban centers, the challenge is no longer simply accommodating more residents but ensuring an acceptable quality of life. As a result, urbanization is increasingly viewed as a long-term test of governments’ capacity to plan sustainable urban development. A similar conclusion appears in a United Nations...